Red Sox Reality Check

Beat LA! The Dodgers checked into Ye Olde Ballpark to face the tail end of the rotation in newcomer Felix (the Cat) Doubron and Tim Wakefield and the Sox have closed to within one game of a tie for the top of the AL East. 1. Revenge of the Turds. Not really, but his Manholiness delivered a Wakefield butterfly into the departed left field nets. Fortunately, like Manny it was a Solo Shot. 2. Did You Know? Tim McCarver played MLB for about a thousand seasons, but in one unglorious ended one for the Sox (1967), McCarver finished second in the NL MVP race, socking 14 homers and 69 RBI for the Cards. 3. Slugging fools. The American League OPS leaders. The "run prevention" crew from Beantown has four members, including a trio in the top 12. Yankee third sacker A-Rod, sans steroids checks in at number thirty. The Yankees and the Royals both have a pair in the top seventeen. 4. All-Stars? Distribution requirements aside (at least one from every team, and the mandatory Yankee ...

How negative can one be when the Red Sox have the third highest winning percentage in baseball and have moved within a pair of games of the leading Rays and Yankees? 1. Rohring Start. Slim lefty Felix Doubront started out strong, but a series of Dodger hits and Sox misses led to three tying runs. Doubront didn't make anyone forget Jim Kaat covering first base, and Mike Cameron did a Lonnie Smith imitation to make matters worse. Okay, so it wasn't a no-hitter into the ninth, but how much of a career did Billy Rohr have? Doubront has shown a live fastball, a willingness to pitch to contact, and an intention to try to control both sides of the plate with the fastball. Curveball? Not so much, so far. He has a rep of holding runners on, but looks to have a slow delivery to the plate. 2. Nava Ho! Daniel Nava came in hitting .444 in a small sample size. He may be getting even more PT, with J.D. Drew limping off after catching a sinking liner. Drew's Naehringesque health status...

Sometimes as a fan you have a player in your midst who you simply don't appreciate. Ergo, I ask the question "how good is Kevin Youkilis?" Despite the Greek god of walks moniker, Youkilis isn't primarily a 'bases on balls' machine, although he does lead the AL in walks. Here are some statistics that might give you pause and some general comments: I'll argue that Youkilis is the Sox best player and one of the top five in the AL. Why? Youkilis has won a Gold Glove, although his fielding isn't his best attribute. He has finished in the top 6 in AL MVP BOTH of the past two seasons. He has been in the top 8 in the AL in "Wins Above Replacement" each of the past three years. Among active players he is eleventh in on base percentage. He has been in the top five in SLUGGING percentage in the AL each of the past three years. He has been in the top four in On Base Slugging percentage (OPS) in each of the past three years. He currently is th...

The Red Sox have more or less passed the first two-fifths of the annual regular season curriculum, trailing both the Yankees and the Rays by four games (five in the loss column).  Realistically, perhaps they deserve an "incomplete" more than a grade, because they've labored for most of the season without two starting outfielders and their erstwhile ace, Josh Beckett. Writing about the Sox creates special problems today, as attending my daughters' college graduation this weekend kept me away from the action. Suffice it to say, it was another 'Meatloaf" weekend, as in 'Two Out of Three Ain't Bad." The Sox have moved the "plus-minus" rating in the right direction, and the "Run Prevention" strategy seems to be working out better lately as well. They have lowered their team ERA to 4.36 (ninth in the AL) and despite early defensive woes on the left side of the infield, they are now fourth in the AL in both fielding percentage an...

Here's the extremely passionate response from MLB to an email I sent them concerning the Galarraga perfect game. First paragraph, the commissioners statement (already read). Second paragraph, "We will not issue further comments as of this moment." It's a business, a multi-billion dollar business, and I am just one 'customer' with pretty much no impact on the business. If I had some wonderfully scandalous and ethically defective information about a player or a team, I wouldn't release it...naturally, "in the best interests of the game." Heck, baseball looked the other way about its problems virtually until Congressional inquiry (and concern over loss of exemption of anti-trust status?) supervened. Just ignore the problem and it will go away...until it comes up in the final inning of the World Series?

