Red Sox Reality Check

I haven't written much about the Red Sox lately, because frankly I haven't got time for the pain. A lot of factors go into the success or failure of a baseball season, including "relative" performance to statistical norms, managing, luck, consistency, injuries, and even 'acts of God'. I saw a highlight clip of a ball hitting a bird and deflecting past an outfielder for a walkoff hit.  But after yesterday's embarrassing loss to the White Sox, I needed some catharsis. Perhaps the Red Sox can't change anything about this season, but as for next season, some changes are in order. In no particular ranking: 1) Third base coaching. The best third base coaching occurs when nobody knows the coach's name. We've have Dale "Sveum it ain't so", Wendell "Send 'em in Kim", and Tim "Boo-boo" Bogar. DeMarlo Hale was fantastic but Bogar didn't really cut the mustard. I'm being kind. 2) Bullpen restructuring....

Johnny Damon turned down the Hub for the Motor City. Can't you see it now? The Dan Shaughnessy column comparing Boston and Detroit, yada, yada, yada. Player A has over 400 at bats this season. Player B has 255 at bats. Player A can't throw the ball better than my 22 year old daughter. Player B is a competent outfielder defensively. Player A has simply moved on from the Red Sox and Player B is trying to establish himself as a permanent professional ballplayer. Player A doesn't want to be in Boston and Player B appreciates the opportunity. Player A is Johnny Damon and Player B is Darnell McDonald.

Have you been paying attention? Tonight Ryan Kalish played center field for the Sox. His box score (3 0 0 0) does show much of an impact, does it? Early in the game, Kalish fielded a base hit into the gap and gunned the runner out at second, possibly saving a run. Historically, we've had some weak arms in center (Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury), so this is at least a temporary upgrade. Later, with runners on first and second and no out, he executed a sacrifice bunt perfectly, advancing the runners, who then scored on a Scutaro single. So, with "nothing" in the box score, Kalish made a significant contribution both offensively and defensively. Seeing is believing.

I'm not on the bandwagon, analytically anyway. But the 2010 season hasn't been all negative. If the season is a marathon not a sprint, then so we ask whether younger blood might help carry the team forward. Assessing the "youth" by position (ignoring the established 'younger' veterans in Youkilis (1B-3B) and Pedroia (2B), the Sox have (through the system) established more prospects. C - Saltalamacchia, Exposito, Lavarnaway, Ibarra (Wagner, Brown blocked?) 1B - Rizzo (young power hitter), Anderson (hitting better lately) Middle infield- Lowrie, Y. Navarro, Iglesias 3B- Middlebrooks OF- Kalish, Reddick, Lin (defensively) SP- established 5 starters, 2 very young (Lester, Buchholz), Doubront RP - Bard, Bowden (what will they do with Papelbon?) Top prospects- Kelly, Weiland, Fife, Ranaudo Power-hitting outfielders, especially right-handed, look to be the system 'deficiency'.

Dear Theo Epstein: Realistically, the Red Sox aren't buried, but are they dead? Tampa has 40 games to go, playing over .600 ball. If they continue to 'struggle' and win 20, they finish 94-48. To tie them, the Sox must win 25 of their final 39 to tie.  If Tampa even goes 22-18 (96 wins), then the Sox must go 27-12, in other words, play almost .700 ball down the stretch. Even if the Sox had their full roster, that's not happening. If the Sox don't beat Toronto the next two games, then Theo Epstein should think the unthinkable, sell 'em off. If you're not going to make a max effort to re-up Beltre (likely 4 by 60) and Martinez (maybe 4 by 10) and pay Papelbon 10 million (a total of 110 million), then maybe the Sox go into selling mode, in order to retool for 2011. Among Beltre, Martinez, and Papelbon, you should be able to get useful if not premium pieces, as you're not selling off junk, realizing that what you're not trading is quality but not...

