Red Sox Reality Check

A keen sense of the obvious reveals what all of us know, the Red Sox relief pitching is killing them. The Sox are 12th overall in pitching (ahead of powers Tampa and KC), 13th in relief pitching, and last in ERA (5.67) in 'close and late' situations, as well as 12th from innings seven to nine. Looking deeper, we see they are 12th in relief strikeouts per nine innings, 11th in bullpen K/BB ratio, and 13th in OPS. They are only 10th in blown saves, because they are last in save opportunities. They are 11th in save percentage. Why all the whining about the ineffectual bullpen? Obviously, over the long haul, strength up the middle wins championships, whether it's basketball (Duncan, Shaq), football (Brady et al.), baseball, checkers, or chess. What options does Theo Epstein have? We have heard that the trade market is lean, and several circumstances argue against trading the young stud arms (Papelbon, Lester, Sanchez, Rozier, Alvarez). First, with so many teams in contention, t...

The Red Sox played an excruciating baseball game tonight against the Cleveland Indians. The Sox continually battled back, only to have 'gasoline alley' light up the Tribe as Keith 'Truck' Foulke continues to struggles. Foulke seems to have lost his release point, as his customary pinpoint control vanished, resulting in the Clevelanders rallying from an 8-5 deficit on his watched, capped off by a Travis Hafner Slam (called by me) breaking an 8-8 deadlock in the ninth. In addition to having command issues, Foulke's normal 87 mph fastball drifted down to 83-85 mph, just a shade ahead of batting practice velocity. The Sox remain without a reliable closer, as perhaps Foulke needs anoth trip to Birmingham for a tuneup. Hey, we don't care if he's going for medical treatment, mechanical evaluation, or acupuncture, just let something work. To make matters a bit worse, the Sox went meekly in the ninth, going out 1-2-3 on three pitches. Goodbye ballgame, hello sandwich...

"You're never as good as you look when you win, or as bad as you look when you lose." Res ipsa loquitur* . The Sox and Phillies exchanged Alphonse and Gaston routines today, as each attempted to give away the game, before the Phillies succeeded, losing 12-8 to the Sox. The Sox continued to knock the ball around and out of the park, with three more homers, including ones by Mark Bellhorn (5), Manny Ramirez (19), and Jason Varitek (13). Ramirez is a remarkable case, near the league lead in RBI and homers, and now in the top 10 in OPS (.914), despite seeming to struggle for most of the year. He also had his league-leading 10th outfield assist. Ironically, it was 'small ball' that ignited the 8th inning rally as Johnny Damon laid down a perfect drag bunt against Rheal Cormier. Baseball fans will remember that portsiders have a natural follow-through to the third base side, making fielding drag bunts more difficult. Relief pitching, thy name is inconsistency, with Davi...

When you're riding, only the race in which you're riding is important. -Bill Shoemaker The Red Sox achieved a number of milestones this week, claiming first place and going over the .500 mark on the road. Meanwhile, their chief AL East Division rivals the Orioles and Yankees hit some bumps in the road. The Orioles had already been without their ace Eric Bedard, and now Bruce Chen develops pitching lameness. Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers do the unthinkable, losing 3 of 4 at home to the D-Rays and then two more to crosstown rivals the Mets. Short memories create long careers. The last game, inning, at-bat, or free throw become indelible history, with focus required on today's contest. Whether in sports or stock trading, yesterday's events can't have carry-through on today's performance for long-term success. The Sox have shown considerable resilience in harnessing adversity and from the catbird's seat, they have the opportunity to perform looking over their col...

Matt Mantei gets celebrated for his 'electric' stuff. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Mantei has plus velocity and a sharp-breaking curveball. However... Aside from general ineffectiveness, Mantei came into today's action with 24 innings pitched, 18 walks, and 4 hit batsmen in 89 batters faced. He hit one batter in three faced today. He's hit three left-handed batters this season already, not easy for a right-hander with a tailing fastball. Does Matt Mantei have 'Steve Blass Disease' or at least some variant? Blass was an effective pitcher for the Pirates who developed the inability to throw the ball over the plate or even remotely where he wanted it. Numerous players have suffered from the condition since. Off the top of my head, I can think of Mackey Sasser, Steve Sax, Chuck Knoblauch, Matt Young (throwing to bases), Mark Wohlers , and Rick Ankiel . I suppose that strictly speaking, only pitchers can have Blass Disease, but let's be l...

