Red Sox Reality Check

Lots of factors go into business decisions, ranging from performance to potential to dollars. 1. Kalish and Hermida. Jeremy Hermida gets DFA'd, hardly surprising when the former first round draft choice did nothing to dispel the "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" rap. After a torrid start, Hermida didn't hit and looked worse than that afield. Kalish can run and play defense, and it wouldn't take a lot of production to surpass the former Marlin. Kalish had two hits, a run scored and an RBI in his debut...pretty good story to tell his grandchildren someday. 2. How do you spell relief? The Sox will try to cobble together middle relief with Scott Atchison and some combination of Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront down the stretch. The low budget but low sacrifice approach as they don't mortgage the farm with prospects for suspects. 3. Catch as catch can. Jarrod Saltamacchia developed Steve Blass Disease (a.k.a. the yips) and has been working t...

No, I'm not talking about Jim Bouton's sequel to the irreverent Ball Four . And I'm not disparaging the job Terry Francona has done with an injured lineup, a starting rotation only now coming together, and a bullpen solid at the back end and largely sordid at the front end. The Boston Red Sox 2010, intriguing, playing hard, but crippled by injuries and an untimely West Coast trip that made fans (the ones not on vacation) tune in to bedtime not baseball. This might be the best starting rotation the Sox have had in my lifetime, with a potential someday Hall of Famer in progress (Jon Lester), two very high end starters (Beckett and Lackey), a guy with absolutely filthy stuff (Buchholz), and the enigmatic but talented foreign important, Matsuzaka. The excitement on the bases has been a no-show from injury and half the 'soul' of the team (Dustin Pedroia) kills himself to get back on the field, but can't hurry the process. It's a season where the fans have d...

Sigh.

The unofficial arm of the Boston Red Sox, a.k.a. The American College of Radiology has scientific guidelines on the use of imaging in the diagnosis of rib fractures. Really. CT scans are remarkably effective in detecting chest trauma. (Click the scan to enlarge and see the rib fractures) But imaging studies won't necessarily tell us when a 'worker' can return to his 'usual duties'. A construction worker, laborer (doing heavy lifting), or professional athlete subjected to repeated trauma isn't going to respond the same way as a journalist or a doctor. So what we don't know are 1) the facts (how completely Jacoby Ellsbury has recovered) or 2) the context, as in are there other factors souring the relationship between Ellsbury and management. Throw Scott Boras into the mix, and we get more heat and no light. So we lack the facts and have too many 'beliefs' based on just about nothing.  So what else is new?

The Red Sox brass had to celebrate what they'd built, resigning Josh Beckett, acquiring John Lackey, and developing Clay Buchholz, with four out pitches (95 mph heat, 12-6 curve, devastating change, and recently branded cutter). But the gem of the staff is the 26 year-old lefter from Tacoma. Battling professional hitters must seem easy after enduring cancer chemotherapy. This season Lester leads Sox hurlers with eleven wins, and leads the AL in starts, wins above replacement, and hits allowed per nine innings. Over the past two and a half seasons, he is 42-17, with 501 strikeouts in 513.2 innings. And he's getting better before our eyes, controlling both sides of the plate, using the cutter against right-handers, and developing another out pitch with his change-up. His adjusted ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark) has been in the top five in the AL for each of the past three seasons. He keeps the ball in the park, fourth in the league in fewest homers allowed. He has the stuff of...

  Plenty surrounding baseball makes no sense. When hitters batter a pitcher, it is 'expected' that the pitcher can 'retaliate' by brushing them back. At times, the "purpose pitch" causes life-threatening injury, as in Jack Hamilton's beaning of Tony Conigliaro. Batters don't charge the mound when the pitcher dominates... Baseball managers wear uniforms. We don't see Doc Rivers, Bill Belichick, or gawd fawbid Bill Parcells suiting up in their team unis. Pitchers aren't supposed to show up hitters with the fist pump, but the 'home run trot' has become a home run walk for some. Jacoby Ellsbury gets a petulant 'walk off' in Arizona because of injury. If Ellsbury can't play, the fans understand. You can't swing the lumber with high torque, or dive after flyballs, crash into walls, or break up the double play when you're INJURED. Nobody disputes that Ellsbury has injuries, well documented rib fractures. I remember ...

Baseball has the only All-Star game that really matters. Why? The Pro Bowl is anticlimactic, the NBA All-Star game is played sans defense, and hockey...well... So if the All-Star game counts, then why aren't all the best players going? Kevin Youkilis is one of the top five offensive players in the AL, and he has to bite his nails wondering whether the fan-geeks will vote him on (yeah, I did my part over twenty times). A-Rod gets named as an extra. Does he get a bonus to go? He should be an All-Star every year at his contract rate. If he didn't get named, would he care (if there's no money involved). Clay Buchholz had a WAG (wives and girlfriends) top twenty nomination, so maybe he doesn't care if he can't play... What's your favorite All-Star memory? I've got a bunch, Yaz making a miraculous catch to rob a homer, Bo Jackson homering and stealing a base, and the worst was Johnny Callison taking the Monster deep in 1964, which I think was a 'walkof...

