Sunday, May 20, 2012

Quarter Pounded: WYSIATI

I don't have time for any exhaustive review of the first quarter of the season. But if you want answers, simple and painful, they can be distilled into two charts. You must click to see the full charts.

The first examines Red Sox starting pitching. Forget about no Daisuke or Lackey and focus on what is here. First, the Sox are next to last in ERA. They have allowed almost a run more than the league average. Granted the defense is worse than advertised. But look at the best predictor of future ERA, K/BB ratio. With the league average at over 2, the Red Sox are about 1.66 to 1. This also implies that Toronto is living on borrowed time with their staff.

Within the team, you can see where the problems have been, specifically Daniel Bard and Clay Buchholz. Both BARELY exceed parity (1:1) on K/BB. It's easy to understand the K/BB ratio as a ratio examining power and command. So as much as the apologistas want to blame injuries to Ellsbury, Crawford, and Youkilis for the Sox mediocrity, that's not fair. The bullpen has really stepped up, but the front of the staff has underachieved...and the Sox internal best predictor (K/BB) speaks volumes.

WYSIATI. What you see is all there is. So if you want to hate on Bobby Valentine, fine. But he doesn't pitch.

No comments: