Red Sox Reality Check

NESN just had a replay of an early April 2004 game against Toronto, Curt Schilling's first home start. The Sox won in extra innings. So what? The Sox infield had Bill Mueller at third, Felipe Crespo at short, Mark Bellhorn at second, and David McCarty at first. Gabe Kapler was in center, and the last two Sox pitchers were Bobby Jones (the walk ace) and Mark (rhymes with Alaska) Malaska. The Sox won on a David Ortiz walkoff homer in extra innings. If the Sox could win with that lineup, then anything is possible. _____________________________________________ Nothing new on the J.D. Drew watch, although we can imagine that his shoulder MRI isn't normal... Injuries can occur from narrowing of the space between the rotator cuff elements and the bone (impingement), rotator cuff tendon degeneration, or injury secondary to trauma. A brief but informative review of the shoulder stabilizing system is referenced here . You too can talk about shoulder pathology, and know the labrum from a ...

With a lot of time on our hands, and not much news, let's think back to 'signature' moments in current (and recent) Sox players' careers. Jason Varitek provides reliable if often unspectacular play behind the plate. In the 2003 playoff series against Oakland, Varitek blocked the plate and ultimately tagged out Eric Byrnes. Sure, Varitek has had some walkoff homer action and a game-tying homer against Seattle (if I recall correctly), but I'll always remember his defense first. Kevin Youkilis had the ninth inning two runner homer against Detroit last season to help the Sox win. I'm hoping that we don't hear too much of Youkilis behaving badly (surly) off the field to diminish his potential contributions on it. Manny Ramirez has had a lot of moments, but I think his first inning homer off Jeff Suppan in Game 3 of the 2004 series was his greatest moment. Suppan just pulled down 42 million for 4 years, making Manny's contract look cheap. Coco Crisp played hur...

With Matsuzaka and Okajima aboard, and who knows about the future, maybe it's time to start some Japanese-English baseball 'talk'. I'm going to import directly from a number of sites, especially here . banto: bunt batta: batter besuboru: baseball boru: ball chenji appu: change-up pitch daburu pure: double play era: error foa boru: four ball; a walk foku boru: fork ball furu besu: full bases; bases loaded gattsu pozu: guts pose; hot-dogging Japanese-style. After hitting a home run, a batter may punch the air with his fist, thereby striking the gattsu pozu homuran: home run kyatcha: catcher (also called hoshu) manrui homa: grand slam home run maundo: pitchers mound manrui homa: grand slam home run maundo: pitchers mound pure boru: "Play ball!" sanshin: strikeout sayonara homuran: a game-winning home run sebu: a save shuto: a variation on the screwball that is popular among Japanese pitchers suitchi hitta: switch hitter sutoraiku: a strike sutoreto: straight ball...

At ESPN Insider, Peter Gammons talks about the support system available to Matsuzaka, as well as the "mean-spirited" Boston fans and a media which hopes for the latest Japanese import to fail. He also points out that the Red Sox are likely to sign Chan Ho Park (as possible closer), and that Manny Ramirez WILL be the Sox leftfielder this season. As for the worst signing of the winter, "the Commissioner" notes the Royals signing of Gil Meche. He also does a post-mortem on the Mets' Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano deal, on the presumption that "little guys can't play." The Sox acquire Brendan Donnelly from the Angels. Of note is Donnelly's number one comp on the "similarity scores" hit list, Scott Linebrink, for whom the Sox seemed to have lusted. For whatever reason, Phil Seibel didn't seem to be in favor, so he'll get a fresh start on the left coast. For those who are wringing their hands about the absence of a closer, I'd...

It appears that the deal for Daisuke Matsuzaka is done. Time for the Berlitz courses to begin and the translation sites will prosper. But at Reality Check, we are also about 'giving back'. So here's some key hints for the Dice guy as he heads to Boston. Hire a driver. Why let the one way streets and rotaries make you crazy when you can easily afford quality transportation? Don't bother to learn much English. Whatever you do, DO NOT read Dan Shaughnessy or Gerry Callahan. Don't listen to sports radio. Listen to Jason Varitek. He's an honorable catcher. What about Mirabelli? Don't worry, you won't pitch to him much. Don't carry a lot of cash. Let the riff-raff (everybody but you) pick up the tab. Think about investing your 401-K with guys like Henry. He really does know something about money. Do not spend too much time with "Baseball Annies." Ask around Fenway about a guy named Derek. Don't forget about your Japanese baseball experience. ...

