Red Sox Reality Check

Michael Bowden made his MLB debut tonight and didn't disappoint. He walked the leadoff hitter, but no more, and held the potent White Sox to two runs in five innings. Yes, he got away with some pitches, but he showed a willingness to pitch the right-handed hitters inside and had a nice change with some good movement down-and-in to the right hander. Obviously he still needs work on the breaking stuff but he had good poise and a live fastball. Dustin Pedroia continues to drive the Pale Hose batty with his hitting, defense, and baserunning, with a brilliant slide to 'steal' a double. Oh yeah, and Dustin hit cleanup. You ask why Mark Kotsay is hitting fifth against Buehrle, and Kotsay promptly delivers a pair of doubles. There's that stat prep thingy... Stuff you never see: Terry Francona came out to argue a safe call (to the Sox benefit). Oh, yeah! Lou Merloni correctly points out on the pre-game show that replay will become more controversial when its absence blows a crit...

Dustin Pedroia has had a phenomenal season for the Red Sox. As terrific as he has been this season, far exceeding many observers expectations, how does his season rank within the best players in the American League? Win Shares model overall contribution to a team's winning, and serve as excellent comparisons between players and also allow for trending. Bill James created the multifactorial model, and the data is regularly updated on The Hardball Times . As a reference, a season total of 20 equates to "All-Star" performance and 30 or more represents MVP type seasons. The Rangers slugging second baseman Ian Kinsler leads the AL with 28, followed closely by Justin Morneau of Minnesota and Grady Sizemore of Cleveland. Kevin Youkilis leads the Red Sox with 24, tied for fifth in the AL, and Pedroia is tied for 18th, heady stuff for a guy who really struggled early as a rookie. Pedroia also leads AL second basemen in fielding Win Shares. Not too shabby.

As the Red Sox turn into the home stretch of their playoff run, what do we see? In head-to-head matches in the division, where would you rank the Sox? This is not ranking the Sox versus the rest of the league, just in divisional play. Off the top it feels like: Tampa Toronto New York Boston Baltimore The reality of intra-divisional play? Tampa 28-19 Toronto 24-22 New York 26-24 Boston 24-25 Baltimore 20-32 So, mirabile dictu , the 'feel' matches the fit. Unfortunately. A theme for the season has been "play better". And so it is. The Sox have overachieved at several positions, particularly Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. Since the All-Star break the Red Sox are seven in OPS and ninth in runs/game in the AL. Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp together in the outfield haven't produced a lot of pop, which means Coco now delivers a home run. Yes, injuries do matter (Lowell, Drew) but other teams have injuries as well, most notably the Rays without Crawford and ...

Few professions expect the youngest members to be at the peak of their craft. Is baseball so different? Clay Buchholz achieved baseball immortality with a no-hitter in his second start, but Great Expectations haven't achieved fulfillment in year two. Yet the day after Clay gets relocated for more seasoning at Portland, the United States mens' and womens' 400 meter sprint relay teams BOTH drop the baton in the semifinal heats. Move over, Clay. Roger Kahn's "The Head Game" reviews some of the great pitchers through time, and the title is no accident. A great career requires unusual health, superior ability (the stuff the make people miss), and consistent attack of not only the strike zone but hitters' weaknesses. Left-handed hitters often have a 'blind spot' down and in (note Jacoby Ellsbury), as they become accustomed to seeing right-handed pitchers whose 'natural corner' is down and AWAY. Right handed hitters often struggle with hard stuff ...

The current version of the Red Sox reminds me of the movie 'Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid'. Unfortunately, the Sox aren't Butch or Sundance, but the relentless posse chasing them. "Who are those guys?" Three quarters of the way through the season, we're trying to figure out who this team really is. The heart of the team (David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek) has struggled with injury and offensive inconsistency. A pair of younger players (Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia) have become the soul of the team, with a dogged determination that makes every at-bat Armageddon. The corner outfielders are solid and at times have been spectacular. The other two kids, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie have been polar opposites. Ellsbury, cursed by unlimited potential, has not met the fans' expectations while Lowrie has overachieved from day one, supplanting the high-priced shortstop du jour, Julio Lugo. The pitching staff likewise has turned inside out. Cy You...