Several years ago the Red Sox leapt into the Johan Santana sweepstakes, with Santana ultimately ending up on the New York Mets. If Santana had wound up on the Sox, the Twins would have received Jon Lester and others. What's been the track record in the interim? First, I wrote that among the great pitchers in contemporary baseball history, few have averaged more than 16 wins during the six year career span contemplated...and second, Santana wound up making a king's ransom, which also decreases your ability to pay other players. Of course, Lester also pitches in the pitcher-unfriendly AL and the especially unfriendly AL East. During the past three years, the cancer survivor Lester has earned about 5.17 million dollars, and the Mets ace Santana has earned over ten times as much, nearly 56 million. Sometimes the deals you don't make turn out the best. And the pitcher most similar (similarity scores) to Johan Santana through age 25? Jon Lester.

The band of misfits currently wearing Red Sox uniforms continue to play good baseball, particularly with the assistance of some not-so-inspired play from the Orioles.  Still, within the game in a game, I have a few observations. In the first inning, Daniel Nava almost created an Oriole rally with a poor jump on a single, forcing Jon Lester to induce a DP grounder (not a thing of beauty with Kevin Youkilis doing a manatee imitation to make the play on his end).  In the bottom of the first, Eric Patterson beat out a DP grounder to key the rally. Ortiz (added to three hits) had a walk, and then Youkilis, Drew, and Nava all proceeded to generate doubles, and four runs. In other words, Patterson's speed and hustle kept the inning alive, and ultimately sank Jeremy Guthrie.  Lester continued his roll, picking up a win to move into double figures, and his K/BB ratio and WHIP ratio establish him as the Sox ace and most-deserving All-Star pitcher. At this point, Lester has achie...

Like Bon Jovi's "Living on a Prayer", the Red Sox approach the halfway point, battered and the wild card position bolstered by overachievers and a plethora of unheralded reserves. In some ways, this club deserves both more admiration and respect than some others with more talent. 1. The Manager. Terry Francona has prospered without one of his top pitchers (Josh Beckett), without a semblance of a regular outfield, and despite a deplorable start. Francona's ability to keep turmoil 'in house' gets him high marks and the respect of a veteran ballclub. 2. Catcher in the Wry. Who would have thought the Red Sox to have an incredibly productive catching duo with  Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek combining for 16 homers and 54 RBI? Of course, having both on the DL simultaneously is a more surprising development. Strength up the middle rules in all major sports, chess, and checkers. Will the combination of Molina and Cash do the job? 3. Fracture. In the movie ...

Beat LA! The Dodgers checked into Ye Olde Ballpark to face the tail end of the rotation in newcomer Felix (the Cat) Doubron and Tim Wakefield and the Sox have closed to within one game of a tie for the top of the AL East. 1. Revenge of the Turds. Not really, but his Manholiness delivered a Wakefield butterfly into the departed left field nets. Fortunately, like Manny it was a Solo Shot. 2. Did You Know? Tim McCarver played MLB for about a thousand seasons, but in one unglorious ended one for the Sox (1967), McCarver finished second in the NL MVP race, socking 14 homers and 69 RBI for the Cards. 3. Slugging fools. The American League OPS leaders. The "run prevention" crew from Beantown has four members, including a trio in the top 12. Yankee third sacker A-Rod, sans steroids checks in at number thirty. The Yankees and the Royals both have a pair in the top seventeen. 4. All-Stars? Distribution requirements aside (at least one from every team, and the mandatory Yankee ...

How negative can one be when the Red Sox have the third highest winning percentage in baseball and have moved within a pair of games of the leading Rays and Yankees? 1. Rohring Start. Slim lefty Felix Doubront started out strong, but a series of Dodger hits and Sox misses led to three tying runs. Doubront didn't make anyone forget Jim Kaat covering first base, and Mike Cameron did a Lonnie Smith imitation to make matters worse. Okay, so it wasn't a no-hitter into the ninth, but how much of a career did Billy Rohr have? Doubront has shown a live fastball, a willingness to pitch to contact, and an intention to try to control both sides of the plate with the fastball. Curveball? Not so much, so far. He has a rep of holding runners on, but looks to have a slow delivery to the plate. 2. Nava Ho! Daniel Nava came in hitting .444 in a small sample size. He may be getting even more PT, with J.D. Drew limping off after catching a sinking liner. Drew's Naehringesque health status...

Sometimes as a fan you have a player in your midst who you simply don't appreciate. Ergo, I ask the question "how good is Kevin Youkilis?" Despite the Greek god of walks moniker, Youkilis isn't primarily a 'bases on balls' machine, although he does lead the AL in walks. Here are some statistics that might give you pause and some general comments: I'll argue that Youkilis is the Sox best player and one of the top five in the AL. Why? Youkilis has won a Gold Glove, although his fielding isn't his best attribute. He has finished in the top 6 in AL MVP BOTH of the past two seasons. He has been in the top 8 in the AL in "Wins Above Replacement" each of the past three years. Among active players he is eleventh in on base percentage. He has been in the top five in SLUGGING percentage in the AL each of the past three years. He has been in the top four in On Base Slugging percentage (OPS) in each of the past three years. He currently is th...

