Red Sox Reality Check

Johnny Damon turned down the Hub for the Motor City. Can't you see it now? The Dan Shaughnessy column comparing Boston and Detroit, yada, yada, yada. Player A has over 400 at bats this season. Player B has 255 at bats. Player A can't throw the ball better than my 22 year old daughter. Player B is a competent outfielder defensively. Player A has simply moved on from the Red Sox and Player B is trying to establish himself as a permanent professional ballplayer. Player A doesn't want to be in Boston and Player B appreciates the opportunity. Player A is Johnny Damon and Player B is Darnell McDonald.

Have you been paying attention? Tonight Ryan Kalish played center field for the Sox. His box score (3 0 0 0) does show much of an impact, does it? Early in the game, Kalish fielded a base hit into the gap and gunned the runner out at second, possibly saving a run. Historically, we've had some weak arms in center (Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury), so this is at least a temporary upgrade. Later, with runners on first and second and no out, he executed a sacrifice bunt perfectly, advancing the runners, who then scored on a Scutaro single. So, with "nothing" in the box score, Kalish made a significant contribution both offensively and defensively. Seeing is believing.

I'm not on the bandwagon, analytically anyway. But the 2010 season hasn't been all negative. If the season is a marathon not a sprint, then so we ask whether younger blood might help carry the team forward. Assessing the "youth" by position (ignoring the established 'younger' veterans in Youkilis (1B-3B) and Pedroia (2B), the Sox have (through the system) established more prospects. C - Saltalamacchia, Exposito, Lavarnaway, Ibarra (Wagner, Brown blocked?) 1B - Rizzo (young power hitter), Anderson (hitting better lately) Middle infield- Lowrie, Y. Navarro, Iglesias 3B- Middlebrooks OF- Kalish, Reddick, Lin (defensively) SP- established 5 starters, 2 very young (Lester, Buchholz), Doubront RP - Bard, Bowden (what will they do with Papelbon?) Top prospects- Kelly, Weiland, Fife, Ranaudo Power-hitting outfielders, especially right-handed, look to be the system 'deficiency'.

Dear Theo Epstein: Realistically, the Red Sox aren't buried, but are they dead? Tampa has 40 games to go, playing over .600 ball. If they continue to 'struggle' and win 20, they finish 94-48. To tie them, the Sox must win 25 of their final 39 to tie.  If Tampa even goes 22-18 (96 wins), then the Sox must go 27-12, in other words, play almost .700 ball down the stretch. Even if the Sox had their full roster, that's not happening. If the Sox don't beat Toronto the next two games, then Theo Epstein should think the unthinkable, sell 'em off. If you're not going to make a max effort to re-up Beltre (likely 4 by 60) and Martinez (maybe 4 by 10) and pay Papelbon 10 million (a total of 110 million), then maybe the Sox go into selling mode, in order to retool for 2011. Among Beltre, Martinez, and Papelbon, you should be able to get useful if not premium pieces, as you're not selling off junk, realizing that what you're not trading is quality but not...

How do you classify the 2010 Boston Red Sox campaign to date? Any answer has to be qualified, but how does this differ from any baseball season? Success and failure in baseball depends on many factors, including the proverbial 'bad bounces', health and injury, as well as over/underproduction by players, coaches, and management. Management : Although the franchise has a fiduciary and 'moral' duty to win every year, even Theo Epstein acknowledged 2010 to be a 'bridge' year. Transactions have to be judged over the long haul. So far, the insertion of numerous fill-ins, ranging from Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Eric Patterson, and most recently Ryan Kalish has overall exceeded expectations. Adrian Beltre has simply been a revelation. Few Red Sox in their wildest dreams could have anticipated the contribution of Bill Hall, and Marco Scutaro has for the most part stabilized the shortstop position. Acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia at lottery ticket prices gives...

"You're never as good as you look when you win...or as bad as you look when you lose." - Earl Weaver The Red Sox continue to confound and confuse. To their credit, they haven't gone into the tank when they could with major injuries at C (2), 1B, 2B, LF (2), CF, and P(Beckett, Matsuzaka). Conversely, the 'run prevention' strategy hasn't materialized, with continual bad fielding, bad judgement, and inconsistent relief pitching. Dan Le Batard makes it clear today in the Miami Herald that most journalists simply haven't adequately prepared, and become critical, simply because that's the easy way.  Now for the gratuitous comments: Sox fans bemoaned the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury. Who's crying now? Getting your timing back mid-season isn't so easy. Josh Beckett hasn't had the greatest command today...but throwing some more off-speed pitches could help...although maybe he's concerned about the running game. Fuggedaboutit. Not happe...