The news highlight since the predetermined signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo was Jason Varitek's appearance at a Celtics' game last week. And with the ticket prices in Boston these days, one wonders whether you have to be a multimillionaire to attend a game. Meanwhile, back at the non-negotiation table, the rumor is that Scott Boras, Daisuke Matsuzaka's agent, has never made a counter-offer to the Sox' original lowball offer, whatever that was (greater than the GDP of Haiti). Or as the joke goes, "what's the difference between Scott Boras and a terrorist?" You can negotiate with terrorists. If Matsuzaka's currently pulling in about 2.5 million (whatever that may be in yen), then not negotiating for a sum twenty times higher over about four years wouldn't make most players confuse Boras with Einstein, or even Steven Hawking. In fact, that might make Jody Reed's agent look less absurd (you may recall that Reed turned down a king's ransom o...

Signs that the end of the world is at hand - Jason Schmidt gets 47M/3 and writers say "bargain" Ted Lilly gets 40M/4 Rangers will pay Zito "whatever it takes" New Orleans Saints lineman banned for asthma medicine (?) Julio Lugo gets 36M/4 ROY Hanley Ramirez gets the minimum Carlos Lee can tell Warren Buffett he's a piker Mariners try to dump Beltre and Sexson on Sox for Manny Theo doesn't fall for it Another Boras client pitching to Sox (is that Gag-me or Gagne?) Well, at least the games won't be lost because of terrible offense very often.

Hey, it's not your money. SS Lugo 1B Youkilis DH Ortiz LF Ramirez RF Drew 3B Lowell C Varitek CF Crisp 2B Pedroia Extra OF - Pena (among Manny, Crisp, Drew the fourth outfielder could play 100 games) Next up for the Sox, a roll of the Daisuke?

Fiscal irresponsibility has its price . Box seats in the Bronx go up a mere 40 bucks next year. Thank the baseball gods for the benevolent Sox, who never raise prices, while bringing us great VALUE every year. How does the saying go, "price is what you pay, value is what you get." I'm sure that the Sox have some kind of trending value statistic, such as the projected win shares/dollar based on a three year moving average or some such statistical mumbo jumbo. We certainly don't believe that it's just reach into the free agent hat and pick a guy. A few visitors come and project the starting lineup, or at least recommend what they feel 'should' be the starting lineup. There's no harm in being wrong, right? C - Varitek (should rebound from last season's underproduction) 8 win shares last season was a disaster. 1B - Youkilis a dollars/win share bargain 2B - Pedroia - can the guy cut down on his swing and improve his defense going to the right...I'...

Here's the direction that Theo Epstein travels with his relentless pursuit of J.D. Drew and efforts to dispatch Manny Ramirez. Yes, ponying up ridiculous sums for a corner outfielder with a checkered health past has opportunities. Maybe Partners Healthcare will sponsor J.D. Drew as the Partners Red Sox outfielder. Sure, that's the ticket, another marketing opportunity. J.D. Drew, when healthy, and motivated, has skilz. Availability? That of course, is another question. Some have speculated that Drew's signing somehow links to Matsuzaka's via the Boras connection. Doubtful. Boras isn't a guy who leaves a nickel on the table. Should we hate him because he does his job well? Don't answer that. As for trading Manny for prospects or the likes of Scott Linebrink , was Linebrink a little off last year, or is he in a downtrend? Is a guy with an average win share rating of ten, your kind of guy? Eerily, this has the feeling of A Christmas Carol, with Theo playing the rol...

I haven't taken any position on the J.D. Drew free agent acquisition 'controversy', mostly because I haven't really studied it. Let's run the numbers first, and then come back to intangibles. Bill James' analysis: WIN SHARES 2004: 34 2005: 13 2006: 21 Meatloaf says, "two out of three ain't bad," so I'll defer to him. Drew obviously played at an extraordinary level in 2004 and rebounded to 'All-Star' caliber play last year, ergo, the big payday. The Big Picture : Baseball Reference - Overall career stats: .286/.393/.512/.905 Scored 100 runs once, 100 RBI once. Similarity scores: most similar player TROT NIXON Similar batters through age 30: include Jim Edmonds, Larry Doby, Kirk Gibson, David Justice Three year statistics : .293/.415/.532/.947 Pre and post All-Star similar .263/.387/.427/.815 versus LHP very few appearances versus AL East rivals Comments: Bill Belichick talks about the importance of both ABILITY and DURABILITY. The money...

