Red Sox Reality Check

    - Simon and Garfunkel, Mrs. Robinson The Red Sox went quietly into the night. A team that led the majors in runs scored and OPS didn't hit. Seven runs and an OPS of .655 doesn't cut it. The team that was fourth in the AL in ERA (4.00) during the regular season clocked in at 5.04 in the playoffs.  You can't argue about sample size. That's the playoffs, short series that you have to win.  All that being said, I see no tears, feel little angst, and hear almost no discussion about collapse and failure. Why?  The Patriots are 4-1 and Tom Brady is back at the controls. The Bruins will make the playoffs. Jeremy Jacobs promised. The Celtics have Brad Stevens, Al Horford, IT4 and a plethora of small ball ingredients that are in the 'top three' of the Eastern Conference. Is that the answer?  After enduring the eighty-six year drought, the Sox won three championships in a decade. Sox fans got accustomed to if not spoiled by titles. The sense...

Let the second guessing begin. The Red Sox haven't even heard "Play Ball" and the controversy has already been teed up.  The Sox have overcome instability in the rotation and the bullpen and to a lesser degree the hole at the Hot Corner. Pablo Sandoval gave way to Travis Shaw (post All-Star break .194/.259/.360/.619), who is now supplanted by Brock Holt (post All-Star break .253/.318/.367/.685).  Any talk of the Panda Postseason was premature speculation at its most disheartening.  Sox skipper John Farrell has slotted Holt in the two spot in the order while dropping Xander Bogaerts (post All-Star break .253/.317/.412/.729) to sixth. Oh, the horror!  Who's going to win? Legendary hoop coach Don Meyer would answer, "It's not who you play, it's how you play."  Baseball isn't a sport where elevating your intensity level translates to improved performance. Getting over 'jacked' won't translate to more 'jacks'.  The specul...

Physicians spend a lifetime training to diagnose and treat illness and injury. After obtaining a college degree with cut-throat premeds, physicians spend four years in medical school, and often five to eight additional years in specialty and subspecialty training. Then they have to pass certifying and recertifying exams to demonstrate some standard of competence. It's hard to get it right even when you have the opportunity to examine the patient directly and access medical testing.  Evidently, it's a waste of time. The Radio Doctors can skip that final decade of training and experience and jump directly into practice. "What do you mean?"  When Mike Napoli injured his fourth finger on his left hand in May 2014 , Tony Massarotti proclaimed something to the effect of "pop it in and play". How did that work out? Napoli had his least productive season in years. Why?  Although all of our fingers are important, grip strength is largely a function of the out...

As of this morning, the Red Sox have eighty-four wins. That was my preseason projection. Sometimes, you take your medicine and move on.  What went well? The Red Sox have gotten MVP caliber seasons from Mookie Betts and David Ortiz and a possible Cy Young performance from Rick Porcello. Sign him to a long-term extension? Done, by the vilified Ben Cherington, now of the Toronto Blue Jays.  How good has Betts been? Jacoby Ellsbury's magnificent 2011 season carried an 8.1 WAR . With two weeks left in the regular season, Betts is at 8.5. Willie Mays in 1954, at age 23, had a WAR of 10.6. Certainly, that's not saying Betts will be Willie Mays; it's just a reference point.  I think of a WAR of 5 as all-star caliber play. Anything over 8 puts you at a possible MVP-type season. 10 is god-like. Babe Ruth had nine WAR seasons over 10. Willie Mays had six. Mickey Mantle had three. Carl Yastrzemski's 1967 campaign was 10.2. His next highest season was 8.2.  Since returnin...

The Yoan Moncada countdown is on. You won't convince me that Travis Shaw (three extra base hits, five RBI last night) isn't feeling it. I won't suggest that Shaw has rested on his laurels; maybe competition will help him focus.  Supposedly, Moncada's English has advanced very well. I don't know whether that's an advantage. Were I sharing media advice with him, I'd suggest some shoulder shrugging and a big dose of "I don't know." Expecting a lot from a kid isn't realistic. But with John Farrell seeing his managerial mortality dwindling, he has an entirely new attitude toward young players. His perceived mistreatment of a younger Bogaerts and Bradley is unquestionable. But a drowning man who refuses a life preserver is not simple; he is a fool. Of course, a drowning man wearing a bullpen anchor needs more than a life preserver.  In a way, I feel a little bad for Farrell. A little. He has 'mean reversion' going for him on David P...