After a big weekend thrashing at the hands of the Jays, Sox fans enjoyed a plucking of the Orioles, highlighted by a pair of homers by Jason Bay, who had four RBI and a stolen base. Jon Lester raised his record to 12-4 while lowering his eighth place ERA in the AL to 3.18 with seven innings of one-run ball. Manny Delcarmen helped bring the Orioles back with 8th inning inconsistency, with a pair of two out walks leading to an Orioles comeback to 4-3. Sox fans are frustrated by the inconsistency day-to-day, with erratic pitching ranging from the bullpen, and recent struggles from the back end of the starting rotation. The constants have been Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, the latter the Red Sox MVP this season so far, and the former largely a model of consistency for the past few months. David Ortiz seems to be gathering himself down the stretch, with his post-All-Star game splits showing improving OPS. And Jed Lowrie has shown himself to be a worthy replacement both offensively and ...

Where is the soul of Red Sox Nation? Recent events encourage examination and questions about where we stand? Above all, the Red Sox are a business, a very successful business, on the field and at the box office. A pair of championships in four years after a lifetime of almost mythical disappointments testifies to the success of baseball operations. Revenues and 'value' among ticket prices, seating capacity expansion, NESN, and other revenue generating operations (merchandising). MLB generated 6.08 billion dollars of revenue in 2007, with the Red Sox reporting 234 million dollars in gross revenue in 2006. The Red Sox approach an All-Time record for consecutive sellouts, which any economist would tell you means that ticket prices aren't maximizing revenue. The team has increased seating capacity within the tiny footprint at Fenway, and worked to improve the venue as a site for concerts, fund-raising, and private events. Baseball operations has strengthened productivity (work ...

What can you say about last night's game? Ugly? Horrible? Spectacular? The greatest deficit I remember the Sox overcoming was an 8-0 game in 1967, which I believe Jerry Adair capped off with a game winning homer. I definitely could be wrong about that, since it happened over 40 years ago. The Red Sox have found new ways to frustrate us, even in the wake of a pair of World Championships. You can never have too much pitching. But the staff falls apart with season long injuries to Curt Schilling, mostly hurt Bartolo Colon, and what seems like a Clay Buchholz badly in need of a sports psychologist. The Byrd Man of Cleveland can bring even a semblance of sanity to the back end of the rotation (an ERA under 5), that would constitute an improvement. And then there's the bullpen, which like the little girl with the curl, has been very bad when bad. Again, as I've repeated over and over and over, maybe better pitching means more than better players. The centerfield camera (Direct Vi...

Pitching seemed like the Red Sox strong point. And maybe it still is. But with Tim Wakefield headed to the DL and Clay Buchholz in FUBAR mode, the Sox have to retool. What are the options? The top of the rotation with Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Lester isn't the problem. Where they go from there, anybody knows. Bartolo Colon isn't ready, and the best free agent available could be Freddy Garcia, who has a dozen teams looking at him. Pawtucket has David Pauley (pitched Saturday), Devern Hansack (pitched the 7th), Charlie Zink (the knuckleballer, pitched the 8th) and Michael Bowden (last pitched August 5th), who has already thrown 126 innings this year. The question is whether the Sox will reassess the innings count with their prize prospect. Colon pitched three innings today. Justin Masterson would need to be 'stretched out' if he were going back to the rotation, and we've seen how that worked out for Joba (the Hun) Chamberlain. Here's guessing that they turn to Hansa...