Pitcher A: Pitcher B: Probably the two most important categories are K/BB and WHIP ratio. Looks like Pitcher A has been more effective than Pitcher B. Just sayin'. Pitcher A: Daisuke Matsuzaka (now with 5 wins) Pitcher B: John Lackey

The question of the use of replay won't seem to go away. The first question that has to be asked is "do you care about getting it right?" If you don't care, and you're a human error is an important, essential part of the game, then the discussion could end. Don and Jerry have had a logically inconsistent discussion about how you can't change, how it's difficult to call sometimes, and then talk about adding a fifth umpire (they could use a central location to reduce costs) and agree that college football seems to make the decisions quickly. It's the 'one-handed economist' argument, that there is no 'on the other hand'. Meanwhile, back in Cleveland, the Sox have created some opportunities, big Papi beats out a double play grounder (no replay needed), and Josh Reddick seems to have come alive. Reddick has athleticism and a live bat, but will he hit enough? Didn't J.D. Drew have his ALCS slam against Fausto Carmona? I think so. Da...

It's a new week, and the world hasn't come apart because baseball commissioner* "He Who Must Never Be Named" refuses to acknowledge what the whole world knows, that Armando Galarraga pitched the 21st perfect game in Major League Baseball history. Or should we call it Major Denial League Baseball. The commissioner's stubbornness casts a blight upon the game, in the same manner that performance-enhancing drugs (wink wink, nod nod) did. Failure to act can be a sign of strength, of commitment, or of principle. But equally, indifference to a wrong has the appearance of weakness and cowardice. Adherence to tradition isn't anything new, and it took years for replay to penetrate other major sports. But technological advances, and widespread gambling on sports, forced recalcitrant ownership to reevaluate. And don't expect any to retreat from their adoption of 'getting it right'. Hardcore baseball fans can simply recognize Galarraga's perfect game,...

Not many Sox fans would argue that the season so far has been anything approaching success. Yet throw away the angst and include the 6-9 mediocrity against the Yankees and the Rays and the Sox remain in striking distance. Here's the AL team versus team grid. The good has come from the outstanding (overall) pitching of Lester and Buchholz at the top of the rotation and the setup-closer combination of Bard and Papelbon. Adrian Beltre has overachieved, David Ortiz has outperformed expectations, and Kevin Youkilis remains one of the top players in the league. Jason Varitek has performed a backup role very effectively. Of the newcomers, Bill Hall has shown versatility and some pop. Mediocrity has come from the entirety of the outfield, and Victor Martinez has turned his season around recently. John Lackey hasn't found a groove as his command hasn't been there, although most Sox fans probably expect him to rebound. Dustin Pedroia had a tremendous April and has struggled at ...

Paul Simon had a classic hit 50 ways to leave your lover. The Red Sox have sought to establish 50 ways to lose a ballgame. I won't try to name fifty...this time. Fear Factor. The Bogar man. "Send him in Tim" Bogar might be the greatest guy in the world, but he's cost the Sox a couple of games already.  Collateral Damage. The collision between Adrian Beltre and Jacoby Ellsbury cost the Sox their leadoff hitter for the first half of the season. It happens. Year of Living Dangerously. Will Victor Martinez overcome a slow start? Pap-per Chase. A pair of Yankee homers in the ninth did Papelbon dirty. Wild thing. Daisuke Matsuzaka, a.k.a. 'The Nibbler' drives fans to drink.  "Jeremy." Like Michael Jackson, one wonders what the glove is for.  "Speed." The Sox mostly don't have it, with Ellsbury sidelined, with good baserunners including Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, and Beltre.  The Running Man. Although it's gone better lately, oppos...

Armando Galarraga lost a perfect game last night, what was the 21st perfect game in major league baseball history. Umpire Jim Joyce called a routine ground out a base hit, as though he were unaware of the historical significance of it all...or just oblivious. Joyce was man enough to acknowledge his mistake, apologizing to the Tiger pitcher after the game. Commissioner Bud Selig has the power to change the error, using the best interests of baseball clause. What keeps him from doing so? Is it tradition, stupidity, possible testosterone deficiency, or fear of opening  Pandora's Box? Tradition and racism kept generations of African-Americans out of baseball. The tradition argument falls apart when acknowledging baseball's current use of replay for determination of disputed home runs, introduction of the designated hitter, changing the field dimensions by lowering the mound itself, and other revisions that have occurred in baseball. Stubbornness is hardly unique to Seli...