Home on the Range Oh give me a home where the buffalo roam, Where the deer and the antelope play, Where seldom is heard a discouraging word, And the skies are not cloudy all day. NESN is not an independent voice, nor should it be. NESN is the broadcasting and propaganda arm of the Red Sox. And the skies are not cloudy all day. Dave O'Brien, the Sox play-by-play announcer, is the Minister of Propaganda. He is the Anti-Dave (above). And the skies are not cloudy all day. The sky is not falling; nor is the hyperbole. Yes, the Red Sox have enjoyed some outstanding performances this season - the timeless David Ortiz, the rebirth of Dustin Pedroia, the youthful exuberance of Mookie Betts, and the Comeback player of the century, Rick Porcello.  My 84 win projection will fall far short of the Sox 2016 totals. But all is not well on Yawkey Way. Frankly, as Evan Longoria's homer sailed majestically out of Fenway last night, I practically expected Minister ...

What, me worry?  There is no Easy Button for the 2016 Boston Red Sox. The lowly Rays come into town and unlike a recent victory sparked by Clay Buchholz pitching and David Ortiz' running, last night authorities rounded up 'the usual suspects' with Buchholz surrendering a game winning homer to Evan Longoria.  Championship delusions? These are pitching statistics from the 7th inning on. Dave Dombrowski's reputation was the inability to build a bullpen. To be fair, the breakdown lane of Carson Smith (bad delivery), Koji Uehara (age), and Junichi Tazawa (overuse) only partly belong to the Sox GM.  Last night it was the solar eclipse of Luke Maile's second career home run that set the stage for Longoria's dagger.  Championship teams are made of sterner stuff. But no worries. The Sox are working diligently on a new slogan, "hey, we're not last!" 

Red Sox fans endured a drought of epic proportions from 1918 to 2004. Occasionally, the baseball gods would, like Lucy to Charlie Brown, pull the football at the last moment to assure maximal frustration.  But Sox fans were rewarded with three titles in a decade before getting the twin killing of last place finishes of 2014 and 2015. Sox fans endured a pair of unwatchable, painful, pitiful seasons.  But the Red Sox franchise, while not always champions, always champions marketing. They're never going to go the way of the Pale Hose.  At least we don't suffer the indignity of a new stadium logo pointing south. And we don't have to go to Raytheon Stadium or Fidelity Field...not that I doubt for a moment that the Sox wouldn't consider it.  But what really matters is the product on the field. I haven't heard it but maybe the organization has proclaimed that anything less than a playoff appearance creates a failure of biblical proportion. They certainly hav...

Shaw Nuff. Travis Shaw delivered a three-run homer tonight in Atlanta (not included in statistics below). Shaw isn't making any reservations for Cooperstown, but he's been solid in the early going (small sample size). Back in the day, I used a simple formula for production (R + RBI - HR)/Games. Coming into tonight Shaw was 15/19 and as of now its 18/20. Anything approaching unity (1) is spectacular. For illustration, in 1967 Carl Yastrzemski had 112 runs, 44 homers, and 121 RBI in 161 games (189/161). Jim Rice's rookie year, he had 92 runs, 22 homers, 102 RBI in 144 games (172/144). Rico Petrocelli's best year (1969) he had 92 runs, 40 homers, and 97 RBI in 154 games (149/154). Last season Shaw had 31 runs, 13 homers, and 36 RBI in 65 games (54/65). By comparison, Pablo Sandoval scored 43 runs, 10 homers, and 47 RBI in 126 games (80/126). Add in that Shaw has been in the upper quintile of third basemen defensivel y and Shaw has made a compelling argument fo...

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…" - Charles Dickens, "A Tale of Two Cities." It was a 20 million dollar mistake multiplied by four. The Red Sox acquired Rick Porcello and paid through the nose for him.  The right-hander who seemed automatic to win double digits had a disastrous season for the Red Sox including fifteen losses, a negative ERA+, and a nickname not to be repeated from sports radio.  His 2016 debut was unspectacular but still got him a win.  But he began to turn it around on the Ides of April, which coincided with the return of Christian Vazquez. Since that time, he's gone 3-0 with three quality starts, and an ERA of 2.75 with 23 strikeouts and 4 walks. The Red Sox are only 4-3 in Va...