The Red Sox have more or less passed the first two-fifths of the annual regular season curriculum, trailing both the Yankees and the Rays by four games (five in the loss column).  Realistically, perhaps they deserve an "incomplete" more than a grade, because they've labored for most of the season without two starting outfielders and their erstwhile ace, Josh Beckett. Writing about the Sox creates special problems today, as attending my daughters' college graduation this weekend kept me away from the action. Suffice it to say, it was another 'Meatloaf" weekend, as in 'Two Out of Three Ain't Bad." The Sox have moved the "plus-minus" rating in the right direction, and the "Run Prevention" strategy seems to be working out better lately as well. They have lowered their team ERA to 4.36 (ninth in the AL) and despite early defensive woes on the left side of the infield, they are now fourth in the AL in both fielding percentage an...

Here's the extremely passionate response from MLB to an email I sent them concerning the Galarraga perfect game. First paragraph, the commissioners statement (already read). Second paragraph, "We will not issue further comments as of this moment." It's a business, a multi-billion dollar business, and I am just one 'customer' with pretty much no impact on the business. If I had some wonderfully scandalous and ethically defective information about a player or a team, I wouldn't release it...naturally, "in the best interests of the game." Heck, baseball looked the other way about its problems virtually until Congressional inquiry (and concern over loss of exemption of anti-trust status?) supervened. Just ignore the problem and it will go away...until it comes up in the final inning of the World Series?

Pitcher A: Pitcher B: Probably the two most important categories are K/BB and WHIP ratio. Looks like Pitcher A has been more effective than Pitcher B. Just sayin'. Pitcher A: Daisuke Matsuzaka (now with 5 wins) Pitcher B: John Lackey

The question of the use of replay won't seem to go away. The first question that has to be asked is "do you care about getting it right?" If you don't care, and you're a human error is an important, essential part of the game, then the discussion could end. Don and Jerry have had a logically inconsistent discussion about how you can't change, how it's difficult to call sometimes, and then talk about adding a fifth umpire (they could use a central location to reduce costs) and agree that college football seems to make the decisions quickly. It's the 'one-handed economist' argument, that there is no 'on the other hand'. Meanwhile, back in Cleveland, the Sox have created some opportunities, big Papi beats out a double play grounder (no replay needed), and Josh Reddick seems to have come alive. Reddick has athleticism and a live bat, but will he hit enough? Didn't J.D. Drew have his ALCS slam against Fausto Carmona? I think so. Da...

It's a new week, and the world hasn't come apart because baseball commissioner* "He Who Must Never Be Named" refuses to acknowledge what the whole world knows, that Armando Galarraga pitched the 21st perfect game in Major League Baseball history. Or should we call it Major Denial League Baseball. The commissioner's stubbornness casts a blight upon the game, in the same manner that performance-enhancing drugs (wink wink, nod nod) did. Failure to act can be a sign of strength, of commitment, or of principle. But equally, indifference to a wrong has the appearance of weakness and cowardice. Adherence to tradition isn't anything new, and it took years for replay to penetrate other major sports. But technological advances, and widespread gambling on sports, forced recalcitrant ownership to reevaluate. And don't expect any to retreat from their adoption of 'getting it right'. Hardcore baseball fans can simply recognize Galarraga's perfect game,...

Not many Sox fans would argue that the season so far has been anything approaching success. Yet throw away the angst and include the 6-9 mediocrity against the Yankees and the Rays and the Sox remain in striking distance. Here's the AL team versus team grid. The good has come from the outstanding (overall) pitching of Lester and Buchholz at the top of the rotation and the setup-closer combination of Bard and Papelbon. Adrian Beltre has overachieved, David Ortiz has outperformed expectations, and Kevin Youkilis remains one of the top players in the league. Jason Varitek has performed a backup role very effectively. Of the newcomers, Bill Hall has shown versatility and some pop. Mediocrity has come from the entirety of the outfield, and Victor Martinez has turned his season around recently. John Lackey hasn't found a groove as his command hasn't been there, although most Sox fans probably expect him to rebound. Dustin Pedroia had a tremendous April and has struggled at ...

Paul Simon had a classic hit 50 ways to leave your lover. The Red Sox have sought to establish 50 ways to lose a ballgame. I won't try to name fifty...this time. Fear Factor. The Bogar man. "Send him in Tim" Bogar might be the greatest guy in the world, but he's cost the Sox a couple of games already.  Collateral Damage. The collision between Adrian Beltre and Jacoby Ellsbury cost the Sox their leadoff hitter for the first half of the season. It happens. Year of Living Dangerously. Will Victor Martinez overcome a slow start? Pap-per Chase. A pair of Yankee homers in the ninth did Papelbon dirty. Wild thing. Daisuke Matsuzaka, a.k.a. 'The Nibbler' drives fans to drink.  "Jeremy." Like Michael Jackson, one wonders what the glove is for.  "Speed." The Sox mostly don't have it, with Ellsbury sidelined, with good baserunners including Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, and Beltre.  The Running Man. Although it's gone better lately, oppos...