I've reviewed in the past the very old data about the QUALITY START being a useful statistic. Simply, quality starts result in about 70 percent winning percentage, and probably higher on a good hitting team. Among the top 30 pitchers in quality starts, Chicago has 4 (Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, and Contreras), Detroit has 4, Boston has 3 (Clement, Arroyo, Wakefield), the Angels have 3, Baltimore has 2, New York has 2, Texas has 1. Quality start leaders in the AL (top 5) are Kenny Rogers, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Jarod Washburn, and Matt Clement, the first three with 12 and the last two with 11. Collectively their record is 41 and 12. The top five in ERA are Rogers, Bartolo Colon, Halladay, Buerhle, and Chris Young with a collective record of 44-16. The top five in WHIP ratio are Santana, Halladay, Buehrle, Garland, and Garcia. Collective record 46-13. Top five in strikeouts are Santana, Halladay, Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, and Clement. Record 42-17. The top five in K/BB ratio ar...

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/06/23/his_numbers_are_in_the_ballpark/ Good for Eric. Eric probably doesn't remember me, but we attended college together back in the Dark Ages, when you could get a pizza at Harvard Pizza for 99 cents. A good pizza, too, tasty with some orange soda. Numbers are just one of the reasons fans love baseball. Peyton Manning set an NFL record this year throwing X touchdowns. We remember Hank Aaron (755), Ruth (714), and even Mays (660). Statistics are just ingrained as a huge part of the analysis of baseball.

I don't know Manny Ramirez, but watching him play baseball, he looks pretty happy. Yes, he makes some errors, and some baserunning FUBARs, but he also has a lot of outfield assists and has been ripping the baseball lately. So you say, he makes 20 MILLION DOLLARS. Mucho dinero, a lotta dollars, serious bling. Is that his fault? Realistically, there isn't any baseball player who earns that kind of money annually, but it isn't just the stars who produce 100 dollar tickets, but the high cost of mediocrity. I'd guess that every Sox fan in New England would have chipped in 10 bucks to pay Manny if we could be guaranteed the championship. Heck, I got the Sox 2005 jacket, T-shirts, Red Sox Monopoly, a couple of hats, NESN on cable. Feeling like Ben Wrightman? What would Manny have to do to earn 20 million? Hit .400, 50 homers and 150 RBI, All-Star, Gold Glove and MVP? Sign 1000 autographs a day, 5000, sing the National Anthem, come to your house for hot dogs and beans? Come on,...

Can you fix this mess, Theo? http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/bride/think.wav Tito tells Dave Wallace to warm up the pen. http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/goodbad.wav http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/holy/dead.wav Does Jason Varitek think this when the pen pals are coming in? http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/vacat/crazy.wav Sox fans talk to Alan Embree before a recent outing. http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/donotgo.wav Can the Sox win with this bullpen? http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/dumb/notgood.wav Enemy batters hear the relief corp is coming in. http://www.garnersclassics.com/wavs/mkmydy.wav

Beldar Conehead : If I did not fear incarceration of human authority figures I bring pressure to your blunt skull and cause it to collapse! A pharmaceutical representative came in today with a legitimate concern, ticket scalping. She and her husband (a longtime Pirate fan) had tried to get tickets for the weekend series with the Bucs. Although they couldn't get tickets, scalpers had handfuls, asking 100 dollars pregame and 75 in the third inning. Being sensible people, they passed and went home disappointed after stopping in a nearby pub. She noticed the scalper came into the pub with 'fistfuls of money' as though he were a drug dealer (obviously she hadn't read Steve Levitt's book Freakonomics and its evaluation of the economics of drug dealing). Recently a Sox fan living in Pittsburgh (caller from sports radio) noted that his tickets (purchased from EBAY) were confiscated by the ticket scanner as EBAY resale isn't permitted. So, if you want to get Sox tickets,...