Forget about the money. If we have 'fielding independent pitching', then maybe we need money independent pitching. Control what you can control (evaluation) as the contract is already in place. There's no judgment applied to chicken and beer or anything else.  First, there are the raw numbers, tenth year in the majors, sub 4 ERA and good winning percentage (poor way to judge pitching). 2010 was Buchholz's best year with a spike in 2013 curtailed by injury...which is always his story. His adjusted ERA+ is just over 100, meaning he's been just slightly above average for his career. Discounting this season, Buchholz had 44 wins in the past five seasons ...just under NINE per year (yeah, I just said don't judge wins). Including this season, however embryonic, Wade Miley has 45 wins and pitched at least 190 innings four times (straw man argument!). Steven Wright has a better chance to be an innings eater than Clay, who has never thrown 190 innings (second straw m...

"You are what your record says you are." - Bill Parcells The Red Sox have completed a tenth of the season and voila' it's the Fortune 500 once again. They're making a fortune and playing .500. Why?  The rubber-meets-the-road offensive statistic is runs scored.  Adjusted for games played, the Sox lead the league in runs. The replacements at the corners, Hanley Ramirez and Travis Shaw haven't been an issue.  Defensively, they had a failed eyeball test in Blake Swihart, but had enough insight to realign their catching priorities. They swapped out Swihart for Christian Vazquez, which helped but couldn't resolve the mole hill.  Ace or no ace, the early returns have failed.  K/BB ratios tend to be more predictive of future ERA than ERA itself, so maybe there's hope. But the roster of Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Wright, and TBA hasn't delivered.  The starters' failure surprisingly lies first at the feet of David Price and the ov...

In his landmark book Up the Organization, Robert Townsend discusses three important principles. 1) Be honest, 2) Presume the competition is listening, and 3) Don't forecast.  The honesty principle jives with Jim Collins' "Brutal Reality", where one must examine a business as objectively as possible. First, we must make certain assumptions, ignoring factors like injury and extreme deviations from 'average'. Both assumptions suffer inaccuracy woefully.  We can examine run generation, run prevention, and the combination. The upside bats (where the runs will come from) should include Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and David Ortiz. The 'steady' expectations can include Dustin Pedroia (at lower production), Blake Swihart, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. The GOK (God only knows) production belongs to third base, left field, and Hanley Ramirez.  Last season the Red Sox scored 748 runs, fourth in the AL, but 143 runs less than the Blue Jays. The problem for the R...

When the Red Sox welcomed Pablo Sandoval to The Hub, they expected The Batman . Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.  The Batman's utility belt didn't fit anymore.  Sox fans never demanded a Ferrari. Many of us would have been entirely content with the 1966 Batmobile in running order. We expected a capable sidekick.  But, alas, we got Robbin', who hoodwinked us for $19,750,000 and had minus 1.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  We wanted "kapow". All we got was "kerplunk".  We need The Batman.  We need a hero not a WAR below zero. 

Brock Holt is a nice player. He fills in capably around the diamond, a scrappy, hustling ballplayer. Manager John Farrell announced that Holt will be the Red Sox' main left fielder.  Last year he was the Sox lone selectee for baseball's "Summer Classic", the All-Star game.  In the equivalent of two 'full' campaigns with the Red Sox he has six home runs and eighty-five RBI. In the same vein, he averages about two WAR (if you divide three seasons into two). He was 49th in WAR last season, ahead of Jackie Bradley, Jr. (2.6 to 2.2) but with over 500 plate appearances, about double Bradley's.  After the All-Star break, Holt was .265/.311/.341/.652.  He's the guy that some will say, "I wish we had eight more of" on the field. Count me out on that one, unless someone is looking for the early 1960's Boston Red Sox. Hustle alone doesn't win ball games. Talent and hustle win ball games.  Maybe the Red Sox and manager Joh...

Leaders find solutions and there's no doubt about who's in charge of the Boston Red Sox. Ownership hired Dave Dombrowski to 'fix it' and the solution can't be fielding the "highest priced" players instead of the best players.  Yes, "sample size" matters. Nobody is installing Travis Shaw in Cooperstown or forgetting that Brock Holt doesn't wear well over the course of the marathon that is the baseball season. But if the 'eye test' tells you that they give you the best chance to WIN TODAY, that's what matters. So, if Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo sit, they sit...and get paid.  Sports is a meritocracy, but embedded within are fragile egos and "that's not how we do it here" attitudes of "professionals". Veterans who see other veterans displaced can become petulant. "You don't lose your job to injury." But you do lose your job when your conditioning prevents you from fielding a ground ...

