Managing Expectations

Alright, I'm getting interested, with the season virtually upon us.

There'll be no "managing expectations", as the media is trying to reload the monkey on the Sox' back, making them the consensus favorite to win the World Series, if not the intergalactic championship should baseball-loving aliens arrive in 2011.

Name some reasons why the Sox could underachieve, and what the likelihood of that is.

• Injury. Who thought that the Sox would lose critical parts of the team (V-Mart, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury) for substantial parts of the season. Sure the Red Sox are viewed as innovators and leaders in sports medicine, but that doesn't prevent fluke injuries...or injuries to key players. 
• Statistical randomness. This can work in either direction for the Red Sox and for their opposition. For example, Mark Belanger was a career .228 hitter, who hit .287 in 1969. Dwight Evans, a .272 career hitter, hit .242 or less three times during his career. Guys have bad years. Even Teddy Ballgame hit .254 in 1959, admittedly at age 40 with 331 at bats. Also, outcomes in close games can also make a huge difference. 
• The "Tigers Effect". IIRC, in 1984, the Detroit Tigers won 35 of their first 40 games, ran away and hid from the field.
• Breakdowns from key players. Last year Jonathan Papelbon had his ups and downs. Will the real Pap please stand up? The trend isn't good, with rising WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and falling strikeout to walk ratio (9.63 in 2008, 3.17 in 2009, and 2.71 in 2010). Red Sox data has shown that K/BB ratio predicts ERA better than prior ERA itself. 
• Chemistry breakdown. Certainly rumors abound about a pitcher sent out of town for ECA (extracurricular activities) and a position player who crossed certain lines never violated. 

Despite the Sox hype about winning more than a hundred games, I don't expect that to happen with a much improved AL East including the ever potent Yankees and the underrated Rays. 

Do I have any "surprises" for the Sox this year?  

1. I think that the biggest surprise will be that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be better than the 'consensus'.  Of course, I don't think that consensus view is much above .500.
2. I think that the right-handed duo of Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald will prove to be a lot more productive than is generally perceived. With the Sox so 'left-handed', getting these guys in the lineup (e.g. RF and DH) may be the smartest move that Francona can make. 
3. Jed Lowrie will get a lot more at bats than currently expected. Marco Scutaro is a 'nice' player, but Lowrie has a higher ceiling. Will Scutaro's injury recur and will the manager just rotate in Lowrie to allow for optimal rest and recovery.
4. Clay Buchholz will end up being the 'best' Sox starter. Simply, Buchholz has hellacious stuff, with two good fastballs, and two excellent complementary pitches, including a dynamite changeup. What made him so effective last year was the evolution of his cutter, which gave him another weapon against lefthanded batters. I saw him outduel Greinke in a 1-0 Fenway classic last year, and he was dynamite. 

Play ball. 

Okay, Okay Already

I can't get overly worked up about Spring Training...especially compared with: 1) my youth basketball coaching, 2) March Madness, and 3) a vacation in the Bahamas. It's not that I don't care about Drew Sutton or Nate Spears, but really. Still, there's a time to spout off.

Buck Showalter. First, Showalter has been a pretty effective manager over the years, with a pair of AL Manager of the Year awards under his belt. Showalter has a rep as a "tough guy", in the cycle of 'player's manager' and authoritarian, also known as 'task-oriented' versus "relationship-oriented". He felt it necessary to diss Derek Jeter (so what?) and Theo Epstein, hinting that being a GM with tons of money is easier than being a GM of a financially challenged franchise. Hey Buck, with the Yankees, your managerial record was .539, and your career managerial record is .517. Did you turn down expensive players when you managed the Bombers?

Daisuke Matsuzaka. No matter what we might think of Matsuzaka as a pitcher regarding consistency, his 1 million dollar donation to Japanese relief says a lot about Matsuzaka the man. Sox fans ought to think about sending something their way as well...

Josh Beckett. Beckett came in good shape and hasn't gotten very good results so far. As I mentioned earlier I'm not that excited about Spring Training. So I'll give Beckett the benefit of the doubt.

Jonathan Papelbon. See Beckett.

LOOGY. Lefty one-out guy. Looks like Dennys Reyes has made almost 9 million dollars playing professional baseball, which is way more than I'll make as a career physician. I guess the argument Babe Ruth made when comparing his salary to the President's, "what kind of year did he have?"

