New Englanders know 'Calvinist' theology, figuratively through scripture and literally through the Calvin Schiraldi meltdown from the 1986 post-season.
Perhaps it is fitting that the 2013 baseball season opens with the 'reformed' Red Sox, offering fans a different attitude and ambience, although extrapolating to the long season is one part impudent and one part folly.
For example, the Sox will not go errorless in 2013, will not have an ERA sub 3, and Daniel Nava will not have forty plus homers, although who would have predicted him to have homered in consecutive games from opposite sides of the plate...this season?
I'm not wholeheartedly jumping onto the bandwagon, but admittedly, one has to be encouraged by the results from the notoriously slow-starting Jon Lester and from Clay Buchholz. Sox fans had reason to expect a productive bullpen, but nobody expected Koji Uehara to look like the bullpen edition of Greg Maddux or Joel Hanrahan a reasonable facsimile of Dick Radatz.
Are there questions? Certainly after watching the Sox struggle against Pettitte, Happ, Cecil, and for the most part Chen, we have to wonder about adjustments against left-handed pitchers. Wunderkind Jackie Bradley, Jr. has sprung a leak against southpaws and hard stuff under the hands. We still don't know about the longer-term health of David Ortiz, Stephen Drew, or John Lackey.
And while it's kumbaya in Camelot for a week, the marathon season sometimes exposes the tensions and travails of millionaire wallets and egos, and the mercurial nature of others, like Ace Aceves.
But all those caveats aside, the Red Sox version 2013.0 has exceeded early expectations and done so with good will if not duende. You can't ask for more than that.
Monday, April 08, 2013
Friday, March 29, 2013
Nostradamon
We're on the cusp of the baseball season, and a thousand questions arise. Let's toss out a few.
- Has there ever been a great manager who began as a pitching coach?
- Is the Red Sox pitching rotation 'fixed'?
- Should the Sox keep Jackie Bradley, Jr. at the big league level?
- Time heals all heels? What will David Ortiz bring to the table and when?
- Who will overachieve and who will underperform?
John Farrell brings two years of managerial experience and a .475 winning percentage with him. First, managerial performance follows talent, and the Jays weren't great. However, you can name the great contemporary managers who were pitching coaches in a nanosecond. Highly regarded Bud Black was the NL Manager of the Year in 2010 with San Diego, but he's not headed to Cooperstown anytime soon. The definitive article is here.
Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz had great Spring Training and that matters. Jackie Bradley, Jr. did, and it doesn't. Huh? Whether Farrell rejuvenates the Popeyes and popup lid clan remains to be seen. There's plenty of balance in the AL East, and the Yankees start out without A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, and Granderson. If the Sox start poorly, that reflects poorly against a team with one-arm tied behind its back.
Numerous observers remarked that JBJ reminds them of the excitement surrounding Jacoby Ellsbury's arrival. Let me ask this rhetorical question...if six years from now, JBJ's career were IDENTICAL to Ellsbury's to date, would you be satisfied or disillusioned? Are the Red Sox treating JBJ with respect or as a commodity, not yet on the 40 man roster? Yes, we realize that management is trying to get "something for nothing" if they need to move Dan Butler, Alex Hassan, or Mauro Gomez off the 40-man. And every GM in the majors knows they have to do it. Nobody's predicting immediate stardom for Bradley, Jr. and if he goes down to Pawtucket at some point in the year, few will be shocked. I only hope that the communication between management and Bradley, Jr is frequent and respectful. It hasn't always worked that way.
The game's afoot. As a physician, I'm acutely aware of the potential severity, chronicity, and debility of foot and ankle problems. Certainly the Sox should have a more potent lineup with Ortiz in the middle of it, but I'm not counting on it. I don't think Ortiz will be the biggest team disappointment however.
Who will succeed and who will struggle? Presuming that Mike Napoli stays healthy, I like his chances to put up .280/.350/.500/.850 numbers. Conversely, Shane Victorino has been on a downward trajectory. Coming to a new league won't necessarily help him. His WAR numbers the last three years are 3.1, 5.4, and 1.5. Which guy is he? I suspect that he's more 1.5 to 3 than a 4 to 5 guy, and he's only been over four twice, and has a lot more mileage on him since then. I'm expecting something like .260/.320/.400/.720 which doesn't really cut it for thirteen million.
The questions are many for this team and we'll see whether they have the answers.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Slogan's Run
Welcome to the 2013 Boston Red Sox, a Tom Werner production. "Every pleasure is yours to experience." After all, the bad karma of Bobby Valentine has evaporated, and a kinder, gentler Prodigal Son, John Farrell returns to steer the ship.