How do you classify the 2010 Boston Red Sox campaign to date? Any answer has to be qualified, but how does this differ from any baseball season? Success and failure in baseball depends on many factors, including the proverbial 'bad bounces', health and injury, as well as over/underproduction by players, coaches, and management. Management : Although the franchise has a fiduciary and 'moral' duty to win every year, even Theo Epstein acknowledged 2010 to be a 'bridge' year. Transactions have to be judged over the long haul. So far, the insertion of numerous fill-ins, ranging from Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Eric Patterson, and most recently Ryan Kalish has overall exceeded expectations. Adrian Beltre has simply been a revelation. Few Red Sox in their wildest dreams could have anticipated the contribution of Bill Hall, and Marco Scutaro has for the most part stabilized the shortstop position. Acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia at lottery ticket prices gives...

"You're never as good as you look when you win...or as bad as you look when you lose." - Earl Weaver The Red Sox continue to confound and confuse. To their credit, they haven't gone into the tank when they could with major injuries at C (2), 1B, 2B, LF (2), CF, and P(Beckett, Matsuzaka). Conversely, the 'run prevention' strategy hasn't materialized, with continual bad fielding, bad judgement, and inconsistent relief pitching. Dan Le Batard makes it clear today in the Miami Herald that most journalists simply haven't adequately prepared, and become critical, simply because that's the easy way.  Now for the gratuitous comments: Sox fans bemoaned the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury. Who's crying now? Getting your timing back mid-season isn't so easy. Josh Beckett hasn't had the greatest command today...but throwing some more off-speed pitches could help...although maybe he's concerned about the running game. Fuggedaboutit. Not happe...

Lots of factors go into business decisions, ranging from performance to potential to dollars. 1. Kalish and Hermida. Jeremy Hermida gets DFA'd, hardly surprising when the former first round draft choice did nothing to dispel the "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" rap. After a torrid start, Hermida didn't hit and looked worse than that afield. Kalish can run and play defense, and it wouldn't take a lot of production to surpass the former Marlin. Kalish had two hits, a run scored and an RBI in his debut...pretty good story to tell his grandchildren someday. 2. How do you spell relief? The Sox will try to cobble together middle relief with Scott Atchison and some combination of Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront down the stretch. The low budget but low sacrifice approach as they don't mortgage the farm with prospects for suspects. 3. Catch as catch can. Jarrod Saltamacchia developed Steve Blass Disease (a.k.a. the yips) and has been working t...

No, I'm not talking about Jim Bouton's sequel to the irreverent Ball Four . And I'm not disparaging the job Terry Francona has done with an injured lineup, a starting rotation only now coming together, and a bullpen solid at the back end and largely sordid at the front end. The Boston Red Sox 2010, intriguing, playing hard, but crippled by injuries and an untimely West Coast trip that made fans (the ones not on vacation) tune in to bedtime not baseball. This might be the best starting rotation the Sox have had in my lifetime, with a potential someday Hall of Famer in progress (Jon Lester), two very high end starters (Beckett and Lackey), a guy with absolutely filthy stuff (Buchholz), and the enigmatic but talented foreign important, Matsuzaka. The excitement on the bases has been a no-show from injury and half the 'soul' of the team (Dustin Pedroia) kills himself to get back on the field, but can't hurry the process. It's a season where the fans have d...

Sigh.

The unofficial arm of the Boston Red Sox, a.k.a. The American College of Radiology has scientific guidelines on the use of imaging in the diagnosis of rib fractures. Really. CT scans are remarkably effective in detecting chest trauma. (Click the scan to enlarge and see the rib fractures) But imaging studies won't necessarily tell us when a 'worker' can return to his 'usual duties'. A construction worker, laborer (doing heavy lifting), or professional athlete subjected to repeated trauma isn't going to respond the same way as a journalist or a doctor. So what we don't know are 1) the facts (how completely Jacoby Ellsbury has recovered) or 2) the context, as in are there other factors souring the relationship between Ellsbury and management. Throw Scott Boras into the mix, and we get more heat and no light. So we lack the facts and have too many 'beliefs' based on just about nothing.  So what else is new?