Tim Wakefield. This is a tough call, the sentimental favorite, good soldier, who has the capacity to contribute occasionally, but who is slowed by age and some health issues. Wakefield has also been a great communit guy. Some pitchers, to borrow a Warren Buffett phrase about Mickey Mouse, are like oil wells, where you get to pump the oil out, and the next day, it's back in the well ready to be pumped out again. At this point, you pump a lot, and most of the time, there's not so much oil...as in 'dry well'.  Maybe it's the Mo Vaughn "it's not about the money" thing. Is Wakefield better than Okajima at this point, or Albers, or Aceves? Somehow, it just feels like Wakefield's time has passed. Just saying.

Net worth. So the Red Sox are worth 900 Million dollars now, or at least that's what I heard somewhere. And all this time, I was thinking that John Henry was worrying about where his next meal was coming from. Really, I mean, who's watching the Polk County Championship deciding game tonight, besides me?  Don and Jerry have totally degenerated into "Inane Banter", while Dan Wheeler gets beaten up more than a rented mule.

Scutaro versus Lowrie. "It's not about the money." Says who?

Salty Peppering. Well, once again there's that "it's only Spring Training" thingy. Saltalamacchia has thrown the ball no worse than recent incumbents, and looks like he's got a reasonable stick. Maybe the curse of unlimited potential won't devalue him after all.

Favorite player. I can't help myself from finding Darnell McDonald the guy I root hard for. And with the Sox expecting to see a heavy diet of LHP, Mac may get more at bats than you think.

All that being said, the Notre Dame women looked pretty strong today as they manhandled Oklahoma. And how many coaches go from High School to coaching a powerhouse D1 school? That's what the OU coach Sherri Coale did. March Madness, women's division.

Rank Has Its Privileges

The Globe asks you to rank the Red Sox (whatever that means to you)...

Here goes...

Heaven Can Wait

Heaven can wait, but Spring Training?

With the Celtics on the left coast, the Bruins on break, and the Patriots watching the Super Bowl, we've got awhile to go before waking. But what are the issues, the concerns, yea the heartbreak moments that Sox fans await?

1) Josh Beckett. Last season Beckett was more Glenn than Josh, with a stratospheric E.R.A. and more time on the DL than on the mound. If the Sox REALLY are championship driven, does anyone think that Beckett isn't a key?

2) Backstops. I'm not worried about Saltalamacchia being Mackey Sasser, Steve Sax, Chuck Knoblauch, or the originator, Steve Blass. I'm also conflicted on the "personal catcher" thing. I had a catcher call for a pitchout once on a three-two pitch. Really. At Harvard. Maybe that was his commentary on my abilities...but it was so long ago, that all I can remember is shaking him off.

3) Contract year. Will the real David Ortiz please stand up? But I do think J.D. Drew will play well in his Red Sox swan song...holding place for Ryan Kalish. Call me old-fashioned, but I actually like an outfielder who can run AND throw...unlike so many the Sox have had over the past few years. Maybe they're still remembering Jose Tartabull throwing out Ken Berry in 1967.

4) Injury bug. Everything the Sox and Dustin Pedroia are saying sounds good. And I've heard from my sources that Youkilis is swinging the bat well. Still, you don't know until you know, do you?

5) Competition. I'm not for naming Marco Scutaro ANYTHING. Scutaro had a WAR (wins above replacement value) of 2.1 in 2010, compared to first ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter's astronomical 2.5. Of course, Jed Lowrie in less than half a season had 1.8. By the way, 5 is all-star level.

Terry, Terry, Terry. Do the right thing, baby. The job is a competition, and if Lowrie is healthy (Scutaro, too), then he might just beat him out.


6) Pap smear. Now I'm not saying that Jonathan Papelbon (eight blown saves, 3.80) had a lost year last year. His WAR rating is sliding like magma from Vesuvius in 29 AD.  We'll need another Pliny the Younger to give Pap's fall proper description.

7) Ell's kitchen. Jacoby Ellsbury pulled off a bigger heist than the Brink's Robbery, taking the Red Sox for 2.4 million. Okay, the Sox don't like the adversarial process of having to put down their stars.

