Red Sox Reality Check

The Red Sox accepted a Presidential invitation to meet President Bush and tour the White House and visited Washington Wednesday. After spending time at the White House, the team also visited wounded service personnel at Walter Reed Army Hospital. Several members of the team and management weren't present, and Sports Radio vilified them today. If I ever got invited to the White House (actually I did interview for a position there once), I'd certainly go, provided no medical or family emergency prevented it. As for Walter Reed, I spent two months during my Pulmonary/Critical Care fellowship there, and it's quite an intriguing place. The Army has a very robust and sophisticated relationship between its medical department and troops...a difficult task for doctors, who tend to have an independent streak. Walter Reed hasn't gotten such good publicity lately, but during my remote and peacetime duty there, I considered it a very special place. We know that a few individuals did...

Not exactly a quiet Sunday as the Red Sox ink Terry Francona to a three year extension with options and sign Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract. Francona's pair of World Series pelts in four seasons reversed his perceived failures during his prior tenure with the Phillies. Francona is in the top 100 managers all time with 660 wins and has the highest post-season winning percentage of any manager with at least twenty decisions. One would have to expect Francona to be ebullient with financial security for life, and from an ego perspective, recognition of his achievements as Red Sox manager. Francona has shown an ability to extract the best from his troops, and keep problems contained and in house. As for Colon, the Sox roll the dice on the 34 year-old right-hander known for a pair of twenty game winning seasons , most recently in 2005, and a perennial weight problem.

Nobody has a greater vested interest in Curt Schilling's baseball career than...Curt Schilling. In a very real sense, Schilling's dilemma resembles what in medicine was called 'risk contracts'. As a patient you would ask yourself are you better off if the physician (and the entire entourage) caring for you gets paid for what they do, or what they do not. Are you better off getting some riskier elective surgery or taking medical treatment? The answer is, as always, it depends...on many factors. The Red Sox, with Schilling under contract, would like to extract some value (public relations aside) from Schilling's ability to pitch, whenever and whatever that might be. If Schilling needs (and has surgery) the presumption is that the Red Sox get nothing from the righthander this season. Ergo, a conflict arises, what is good for Schilling over the remainder of his career (whatever the duration) or what is good for the Red Sox now. Is this a 'zero sum' game, or is ...

I don't play a doctor on television; I practice medicine in real life. The mind-numbing, constant barrage of Reality TV (nobody holds the clicker to your head) evidently has rendered us victim to a national stupidity. I give injections on most days - flu shots, pneumonia vaccine, tuberculin tests, hepatitis immunizations, tetanus, B12. Over the years I'm sure I've given thousands, many to those with serious underlying health problems - cancer, diabetes, heart, lung, or renal disease. How many people have gotten abscesses from one of these injections? I can't remember one (although I'll acknowledge my memory isn't getting any better). There is absolutely no reason I can think of (absent arms) to give a B12 injection into somebody's buttocks. Studies on cadavers years ago showed that a majority of intramuscular injections wind up in lipomatous (fat) tissue anyway. And as pop culture (movies) remind us, "pitcher's got a big butt" as in fat. I spo...

It's early spring training at the proverbial Camp Tranquility. Clay Buchholz versus Julian Tavarez doesn't exactly cut it as a quarterback controversy. How much does Terry Francona mean to the Red Sox? Anybody who can will a pair of World Series and deal with the chucklehead players and media deserves an extension. I'm sure Francona also can recognize that the Sox value both continuity and his ability to 1) communicate with players and 2) incorporate organizational philosophy into game situations. Yes, he's had some good fortune, like Okajima's outperformance and the achievements of the rookies last season. But isn't that where chance favors the prepared mind? Are you watching the NESN Spring Training coverage? Me neither, at least not yet. Off the warning track ? Like Indian food? I do, but I don't want to go into Cambridge or Boston to get it. There's a relatively new Indian food restaurant in Wakefield (Water Street) named India's Finest and we...

I didn't watch the testimony of Capitol Hill today. This matter belonged in the province of MLB, an organization apparently too busy coining money to solve a simple problem. As a lawyer told me once, " This isn't about right or wrong. It is all about money ." If I were Bud Selig (God forbid), this is how I would solve the issue, with a brief and simple solution. "To all professional baseball players: We have endured hardship to our integrity and game because of the widespread use of performance enhancing drugs. We must rid our game of this travesty as soon as possible, with a program of both healing and enforcement. All affected players, major and minor league will have seven days effective from the release of this statement to submit a statement acknowledging use of performance enhancing drugs. Submission of a 'previous user' statement results in immediate and total amnesty for any and all use of performance enhancing drugs, with no suspension, fine, or ...

