Red Sox Reality Check

The Red Sox came into Spring Training with a few question marks, which got exaggerated during their abysmal 2-10 start. The expected "holes" were catcher and possibly shortstop. This lists AL catchers with at least 125 plate appearances, ranked by OPS (click chart to enlarge). The Yankees' Russell Martin got off to a torrid start, but don't think that they're in a hurry to trade either Jesus Montero or Austin Romine. Offensively, Saltalamacchia approaches Martin's numbers with far few plate appearances, and has almost the same amount of 'runs created' in Sabermetric parlance. Salty doesn't have the same "catcher's ERA" as some others, but he also has caught a disproportionate share of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield, which can't be helping his stats. Suffice it to say, I don't think most Sox fans see catcher as a need right now.

Commissioner Bud Selig, the highest member of baseball's hierarchy, hasn't exactly gone out of his way to support instant replay. In most fields of endeavor, politics and religion notwithstanding, "getting it right" becomes a priority not interference. But not baseball. Baseball finds error romantic. Don Denkinger , author of the blown call at first base in the 1985 World Series doesn't like being remembered mostly for a series changing call. Jim Joyce's blown call cost Armando Galarraga a chance at baseball immortality by taking away his no-hitter last year. And last night the Pirates lost when Jerry Meals spit the bit on a scoring play in the 19th inning. Baseball acknowledged the blown call. Baseball occasionally reverses itself. George Brett's home run in the 1983 "pine tar" game was protested and reinstated. And if replay can't be justified and human error adds pastoral value to the game, then why did baseball opt for replays for ho...

Theo Epstein has taken plenty of grief for the management moves that haven't worked out. Even with a pair of World Series championships, Boston might still be considered a "glass half empty" town. Maybe we haven't booed Santa Claus, but while I'm waiting patiently, I won't say that it couldn't happen. Click to enlarge. Here's the top ten OPS in the AL among qualifiers. You'll notice that the Red Sox have FIVE of the leaders, while no other team has more than two. You'll also recognize that three (Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Pedroia) all came through the Red Sox developmental system. Player evaluation, just as everything else in Boston, is an inexact discipline. The Red Sox have been pioneers in using all the resources available to them (process) to optimize their performance. I'm sure that the general manager has had his share of 'agita' over the results at times, but he does deserve a lot of credit, even as a "big market...

Bill James wrote the book Whatever Became of the Hall of Fame ? Therein lies the lament of those who got in and didn't and sometimes why. Veterans Committee members helped elect friends, and marginal candidates got in because they did. Do we need a Super Hall of Fame, the real pantheon of greatness, that contains only the best of the best...like Ruth, Matthewson, Williams, Cobb, Mays, Aaron, and so on? Or do we need the "Juice Bar" wing, where Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, A-Rod, and others can be recognized, with a flavorful asterisk? It would be crazy to think that Red Sox players didn't participate in what we recognize as wide-spread cheating scandals. Certainly, we know Manny Ramirez did (failed drug tests), and one has to wonder about MANY others with either oversized muscle and physiques, or whether suddenly outsized performance. None of us can name names, but wink-wink, nod-nod, we all have an idea. The separate but equal argument holds that both position pla...

As we approach the end of the J.D. Drew era, what can we conclude about the enigmatic right fielder? His Churchillian 'finest hour' came during the 2007 post-season, with a critical grand slam against Fausto Carmona. At other times, he was capable of carrying the team with mercurial, epic heights; occasionally, although playing hard he seemed indifferent. We love guys who wear their heart on their sleeve. Kevin Youkilis disappoints. He punishes equipment and looks penitent and fretful. Dustin Pedroia strikes out and curses the day he was born. He even gets a base hit and spins around while running to scream at the umpire over perceived indignity. But Drew approaches the marathon with as even-temper as is humanly possible. He seems to be a machine, one that gets good jumps on balls hit his way, throws accurately and well, hits the cutoff man, and runs the bases with quiet efficiency. Baseball is a game of failure. Three successes of ten at the plate make you an all-star. Fou...

