Red Sox Reality Check

Does the Law of Averages mean anything after the Sox scored in double digits four consecutive games and the Bombers got whitewashed 16-0 by the Tigers last night? Let's hope not. Daisuke Matsuzaka, victim of lack of run support recently, faces Red Sox nemesis Andy Pettitte. Among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched, Matsuzaka (13-10) is 22nd in run support at 5.19 runs/game. The leaders are Verlander, Wang, Beckett, and Pettitte, all with at least 6 3/4 runs per game, with Verlander at a whopping 7.6. On-base slugging percentage .831 Dustin Pedroia. At .821, Derek Jeter. Three year splits for Jorge Posada against the Red Sox? .303/.410/.576/.986. That would qualify him as a Sox killer in my book. Jon Lester pitched well for the Sea Dogs, allowing one run in six innings. If only he could cut down on the bases on balls. With the off-season acquisition of Julio Lugo, everyone worried about the Red Sox defense. The Sox check in at third in fielding percentage in the AL, with qua...

The old saying, "you're never as good as you look when you win, and never as bad when you lose," comes to mind after the first three games of the White Sox series have gone 35-6, Boston. The inconsistent Sox offense pounds out double digit runs three games running, and shows a very good argument why Mark Buehrle didn't belong on their radar screen. The White Sox have injuries and their pitching hasn't performed up to expectations, which is why they are a last place team. As for the Sox, what are they, a World Series favorite, a top five team, or an enigma unfolding before us? First, despite the sense concerning offensive vulnerability, they have three guys in the top 10 hitting (Pedroia, Lowell, and Ortiz), three guys with 85 or more RBI (Lowell, Manny, Ortiz), two of the top ten in OPS (Ortiz, Lowell), three of the top 20 and five of the top twenty-seven in Runs Created (Pedroia, the revelation at 27). As of the 23rd, the Sox have eight players with at least thir...

Maybe the time has arrived to start contemplating the Tenth Player Award. I'd call it the 'Outperformed Expectations' award. You could probably divided the team into exceeded, met, and underperformed expectations. That doesn't mean that a player in a 'lower' category didn't produce more than one in a higher category. It's the expectations game. EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS Hideki Okajima Dustin Pedroia Tim Wakefield Mike Lowell Manny Delcarmen MET EXPECTATIONS Jason Varitek Doug Mirabelli Josh Beckett Jonathan Papelbon Jon Lester Daisuke Matsuzaka Kyle Snyder Mike Timlin Julian Tavarez Eric Hinske Alex Cora Kevin Youkilis (first half exceeded, second half underperformed) Coco Crisp UNDERACHIEVED EXPECTATIONS Brendan Donnelly Curt Schilling Eric Gagne Julio Lugo (has met expectations recently) J.D. Drew Manny Ramirez (held to a high standard) David Ortiz (held to a high standard) If you project Win Shares of 30 as MVP type seasons and 20 as All-Star seasons, wh...

So many times through Red Sox history, critical points went against the locals. HBO is playing 'Reversing the Curse' with the highlights and the lowlights of the Red Sox experience. 1967 and 1975, the Red Sox were heavy underdogs and lost to the better team. 1978 and the monumental collapse (but incredible rally to get to the playoff), and 1986...what were you doing during Game 6 of 1986? I was in the Intensive Care Unit of Bethesda Naval Hospital, outside of ICU Bay 3, watching it go down. "The most stunning comeback in baseball history..." how we remember those words from 2004. Eighty-six years of unrequited love and cataclysmic frustration, evaporated in eight games of magic. "It was Edgar Renteria who made the last out of the World Series. He was wearing number 3, the same number as the Babe." How do the Red Sox affect your life? What are you wearing right now? I've got my Boston Dirt Dogs t-shirt on. On any given practice for the young Melrose girls...

2004 changed everything, taking away the edge, the aura of inevitability. Is it lack of concern about being overtaken by the New Yorkers, confidence in the Red Sox pitching staff, or just fatigue induced by contemporary sports scandals? I am sorry to see Wily Mo Pena go, as somehow, I view him to be a future productive player. Who knows, maybe he'll come this way again. After the break, his OPS is .749, not very good . My pitching obituary for Mike Timlin obviously came prematurely. Clay Buchholz reminds me of another tall, right-handed pitcher who threw over the top. Of course, this boyhood idol has just a little bit longer track record . Last year Kevin Youkilis seemed to wear down from the long season and a lot of hit by pitches. This season, Youk has just tailed off after the All-Star break . The bad news is that Wily Mo had an OPS 61 points higher than the Sox first baseman since the break. OPS after the break: Crisp 0.778 Pedroia 0.831 Ortiz 0.936 Ramirez 0.956 Lowell 0....

August has left the Sox lead dwindling, an unpleasant melange of New York competence and Red Sox giveaway sales, led by the chief bullpen artists, the formerly stout bullpen. Let's start with the bright side, the Sox do have some potential longer-term players in Pawtucket, with Buchholz winning tonight with another nine strikeouts, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie both looking productive offensively...you can't tell from box scores how hard they are hitting the ball, only that they are finding some holes. Curt Schilling pitched well enough today...and Beckett and Matsuzaka have remained formidable throughout this summer siesta. 'Theo's Folly', the acquisitions of Lugo and Drew haven't looked so bad lately, and I wonder how many outfields had all starters recently with four-letter names (Pena, Drew, Moss). Dustin Pedroia remains a revelation, both offensively and defensively (an error today), and I owe a thousand 'my bads' to a player who could be a sub...

As the Red Sox move into the final fifty games or so of the regular season, Sox fans have questions, not only about this year, but the future. Theo Epstein has locked in some tough contracts (Drew, Lugo), has some veterans on the free agent train ( Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell ), and some minor league pieces to rearrange. Epstein and company have to decide (eventually) what direction to take. The two hottest minor league pitchers are Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson . Masterson fanned another ten in six innings today, and with an E.R.A. under 1.50 in six starts, and total domination, he's due for Pawtucket...soon. North Carolina product Andrew Miller is already in the Tigers' rotation. I'm not arguing for promotion of any of the Sox minor leaguers, but historically the Sox have been very conservative with young talent. What role do Buchholz and Masterson get this fall, if any? Kevin Youkilis is the 'wild card' positionally, as he could go back to third base, if ...

Eric Gagne checked into the Red Sox bullpen last night, but got time to adjust to his new circumstances. Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon looked the best he's looked in some time, hitting his spots on the 'natural corner' and touching 97 on the gun. Pap smeared the O's controlling both corners and got away with a splitter up on the leadoff hitter, and finished off the uber-talent Brian Roberts with splitters down. For those who say that Papelbon should be a starter, he'd really benefit from a third pitch if that were the case, and I doubt that he trusts his slider enough to use it regularly. Developing a cutter to righthanders or another offspeed pitch to lefthanders (e.g. Circle change) would be a must. Maybe having Gagne around will help in that regard. Meanwhile, for AAA Pawtucket, Clay Buchholz pitched over six innings of two run ball, fanning nine and walking none. Buchholz, in three AAA starts has an E.R.A. of 3.93, with 30 strikeouts and 6 walks. When you conside...