Last evening's exhibition showed the fickleness of the baseball gods, as they turned the proverbial 'laugher' into a white-knuckler by the names of Embree and Foulke. Embree appeared to be throwing the ball better (although arrow-straight) and Foulke, who had pitched far better recently, had nothing, no velocity, no location, and no duende. He did preserve the victory, however. On the scale of good wins to bad losses, somehow this felt a lot closer to the bad loss spectrum. That makes no sense in any normal reality, because 'a win is a win'. There was no palpable injury or loss, but only unnerving psychic energy dispensed. As we are almost at the halfway point in the season, perhaps we should call out the Professor, and ask him for a progress report if not a full report card. The stipulation about the grading is that it occurs on an absolute scale, not relative to the players' historical norm. Catchers: Varitek--- A the most important player on the ...

What words best describe Sox fans? Passionate, loyal, obsessed, angry, insatiable? Last year the Sox did the unthinkable but possible, actually won the whole enchilada. At times, it seems as though we're back to square one, led of course, by critical works like my 'panic button' picture, the daily flaying of Edgar Renteria by much of the sports radio rabble, and our latest whipping boys, Alan Embree and Jay Payton. Embree, to his credit, acknowledges that he's underachieved. Payton just wants to play. Embree has a pretty fair post-season track record and done poorly in relief this year. Payton has a more mediocre dossier but has performed admirably off the bench. Let's spread the wealth, with our 'wish list' Jason Varitek - just lay off the high, hard ones. Kevin Millar - if you have to carry the piano while running, don't play it Mark Bellhorn - contact...think contact Edgar Renteria - don't listen to these nitwits, just have fun Bill Mueller -...

The Sox won behind erstwhile ace Matt Clement, who moved to 8-1, 3.48 as he makes a bid for an All-Star berth. Sidelights included two hits and a walk from Trot Nixon, leading off in place of an injured Johnny Damon, and two hits and a homer from malcontent Jay Payton, who has performed well in limited duty (.328/.459/.787) and .500/.923/1.423 the past week. Alan Embree starred in 2 innings of 'Dawn of the Dead' with three strikeouts and no walks, in a 'Baby Steps' move in from the gangplank. Reality Check. The Sox remain three games back behind the Orioles, who are rumored to be discussing dealing for Andy Pettitte for Jorge Julio and Jay Gibbons. The O's have full coffers from the spoils delivered by MLB via the Washington Nationals and continue to play good baseball. The Sox are 1/2 game behind the Twins in the Wild Card race, and 1/2 a game ahead of both Texas and (huh?) the Tribe. The Yankees are two games back having gotten well after playing the Pirates and t...

The good news: my wife and I went out to see Revenge of the Sith instead of staying home to watch the Sox-Pirates. The bad news: heard the collapse of the pen ending the five game winning streak solution. Solutions? Letterman must have answer 10) Alan Embree to take over for Alan Greenspan 9) Hey Jay Payton, wanna pitch? 8) Theo, it's okay for you to take one for the team on the bullpen. 7) Craig Hansen, wipe that Cheshire cat smile off your face. 6) Ditto Scott Boras 5) Jeremi Gonzalez can't do any worse than Halama. Really. 4) Come on Tim, you got a few more pitches in you. 3) Move the wall back a few feet. 2) We got Cla-mation for the Nation. 1) Bring back Dave McCarthy

Coming off of a World Series Championship, we have to love everything about the Red Sox, right? I'm sure you have a couple of 'sore points' about the Sox, Fenway, and the Ballpark Experience. Add 'em. 1. Concessions. A friend went to Fenway this week and bought four waters, high quality H2O. Total $17.00. The commodity of the 21st century. A bleacher ticket to Game 1, 1975 Reds at Red Sox cost me $4.50. Still got the stub. 2. Obstructed view seats. Nice picture in The Globe yesterday. "Well, nobody holds a gun to your head to buy the seats." Caveat emptor. 3. Boorish fan behavior. No matter where you sit, it seems that there is always an obnoxious, cursing, drunken fan no farther than three sheets, er seats, away. That's a fact, Jack. 'They' say that Fenway is doing a better job policing this behavior. Didn't work for my daughter and me last September 24, 2004, when the ushers took away the drunks in the eighth inning. 4. Imperial attitudes. Ba...

