All-Stars Inside the Numbers

Nobody said that statistics constitute the sole criteria for determining either value or selection to the All-Star team. Consider the following table:

WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) reflects the pitcher's ability to prevent baserunners from reaching. K/BB (strikeout to walk ratio) tends to predict future ERA even better than current ERA. More dominant pitchers tend to have low WHIP ratios and higher K/BB ratios.

Two of the above pitchers achieved All-Star selections on the 2009 American League squad. Which two? Pitcher A ties for the most innings, has the best K/BB ratio and an ERA sub 4. He doesn't make the team. Pitcher D with a K/BB ratio well under 2 and an ERA almost half a run higher does.

Pitcher A, Jon Lester.
Pitcher B, Josh Beckett.
Pitcher C, Brad Penny.
Pitcher D, Tim Wakefield.

There are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain.

All-Star Sox

Major League Baseball announced the All-Star selections today, an amalgam of selections among fans, players, and managers.

Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay got voted onto the team. Pedroia, the reigning MVP, checks in statistically behind Ian Kinsler and Aaron Hill, but the feisty second baseman got the love. Bay, newly minted as a US citizen, gets the nod in left.

Player voting brought Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon to the AL pitching staff, and manager selection added Kevin Youkilis and Tim Wakefield.

Wakefield's selection is his first, during a remarkable career.

• Wakefield finished third in Cy Young voting in 1995
• He is the Red Sox career start leader.
• Won ten games or more ten times.
• MLB career 140th in wins
• MLB active 7th in wins
• 71st all-time in strikeouts
• 35th active in adjusted ERA+
• 7th all-time in most hit batsmen
• Has led the AL in both losses (15) and home runs allowed (35) in a season
  
• On two World Series winners
• Surrendered the walkoff homer in the ALCS championship game in 2003

Congratulations to the locals selected.

All-Star Break Ahead

Baseball has the best of the All-Star games, although for me the game changed after interleague play. I'm not too concerned about how many Sox players get selected or not, although I'm sure that contractually some probably have All-Star bonus clauses. If you make ten million dollars a year, should you be rewarded additionally if you perform TO expectations? Hey, that's what contract negotiations represent.

All that acknowledged, the Sox should focus on playing good baseball into the break. A strong homestand would help keep Tampa and Toronto in the rearview mirror. The Yankees are always the Jason Voorhees of the AL; you can never eliminate them.

From an overall performance status, the 'best' players on the Sox have been Youkilis, Bay, Papelbon, and Beckett. A lot of players have exceeded expectations including Varitek, Green, and much of the bullpen. To an extent Jacoby Ellsbury has also improved, as he's no longer easily 'defeated' by the hard stuff inside.

What Sean Casey emphasized tonight reinforced the organizational goals - consistency, professionalism, and effort. Mark Kotsay's at bat in the bottom of the eighth illustrated the 'tough at bat', as he worked the count long enough so that he could get a hittable pitch.

Red Sox Nation has changed since 2004 and especially since 2007. The fans expect success and 'the breaks', as opposed to waiting for the "piano from the sky" to fall and land on them. Surely, it doesn't always work out; baseball's vicissitudes ensure surprises. But no longer a priori do we anticipate the worst outcome.

As I've said many times, every game brings you something unexpected, the leads lost or deficits overcome, heroics or errors, baseball genius and faux pas. Half the players running off the field with only two outs? Happened this week. A nine run lead squandered and a four run ninth inning deficit erased back-to-back? This week.

Have a pair of World Series victories lifted the sense of urgency for fans? While some might argue that interest remains maxed out, I believe that the 'performance anxiety' overhang really has changed. Some things don't change, the rivalries, the 'our boys' mentality, and the intensity within the ballpark. But to paraphrase the Southwest Airlines ad, "the angst? It's off."

Three Month Observations

As we approach the All-Star break, maybe we can analyze the good, the bad, and the ugly about the 2009 Red Sox.

The Good.

