Red Sox Reality Check

You're complaining about Carl Crawford? How about this for trivia...who am I? I pitched for the Red Sox. I have never won 20 games, but 5 of the past 6 years, I have won at least 14 games. I have been an all-star once. I have never won a post-season game. I have never been in the top 10 in the Cy Young Award voting. I will earn 18 MILLION dollars in 2013 . Who am I?

What a difference a week makes. The Sox moved up the toteboard among the Boston sports scene, maybe even pushing the Patriots aside as they arrived in the Windy City. Some say Crawford isn't 'worth the money'. Anybody been watching the Rays the past few years. Crawford seemed to have 20 stolen bases a year against the Red Sox. A Yankee fan told me today, that Crawford gets "wasted" playing left field in Boston. Last time I checked, the Sox also play eighty-one games not in "America's Most Beloved Ballpark". If the Yankees elect to go with their non-defensive catcher, Miguel Montero, Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, and maybe others can run at will. We won't be complaining about the Yankees' short porch, when the Sox have Ellsbury, Crawford, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Drew, Lowrie, and Saltalamacchia in the lineup. What Sox fans won't be saying now: Why are they spending so much money on soccer? Why did ticket prices rise? Why won't they s...

This week the Red Sox sent a message to their rivals in New York, we can play your game. The addition of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the lineup brings a new dimension to the Red Sox lineup, a combination of both speed and power, as well as two Gold Glove caliber defenders. One might make the argument that the Sox are too "left-handed" with the right-handedness coming from: 1) Kevin Youkilis 2) Dustin Pedroia 3) Switch-hitting catchers 4) Mike Cameron in platoon 5) Jed Lowrie/Marco Scutaro at shortstop Obtaining Russell Martin (via free agency) could take David Ortiz out of the lineup against some lefthanders, creating a lineup against some LHP of: 2B - Pedroia LF - Crawford 3B - Youkilis 1B - Gonzalez DH - Martin RF - Cameron C - Varitek SS - Lowrie CF - Ellsbury Obviously, there remains a possibility of additional trades. Play ball.

We'll see how it turns out, but the Red Sox and Padres apparently have a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. I'd guess that the Padres get: Casey Kelly Anthony Rizzo Ryan Kalish Luis Exposito But I certainly don't know. I like Kalish better than Jacoby Ellsbury, because I like outfielders who can throw, but that's just me. 

There is news! Rumor has it that the Red Sox have signed Brandon Duckworth (Ode to Joy plays). What? Welcome to the Brandon Duckworth era... Uber-site MLBTraderumors.com reports that Adrian Beltre would PREFER to return to the Red Sox. Let's not confuse preference with dollar signs. This would obviously invalidate my Paul Konerko (White Sox) sneaking in the back door theory. I see the lack of right-handed power depth as the number one issue to be resolved by the Sox this offseason, closely followed by the bullpen. The Red Sox resigned Jason Varitek today, presumably as some combination of the Beckett-Lackey binky, and for platoon against left-handing pitching. Could the Red Sox ability to throw out runners stealing actually go down? Maybe signing Carl Crawford could help rectify that? Maybe Sox fans will get an early Christmas present, but I'm not holding my breath.

The hot stove has started to warm up, with Javier Vasquez (Marlins) and Jon Garland (Dodgers) signing, and more rumors coming along. The "definitive rumor" site is MLB Trade Rumors . Currently, the Red Sox "prospective" lineup looks something like this. Lineup (9) OF - Jacoby Ellsbury 2B - Dustin Pedroia DH - David Ortiz 1B - Kevin Youkilis OF - J.D. Drew 3B - Jed Lowrie C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia OF - Mike Cameron SS - Marco Scutaro Bench (5 to be filled) Varitek (free agent), Darnell McDonald, Eric Patterson, Ryan Kalish Pitchers (11 to be filled) Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett, Matsuzaka Bullpen: Papelbon, Bard, Atchison, Doubront (2 to be filled) The immediate issues without much imagination: 1) Very limited right-handed power (options Adrian Beltre, Paul Konerko, Jason Werth) 2) Bullpen inconsistency (options Kerry Wood, Scott Downs, J.J. Putz, Grant Balfour, Arthur Rhodes) 3) Uncertainty at catcher (no immediate solution...

If it's true that Derek Jeter sought a 6 year, 150 million dollar contract from the Yankees, then we should wish him well and encourage his masters to pay through the wazoo nose. Giving Jeter megabucks might only shift the Bronx budget away from productive to less-productive assets. Jeter's argument must go something like, "A-Rod gets 30 million and I'm gonna get 15, bleeping chump change. Who's done more for the franchise? Who's the face of the Yankees?" Last time I checked, contracts weren't like the Oscars "lifetime achievement awards", but compensation for expected production. Well, we can only hope. God knows that the Sox shortstop dollar black hole has gone through Lugoland and Renteriaville en route to its current occupant...Theo said, "Marco" and got "Polo" in return. Scutaro (OPS .721) outperformed Jeter (OPS .710) in 2010, and out-homered the Bronx bummer, 11-10. Last I checked, though, Jeter was in the pl...

