Red Sox Reality Check

The Red Sox have created flexibility this winter and a fair degree of media silliness. Let's examine some flexibility and silliness. Dan Shaughnessy accused management of parsimonious behavior suggesting that the Sox were trying to rebuild on the cheap. "Nothing easier than spending somebody else's money, eh?" Silliness. The Sox acquire outfielder Mike Cameron. Exit stage left, Jason Bay. As mentioned before, the "Winner's Curse" means overpaying, just because other people are bidding for merchandise. We all recognize that in an industry where the AVERAGE salary (not just AVERAGE player) gets around three million dollars, there's a lot of overpaying. Cameron has always been a terrific defender, has some pop, and strikes out a lot. It's what you're doing when you don't strike out that counts. Flexibility. Here's the top 20 career list in strikeouts...some pretty good players on the list. Casey Kelly is highly regarded throughout baseba...

As terrific as Roy Halladay is, does he merit something approaching 20 million dollars annually, and the loss of several top prospects, e.g. Buchholz and Kelly? If I'm ownership, I can't go in that direction. Yes the Sox need a right-handed bat, and there are a few directions there, including Adrian Beltre. Whether Mike Lowell can handle the full load next year can't be known to Sox fans, and Beltre has considerable pop in his bat. The Sox are rumored to want to lock up V-Mart heading into his contract year. Jason Bay? The news all seems negative, from money to location, and J-Bay looks like he's earned a Godfather contract, although the 5-6 week stretch of distress against breaking stuff away mid-season gives me concerns. Among the possible pitchers, the best 'bargain' could be Justin Duchscherer, a former Sox farmhand, who has had health issues. Sure, you have the tantalizing Rich Harden, he of the DL, and Ben Sheets, ditto. Reportedly, Brad Penny has found a ...

Whatever we might think about the Red Sox, they aren't cheap. But in the baseball landscape, you have two currencies, players and greenbacks. The Sox have a variety of intriguing bargaining chips (relatively low-salaried players under extended obligation) including Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, and more. If we use the commodity business as a model, then the Sox have a certain 'book value', budgeted salary plus the "proven reserves" model used in mining. Of course, the proven reserves aren't so proven, but if they are assigned a 'value', trading them for high-salaried players depletes your future in both salary obligation AND in projected value. In other words, mortgaging your farm system to acquire 'expensive' stars makes you pay twice. For the Yankees, the bottomless money pit, spending 29 percent of free agent dollars in the past couple of seasons (per an ESPN article), that's simply business as ...

You should never be in a hurry to make a poor choice. And currently, baseball's labor pool lives in the world of Buyer's Remorse, where generally ownership overpays for mediocrity. Example: Marco Scutaro , a player whose price is at its peak, but what of value. Scutaro scored 100 runs and had twelve homers last season. He had NEVER hit double digit homers and never scored more than 52 runs in a season until the previous year (76). At best, I suspect the Sox view him as a placeholder until the anointed one, Jose Iglesias comes on scene. Meanwhile, shortstop remains the black hole of productivity and cost. Scutaro's career OPS is .721. Chrissakes, we are not talking about a great player. Lou Merloni had a career OPS of .716. Scutaro is Lou Merloni coming off an excellent season, a one-year wonder. Period. Of course, we have entered the Tug Hulett era. Does that make you feel any better? I want to throw up in my mouth over both of the above.

The New York Yankees got their 27th championship, a magical combination of glory and greenbacks, and the Red Sox have Jeremy Hermida. So, we're all feeling a lot better. The Sox seem destined for the poorhouse it seems, with Josh Beckett only a year away from free agency, Jason Bay suddenly the defensive talent of say, Mike Greenwell, and John Henry doing a chopshop job on his investment company. Maybe they can reclaim the Dunkin Dugout seats. We'll find out soon whether it was really Brad Mills who broke the curse, or whether the Sox can fill the role of bench coach with some combination of Stephen Hawking and Dr. Tom Hanson . Theo, you really ought to think about it. What we've learned in the offseason is how great J.D. Drew really is (I thought his season more than passable, although the Win Shares/dollar might be less so). If Win Shares mean something, then we should acknowledge that Drew was an estimated SIXTH in the AL at his position . We found out that Rocco Baldel...

What post-mortem examination do the 2009 Red Sox deserve? The simplest and most deserving explanation follows that the Red Sox simply went as far as they deserved. A team created to be balanced failed to show balance...underachieving on the road, including a dismal road show in Anaheim. Overall the team went 95-67, but let's look inside the numbers. They won 16 of 18 games against the Orioles, the worst team in MLB They won 7 of 9 games from the next worse Indians Therefore of their 28 games over .500, 19 came from just two teams 7 teams other than Boston had winning records, New York, Tampa, Minnesota, Detroit, Los Angeles, Texas, and Seattle The Sox split with the Yankees and Rays, and had a winning record against only two teams with winning records (Detroit and Minnesota). In other words, the Sox couldn't beat good teams consistently All of which brings us to why they're working on their handicap instead of freezing to death playing baseball. Why can't the team perfo...