Red Sox Nation lives as a dystopian society, where older fans, reminded of "25 players, 25 cabs" are to be eliminated in favor of 'pink hats' and any corporate memory of the embarrassment of late in 2011 and all of 2012 removed.
In honor of principal owner John Henry, trend-following commodities guru, maybe we should go with "this time it's different." If only Johnny Gomes could be a pitcher, then we could wax poetic about the second coming of Ricky Vaughn. Future disgruntled centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is hardly to be heard, as media grooms us for (not 1984, but 2014) Jackie Bradley, Jr. And no doubt Shane Victorino has all the style and soul of the Kia hamsters.
Juan Nieves has already been drinking the Kool-Aid, as the Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront front line is already the parousia of Palmer, McNally, Cuellar, and Dobson from the 1971 Orioles.
I'm the Positive Dog, but even I have limits.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Hope is not a Strategy in "The Price is Right"
The Red Sox rely on reversion to the mean coming into the 2013 season. That is, having more players achieve closer to their 'normal' performance. The "Moneyball" approach looks to translate historical performance in key metrics, to oversimplify, OPS for offense and K/BB for pitching, into effective play.
Traditionalists argue that Moneyball overlooks what others would call baseball instinct. Sabermetricians could reply that your "lying eyes" see what they want.
I lack the inclination to review the entire team by plate appearances, but we can go through a couple, especially the "strength up the middle" dynamic. Among AL catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was eighth in OPS (.742) and tenth in WAR (1.2). The good news, if that matters, is that he was better than Jesus Montero.
In centerfield, Jacoby Ellsbury has been a model of inconsistency. Injury-plagued, the Sox 'golden boy' has had an AL MVP runnerup campaign and then 2012.
Ellsbury, who received a one million dollar raise to nine million dollars, was twelfth in the AL in OPS, and last in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
If Ellsbury suffers much work absence this season, the Sox have an "insurance policy" in the Flyin' Hawaiian Shane Victorino.
Victorino comes in with a thirteen million dollar price tag. The only problem is that Victorino is not much of a difference from Ellsbury. Even with the anticipated stolen bases, the runs created story isn't likely to be much different.
For their careers, both have averaged less than three Wins Above Replacement for what passes as full seasons, although Ellsbury's .791 career OPS is a bit higher than Victorino's .770.
Victorino has won three Gold Gloves and Ellsbury one.
Sox fans are familiar with player inconsistency, injury, and disappointment. Who doesn't remember George "The Boomer" Scott hitting .303 in 1967 and .171 in 1968. Or Dwight Evans, who hit under .250 five times and over .280 seven times? And we remember Jack Clark's cup of coffee on the way out the door and Nick Esasky wiped out by vertigo.
So how will the Red Sox actually do? The Sox have more question marks than Frank Gorshin's Riddler in Batman. Will David Ortiz's heel recover and will Mike Napoli's heel hold up? Is Johnny Gomes more than a platoon player? Will the Red Sox rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront be a rotisserie success or get fried?
Here are some projections.
Baseballguru (80-82) third.
Red Sox individual (ZIPS)
Athlon Sports Dismal
Bleacher Report Benched
The computer simulation season projections are still pretty thin. And what does it matter?
With teams still under construction and health (and PED issues) still up in the air, it's too early to take strong stances on performance.
Traditionalists argue that Moneyball overlooks what others would call baseball instinct. Sabermetricians could reply that your "lying eyes" see what they want.
I lack the inclination to review the entire team by plate appearances, but we can go through a couple, especially the "strength up the middle" dynamic. Among AL catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was eighth in OPS (.742) and tenth in WAR (1.2). The good news, if that matters, is that he was better than Jesus Montero.
In centerfield, Jacoby Ellsbury has been a model of inconsistency. Injury-plagued, the Sox 'golden boy' has had an AL MVP runnerup campaign and then 2012.
Ellsbury, who received a one million dollar raise to nine million dollars, was twelfth in the AL in OPS, and last in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
If Ellsbury suffers much work absence this season, the Sox have an "insurance policy" in the Flyin' Hawaiian Shane Victorino.
Victorino comes in with a thirteen million dollar price tag. The only problem is that Victorino is not much of a difference from Ellsbury. Even with the anticipated stolen bases, the runs created story isn't likely to be much different.
For their careers, both have averaged less than three Wins Above Replacement for what passes as full seasons, although Ellsbury's .791 career OPS is a bit higher than Victorino's .770.
Victorino has won three Gold Gloves and Ellsbury one.
Sox fans are familiar with player inconsistency, injury, and disappointment. Who doesn't remember George "The Boomer" Scott hitting .303 in 1967 and .171 in 1968. Or Dwight Evans, who hit under .250 five times and over .280 seven times? And we remember Jack Clark's cup of coffee on the way out the door and Nick Esasky wiped out by vertigo.
So how will the Red Sox actually do? The Sox have more question marks than Frank Gorshin's Riddler in Batman. Will David Ortiz's heel recover and will Mike Napoli's heel hold up? Is Johnny Gomes more than a platoon player? Will the Red Sox rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront be a rotisserie success or get fried?
Here are some projections.
Baseballguru (80-82) third.
Red Sox individual (ZIPS)
Athlon Sports Dismal
Bleacher Report Benched
The computer simulation season projections are still pretty thin. And what does it matter?
With teams still under construction and health (and PED issues) still up in the air, it's too early to take strong stances on performance.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Tale of the Tape
What you see is not always what you get. Baseball fans and baseball organizations are often mesmerized by numbers. We should be able to measure production. Of course, isolated statistics (small sample size) may not always reflect perception...or future production.
Here are statistics from two Red Sox players from 2012. Both had similar plate appearances, but one had better on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. He also had better isolated power (IsoP) and Secondary Average (SecA). One player is adored throughout much of Red Sox Nation. The other is an afterthought.
Player one (88 games played) is Daniel Nava, he of the better stats. The other is Jacoby Ellsbury. Of course, Ellsbury has a more polished resume' and a fantastic "once in a lifetime" season in 2011. Ellsbury has suffered through two seasons of misery with extended time on the DL. But what is perception and what is reality? Nava will struggle to make the team and Ellsbury anticipate a 12-20 million dollar a year contract. Go figure.
Here are statistics from two Red Sox players from 2012. Both had similar plate appearances, but one had better on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. He also had better isolated power (IsoP) and Secondary Average (SecA). One player is adored throughout much of Red Sox Nation. The other is an afterthought.
Player one (88 games played) is Daniel Nava, he of the better stats. The other is Jacoby Ellsbury. Of course, Ellsbury has a more polished resume' and a fantastic "once in a lifetime" season in 2011. Ellsbury has suffered through two seasons of misery with extended time on the DL. But what is perception and what is reality? Nava will struggle to make the team and Ellsbury anticipate a 12-20 million dollar a year contract. Go figure.
Monday, December 24, 2012
State of the Nation
Red Sox fans have become something akin to those brainwashed to hear the rants of their favorite political party. And one has to ask whether the Red Sox media coverage has become equally culpable.
The Sox have made a lot of moves this offseason. But as John Wooden reminded us, "never confuse activity with achievement."
The cornerstone move of the offseason was coming to an agreement with Mike Napoli. Napoli (when healthy) has been a productive player, received selection to one All-Star team, and among his 'similarity scores' has the immortal Duke Sims. All that being said, he's in medical limbo, as both parties work out contract terms after a hip issue appeared during his physical. In other words, the Sox "big" move is as yet not signed, sealed, and delivered.
Beginning 'up the middle' the Sox have a platoon catching situation with hopes pinned on the apotheosis of David Ross. Sox scribes have been pumping Ross' tires hard...Kelly Shoppach is one of the similar players to David Ross.
Sox fans have no gripes with perennial grinder Dustin Pedroia, who will have his annual replacement shortstop in Steven Drew. We can only hope that the Drew move works out anywhere close to as well as the Adrian Beltre contract year in Boston.
The Sox will have Jacoby Ellsbury in centerfield. Who is the 'real' Jacoby Ellsbury? Is he the MVP runnerup of 2011, or some incarnation of perennially-injured Tim Naehring? If Ellsbury can play anyway near as well as he thinks he is, then the Sox will have a world beater. Let's hope so.
Is the Sox' rotation good enough to compete in a division with the Yankees far superior rotation, Toronto's rebuild, and the ever-changing Rays? The projected starters of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront. Peter Gammons used to tell of Lester's burning desire to be great. Is that Lester the same guy? Buchholz appeared to separate from the problem duo of Josh Beckett and Lackey. Dempster is a .500 pitcher who has struggled in the AL (never mind the AL East), Lackey comes off injury, and Doubront had a 2012 that he can build off. But it looks like a rotation with at best a pair of 'twos', and three 'fours'. No offense, but Lester and Buchholz don't remind me of Koufax and Drysdale.