It's still early in the off-season, and so far the Red Sox signing a minor league free agent hasn't exactly reassured the Nation. Even the knowledge that the Yankees and Derek Jeter are farther apart than the sun and the moon doesn't help much. Victor Martinez pockets 50M and four years, because the Tigers give him a chance to win a ring. For crissakes, I'd probably fall over if an athlete ever said he made a great decision for his family and took the money. THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. But it's wrong "to seem greedy", but okay to be greedy? Thus far, the scoreboard shows negative progress at catcher and third base (presuming the imminent departure of Adrian Beltre), and the best news for most fans that J.D. Drew has a contract year to play for. Word has it that David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis are both working out at Fenway, that Dustin Pedroia is on the mend on the left coast. I'm going to work on the assumption that Jacoby Ellsbury'...

Free agency has started, and the goal is to strengthen your team without suffering "The Winner's Curse". Overpaying for players who had exceptional years or who are likely at the downhill crossroads of their career can put a franchise in 'jail' for years. The Red Sox have suffered the consequences of poor judgments on Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo, yet benefited from correct reads on Jason Bay (six homers this season for the Mets). Money always comes onto or off the payroll. After this year's loss of interest in the injured and underachieving Sox, there's a perception that the Sox "must" be a big player to regain media attention and credibility. Does Sox upper management have its collective eyes on the ball, or are they more concerned with diversifying the empire via NASCAR and soccer? As far as the numero uno free agent on the market, Cliff Lee, don't expect the Red Sox to be chasing him. They've got Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett...

I haven't written much lately here, because I've been busy with broadcasting a cable sports show, high school football and volleyball, and maintaining my investment/trading blog . But even I can only resist so long. The Red Sox handled the departure of pitching coach John Farrell with class and dignity. Farrell added a lot to the organization and the Sox had only praise for the new Jays' skipper. I don't want to boast too much, but I had my prediction of the Giants winning here . Take my word for it. Seeing former Sox Edgar Renteria, Javier Lopez, and Ramon Ramirez having success makes us ask that unwanted question, "how come we can't get guys like that?" As for the downside, what is local favorite David Ortiz thinking (in this economy) when he talks about not being comfortable in a contract year? Does he think all Sox fans are drinking Four Loko ? Presuming the Sox pick up his option, a very reasonable assumption, he'll pocket 12 million dollar...

I haven't written much about the Red Sox lately, because frankly I haven't got time for the pain. A lot of factors go into the success or failure of a baseball season, including "relative" performance to statistical norms, managing, luck, consistency, injuries, and even 'acts of God'. I saw a highlight clip of a ball hitting a bird and deflecting past an outfielder for a walkoff hit.  But after yesterday's embarrassing loss to the White Sox, I needed some catharsis. Perhaps the Red Sox can't change anything about this season, but as for next season, some changes are in order. In no particular ranking: 1) Third base coaching. The best third base coaching occurs when nobody knows the coach's name. We've have Dale "Sveum it ain't so", Wendell "Send 'em in Kim", and Tim "Boo-boo" Bogar. DeMarlo Hale was fantastic but Bogar didn't really cut the mustard. I'm being kind. 2) Bullpen restructuring....

Johnny Damon turned down the Hub for the Motor City. Can't you see it now? The Dan Shaughnessy column comparing Boston and Detroit, yada, yada, yada. Player A has over 400 at bats this season. Player B has 255 at bats. Player A can't throw the ball better than my 22 year old daughter. Player B is a competent outfielder defensively. Player A has simply moved on from the Red Sox and Player B is trying to establish himself as a permanent professional ballplayer. Player A doesn't want to be in Boston and Player B appreciates the opportunity. Player A is Johnny Damon and Player B is Darnell McDonald.

Have you been paying attention? Tonight Ryan Kalish played center field for the Sox. His box score (3 0 0 0) does show much of an impact, does it? Early in the game, Kalish fielded a base hit into the gap and gunned the runner out at second, possibly saving a run. Historically, we've had some weak arms in center (Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury), so this is at least a temporary upgrade. Later, with runners on first and second and no out, he executed a sacrifice bunt perfectly, advancing the runners, who then scored on a Scutaro single. So, with "nothing" in the box score, Kalish made a significant contribution both offensively and defensively. Seeing is believing.