How much psychic energy should we expend worrying about the Sox these days? Not so much. Just as in the NFL, you have to make the playoffs, then we'll start to worry. The Sox have four starters pitching well into the playoffs, and the deepest bullpen. What SHOULD we care about? Jason Varitek. The Captain's offense has disappeared in the second half and everyone on the opposition looks like Jacoby Ellsbury. Manny Delcarmen. This looked like it would be Delcarmen's breakout season, until recently when he's struggled mightily. Still with the combination of Papelbon, Wagner, Bard, Okajima, Ramirez, and Saito ahead of him, Terry Francona has plenty of options. Road worriers. The Sox haven't shown much on the road recently, even splitting a pair in Kansas City. Fortune 500. The old deal about guys making a fortune and playing .500 ball...or less against good teams. That's what the playoffs are about, showing that you can beat the good teams. Coaching defections? Shoul...

I'm rooting for Dice-K...he's a proud guy and a fierce competitor. A healthy productive Dice gives the Sox a better chance to win the big one. Yankee fans I'm talking to are not showing the bluster and confidence befitting their tradition. In fact, seeds of doubt creep into the Bomber Brains. Has the curse mentality become part of their collective psyche? We can only hope. The MLB stolen base title race comes down to three. Terry Francona's Sox managerial winning percentage? .582. They showed that Sciosia's Angels' record was .555. The former Sox pitcher who is 41st all-time in pitching wins? Jamie Moyer, of course. If Bill Belichick were a baseball manager, who would he be? Really. To what would you attribute the Sox success? Fielding percentage, 5th in AL. ERA, 4th in the AL. Runs scored, 3rd. Balance. I saw an autographed poster recently with Varitek and his two recent no-hit pitchers, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. The others? Derek Lowe and Hideo Nomo, methi...

John Henry, not Jon Lester! Frankly, I wish the owner would share his thought on the US dollar, lumber, natural gas, and other commodities instead of the Red Sox. Brad Penny and John Smoltz sure look better in AAA...oh, the National League. Buchholz, as of now, still has the best 'swing and miss' stuff on the team. Yes, I noticed that Alex Gonzalez has yet to walk for the Sox. "You can't walk off the island." Heck, my wife knew that. Intrigue in the front office. Did the Sox Fenway makeover maven get sandbagged? Can't hardly believe I care about that. Will Pedroia climb to .300 by the end of the season? Can Jacoby Ellsbury be the first Red Sox stolen base champ in a long, long time? Heidi or Tina? Maryann or Ginger? If V-Mart is the personal catcher for Lester and Buchholz, doesn't that change the 'conventional wisdom' about the contribution of Jason Varitek? Jacoby Ellsbury has his OBP up to .350 and still isn't in the top 20 in runs scored. T...

The Red Sox brought the kryptonite to Tampa taking two of three. Since the Devil Rays became the Rays, hasn't the doormat factor disappeared. Jonathan Papelbon started having some 'clean' innings. Good for him, with MLB hurting him in the pocketbook for 'slow play'. Tonight's game has the two starters (Byrd/Garcia) with the worst fastballs among non-knuckleballers? It reminds me of pitching in an adult baseball league. If I were a hitter, I'd want to hit against me. J.D. Drew has had a pretty good season, or maybe a pretty good month saved his season. Drews August numbers? .329/.449/.644/1.093. Not too shabby. Why do pitchers throw Jason Bay fastballs? Second in OPS in the AL...Mr. Kevin Youkilis. Yankee fans seem to have flawed memories. Some view Paul O'Neill as Mr. Congeniality...while some of us remember him as the "Watercooler Terminator" Dave Roberts with the "ambush" strategy. A classic. Victor Martinez seems like an even bette...

The Red Sox always seem to inspire some extra emotion and controversy, and nothing changed today. The Sox acquired former closer Billy Wagner from the Mets, likely guaranteeing themselves a pair of first round compensation picks if nothing else. After dropping two of three to the Yankees, the Sox rebounded with an ugly win over the Pale Hose last night and are battling ugly again tonight. Jacoby Ellsbury set the team record for steals; somehow I expected a Hendersonesque holding up the bag...fortunately we didn't see that. Jon Lester pitched 6 2/3rds pretty good innings, allowing three runs, the last two on a wild pitch strikeout and a liner off Mike Lowell's outstretched glove. Unfortunate. On the other hand, Victor Martinez delivered a pinch single to score Nick Green, pinch-running for Jason Varitek who had doubled. More on Wagner...you can never have too many quality arms on the staff, and Wagner adds another option against the tough lefties like Matsui and Pena down the st...

I can look at Josh and think of 'better days".

Congratulations to the Pedroias, joy into their lives. Peter Gammons correctly noted last year (I think), that a lot of 30-something ballplayers would start to look old (absent PEDs). That prediction has come spot on. What's a pitcher's out pitch? Does he have a swing and miss pitch? Buchholz may have the most swing and miss pitches on the staff. Not to say that Beckett and Lester can't make you miss... If Victor Martinez is the cause of Beckett getting lit up last night, then is the cause of Buchholz pitching well tonight? Maybe Alex Gonzalez doesn't have his old range, but he still looks pretty good out there. Maybe Jason Varitek is VERY banged up. A .505 OPS post All-Star break would bang me up. I keep waiting for Ellsbury to eclipse Tommy Harper's base theft record. Could be getting really close. Alex Rios to the White Sox for nothing...except tons of dough. Maybe Toronto ends up the winner on that deal. Jonathan Papelbon has a career WHIP ratio of 1, and this s...

D.J. Gallo with a brilliant satire on Bill Belichick .

The Red Sox recovered from a disastrous road trip through Tampa and the Bronx, returning to win three of four from Detroit. The Sox face the Rangers tonight, locked in a wild card battle, not to concede the divisional race. Unfortunately, the road has been Kryptonite for the Sox this season, with the Sox 38-18 at home and 27-31 away from Fenway Park. Relative to some of the teams they face, particularly Tampa, the Red Sox seem to have less athleticism and more age among the position players. Jason Varitek to put it politely is not in the prime of his career, and the consistent availability and production from J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, and David Ortiz certainly have declined. Naturally, Ortiz homers just after I write this sentence. It's no different for major leaguers than aging physicians (like me). When I recently worked seven days a week for several months, I'm feeling it. Big time. And I'm not doing it out in the heat. When does experience outweigh age-related decline? B...

Six games against the Red Sox divisional rivals beckoned, and the Sox have simply spit the bit, with five consecutive losses, including two bitter extra innings defeats. The Sox offense has disappeared, with eight hits and no runs in the past twenty-four innings of futility. Fans old enough to remember 1978, Bobby Sprowl, and the Boston Massacre have witnessed the biggest collapse in thirty-one years. David Ortiz and the steroid fiasco simply become a sideshow, with the center ring futility focused not on management failures, but simply underperformance under the bright lights. As fans, we ask does Jason Bay have not only a troublesome hamstring but a hole for breaking stuff away that opponents finally found as his Achilles heel? Will J.D. Drew ever find his stroke again? Is Mike Lowell finally succumbing to Father Time? The Sox appear in dire need of a catalyst to awaken a team that is pressing, literally on life support in the divisional race. The start pitching, decimated by injurie...

Did anyone doubt that Red Sox players would eventually appear on "The List"? We can diminish the 'cheating' aspect because we root for laundry, but our bitterness over a pair of Jason Giambi homers in the ALCS softens when we realize that Red Sox hitters had juiced, too. We may never know who 'just did it' and who didn't, although we all harbored suspicions over bulked up cover boys and supercharged homer production and slugging percentage from guys who hadn't produced oversized numbers. MLB and its players union never really wanted the genie let out of the bottle. Owners raked in the dough from fannies in the seats, players' salaries skyrocketed, and the game's popularity soared. When does exposing the man behind the curtain ever seem the thing to do? High profile hearings embarrassing stars like Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire put the Commissioner and his minions on notice that public airing of needle-stained laundry didn't play nearly a...

The Sox-Orioles contest produced not only a victory but signs of improved energy. Some story lines both overt and under the radar: Kevin Youkilis with 4 hits and consecutive homer games Victor (V-Mart) Martinez with his first Sox appearance, RBI, and standing ovation Dustin Pedroia with a first inning homer Josh Beckett gets his MLB leading 13th win Josh Reddick showed contact and power with a pair of doubles in his MLB start Daniel Bard gives another dominant relief appearance with 2 strikeouts in the ninth in a non-save situation; Bard has evolved into the number two option in the pen The Sox turned three double plays to shutout the O's The downside? J.D. Drew and now Jason Bay with hamstring tweaks Sox fans seemed everywhere in Camden Yards as Fenway South proved friendly Jacoby Ellsbury continued his outperformance with another multihit game and 48th stolen base as he closes in on the Sox record of 54 by Tommy Harper The Sox had delivered more ennui than excitement recently and...

Teams win baseball games at the intersection of run generation and run prevention. Management decided that run generation offered a more "buyable" commodity than run prevention. The Sox obtained Victor Martinez at a lower base price (Justin Masterson and Nick Hagadone) than obtaining Roy Halladay for Buchholz, Bard, and more. Red Sox Nation always embraces now over the future, and Theo Epstein balanced the opportunity with his calculus of future value. Meanwhile, on the field, John Smoltz continues to struggle. Do we have an aging veteran, recovering from surgery who can turn it around or have his skills abated beyond the point of no return? The concept of "never enough pitching" again comes true with Beckett, Lester and pray for bad weather, with injuries to Wakefield and Matsuzaka, coin-flip Penny, the enigma Buchholz, and Cy Old. Adam, we barely knew ye. Goodby Adam, hello Casey Kotchman. Maybe Kotchman's return to the AL will help. He's a prototypical R...