Well, it's never boring, as we approach the dawn of the 2008 season. Curt Schilling, All-Star, World Series hero, blogger, and political pundit appears headed for the shelf, with the only question being, for how long. Schilling has a combination of shoulder and biceps injury, which accoompanying greybeard status, can't be a good career prognosticator. Will the Red Sox regret not trading for Johan Santana under these circumstances? I hope not, because they continue to maintain control of young talent at the major league level, and have been ranked as the number two organization (behind Tampa Bay) in minor league talent. If Schilling is done, that certainly promotes much better opportunity for Clay Buchholz to join Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester as frontrunners for the starting rotation. Recent Sox acquisitions of Sean Casey and resigning of Bobby Kielty have firmed up the overall roster. Varitek Mirabelli Youkilis Pedroia Lugo Lowell Casey Cora Or...

Nomar Garciaparra toiled honestly for most of nine seasons for the Red Sox. He won batting titles and the hearts of many Sox fans, but ironically the Red Sox didn't win a world series until his departure, in favor of more defense and pitching. Nomar seemed like a sure fire Hall of Famer, hitting both line drives and shots over the Monster, and making that cross-body play from the hole. But a career is the sum of the body of work, and where are we now? Garciaparra finished in the top ten in the MVP voting five times, and even in 2006, having departed for the Dodgers, he finished 13th in the MVP voting. He won the Rookie of the Year in 1997 and his career batting average of .315 is just one point higher than his postseason average of .314. Among the "Hall of Fame Monitor" he has accumulated a score of 114, with a likely Hall of Famer at 100. Pretty impressive overall. Conversely, we tend to think of Derek Jeter first as a winner (four WS titles) and second as a statistical...

With Spring Training less than a month away, where does Johan Santana stand? Trade rumors ping-pong around, with Santana a candidate to go to Seattle, New York (Yankees or Mets), and of course, Boston. Santana's a terrific pitcher, and no doubt soon to cause more inflation than Central Bankers on speed, as he negotiates a long-term contract of staggering proportions...approaching the GDP of Lower Slobovia. As for our friendly neighbors to the south, the Yankees, they're in, they're out, then in, then out, and now in again. Phil Hughes (talent), Melky Cabrera (OR - overrated), and ABK (any body but Ian Kennedy). Hughes has shown flashes, and Kennedy an undersized right-hander with one major league win. You'd think that the Bombers were offering the sun, the moon, and the stars for their Cy Young winner. More like one of Jupiter's moons, and some comets to be named later. I don't think that either the Red Sox or the Yankees want Santana as much as they don't w...

All's quiet on the Red Sox front, excepting Roger Clemens' denials. And here's a newly discovered rodent ...

Andy Pettitte acknowledged using HGH in 2002 today. His confession makes former Sox' star Roger Clemens denials seem more hollow than ever. Pettitte took one for the team? Did Clemens take one for Roger Clemens? How does the song go? "Don't go away mad, just go away."

The Mitchell report changes nothing. Years ago someone surveyed Olympic athletes as to whether they would take a substance that guaranteed them a gold medal and had a fifty percent chance of killing them. Most said, "of course." Athletes at one level doing anything to win. "If you're not cheating, you're not trying," goes the refrain. Under the legal stewardship of Donald Fehr and Gene Orza, with billions of dollars at stake, could you expect something different? So the report 'confirms' many of the usual suspects and even some of the upper pantheon of baseball greatness, like Roger Clemens, come out tarnished. Do we have a positive drug test? No. But what is the motivation for clubhouse figures to lie, especially when they might have to go into court some day? They hate everyone, they're jealous of multimillionaire athletes raking in the dough? Supposedly Scott Boras commented that the report means nothing because it wasn't collectively barg...

Eric Gagne agrees to a 10 million dollar contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. Let me write that down again, "Eric Gagne agrees to a 10 million dollar contract with the Brewers." For gawd's sake Eric, rush up there, grab the first pen that writes, and sign. Get your physical, drug test, Rorschach test, Wonderlic test, or whatever. Gagne, once one of the most feared relievers in MLB, came to the Red Sox from the Rangers, and was nothing short of abysmal. In 18 2/3 innings he allowed 26 hits, 9 walks, and an ERA of 6.75. He had no command, but pretty good velocity. He was the ants at the Red Sox 2007 picnic. Why so much money? That's easy to explain. The falling value of the US dollar (Thanks, Dr. Bernanke) The high price of mediocrity Milwaukee executives losing their minds Mr. Gagne has incriminating photos of Brewer management? To his credit, Gagne made no excuses, never publicly complained, and was pretty much a stand up guy through his ordeal into the lowest level ...