"Spahn and Sain and pray for rain." The Red Sox should be so lucky. "Price and pray..." When the Red Sox acquired Rick Porcello on a trial basis (for Yoenis Cespedes), the heavens were unmoved. But the decision to grant a Godfather contract to the former Tiger proved the adage that 'the high cost of mediocrity' kills you. I believe in redemption and that Spring Training performance doesn't define you, but the back end of the rotation (everything after Price) hasn't exactly boosted confidence in the staff. Even though the Red Sox haven't lost every day, it feels that way. Maybe Rick Porcello was working on 'grooving pitches' but if he weren't then the trick's on the Red Sox as they pay down his future mansions. At least Porcello takes the ball. After Price, Clay Buchholz has unreliable ability, Eduardo Rodriguez is unavailable, Porcello is reliably unreliable, and the best option at five might be an untested knuckleballe...

I'm not a huge John Farrell fan. I don't like the way he's handled young players, with an intransigent support of underachieving veterans. I don't believe that it's a coincidence that Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, and Swihart flourished after Farrell's departure. Do I know there's cause and effect? No. It's just intelligent speculation. For a personnel guy and former pitching coach, Farrell has not overwhelmed there for the most part.  But I form my opinion on what action between the lines reveals. The organizational decision to bring him back after successful struggles against cancer is totally understandable.  But we should evaluate professional athletes and coaches on effort, personal performance, and their impact on the team. Just as we should evaluate scribes on their journalism, not on their lives.  When family issues or personal matters arise off the field, they deserve privacy. There's no role for locker room talk, snickers, and sanctimonio...

“An army of asses led by a lion is better than an army of lions led by an ass” - George Washington The Red Sox must rely on their offensive leadership...but who exactly are they? The Sox are moving away from their recent Moneyball roots. But is the problem analytics or identifying and paying players most likely to produce?  Establishing a cause and effect relation for statistics isn't easy. For example, we know that the most productive players invariably have productive statistics. But we can't a priori know that players who have had excellent statistics will continue to do so.  Age, injury, illness, lack of motivation, personal problems (e.g. alcohol or substance abuse), or statistical variation can change productivity.  Consider the complex decision-making surrounding free agent Jacoby Ellsbury.  At the end of the 2013 season, the Red Sox had to decide their commitment to their free agent outfielder. In his "peak" (age 27) season, he was runne...

            "Dinner Out is a go." Mookie Betts organized a team gathering at a Japanese restaurant. He prepared to pick up the tab for forty-five teammates, but Dustin Pedroia and other unnamed veterans spared him that cup.  How important is team chemistry in baseball? Old-timers remember the " We Are Family " Pittsburgh Pirates of 1979. But slightly older fans also remember the 1977 dugout confrontation between Billy Martin and Reggie Jackson.  Martin had to be restrained from going after Jackson .  A little over four months later, the Yankees captured yet another World Series.  Dave Roberts has a pragmatic view of baseball chemistry .  "Winning definitely bands a team together. It's easy to have good chemistry when you're winning." Sometimes chemistry occurs when players have a common enemy, like the manager or ownership. The fictional representation of that was Tom Berenger's "Major League".  A baseball team...

"No progress occurs without change, but not all change is progress." - John Wooden It's all good. Let's put on some smiley faces today and reexamine the Bosox 2016. David Price showed up over a week early, saying and doing all the right things. He and David Ortiz hugged it out, burying the hatchet.  GM Dave Dombrowski praised 23-year-old outfielder Mookie Betts for organizing and sponsoring a team dinner. Maybe Dunkin Donuts should show Betts some love for being an exemplary teammate.  Clay Buchholz threw batting practice and there were no injury qualifiers included in the discussion.  MLB is modifying sliding rules, which should eliminate rolling blocks and just maybe keep the Sox dp combination of Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts healthy. As an aside, not only should the runner and batter be declared out, but the violating slider should be tossed.  Henry Owens was all smiles as he battles to earn a spot at the back of the rotation. The sampl...