• Locking up Lester, Pedroia, and Lester was a key move by the Sox
• The Sox seem to have the key ingredient (pitching) to deal with the tectonic shift away from performance-enhancing drugs toward more speed and defense
• Jason Bay has proven himself to be an elite player, capable of beating up on the dogs and cats and the lions and tigers.
• The Red Sox bullpen is the best in their modern era.
• The front three of Beckett, Lester, and Penny give the Sox a chance to win 70 percent of their games...or more.
  
• Nick Green has far outperformed expectations.
  
• Jacoby Ellsbury continues to mature as a player, and is on pace to set a Red Sox stolen base record
• Jason Varitek has maintained his defensive skills and had a mean reversion to offensive productivity, although June wasn't his best
• Tim Wakefield, may he make the All-Star team, but maybe getting voted on by the fans would be best.
• J.D. Drew is 21st in the AL in OPS. He's above Ian Kinsler, Adam Jones, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, and Carl Crawford to name just a few.
• Terry Francona continues to be the Sox' version of Walter Alston.
• Has ANYBODY caught Tim Wakefield better than George Kottaras?
  

The Bad.

• Injuries are still out there. Mike Lowell has plenty of heart, but not enough hip. All of this makes the versatility of Kevin Youkilis even more critical.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka's non-excellent WBC adventure has been the skunk at a garden party.
  
• David Ortiz's first two months were beyond forgettable.
  
• The Amica pitch zone shows that the umpiring isn't too special.
• Julio Lugo's range suffered early, but to his credit, he hasn't been a distraction.
  

The Ugly.

• Dustin Pedroia's haircut
• John Henry and Mark Teixeira won't be bosom buddies.
• The weather in June. Boston fans get three months of decent weather, except June fell off the map this year.

Second half musings.

• Will the Sox be able to get another bat?
• Clay Buchholz.
• Where does Jed Lowrie fit into the picture? Is he better than Green now?
• Can Big Papi return to a 20 HR, 90 RBI, .250 season?
• If John Smoltz pitches like tonight, he will be a factor.
• Tampa still makes me a little nervous.
  
• Who will be next user outed?
  
• My dream World Series? The Red Sox and the Giants. The Giants fans deserve it, and they've got the pitching.

And in the category of "you never see that", half the team runs off the field with only two outs in the bottom of the sixth. Well, almost three outs. It didn't take "Bull from Night Court" Masterson to get the final out.

Opportunity Knocks; Are We Ready?

Baseball and life. Sometimes the season doesn't turn out the way you thought it would. As we approach the halfway point in the season, the Red Sox have the second best record in baseball. How the hell is that possible?

David Ortiz has only recently begun to hit, while the offensive core of the team, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia has fallen off a bit lately. The only players who have outperformed expectations offensively are Jason Bay and Nick Green. Jason Varitek had a great start, and now the jury has gone out offensively.

Among starting pitching, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny have overachieved, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have resumed their expected trajectory, and Daisuke Matsuzaka has suffered through any player's worst nightmare.

The obvious answer becomes the excellence of the bullpen. They have held leads, closed victories, and allowed the team to stay close in others. Recently, with short starts, the bullpen has shown a little fraying around the edges.

Management's overarching direction remains drafting and developing pitching, with bargain/risk oriented acquisitions like Penny and John Smoltz. The Sox have top-flight pitching prospects in Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly, and Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden are not far behind.

Unfortunately, the acquisition and training of the next generation of power hitters hasn't proven as consistent, making some nameless signings and/or power trade essential.

But we ask, the 2009 Sox, how good are they? In the post-steroid era, we're seeing a falloff in the overall speed and power throughout the game. Maybe the games haven't been quite as volatile, but I'm ready for a return to pitching and small ball, supplemented by an occasional three-run homer.

Keeping Faith

The manager's job never gets any easier, arbitrating among egos, streaks, the vicissitudes of baseball, and personal problems that we will never know. What affects a player, illness or injury, frustration, depression, or personal problems?

How a player gets treated also depends on the alternatives? Consider the choices:

• Jason Varitek versus George Kottaras
• Daisuke Matsuzaka versus John Smoltz
• Julio Lugo versus Nick Green
• J.D. Drew versus Rocco Baldelli

Each pairing has a 'starter' paired against a challenger. Let's avoid Matsuzaka for last...