Many ballplayers deserve the title, "Red Sox killers", through the years, from the infamous (Bucky Dent) to the lesser known (Gates Brown). A free agent pitcher who seems to have dominated them through the years is Ted Lilly . Let's take a look at his recent career and try to get inside the Red Sox front office's collective psyche concerning Lilly. First, the thirty-year old southpaw is a career .500 pitcher (59-58) with a 4.52 ERA. For the past three seasons, he is 37-34, with ERAs from 4.06 to 5.56 and an average WHIP ratio of 1.42 (not that great). He's been plagued by the gopher ball, surrendering an average of 26 homers/year during three years as well with a strikeout/walk ratio of 424/228. From the Jamesian Win Shares perspective, he had 16, 4, and 12 from 2004 to 2006. For three year splits , he has allowed opponents to hit .249 with .755 OPS against and had similar ERA at home and away. He's pitched about the same before and after the All-Star break bu...

Oh to be a fly on the wall at the Fenway Park Baseball Operations suites. With the countdown on Daisy Matsuzaka in progress, the Sox have to consider the total experience for a Japanese import. And who better to know than someone with American League and Red Sox experience, Tomo Ohka. Let's run the numbers. Ohka has had a WHIP ratio of 1.31 to 1.39 the past three years in the NL. The good news is that he had excellent control, averaging about three walks per nine innings. The bad news has been that his ERA has been rising, and his win shares haven't, 4 in 2004, 8 in 2005, and 5 in 2006. He has pitched better on the road than at home the past few seasons, but hasn't pitched enough against AL teams to have a read on that. Is he under consideration to add to his 10 million in career earnings? 10 million bucks and 48 career wins. What a country!

Examining the first full season of Kevin Youkilis, I'm struck by the disparity between his Moneyball reputation and what actually transpired. At first base, Youkilis had question marks written all over him. Defensively, he proved to be more than adequate. Offensively , at .279/.381/.429/.810 he proved to be, what? With 91 walks he finished seventh in the AL, and he was eighth in doubles, and tenth in times on base. With 100 runs scored, his thirteen homers and seventy-two RBI seemed adequate, as long as he was hitting leadoff or second. Now for the issues. His home versus away OPS was .844 versus .774 and pre-All-Star game he was .874 and post .728. His leadoff OPS was .815 and his leadoff OBP was .385. Although he fanned 120 times, 68 came before the All-Star break. He was tied for second in OBP as first baseball with Paul Konerko, behind Jason 'Juice Guy' Giambi, led 'qualified' AL first basemen in runs scored, but was eighth of eight first basemen in OPS. The AL...

The Red Sox continue to work under the radar to renovate last year's Poseidon Adventure. "There's no crying in baseball", so let's focus on what is, not what might be. The Sox struggled mightily down the stretch, both OFFENSIVELY and defensively (pitching). Offensively, what changed? No Manny Ramirez, no production. The sanctimonious buzzards (polite words) of the press want somebody who busts his tail every time he grounds out to short, and puts up big numbers. He must also communicate as effectively as say, Mike Greenwell, a media darling who averaged 10 homers and 60 RBI his last SIX seasons in Boston, and played left field as though he needed a helmet.Let's recite the reasons Manny Must Go. He doesn't run out every groundball (see Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski). He's overpaid. Almost everyone in baseball is overpaid. He doesn't produce enough. Compared to Hank Aaron or Willie Mays? Similar batters through age 34 at Baseball Reference include G...