One of the worst elements of baseball is the constant matchup manipulation in the late innings with mediocre pitchers substituting for other mediocre pitchers to face mediocre hitters. This continuation of the LaRussa Doctrine, inspired by such 'great' relievers as Darold Knowles lives on. Meanwhile fans die of old age and new fans disappear with boredom. Or course, it often works, like tonight. Instant replay in baseball may never come, but plays like tonight's drop of a double play ball deserves replay. "It destroys the flow of the game," the purity of the game. Not as much as the constant substitution of relief pitchers. Jay Payton grouses because he's not getting enough face time, i.e. at bats. Payton's a valuable guy to have on a team, runs well, and has some pop. Granted he had 28 homers at Colorado in 2003, a feat that didn't even get him resigned at Coors. Reality Check absolutely wants every major league player to want everyday action. Payton...

Which current and former Sox players have Hall of Fame credentials yet aren't in the pantheon of stars at Cooperstown? On the mound, it's impossible to overlook Pedro Martinez , the best pitcher of his generation, albeit without the durability and numbers of Roger Clemens . If I had to win one game, Pedro in his prime was the guy. Luis Tiant remains deserving, but I wonder whether Luis will ever get there. He played for some bad teams and doesn't get as much credit as he would have had the Sox won the series in his era. Curt Schilling had a slow career start and has had a gangbusters finish. The black and grey ink stats at www.baseball-reference.com plus his postseason heroics (bloody sock not included) argue that he's going to Cooperstown, 200 wins or not. I'm a closet Dwight Evans guy whose defense and second half of his career gets him in. Unfortunately, the first years of his career drag his candidacy down, and Dewey's probably going to have to be content ...

Amidst the 'Moneyball' teams, Boston, Toronto (Ricciardi), Los Angeles (DePodesta), and Oakland (Beane) we note variable success. The Sox (and a lot of cash) validated the concept last season, Toronto is good for their payroll, the Dodgers are competitive, and Beane, er, pulls up the rear. BUT, I ask are the Sox as 'interesting' taking a lot of pitches, getting on base via the walk, wearing out the starter, and hoping for the three-run homer? Winning is everything, and I wouldn't trade the World Series title for 240 homers and losing, but I hope that the Sox are developing more complete players in the minors. Last night Ted Sarandis expressed great reservation about the talents of Millar and Bellhorn, to name two starters. They aren't great players, and you don't buy great talent for 'shoestring' salaries (wouldn't I like to live on theirs, each over ten times mine). They do what they do. They play adequate defense, get on base, and contribute. Y...

Before we have any more naming ceremonies at Fenway, maybe it's time for a simple monument to remember Victoria Snelgrove. If her family found it appropriate and desired, maybe a small plaque somewhere inside the ballpark would be fitting. The plaque could be dedicated in a private ceremony, away from the bright lights that surround everything Boston Red Sox. Tragedies like this young girl's recur because we forget too easily. Nothing like this should ever happen again.

The Red Sox swept the Cincinnati Reds behind outstanding starting pitching from Bronson Arroyo, and relief efforts from Mike Timlin and Keith Foulke. Arroyo (5-3, 4.26) had eight strikeouts, yielding six hits, two walks, and one run in seven innings. Timlin pitched the eighth, and Foulke fanned the side in the ninth. Offensively, the Sox banged out another ten hits, with two apiece by Renteria, Ortiz, and Ramirez. Johnny Damon and Edgar Renteria each scored two runs, and Ortiz had 3 RBI with 2 for Mueller. Worth noting. Mark Bellhorn fanned once tonight, his 71st in 61 games. Bellhorn has now struck out in over 30% of his at-bats. Still, he has an on-base percentage of over .350 and continues to play steady defense. Last year Bellhorn's Win Shares stats produced All-Star numbers (really) and I keep rooting for him to turn it around. I have never seen a player swing and miss more often. At the other extreme, Kevin Youkilis strikes out only 8% of his at-bats and Johnny Damon 9.4%. Yo...