"Momentum lasts as long as the next day's starting pitcher." And so it was tonight as Daisuke Matsuzaka stopped the White Sox on one run through eight innings. Of course, it's not only pitching that counts but timely hitting as well. David Ortiz led the fourteen hit parade with three hits and a three run double, and another key element was Jacoby Ellsbury with his seventh homer and three hits. Ellsbury's protracted slump seemed to coincide with what was the illusion of offensive stagnation. But Ellsbury has now raised his average above .270 and has shown more pop with a pair of homers this week. Perhaps he's making adjustments, or pitchers aren't executing against his perceived weakness. After last season's mediocrity, nobody knew what to expect from Matsuzaka, but he leads the team in wins (13-2) and E.R.A. (2.90) and has produced surprising consistency while going deeper in games lately. In his last six starts, he's averaged 6 2/3rd innings. The ...

Tonight's game has filled the inquisitive mind with trivial thoughts and pictures. Jason Bay had a double off the centerfielder's glove that rolled about SIX FEET along the TOP of the KC wall before leftfielder Ross Gload kept it in the park. Jacoby Ellsbury had TWO hits! And two stolen bases. As they say, you can't steal first base. Mike Lowell just pains the consciousness limping around the bases. Last night the Sox just couldn't make anything happen against Gil Meche after the first. Tonight the Sox got into the Royals bullpen and exacted a little payback. Josh Beckett looks a little tired here in the seventh, with his front shoulder flying open, leaving his pitching arm trailing, and causing stuff to go up and away from lefthanders. Voila! Francona sees it, too, and Beckett is gone. Joba Chamberlain has shoulder pain and needs an MRI and a visit to Dr. James Andrews in Alabama. I wrote to Andrews years ago and got a very comprehensive personal letter back. I was imp...

Let's hope so. Coming into tonight, Jon Lester has 48 career starts , with a remarkable 20-5 career record.

"This is your team."

Last night the Red Sox took a step in the right direction, playing good baseball. Pitch the ball, field the ball, hit the ball. Not all of their efforts created runs, but the Sox executed better than they had in awhile. Jed Lowrie had a sacrifice fly and a sacrifice bunt. Jonathan Papelbon stranded a runner in scoring position in a critical situation. The oft-maligned bullpen held the A's down for the most part, including key efforts from Delcarmen in the seventh, Papelbon in the 9th and 10th, and Lopez and Timlin in the final two. We shouldn't rush to declare Jason Bay an All-Star based on one night, but at least everyone had their oars in the water. The Sox have enough good pieces to go deep in the playoffs, although as currently constituted, the Angels have to be the AL favorite. Terry Francona's genius has always been the focus on winning today. Let's hope he can keep everyone left behind on board.

On Wall Street, the saying goes, "never confuse brains with a bull market." Baseball doesn't have an equivalent, although maybe Charles Barkley approximated it, "I am not a role model." Baseball players get paid to perform on the field, not to sign autographs, appease sports writers, or give good interviews. Realistically, "you catch more flies with honey than vinegar", so accommodating the media and fans does provide linkage between pay and performance . But many talented players haven't enjoyed much of a relationship with their environment, from Ty Cobb to Steve Carlton, to Barry Bonds. "Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan." Maybe had the Sox been playing well, the whole tirade could have been dismissed, but the volatile mixture of underachievement and constant complaints produced the expected result, CHANGE. "No progress occurs without change, but not all change is progress." - John Wooden Apply the lesson...

Okay, it's time to release the hounds, a barrage of cliche's worthy of grade B movies. The Bay Watch has begun, with Bay's press conference today. Bay is certain to get the biggest ovation of his career. Terry Francona looked like the weight of the world had come off his shoulders. Francona is rumored to have lost fifteen pounds during the Dead Manny Walking crisis. The Sox finally extricated the sole survivor of the Isle of Manny by doing everything (as Jason Varitek said) "to get him out of town." Nobody should feel that Jason Bay will produce at the level of a Hall of Famer. But the Sox have presumably solved their left field problems through 2009 and done so with an opportunity to put twelve million dollars together to address other weaknesses. Bay will surely misplay some balls off the wall, strikeout in key situations, and leave runners on base. He will fail at times and at others he will succeed spectacularly. That is baseball. How good is Jason Bay? Som...