Today I had a rather interesting discussion concerning the relative merits of Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. My colleague, whom I'll call Bruce the Yankee fan, insisted that he never judges players by April or September events, and that in his opinion, Melky Cabrera, with his track record was a superior player to Jacoby Ellsbury. Not always right, but never in doubt, I argued that Ellsbury's performance, sample size admittedly small, came during a pennant race and World Series. Also in a mere 33 games, Ellsbury had 6 win shares while the redoubtable Melk-Man has had two fairly full seasons with 13 apiece. Obviously, we're both biased, although I see Ellsbury as a .300 plus hitter, .375 OBP guy, with 15 homer potential and forty steal potential, plus a solid glove in center. I see Melky as the guy who played Trot Nixon's line drive into an inside the park home run. Obviously, the pinstripes devalue him in my eyes and raise him to the apotheosis of centerfielderhood a...

Bob WatsoN(Y) putting in the Francona Rule just shows how inane that MLB upper management continues to be. MLB should concern itself with more relevant issues that affect the game, including: Performance enhancing drugs (e.g. HGH) Competitive balance (apparently no concern in an era of prosperity for the industry overall) The uniform issue is particularly galling when you consider 'uniform' largely irrelevant from the days of Jose Cardenal (?) and tailored pants, Manny Ramirez wearing the pajama pants look, and the helmets of Trot Nixon and Manny, and scraggly cap look of Nixon, Timlin, and others. Now I'm not saying that MLB should be addressing the NFL type chinstrap and towel width concerns, rather exactly the opposite. A little individuality never hurt a game filled with narcissistic millionaires. Does whether Francona or anyone else in the league (coaches and players) wearing a pullover, game jersey, or official jacket affect the game in ANY way? Obviously, it doesn...

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Jacoby Ellsbury is now in the Santana trade offer. Obviously, we cannot know whether this is credible or not. I'd argue that Ellsbury MIGHT be a perennial all-star and everyday player, who has more value than a pitcher even of Santana's stature. Ellsbury's six win shares in just 33 games whetted the appetite of Sox fans, as well as the momentum shift that he provided in the post season after replacing Coco Crisp. I've already shown what the economic cost is likely to be for the Yankees should they sign Santana. They've already overspent this winter (Posada 15M/yr, A-Rod ~30M/yr, Rivera 15M/yr) and likely will have another 16M for Pettitte as well as the Jeter 17M, Abreu 16M, Damon 13M, and so on. In other words, they're spending like drunken sailors in the global Arms Race with the Red Sox. Not even counting a possible Santana acquisition that alone was 122 Million not counting the money they squandered on Roger Clemens. I...

Click spreadsheet entry to ENLARGE Let's presume, for the sake of argument, that the Yankees have the right mix of players and dollars to acquire Johan Santana. What's the economic impact, the win impact, and the relative differential over a six year period? I'm no economist, but I'll try. Every economist has to make projections, and these have plenty of room for error, on both sides. They don't account for injury, for the increased cost to insure contracts (let's say the Yankees might have to pay an additional twenty percent to insure the contract...I have no idea if this is right), and projecting performance is tough. As Yogi might say, "making predictions is hard, especially about the future." Bob Gibson averaged 20 wins a season, in four man rotations, from age 29-34. Roger Clemens averaged 13 wins a season from age 29-34. Pedro Martinez averaged 13.5 wins a season from age 29-34. Greg Maddux averaged 17 wins a season from age 29-34. Curt Schilling...

I've been all over the park on Julio Lugo offensively, from "he's way overrated", to "I was wrong", and finally "I was wrong about being wrong". In the end, whether it was sunspots, Tarot, or astrology, Lugo got the last laugh. But what about the defensive measure of the shortstop and other musings? I know this crowd moved far past range factor and zone ratings to evaluate shortstops, but let's look at a couple of integrated models. First, David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range . You've gotta love the title, because it sounds like you need a P.H.D. to understand it, but second it breaks down performance to a couple of decimal points, which reminds me of how we insanely pay homage to statistics beyond validity. But I digress. At the top of Pinto's points come the Colorado Rockies and Troy Tulowitzki. Our sample size of Tulowitzki was small, because we'd have to rate him the most overrated player since Mike Greenwell, although...