Jason Varitek handles the pitching staff and calling the game. His offense has exceeded last year's performance, but lately he too suffers from "the dwindles." His June numbers are .154/.298/.256/.554. Whatever he tried in April and May seems to have evaporated in June. His left-right statistical differential is huge. Nobody (as far as I know) screams, "sit the old man down". The alternative doesn't sound that attractive either.

Nick Green has simply supplanted Lugo at shortstop. Lugo played the role of Wally Pipp, except Green and DiMaggio's only commonality remains letter G in their last name. So far Lugo has played the good soldier, and even produced in light duty. Their potential replacement, Jed Lowrie, won't make anyone forget Cal Ripken either. In other words, the amplitude of the discussion stays low.

J.D. Drew has yet to emerge in his third Sox season. Season one brings memories of a grand slam against the Tribe in the postseason and a decent World Series. Last year, he excelled in June, but didn't make anybody forget Babe Ruth. Aside from the megabucks he earns, Drew doesn't incite passion among Sox fans. He hustles, keeps to himself, and again the alternative, either Rocco Baldelli or innumerable "not ready for prime time" minor leaguers doesn't solve the problem.

All of which brings us to Daisuke Matsuzaka. No monetary consideration comes into play. He has a no-trade clause, the only one on the team. Almost nobody can muster an argument for Matsuzaka, but I'd recommend they let him use his approach and let the chips fall. Viable alternatives enhance the 'difference' with Matsuzaka, because the Sox have choices:

• Five man rotation with Beckett, Lester, Penny, Smoltz, and Wakefield
• They have two additional starters that fans don't cringe at the possibility, Buchholz and Masterson, and another back burner possibility in Bowden.
  
• The guy most likely not to have a month-to-month lease has become Brad Penny, who has quietly seen his value skyrocket in the past month. His ERA has fallen each month, his K/BB ratio looks good at 2, and his June ERA is 2.70.

We don't have to make excuses for Dice-K, who we know to be a tireless worker, whose biggest fault emerged as his loyalty to his company over The Nation. He could be injured or just mentally out of sorts. Let's not forget that he won 18 games last season amidst our "what have you done for me lately?" mantra.

Sox fans know that the "too much pitching" problem always works itself out via performance changes, injury, or other Acts of God. With that in mind, patience might sound corny, but the best answer.

Long but Exciting

Not many thirteen inning baseball games can hold your attention, but the Sox-Phils marathon did tonight. The game had a number of highlights, twists, and turns, and hair-raising moments for the Hose.

• John Lester became the first Sox left-hander to have three consecutive ten strikeout games. We're including Babe Ruth here, Mel Parnell, Bruce Hurst, Bill Lee, and Rogelio Moret, too. Lester's brilliance got lost in the shuffle.
• Six Sox pitchers gave up five hits in thirteen innings.
  
• Dustin Pedroia went 0-7.
• David Ortiz played first, but won't win any Gold Gloves.
• Nick Green made a pretty 6-3 double play against the speedy Jimmy Rollins.
  
• Ramon Ramirez moved down the pecking order surrendering a ninth inning titanic game-tying homer to Ryan Howard. It happens.
• Dave Roberts noted (correctly) that the Sox had lost momentum and energy; the Sox promptly rallied.
• Justin Masterson surrendered (almost) the game-winning three run homer in the 12th. It was foul...by a hair.
• The Sox pushed across three runs in the thirteenth, courtesy of an Ellsbury single, a Nick Green sac fly, and mixed in, a single by (crickets) Julio Lugo. Good job.
  
• Daniel Bard, he of the 99 mph fastball, struck out the side in the ninth, earning his first save, with a walk and hit batsman mixed in. Cripes, who wouldn't be afraid of hitting against a guy who has that kind of stuff, and variable idea where it's going.

The Sox have the second best record in the majors, after the Dodgers.*

About the only thing I didn't see tonight was (another) coyote in my backyard.