The Red Sox brass had to celebrate what they'd built, resigning Josh Beckett, acquiring John Lackey, and developing Clay Buchholz, with four out pitches (95 mph heat, 12-6 curve, devastating change, and recently branded cutter). But the gem of the staff is the 26 year-old lefter from Tacoma. Battling professional hitters must seem easy after enduring cancer chemotherapy. This season Lester leads Sox hurlers with eleven wins, and leads the AL in starts, wins above replacement, and hits allowed per nine innings. Over the past two and a half seasons, he is 42-17, with 501 strikeouts in 513.2 innings. And he's getting better before our eyes, controlling both sides of the plate, using the cutter against right-handers, and developing another out pitch with his change-up. His adjusted ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark) has been in the top five in the AL for each of the past three seasons. He keeps the ball in the park, fourth in the league in fewest homers allowed. He has the stuff of...

  Plenty surrounding baseball makes no sense. When hitters batter a pitcher, it is 'expected' that the pitcher can 'retaliate' by brushing them back. At times, the "purpose pitch" causes life-threatening injury, as in Jack Hamilton's beaning of Tony Conigliaro. Batters don't charge the mound when the pitcher dominates... Baseball managers wear uniforms. We don't see Doc Rivers, Bill Belichick, or gawd fawbid Bill Parcells suiting up in their team unis. Pitchers aren't supposed to show up hitters with the fist pump, but the 'home run trot' has become a home run walk for some. Jacoby Ellsbury gets a petulant 'walk off' in Arizona because of injury. If Ellsbury can't play, the fans understand. You can't swing the lumber with high torque, or dive after flyballs, crash into walls, or break up the double play when you're INJURED. Nobody disputes that Ellsbury has injuries, well documented rib fractures. I remember ...

Baseball has the only All-Star game that really matters. Why? The Pro Bowl is anticlimactic, the NBA All-Star game is played sans defense, and hockey...well... So if the All-Star game counts, then why aren't all the best players going? Kevin Youkilis is one of the top five offensive players in the AL, and he has to bite his nails wondering whether the fan-geeks will vote him on (yeah, I did my part over twenty times). A-Rod gets named as an extra. Does he get a bonus to go? He should be an All-Star every year at his contract rate. If he didn't get named, would he care (if there's no money involved). Clay Buchholz had a WAG (wives and girlfriends) top twenty nomination, so maybe he doesn't care if he can't play... What's your favorite All-Star memory? I've got a bunch, Yaz making a miraculous catch to rob a homer, Bo Jackson homering and stealing a base, and the worst was Johnny Callison taking the Monster deep in 1964, which I think was a 'walkof...

Several years ago the Red Sox leapt into the Johan Santana sweepstakes, with Santana ultimately ending up on the New York Mets. If Santana had wound up on the Sox, the Twins would have received Jon Lester and others. What's been the track record in the interim? First, I wrote that among the great pitchers in contemporary baseball history, few have averaged more than 16 wins during the six year career span contemplated...and second, Santana wound up making a king's ransom, which also decreases your ability to pay other players. Of course, Lester also pitches in the pitcher-unfriendly AL and the especially unfriendly AL East. During the past three years, the cancer survivor Lester has earned about 5.17 million dollars, and the Mets ace Santana has earned over ten times as much, nearly 56 million. Sometimes the deals you don't make turn out the best. And the pitcher most similar (similarity scores) to Johan Santana through age 25? Jon Lester.