The Sox have promise at third with Will Middlebrooks, an expected platoon of Gomes and Kalish in left, and an overpaid Shane Victorino in right. The 'Glory Days' saw Rice, Lynn, and Evans in the outfield with a cameo from Yaz in left. . Gomes, Ellsbury, and Victorino are decaf to that trio.
The Sox are relying on statistical overachievement to allow them to compete. Sure, that might happen, but I wonder whether season ticket-holders are buying that. The Baseball Operations guys have all the tools like Win Shares and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to guide them, but I wonder if they have more faith or more hope.
If somebody asked you who had the highest WAR among Red Sox pitchers in 2012, you'd have to be Nostradamus to know. For those who didn't click through, the answer was Junichi Tazawa and Scott Atchison with 1.7.
The old saying goes "money can't play." Sox fans are expected to pony up among the highest dollars per game. Red Sox management can't claim that you get what you pay for.
The Sox have made a lot of moves this offseason. But as John Wooden reminded us, "never confuse activity with achievement."
The cornerstone move of the offseason was coming to an agreement with Mike Napoli. Napoli (when healthy) has been a productive player, received selection to one All-Star team, and among his 'similarity scores' has the immortal Duke Sims. All that being said, he's in medical limbo, as both parties work out contract terms after a hip issue appeared during his physical. In other words, the Sox "big" move is as yet not signed, sealed, and delivered.
Beginning 'up the middle' the Sox have a platoon catching situation with hopes pinned on the apotheosis of David Ross. Sox scribes have been pumping Ross' tires hard...Kelly Shoppach is one of the similar players to David Ross.
Sox fans have no gripes with perennial grinder Dustin Pedroia, who will have his annual replacement shortstop in Steven Drew. We can only hope that the Drew move works out anywhere close to as well as the Adrian Beltre contract year in Boston.
The Sox will have Jacoby Ellsbury in centerfield. Who is the 'real' Jacoby Ellsbury? Is he the MVP runnerup of 2011, or some incarnation of perennially-injured Tim Naehring? If Ellsbury can play anyway near as well as he thinks he is, then the Sox will have a world beater. Let's hope so.
Is the Sox' rotation good enough to compete in a division with the Yankees far superior rotation, Toronto's rebuild, and the ever-changing Rays? The projected starters of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront. Peter Gammons used to tell of Lester's burning desire to be great. Is that Lester the same guy? Buchholz appeared to separate from the problem duo of Josh Beckett and Lackey. Dempster is a .500 pitcher who has struggled in the AL (never mind the AL East), Lackey comes off injury, and Doubront had a 2012 that he can build off. But it looks like a rotation with at best a pair of 'twos', and three 'fours'. No offense, but Lester and Buchholz don't remind me of Koufax and Drysdale.
The Sox have promise at third with Will Middlebrooks, an expected platoon of Gomes and Kalish in left, and an overpaid Shane Victorino in right. The 'Glory Days' saw Rice, Lynn, and Evans in the outfield with a cameo from Yaz in left. . Gomes, Ellsbury, and Victorino are decaf to that trio.
The Sox are relying on statistical overachievement to allow them to compete. Sure, that might happen, but I wonder whether season ticket-holders are buying that. The Baseball Operations guys have all the tools like Win Shares and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to guide them, but I wonder if they have more faith or more hope.
If somebody asked you who had the highest WAR among Red Sox pitchers in 2012, you'd have to be Nostradamus to know. For those who didn't click through, the answer was Junichi Tazawa and Scott Atchison with 1.7.
The old saying goes "money can't play." Sox fans are expected to pony up among the highest dollars per game. Red Sox management can't claim that you get what you pay for.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Dumpster Diving
(BOSTON) Boston Red Sox representatives continue to meet with the negotiating team of Texas Rangers California Angels free agent outfielder Josh Hamilton.
WAIT! Did the Sox get the message, or is this the continuing disinformation spin coming from Yawkey Way?
The Sox, never to be outdone (or outspun) have concocted a Herman Cain-esque 13-13-13 plan, as if they don't have enough bad luck going to disparage triskaidekaphobia (spelling bee losahs groan here). The locals have negotiated with Ryan Dempster career 4.33 ERA with AL ERA over 5 last year, Shane "Better Days" Victorino, and Mike (My Aching Back) Napoli to low-term, high pay deals, although Napoli's is still pending. Google "career .500 pitcher", and there's a great chance Dempster is your poster child.