As we approach the end of the J.D. Drew era, what can we conclude about the enigmatic right fielder? His Churchillian 'finest hour' came during the 2007 post-season, with a critical grand slam against Fausto Carmona. At other times, he was capable of carrying the team with mercurial, epic heights; occasionally, although playing hard he seemed indifferent. We love guys who wear their heart on their sleeve. Kevin Youkilis disappoints. He punishes equipment and looks penitent and fretful. Dustin Pedroia strikes out and curses the day he was born. He even gets a base hit and spins around while running to scream at the umpire over perceived indignity. But Drew approaches the marathon with as even-temper as is humanly possible. He seems to be a machine, one that gets good jumps on balls hit his way, throws accurately and well, hits the cutoff man, and runs the bases with quiet efficiency. Baseball is a game of failure. Three successes of ten at the plate make you an all-star. Fou...

We tend (believe it or not) to accept overachievement as the norm and underachievement as the exception. In reality, player and team performance regularly varies, sometimes dramatically. Even within a season, you have periods where players struggle (e.g. Dustin Pedroia), then catch fire. It all evens out...not really. So as we prepare for the second half, including the trade deadline, what observations can we make? Who's Hot, or Overachievers? Jacoby Ellsbury David Ortiz Daniel Bard Josh Beckett Josh Reddick Matt Albers Adrian Gonzalez Catching platoon Tim Wakefield Andrew Miller Alfredo Aceves Goldilocks performance, about right? Jon Lester Jonathan Papelbon Clay Buchholz (pre-injury) Dustin Pedroia Kevin Youkilis Jed Lowrie (averaged, including injury) Who's Cold, or less than expected? J.D. Drew Carl Crawford John Lackey Marco Scutaro Darnell McDonald MVP: Adrian Gonzalez Comeback player: Jacoby Ellsbury Who might matter the most in the second hal...

Derek Jeter achieved a career milestone with a 5-for-5 day, and game winning hit, getting the 3000th with homerun.  The Yankee captain did so at home against division rival Tampa and Red Sox nation has to be happy for a long-time rival. Jeter's career and five championship rings mark him as a first ballot Hall of Famer, and he's done nothing to tarnish his reputation off the field. Nonetheless, the Red Sox go to bed in first place, a game ahead of the Yankees, with rookie Kyle Weiland facing the Birds tomorrow.

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see why the Red Sox are in first place in the AL East. Click the chart to enlarge. They have four players in the top 17 in OPS, and three among the top eight. Kevin Youkilis is underrated in this regard, even with some health struggles lately. The Sox lead the league in runs (the final common denominator), on base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base slugging percentage OPS. Defensively, they have the third fewest errors with 44, just behind Tampa (42) and Chicago (43)...statistically, this isn't significantly different. On the mound, they have moved up to eighth in ERA (3.94) after a horrendous start and despite the struggles of John Lackey. Of course, omitting Lackey would be like measuring inflation without including food and energy prices. Golly, we do that! And I'm not wild about trading the restocked farm system for Andre' Ethier either. You think Ellsbury money is growing on trees? Ethier's OPS is ....

Before the season, most observers wondered about the productivity the Red Sox would receive from the catching position. An aging Jason Varitek and an unproven Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn't inspire an abundance of confidence. But as we head into the All-Star break, a funny thing happened on the way to Arizona. Among AL catchers with at least 100 plate appearances, the Red Sox duo rank 5-6, and combined would lead in runs scored, doubles, and be second in runs batted in. Of course, this doesn't include Saltalamacchia's tater tonight. Okay, they'd also lead in strikeouts, but you take the bitter with the sweet.