8) LOOGY. Lefty One Out Guy. Star of the day, who will it be, your vote may hold the key... does anybody think Oki-Dokey is still the one? Well, that's a competition among so many, from Rich Hill, to Felix (The Cat) Doubront, to Andrew Miller, to Jesse Orosco (just kidding about Orosco). Is Frank Tanana still available?

Doldrums

With still a month to go until spring training, what's interesting these days?

The Yankees response to the Sox off-season was to unload their coffers to Rafael Soriano.

Here's the skinny on Soriano's last two years against Papelbon's. They've both pitched about the same number of innings, with similar strikeout totals, and save totals. Of course, if you look at the WHIP numbers, Soriano has a pretty decided edge. Papelbon's been an intriguing personality and mostly effective closer up until last season. What I can't understand is how a guy who views himself as one of the best relievers in the game has so limited development of secondary pitches. Is that the most professional development available?

I hope that Papelbon has an Eckersley-like Cy Young/MVP 1992 season, but the career trajectory for Papelbon doesn't inspire confidence in that outcome.

The most intriguing story for the Sox isn't the catching, but who plays shortstop. Marco Scutaro had a solid year last season, with his statistics NOT so different from Derek Jeter (really). But is a health Jed Lowrie a better overall player?

I can't stand Scott Boras, but he delivered the goods for his clients. He got a Mendoza line (.196/.325/.407/.732) power hitter (Carlos Pena) 10M, got Beltre 80M, and Soriano 35M. If the AMA got Boras as representation, then maybe I'd join (just kidding).

If the bullpen shapes up with Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Doubront, Wakefield, Okajima...it could be worse.

The big three of Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Vlad Guerrero are out there? Right? What if they all signed with Baltimore? Maybe I'll just grab a pig and take a flight...

And that doesn't count Johnny Damon and Russell Branyan (.215/.319/.483/.802). Where's Branyan's Carlos Pena money?

Albert Pujols' money? What is that?

Who is Pujols? (from www.baseball-reference.com). Here are his 'comps'.

The most important question mark on the team for 2011? For me, it has to be Josh Beckett. We all know he's better than 6 wins, an ERA of 5.78, and 20 homers allowed in 127 innings. But is he the 'Beckett of old' or an "old, injured Beckett"?

A Dollar Doesn't Go So Far

You're complaining about Carl Crawford?

How about this for trivia...who am I?

I pitched for the Red Sox. I have never won 20 games, but 5 of the past 6 years, I have won at least 14 games. I have been an all-star once. I have never won a post-season game. I have never been in the top 10 in the Cy Young Award voting. I will earn 18 MILLION dollars in 2013. Who am I?

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

What a difference a week makes. The Sox moved up the toteboard among the Boston sports scene, maybe even pushing the Patriots aside as they arrived in the Windy City.

Some say Crawford isn't 'worth the money'. Anybody been watching the Rays the past few years. Crawford seemed to have 20 stolen bases a year against the Red Sox. A Yankee fan told me today, that Crawford gets "wasted" playing left field in Boston. Last time I checked, the Sox also play eighty-one games not in "America's Most Beloved Ballpark".

If the Yankees elect to go with their non-defensive catcher, Miguel Montero, Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, and maybe others can run at will. We won't be complaining about the Yankees' short porch, when the Sox have Ellsbury, Crawford, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Drew, Lowrie, and Saltalamacchia in the lineup.

What Sox fans won't be saying now:

• Why are they spending so much money on soccer?
• Why did ticket prices rise?
• Why won't they spend money on free agents?
• Why don't the Sox have a more athletic team?
• Why do concessions cost so much?
• Why should I watch the Sox on TV?
• What is Theo doing?

Nothing guarantees the Sox anything, but you catch a lot more fish with your hook in the water. Right?

We can only hope that the Texarkana connection gets a certain lefthander to the Rangers.

Play (Hard) Ball

This week the Red Sox sent a message to their rivals in New York, we can play your game.

The addition of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the lineup brings a new dimension to the Red Sox lineup, a combination of both speed and power, as well as two Gold Glove caliber defenders. One might make the argument that the Sox are too "left-handed" with the right-handedness coming from:

1) Kevin Youkilis
2) Dustin Pedroia
3) Switch-hitting catchers
4) Mike Cameron in platoon
5) Jed Lowrie/Marco Scutaro at shortstop

Obtaining Russell Martin (via free agency) could take David Ortiz out of the lineup against some lefthanders, creating a lineup against some LHP of:

2B - Pedroia
LF - Crawford
3B - Youkilis
1B - Gonzalez
DH - Martin
RF - Cameron
C - Varitek
SS - Lowrie
CF - Ellsbury

Obviously, there remains a possibility of additional trades.