1. Tired Act . The play of the night, maybe play of the year comes as Armando Galarraga of the Tigers gets denied a perfect game on a blown call at first base. Hard to see what the umpire saw, as it seems the quality of umpiring reaches an all-time low. Yes, it's not the World Series, but an epic performance gets trashed by subhuman error. We can point out Jim Joyce (the first base umpire), but the umps are lucky they have replay to bail them out on homers, because they're overruled regularly. Joyce's best shot would be a tearful apology post-game...not happening. And no, I don't have a fantasy team. 2. Curling . The Matsuzaka "ups and downs" lives on as Daisuke allows three tainted runs in the first inning, aided by Jeremy Hermida's defense, only to get the Sox into the 7th inning with a 4-3 lead. If Earl Weaver became a "two pack" a day habit because of Don Stanhouse, then Terry Francona will be "Prilosec" as Matsuzaka gives him an...

The Sox faced a "must win" against Zach Greinke and the Royals, and Clay Buchholz nailed down his seventh win before the 578th consecutive Fenway sellout. 1. Fan Friendly . Here's the 'fan's eye view from my seats, as my daughter Julia, home from California had bought tickets to take the old man. Unlike the last time we went together in 2004, there was no profanity, no loudmouthed drunks nearby, and the whole experience (including a win) was much better. 2. Momentum . The saying about "momentum lasting as long as the next day's pitcher" applied in full, as Buchholz made pitches when he had to, and the bullpen and timely defense kept the Royals off the board. From our seats, judging balls and strikes was impossible, but the strike zone seemed small. Okay, so it wasn't a perfect game like Roy Halladay's today, but when was the last time you were at a 1-0 game at Fenway? I expected you wouldn't remember either. 3. First Timer . The fam...

After entering the Alternate Reality of the 2010: Lost Season, the Sox overwhelmed the Rays and restored order to chaos. Meanwhile, what do the stats say. 1. Belted . What a difference a day makes for Adrian Beltre, who now sits in the top 20 in OPS in the AL, ahead of...Joe Mauer and A-Rod (sans PEDs). Twelve total bases last night didn't hurt AB. Maybe A-Rod has too many extra-curriculars in play. Ty Wigginton? But what this shows is how dominant a hitter that Kevin Youkilis has become. 2. Fielding Bible . The Red Sox chased the "run prevention" theme in the off-season, which sounded good, until it didn't work, at least for the first quarter of the season. Fielding percentage can be a misleading stat, as it doesn't account for other types of defensive misplays, like balls bouncing past you off walls, missing cutoffs, poor range, and so forth. I think Hawk Harrelson had a 1.000 percentage one season, and nobody was handing him a Gold Glove. I'm not real...

The Red Sox shutout the Rays tonight 2-0 to consolidate their recent strength. In the past seven outings (per NESN), the Sox have six quality starts, a 1.69 ERA, and 7.1 innings per start. Jon Lester got his fifth win and lowered his ERA to 3.15 and continues to creep down his WHIP ratio, already in the top 15 in the AL. Lester only lasted six innings between nine strikeouts and five walks, but allowed only a single hit. The pen pals of Delcarmen, Bard, and Papelbon combined to close out the Rays without a hit the rest of the way. Papelbon notched his eleventh save with a fastball up into the mid 90's, including taking B.J. Upton out with heat upstairs to close out the game. Papelbon's strikeout to walk ratio has been continually falling through the past years, and we'll see whether that's a durable trend. As noted before, the Sox believe K/BB ratio predicts future ERA better than current ERA itself. Jacoby Ellsbury continues to have soreness and that gives Darn...