The American League named Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau the AL MVP for 2006 today, beating out Derek Jeter and a distant third Sox DH David Ortiz. Let's look at some numbers within the context of the recognition that shortstop is a much more valued defensive position than first base, although Morneau fielded well and had a solid range factor. Although Jeter won the Gold Glove, many observers would rate him defensively behind a number of AL shortstops defensively, including Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, and arguably Miguel Tejada. Jeter .343/.417/.483/.900 118 runs, 14 homers, 97 RBI Morneau .321/.375/.559/.934 97 runs, 34 homers, 130 RBI Ortiz .287/.413/.636/1.049 115 runs, 54 homers, 137 RBI Jeter proponents may argue the 'lifetime achievement' award factor, that he deserves recognition for the entire body of work for his career. Because the award does not include the playoffs, no issue arises there. Morneau had a solid but unspectacular stretch run (.879 OPS Aug...

Frank Catalanotto has been a Red Sox killer, and apparently he has signed with the Texas Rangers for about thirteen million dollars for a three-year deal. He is a 'classic' Moneyball player, with good on-base-percentage (.297/.362/.454/.816), generally mediocre defense, and at this point in his career does not run. His best season he hit .300, and had 83 runs scored, 13 homers, and 59 RBI. Do you want that for your corner outfield, DH, or first baseman? At second base his range factor (in limited appearances) is poor, 2.97 compared to a league average of 4.33. His similarity scores include Shane Mack, Jay Payton, and Shea Hillenbrand. Texas is rumored to be one of the teams inquiring about Manny Ramirez (a 10 and 5 man who must agree to any deals), whose value escalates in view of the Soriano deal at 17 million per for a mind-numbing eight years. My friends argue that Texas' chance of EVER winning are hurt by their grueling heat, which wears pitchers down, particularly dur...

Some wag once said the problem with free agency wasn't paying the stars but the high price of mediocrity. I'd say there's a bit of both. Alfonso Soriano apparently gets 'Derek Jeter money' and we've yet to hear whether Nomar Garciaparra, who spurned 15 extra large per year for four years will get anything close to that in Dodgerland. Meanwhile, Alex Gonzalez parlayed his defensive excellence into almost five million dollars a year, which certainly makes signing Alex Cora at two million a year seem like chicken feed. Actually, the commercials are pretty short corn futures , so maybe chicken feed will come down. I'm sure that Mr. Henry would be able to give me a better answer on that. And how will the Red Sox willingness to spend 51.1 mill to talk with the Japanese not spill over into the broader market? Why should a college or high school free agent be bound by the MLB draft rules as the Players' Association hasn't negotiated on their behalf? And why ...

The Red Sox seem to have this fascination with Julio Lugo. Until today, I didn't even know he is only one of three Lugos to play in the majors, another being his brother Ruddy. Why the obsession with Lugo? Is he a terrific player, or does he just have pictures of the front office? In the similarity scores at Baseball Reference , Lugos ten comps include Adam Kennedy, Rafael Furcal, David Eckstein, Eddie Bressoud, Pat Meares, Cristian Guzman, and Rafael Furcal. Not a whole lot of household names there, unless your household is Baseball Prospectus. Last year in split duty with Tampa and the Dodgers, he had 12 homers, 24 stolen bases, and was .341/.421/.762. His batting numbers with the Dodgers were hideous, .278/.267/.548. His fielding percentage at shortstop was .957 (Alex Gonzalez was .985 I think), with an average range factor. In other words, he was a decent stick, but not so great with the leather. Ordinarily he had a higher fielding percentage and range factor, but the fielding ...

Whoa! This Matsuzaka guy has it together, hiring Borat as his agent. Maybe Borat has some quotes for Boston American baseball fans. Reality Check: Welcome to Boston, Borat. How does your client feel about coming to America? Borat: My country send me to US to make hero worship and lots of American money. Reality Check: What does Daisuke think of Boston? Borat: You are stupid. Boston people worship Japanese baseball pitcher, welcome with open wallets. Reality Check: Do you have a negotiating strategy with Theo Epstein? Borat: I did not come to Bean City to negotiate. We come to get paid, in many American ways and maybe in Euros. Reality Check: Have you met the Red Sox negotiating team? Borat: Have you no sense of smell? I have met with many of theme. Can you not sniff that? Reality Check: Does Mr. Matsuzaka look forward to playing with any of the current Red Sox? Borat: Cultural exchange big part of baseball experience. Daisuke know of warmth of Sox penthouse where players stay. Reality ...