But is this off-season charade about reloading or posturing, as the posers hope for lightning in a bottle while drunk-dialing agents (fried chicken and beer being the near official foods of the Boston Red Sox) addicted to the number 13?
I'll acknowledge that I KNOW NOTHING. After all, I snickered when uber-agent Scott Boras suggested Jacoby "Mirror, Mirror" Ellsbury could get twenty million dollars a year. And I don't think that he meant TEN adjusted for playing half a season.
In a market that overpays mediocrity with astonishing regularity, anything is possible. Anibal Sanchez has a sub .500 career record, and just scored EIGHTY million dollars from the Detroit Tigers for five years. Clearly, when the numbers got over THIRTEEN, the Sox folded like an accordion. And by the way, Sanchez's next win will bring his career totals to 49.
By comparison, Ray Culp won 122 career games, Spaceman Bill Lee 119, and Reggie Cleveland 105. At age 28, Lee "fleeced" the Red Sox for 80,000 dollars as a pitcher who won 17 games and had a WAR of 2.1. Is Anibal Sanchez materially better than any of the aforementioned trio, or has Reefer Madness descended upon all of us in age of changing drug policy?
I won't pretend that I will forswear baseball in 2013, waiting for the anointed Killer B's of Barnes, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Brentz. But I remember waiting for Kevin Romine, Chuck Rainey, Win Remmerswaal, and Brian Rose. Maybe we'll someday see the Sox kiddie corps in a Major League all-star game or if unexpected longevity occurs for us, Cooperstown. But I'm not holding my breath.
As currently constituted, are the Sox any more than breakeven favorites to outpace the Orioles for fourth in the AL East behind Toronto, New York, and Tampa? Have the Red Sox led by Larry Lucchino and erstwhile surrogate Ben Cherington sucker-punched us all? It sure feels like it to me. If I want "Character Approved" I'll watch USA Network.
WAIT! Did the Sox get the message, or is this the continuing disinformation spin coming from Yawkey Way?
The Sox, never to be outdone (or outspun) have concocted a Herman Cain-esque 13-13-13 plan, as if they don't have enough bad luck going to disparage triskaidekaphobia (spelling bee losahs groan here). The locals have negotiated with Ryan Dempster career 4.33 ERA with AL ERA over 5 last year, Shane "Better Days" Victorino, and Mike (My Aching Back) Napoli to low-term, high pay deals, although Napoli's is still pending. Google "career .500 pitcher", and there's a great chance Dempster is your poster child.
But is this off-season charade about reloading or posturing, as the posers hope for lightning in a bottle while drunk-dialing agents (fried chicken and beer being the near official foods of the Boston Red Sox) addicted to the number 13?
I'll acknowledge that I KNOW NOTHING. After all, I snickered when uber-agent Scott Boras suggested Jacoby "Mirror, Mirror" Ellsbury could get twenty million dollars a year. And I don't think that he meant TEN adjusted for playing half a season.
In a market that overpays mediocrity with astonishing regularity, anything is possible. Anibal Sanchez has a sub .500 career record, and just scored EIGHTY million dollars from the Detroit Tigers for five years. Clearly, when the numbers got over THIRTEEN, the Sox folded like an accordion. And by the way, Sanchez's next win will bring his career totals to 49.
By comparison, Ray Culp won 122 career games, Spaceman Bill Lee 119, and Reggie Cleveland 105. At age 28, Lee "fleeced" the Red Sox for 80,000 dollars as a pitcher who won 17 games and had a WAR of 2.1. Is Anibal Sanchez materially better than any of the aforementioned trio, or has Reefer Madness descended upon all of us in age of changing drug policy?
I won't pretend that I will forswear baseball in 2013, waiting for the anointed Killer B's of Barnes, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Brentz. But I remember waiting for Kevin Romine, Chuck Rainey, Win Remmerswaal, and Brian Rose. Maybe we'll someday see the Sox kiddie corps in a Major League all-star game or if unexpected longevity occurs for us, Cooperstown. But I'm not holding my breath.
As currently constituted, are the Sox any more than breakeven favorites to outpace the Orioles for fourth in the AL East behind Toronto, New York, and Tampa? Have the Red Sox led by Larry Lucchino and erstwhile surrogate Ben Cherington sucker-punched us all? It sure feels like it to me. If I want "Character Approved" I'll watch USA Network.
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