Growing up, we read about sports, the on-the-field, he (mostly he) did this or didn't do that. Sports nowadays gets intricately intertwined with societal malaise: medicine, lawyers, and money. The lead story of the day is Roger Clemens trial. Was it injury, pride, greed, or something else that allegedly turned Clemens to seek professional help? The other stories du jour about the Red Sox are Lester (lat strain), Youkilis (hit by pitch injury, foot injury, etc), Buchholz (back pain), the forgotten Jed Lowrie (shoulder), and so forth. The good news is that Jacoby Ellsbury goes to the All-Star game instead of to the doctor and that the Adrian Gonzalez to right field story didn't end up in the training room. Meanwhile, the NFL and the NBA fight the perennial billionaires versus millionaires fight, and sports journalists need secondary law degrees to report on the story. Strike, lockout, work stoppage, National Labor Relations board, mediation, retirees file to join suit, blah...

We have the "official voices" saying, "don't get too excited about Andrew Miller, he hasn't been very good in the majors." Thanks for nothing. If you haven't written for a major newspaper or have your own show, you know nothing. You can't remember Billy Rohr, Bobby Sprowl, Ken Brett, David Clyde, or Brien Taylor. You add nothing to the discussion, because the chosen ones say so. Baseball, like most endeavors, is the sum of your individual experiences. Nobody writing blogs with a small following could ever express anything worthwhile. Actually, most of us should probably just crawl back into the sorry, dark holes from whence we came. But some fans, believe it or not, have watched, studied, or maybe even played and had the chance to succeed occasionally and fail more often because of our love of the game. Yes, none of us are going into Cooperstown, but assuredly, most of "Boston's elite" aren't going in either. Some of us enjo...

This week there's been an inordinate amount of Johnny Damon for the Hall of Fame talk. It reminds me of Bill James' book, "Whatever Became of the Hall of Fame?" Both Player A and Player B had lengthy major league careers. Damon is Player A. Player B didn't have the stolen bases that Damon had, but had over 300 more RBI so far, and 160 more homers, AND won eight gold gloves. Very few writers talk about Player B as a Hall of Fame candidate, yet Bill James talked about him as one of the best outfielders NOT under serious consideration. What do you think? Player B is former Sox right fielder Dwight Evans. Not that anybody's giving me a vote, but I like the overall excellence of Evans, a superb defensive player over the more limited but speedy Damon.

In addition to strong starting pitching, successful teams inevitably have a competent closer at the back end. Jonathan Papelbon struggled (IIRC) to a 3.80 ERA last year and had eight blown saves. Papelbon has made no secret about his intentions, in the Assante Samuel mode of "get paid". Yet, what has the Sox closer been doing lately? Coming into tonight, in his last ten appearances, he has worked 9.1 innings, and allowed 12 hits, 3 walks, 8 earned runs, and had 14 strikeouts, with 4 saves and a win. Tonight he allowed a pair of hits to start the ninth, and has come back by mixing his pitches...it's a 3-2 count with two on and Damon on deck... Strike three and the Red Sox win. Ugly, but a win nonetheless in the series rubber game.

Tim Wakefield has been with the Red Sox for what seems like a lifetime. He's the little girls with the curl, when he is good, he is very good...but... Conversely, Andrew Miller lives at the other end of a baseball lifetime. Miller is that tall, lefthanded power pitcher out of Robert Redford's "The Natural", only Miller has struggled to find that elusive command and control that makes electric arms into Cy Young candidates. Miller has a clause that allows him essentially to become a free agent if he isn't on the major league roster by TOMORROW. This folks, is a no-brainer. Miller has been lights out recently in the minors, harnessing that 97 mph heat and terrorizing International League hitters. Tonight in 5 1/3 innings, he allowed one run, one walk, and fanned ten. Including tonight, in his last four starts, he has pitched 25 1/3 innings, yielded 17 hits, 5 earned runs, 3 walks and fanned 26. There was talk that he should be a "nice guy" and wait ...

