Red Sox Reality Check

Stripes. A movie, animal skin, or something else? Terry Francona has earned his stripes with a pair of World Series titles in five seasons. His success follows excellent players, supporting his veterans and promoting youth, keeping problems in-house, and maybe a little luck. Nothing wrong with that. Zebras. That is, umpires. I think the calls on the bases are as good as ever, but the strike zone has begun to resume pre-Questek dimensions, with the outside corner not yet of Glavinesque proportions but getting there. Two consecutive replay days for homers for the Sox, but the locals went 0-2, although no way we could bellyache on the former, and we couldn't really tell on the latter. Do you have to change your stripes sometimes? The Sox are facing numerous stripe-rearrangement questions? Do they need another DH bat? Even when healthy, is Mark Kotsay the answer if Big Papi continues to struggle or has an injury? Should Big Papi move down in the lineup? (Absolutely) Do we have a shorts...

I really liked what I saw of Junichi Tazawa in Spring Training (on television). He had an aggressive style, coming after the hitters, with a fastball with good movement and a better breaking ball than Daisuke Matsuzaka. He threw strikes. Tazawa went to AA Portland, and what has he done lately? Let's focus on the appearances in May. First, I like to look at WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and K/BB ratio, that predicts ERA better than previous ERA itself. In five May appearances, Tazawa has pitched 28 innings, yielding 21 hits, with 7 walks and 28 strikeouts. He has allowed five earned runs, with the WHIP ratio of 1.00 and the K/BB ratio of four. No doubt the Sox are working on fastball command and secondary pitches, but it looks like Tazawa has already achieved dominance at AAA. Next stop Pawtucket. Obviously, we don't know Taz' support system (interpreter) et cetera, but the Sox need to assess his abilities against better competition.

Red Sox Nation got a spiritual boost tonight with a two run homer provided by David Ortiz, his first of the season. Speculation raged over steroids, injury, or age discrepancy, but Ortiz, with tremendous support from Red Sox fans, delivered a blast into the centerfield camera. Ortiz has been one of the most popular, if not the most popular Sox player for years, and fans shared Terry Francona's angst over Big Papi's struggles at the bat. He had gone from nightly hero to Mighty Casey almost overnight, with lunging, futile swings. Meanwhile the Sox, who usually struggle against new pitchers teed off for five homers, a pair by Jason Varitek, and one apiece by J. Bay, Mike Lowell, and Papi.

With four starters with ERAs over six (Lester, Beckett, Penny, and Matsuzaka), one has to scratch his head and wonder how the Sox have stayed close in the AL East. The Sox are 21-12 and only a game out. But it's not difficult. Offensively, the Sox are second in the AL in scoring, about 5.7 runs per game, and the pitching is tenth in the AL in ERA. The Sox are sixth, however, in strikeouts to walks, and Red Sox data shows that K/BB ratio predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Still, more telling is the Red Sox bullpen, that is third in ERA at 3.20 and leads the AL in saves with 11. With the AL overall bullpen ERA at 4.54, that's quite a differential. This has translated into a 6-4 win-loss record in one-run games (good, not great) and their overall record exceeds their expected record using baseball's Pythagorean Theorem. Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Jonathan Papelbon have ERAs of 0.52, 0.52, and 1.20 respectively, allowing four earned runs in 49 2/3 innings. The...

Happy Mother's Day! The pink bats, pink wristbands, and breast cancer ribbons are out. The Sox play the Rays in the Game of the Week, and the Sox managed to keep Carl Crawford from stealing...as he scores from first on a two-out single by Pat Burrell. Crawford scored despite not running hard all the way...as I presume he thought Burrell's wall-ball was bound for the Monster Seats. It's a big outing for Josh Beckett and the Sox, as Beckett has struggled and Matt Garza has looked like Bob Gibson circa 1967 for the Rays. Before a national television audience, Terry Francona had the 'sense' to put Julio Lugo on the pine. Lugo's defense has been sorry so far this season...but he didn't pick up an error for his miscue yesterday. Unfortunately, Nick Green's defense hasn't been great either. Hope is a four-letter world.

Tonight Washington congratulates the Press on their stewardship of journalistic integrity in covering the White House. Meanwhile, the Red Sox took the roasting at the hands of the Tampa Bay Death Rays. It was another Kazmir sweater for the Sox as the Rays pounded the locals 14-5. The good news was that a slaughter rule deficit never came into play. A lot of guys had roles in the afternoon no-delight, particularly Julio Lugo, who continues to play Superman at shortstop, handling baseballs like kryptonite. The difference between Jed and Julio? There's no 'D' in Julio. Jeff Bailey misplayed a pickoff into an error as well, although not costing the Sox a run. The sacks were loaded more often than Professor Irwin Corey for the Rays, and the Sox exchanged the Friday Red uniforms for waving white flags. The Rays did show a little mercy, as Carl Crawford (three) had more hits than stolen bases, and didn't add to his stolen base or strawberry totals. Every starter for the Rays h...

Hat tip to son Conor...the numbers guy...a.k.a. "The Big Brain" Number of instances of 30 year olds having 300+ K seasons between 1945-1996: 5 Number of instances of 30 year olds having 300+ K seasons since 1997: 9 Pedro once (the year he was God) Schilling 3 times Johnson 5 times Also note that the 2001 D-Backs, in addition to Schilling and Johnson, had Luis Gonzalez's 57 homer year, Jay Bell (2 years removed from his 38-homer season which came at age 34), Matt Williams... Player (age that year) Strikeouts Year Sandy Koufax+ (30) 317 1966 Mickey Lolich (30) 308 1971 Nolan Ryan+ (30) 341 1977 Mike Scott (31) 306 1986 Nolan Ryan+ (42) 301 1989 Curt Schilling (30) 319 1997 Randy Johnson (34) 329 1998 Curt Schilling (31) 300 1998 Randy Johnson (35) 364 1999 Pedro Martinez (27) 313 1999 Randy Johnson (3...

My opinion on baseball or the Red Sox certainly isn't any better than yours. The only difference is that you may not have a forum to discuss your opinion. As we approach the quarter of a season mark, here are some thoughts and observations. I still have concerns about the Red Sox starting pitching, particularly when Tim Wakefield has been the "ace" of the staff. Yes, Lester is coming around, Beckett hasn't had full command, Daisuke is still on rehab, and Penny hasn't consistently shown he can win in the AL. Masterson is really better in the pen, as he has issues the second or third time around. The bullpen looks pretty solid, though. Jason Varitek's 0.791 OPS is something we can live with, particularly when he has reduced his strikeout percentage to 18%. Has he lost something defensively? That's not clear. Losing Youkilis' bat simply hurts. Great to have beaten the Yankees five straight, but they're like Jason Voorhees...hard to put down. Two of th...