Maybe the pressure was off for the Sox with the Celtics and '24' the headliners. In any event, they came into the Trop led by Clay Buchholz who had a quality start (6 innings, one earned run) en route to his sixth win. Buchholz among the AL ERA leaders, now 6-3 with a 3.07 ERA. Not hard to see why Tampa is in first place...all five starters among the elite. The Sox outhomered the Rays 2-1, with David Ortiz (9) and Kevin Youkilis going grove yard. Additionally, the Sox had another errorless game and have crept up to 5th in the AL in fielding percentage, just one component of good overall defense. Minor Inconvenience . The Sox upper minor league teams struggled, with the PawSox garnering only one hit in a shutout loss, and Portland getting whacked 7-2. Salem was idle.

The Sox took two of three from the Phillies and have clearly played better baseball lately. 1. Yooook . The Sox fans traveling down the coast got rewarded seeing one of the best hitters in MLB today, no not Chase Utley, but Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis slammed a homer off Phils ace Roy Halladay, whom the Sox have handled about as well as anyone. Youkilis' production brought his OPS to 1.071 and has an other-worldly on-base-percentage of .459. 2. Wake up call . Tim Wakefield left his angst in the clubhouse and delivered eight innings of shutout baseball. Wakefield, who has pitched for the Sox since God's dog was eating Puppy Chow, lowered his ERA to 4.44 and got his first victory of the season. 3. Avatar . Mike Cameron will be bringing his major-league avatar back to the Sox any day now, after a three-hit, walk off homer game today. Darnell McDonald did a very serviceable job in Cameron's injury-absence, although Terry Francona must be feeling better about getting his star...

The Sox continue inter-league play facing the Phillies and the Phanatic. Here's my son, Conor, with the Phanatic at a recent Sunday Night Baseball game 1. Good, Better, Best. The Sox continue to struggle against the better teams in baseball, and Philadelphia certainly qualifies. The Philles are the most "American League" team in the NL with a highly potent lineup, including Monster Masher Ryan Howard and arguably the best offensive second baseman in baseball, Chase Utley (no disrespect to Robinson Cano, an AL MVP candidate. 2. Lackey Struggles . In his last three starts (18 innings), Lackey, a control pitcher, has yielded fifteen earned runs (ERA 7.5) and more worrisome, twenty-three hits and twelve walks, with a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) approaching two. I don't think anyone is worried about Lackey, but he needs to find his release point to get consistent. 3. Ellsbury Do-boy . Jacoby Ellsbury returns after experiencing multiple rib fracture...

The Red Sox rallied from a 5-0 deficit at the new House of Horrors, to split their two game set with the Yankees. The "bridge" Red Sox, with young veterans like Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester, contends with the older, more often disenchanted, "expendable" Red Sox, the Wakefield, Varitek, Ortiz, and Lowell class... The 'generational' conflict breaks no unique ground. In business, young turks find ways to push old lions aside, and I've seen (in the military) a figurative coup d'etat where a young Navy Captain managed to displace by politics and title an older statesman physician. The 'victim' in this Greek tragedy isn't ownership or Theo Epstein, but one Terry Francona, whose legendary 'closed door scrubbing' has kept the family laundry presentable for years, even with the challenges of Hall of Fame bound prima donas surrounding him. But when the 'family' starts throwing mud pies, then the only rational policy becomes s...

How many times have you said, "that's it, I'm not going to watch these guys anymore." Admit it, you've said it, but then like some crack addict, you're back watching NESN, reading Boston Dirt Dogs, and arguing about it at the water cooler. Is it possible? Can you really give up watching something that you care about but that makes you crazy? I did it for CNBC (Tout TV), the folks trying to sell you that stocks only go up, and that everything is normal, and you can trust Wall Street. Haven't watched them since the end of 2008. But the Sawx? Can I live without watching Dice-K diddle around the strike zone, Tim "Send 'em in" Bogar at third, Marco (I've got a better arm than he does) Scutaro, and the rest? Sure, I'd miss Dustin Pedroia's feisty play and Youkilis cursing himself out for a nonproductive at-bat. And I'd miss J.D. Drew's sweet swing, "Sweet Caroline", and "Dirty Water". I mean, I live b...