Sometimes the bloom is off the rose, or is it? Have the Red Sox simply become Yankees Light, outspending teams to win? If we examine the 'everyday' lineup, the Red Sox do have "developmental" players. Jarrod Saltalamacchia may not be a Sox farmhand, but he's not a 'purchased' hire. After Ortiz, Gonzalez, Youkilis, and Ellsbury, Salty has the FIFTH highest OPS among "starter".  Gonzalez. They had to lay out big bucks, but the FARM brought the player, with Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelley, and Rey Fuentes all legitimate prospects.  Pedroia. Home grown. Problem is the 'under (sized) boy' is showing tread wear.  Lowrie/Iglesias. Out of the system...although Iglesias out of the country. Youkilis. System product.  J.D. Drew. Mercenary. Didn't work out exactly as planned.  Ellsbury. May not make the All-Star team but has a legit claim at this point.  CC (Crawford). Horrendous start, another mercenary, call it what it is.  After a start ...

Before the season, most fans would have "known" that catching would be the Achilles Heel for the Red Sox. The team opened with the aging Jason Varitek, and the unproven Jarod Saltalamacchia, the latter long a Sox target for potential. And the season didn't start well for the pair, with both flirting with the Mendoza Line and neither reminding anyone of Johnny Bench behind the plate. Where are we now? ...........................GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Varitek                31 94 13 22 4 0 3 13 11 28 0 0 .234 .321 .372 .693                            GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Saltalamacchia      41 131 17 31 7 1 5 18 9 34 0 0 .237 .296 .420 .716 We can distill it down to 30 runs scored,...

With the season almost forty percent over, which local players and AL players deserve election/selection to the All-Star team? Recently, we read that SIX New York Yankees led in All-star voting. Well, that's why they call it VOTING, although perhaps ORDAINING would fit. Of course, there is also team distribution to consider...which I'm factoring in. Catcher: Alex Avila (DET), Russell Martin (NY) First base: Miguel Cabrera (ANA), Adrian Gonzalez (BOS), Mark Teixeira Second base: Howie Kendrick, Robinson Cano (vote leader: Cano) Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubel Cabrera CLE (vote leader: Derek Jeter) Third base: Kevin Youkilis , A-Rod (A-Rod leads) Outfield: Jose Bautista (TOR), Matt Joyce (TB), Curtis Granderson, Carlos Quentin (CHI), Mitch Moreland (TEX), Jeff Francoeur (KC) DH: David Ortiz BAL  Zach Britton SEA  Michael Pineda OAK Gio Gonzalez MIN  Nick Blackburn P   Josh Beckett P  Mariano Rivera P  Jered Weaver P  Dan Haren P...

Fifty-one games into the season, the Red Sox have arrived, at least temporarily at the top of the AL East with an 18-7 May. Not that anyone is counting out the Yankees, who lead the AL in runs scored with 250 in 48 games. In the past three games, the Sox have pounded opposing pitchers to the tunes of a .372 average with 34 runs. But the pitching has been as much of a story, with quality starts from Jon Lester, Alfredo Aceves, and Tim Wakefield. The Sox have moved into second in runs scored behind their outburst on the road. It would be silly to claim that Jacoby Ellsbury is the best centerfielder in the AL, but not unreasonable to note that he's the second best behind Curtis Granderson, who should be the consensus All-Star centerfielder. Is it too soon to wonder about Red Sox representatives to the All-Star game? You'd have to say that Adrian Gonzalez is a lock, but statistically, see the following: David Ortiz has been having an excellent season, with fewer RBI, since ...

Watching the Red Sox amidst the mercurial season, I have a lot of questions. Has David Ortiz lost a LOT of weight? He looks a lot thinner to me? Is Lester just in a funk? He doesn't seem to have much command of his complementary pitches, especially the once-devastating cutter. Carl Crawford takes a lot of heat, but he's won games with his legs and his bat, although his numbers aren't good. It's about productivity in the end.  Can the Papelbon resurgence be maintained? Getting command of his splitter would be huge.  How many BAD contracts will MLB be prepared to take? Can a guy like Derek Jeter play his way out of a first ballot Hall of Fame vote if he has three bad seasons, or does an icon get a free pass no matter? How does a mediocre player like Jose Bautista become Ted Williams, with a ridiculous OBP over .500 and SLG over .800? I was just going to say Saltalamacchia has been going pretty good. Yard! Marco Scutaro, we barely knew ya. Is the Tribe for real...