The band of misfits currently wearing Red Sox uniforms continue to play good baseball, particularly with the assistance of some not-so-inspired play from the Orioles.  Still, within the game in a game, I have a few observations. In the first inning, Daniel Nava almost created an Oriole rally with a poor jump on a single, forcing Jon Lester to induce a DP grounder (not a thing of beauty with Kevin Youkilis doing a manatee imitation to make the play on his end).  In the bottom of the first, Eric Patterson beat out a DP grounder to key the rally. Ortiz (added to three hits) had a walk, and then Youkilis, Drew, and Nava all proceeded to generate doubles, and four runs. In other words, Patterson's speed and hustle kept the inning alive, and ultimately sank Jeremy Guthrie.  Lester continued his roll, picking up a win to move into double figures, and his K/BB ratio and WHIP ratio establish him as the Sox ace and most-deserving All-Star pitcher. At this point, Lester has achie...

Like Bon Jovi's "Living on a Prayer", the Red Sox approach the halfway point, battered and the wild card position bolstered by overachievers and a plethora of unheralded reserves. In some ways, this club deserves both more admiration and respect than some others with more talent. 1. The Manager. Terry Francona has prospered without one of his top pitchers (Josh Beckett), without a semblance of a regular outfield, and despite a deplorable start. Francona's ability to keep turmoil 'in house' gets him high marks and the respect of a veteran ballclub. 2. Catcher in the Wry. Who would have thought the Red Sox to have an incredibly productive catching duo with  Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek combining for 16 homers and 54 RBI? Of course, having both on the DL simultaneously is a more surprising development. Strength up the middle rules in all major sports, chess, and checkers. Will the combination of Molina and Cash do the job? 3. Fracture. In the movie ...

Beat LA! The Dodgers checked into Ye Olde Ballpark to face the tail end of the rotation in newcomer Felix (the Cat) Doubron and Tim Wakefield and the Sox have closed to within one game of a tie for the top of the AL East. 1. Revenge of the Turds. Not really, but his Manholiness delivered a Wakefield butterfly into the departed left field nets. Fortunately, like Manny it was a Solo Shot. 2. Did You Know? Tim McCarver played MLB for about a thousand seasons, but in one unglorious ended one for the Sox (1967), McCarver finished second in the NL MVP race, socking 14 homers and 69 RBI for the Cards. 3. Slugging fools. The American League OPS leaders. The "run prevention" crew from Beantown has four members, including a trio in the top 12. Yankee third sacker A-Rod, sans steroids checks in at number thirty. The Yankees and the Royals both have a pair in the top seventeen. 4. All-Stars? Distribution requirements aside (at least one from every team, and the mandatory Yankee ...

How negative can one be when the Red Sox have the third highest winning percentage in baseball and have moved within a pair of games of the leading Rays and Yankees? 1. Rohring Start. Slim lefty Felix Doubront started out strong, but a series of Dodger hits and Sox misses led to three tying runs. Doubront didn't make anyone forget Jim Kaat covering first base, and Mike Cameron did a Lonnie Smith imitation to make matters worse. Okay, so it wasn't a no-hitter into the ninth, but how much of a career did Billy Rohr have? Doubront has shown a live fastball, a willingness to pitch to contact, and an intention to try to control both sides of the plate with the fastball. Curveball? Not so much, so far. He has a rep of holding runners on, but looks to have a slow delivery to the plate. 2. Nava Ho! Daniel Nava came in hitting .444 in a small sample size. He may be getting even more PT, with J.D. Drew limping off after catching a sinking liner. Drew's Naehringesque health status...

Sometimes as a fan you have a player in your midst who you simply don't appreciate. Ergo, I ask the question "how good is Kevin Youkilis?" Despite the Greek god of walks moniker, Youkilis isn't primarily a 'bases on balls' machine, although he does lead the AL in walks. Here are some statistics that might give you pause and some general comments: I'll argue that Youkilis is the Sox best player and one of the top five in the AL. Why? Youkilis has won a Gold Glove, although his fielding isn't his best attribute. He has finished in the top 6 in AL MVP BOTH of the past two seasons. He has been in the top 8 in the AL in "Wins Above Replacement" each of the past three years. Among active players he is eleventh in on base percentage. He has been in the top five in SLUGGING percentage in the AL each of the past three years. He has been in the top four in On Base Slugging percentage (OPS) in each of the past three years. He currently is th...