I'm not on the bandwagon, analytically anyway. But the 2010 season hasn't been all negative. If the season is a marathon not a sprint, then so we ask whether younger blood might help carry the team forward. Assessing the "youth" by position (ignoring the established 'younger' veterans in Youkilis (1B-3B) and Pedroia (2B), the Sox have (through the system) established more prospects. C - Saltalamacchia, Exposito, Lavarnaway, Ibarra (Wagner, Brown blocked?) 1B - Rizzo (young power hitter), Anderson (hitting better lately) Middle infield- Lowrie, Y. Navarro, Iglesias 3B- Middlebrooks OF- Kalish, Reddick, Lin (defensively) SP- established 5 starters, 2 very young (Lester, Buchholz), Doubront RP - Bard, Bowden (what will they do with Papelbon?) Top prospects- Kelly, Weiland, Fife, Ranaudo Power-hitting outfielders, especially right-handed, look to be the system 'deficiency'.

Dear Theo Epstein: Realistically, the Red Sox aren't buried, but are they dead? Tampa has 40 games to go, playing over .600 ball. If they continue to 'struggle' and win 20, they finish 94-48. To tie them, the Sox must win 25 of their final 39 to tie.  If Tampa even goes 22-18 (96 wins), then the Sox must go 27-12, in other words, play almost .700 ball down the stretch. Even if the Sox had their full roster, that's not happening. If the Sox don't beat Toronto the next two games, then Theo Epstein should think the unthinkable, sell 'em off. If you're not going to make a max effort to re-up Beltre (likely 4 by 60) and Martinez (maybe 4 by 10) and pay Papelbon 10 million (a total of 110 million), then maybe the Sox go into selling mode, in order to retool for 2011. Among Beltre, Martinez, and Papelbon, you should be able to get useful if not premium pieces, as you're not selling off junk, realizing that what you're not trading is quality but not...

How do you classify the 2010 Boston Red Sox campaign to date? Any answer has to be qualified, but how does this differ from any baseball season? Success and failure in baseball depends on many factors, including the proverbial 'bad bounces', health and injury, as well as over/underproduction by players, coaches, and management. Management : Although the franchise has a fiduciary and 'moral' duty to win every year, even Theo Epstein acknowledged 2010 to be a 'bridge' year. Transactions have to be judged over the long haul. So far, the insertion of numerous fill-ins, ranging from Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Eric Patterson, and most recently Ryan Kalish has overall exceeded expectations. Adrian Beltre has simply been a revelation. Few Red Sox in their wildest dreams could have anticipated the contribution of Bill Hall, and Marco Scutaro has for the most part stabilized the shortstop position. Acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia at lottery ticket prices gives...

"You're never as good as you look when you win...or as bad as you look when you lose." - Earl Weaver The Red Sox continue to confound and confuse. To their credit, they haven't gone into the tank when they could with major injuries at C (2), 1B, 2B, LF (2), CF, and P(Beckett, Matsuzaka). Conversely, the 'run prevention' strategy hasn't materialized, with continual bad fielding, bad judgement, and inconsistent relief pitching. Dan Le Batard makes it clear today in the Miami Herald that most journalists simply haven't adequately prepared, and become critical, simply because that's the easy way.  Now for the gratuitous comments: Sox fans bemoaned the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury. Who's crying now? Getting your timing back mid-season isn't so easy. Josh Beckett hasn't had the greatest command today...but throwing some more off-speed pitches could help...although maybe he's concerned about the running game. Fuggedaboutit. Not happe...

Lots of factors go into business decisions, ranging from performance to potential to dollars. 1. Kalish and Hermida. Jeremy Hermida gets DFA'd, hardly surprising when the former first round draft choice did nothing to dispel the "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" rap. After a torrid start, Hermida didn't hit and looked worse than that afield. Kalish can run and play defense, and it wouldn't take a lot of production to surpass the former Marlin. Kalish had two hits, a run scored and an RBI in his debut...pretty good story to tell his grandchildren someday. 2. How do you spell relief? The Sox will try to cobble together middle relief with Scott Atchison and some combination of Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront down the stretch. The low budget but low sacrifice approach as they don't mortgage the farm with prospects for suspects. 3. Catch as catch can. Jarrod Saltamacchia developed Steve Blass Disease (a.k.a. the yips) and has been working t...

No, I'm not talking about Jim Bouton's sequel to the irreverent Ball Four . And I'm not disparaging the job Terry Francona has done with an injured lineup, a starting rotation only now coming together, and a bullpen solid at the back end and largely sordid at the front end. The Boston Red Sox 2010, intriguing, playing hard, but crippled by injuries and an untimely West Coast trip that made fans (the ones not on vacation) tune in to bedtime not baseball. This might be the best starting rotation the Sox have had in my lifetime, with a potential someday Hall of Famer in progress (Jon Lester), two very high end starters (Beckett and Lackey), a guy with absolutely filthy stuff (Buchholz), and the enigmatic but talented foreign important, Matsuzaka. The excitement on the bases has been a no-show from injury and half the 'soul' of the team (Dustin Pedroia) kills himself to get back on the field, but can't hurry the process. It's a season where the fans have d...

Sigh.