Play ball.

Yo, Adrian!

We'll see how it turns out, but the Red Sox and Padres apparently have a deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

I'd guess that the Padres get:

• Casey Kelly
• Anthony Rizzo
• Ryan Kalish
• Luis Exposito

But I certainly don't know. I like Kalish better than Jacoby Ellsbury, because I like outfielders who can throw, but that's just me. 

The Brandon Duckworth Era is Here

There is news!

Rumor has it that the Red Sox have signed Brandon Duckworth (Ode to Joy plays). What? Welcome to the Brandon Duckworth era...

Uber-site MLBTraderumors.com reports that Adrian Beltre would PREFER to return to the Red Sox. Let's not confuse preference with dollar signs. This would obviously invalidate my Paul Konerko (White Sox) sneaking in the back door theory.

I see the lack of right-handed power depth as the number one issue to be resolved by the Sox this offseason, closely followed by the bullpen.

The Red Sox resigned Jason Varitek today, presumably as some combination of the Beckett-Lackey binky, and for platoon against left-handing pitching. Could the Red Sox ability to throw out runners stealing actually go down? Maybe signing Carl Crawford could help rectify that?

Maybe Sox fans will get an early Christmas present, but I'm not holding my breath.

Hot Stove Starting to Warm

The hot stove has started to warm up, with Javier Vasquez (Marlins) and Jon Garland (Dodgers) signing, and more rumors coming along.

The "definitive rumor" site is MLB Trade Rumors.

Currently, the Red Sox "prospective" lineup looks something like this.

Lineup (9)
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury
2B - Dustin Pedroia
DH - David Ortiz
1B - Kevin Youkilis
OF - J.D. Drew
3B - Jed Lowrie
C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia
OF - Mike Cameron
SS - Marco Scutaro

Bench (5 to be filled) Varitek (free agent), Darnell McDonald, Eric Patterson, Ryan Kalish

Pitchers (11 to be filled)
Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett, Matsuzaka
Bullpen: Papelbon, Bard, Atchison, Doubront (2 to be filled)

The immediate issues without much imagination:
1) Very limited right-handed power (options Adrian Beltre, Paul Konerko, Jason Werth)
2) Bullpen inconsistency (options Kerry Wood, Scott Downs, J.J. Putz, Grant Balfour, Arthur Rhodes)
3) Uncertainty at catcher (no immediate solution)
4) Blockbuster trades (have to acquire power hitters)

Currently the fans seem concerned about the Sox "going cheap", and accumulating/over-rating draft choices. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Theo Epstein's office. Free agents (to an extent) wait for the market to be set, so we'll have to wait. Although most of the issue becomes money, there's also geography, and their role. We have to trust that the Sox "brain trust" is spending as much time try to solve the problems as Sox fans collectively spend thinking about them.

We Can Only Hope

If it's true that Derek Jeter sought a 6 year, 150 million dollar contract from the Yankees, then we should wish him well and encourage his masters to pay through the wazoo nose. Giving Jeter megabucks might only shift the Bronx budget away from productive to less-productive assets. Jeter's argument must go something like, "A-Rod gets 30 million and I'm gonna get 15, bleeping chump change. Who's done more for the franchise? Who's the face of the Yankees?"

Last time I checked, contracts weren't like the Oscars "lifetime achievement awards", but compensation for expected production. Well, we can only hope.

God knows that the Sox shortstop dollar black hole has gone through Lugoland and Renteriaville en route to its current occupant...Theo said, "Marco" and got "Polo" in return.

Scutaro (OPS .721) outperformed Jeter (OPS .710) in 2010, and out-homered the Bronx bummer, 11-10. Last I checked, though, Jeter was in the playoffs for like the 15th time (maybe not) and Scutaro was home resting his shoulder.

Never fear though, the Red Sox chances of returning to post-season play are increasing day-by-day, as Major League Baseball ponders expanding its post-season format, adding another best-of-three series for Wild-card wannabes. Will it be called "Deuces wild" or something clever like "Wallet biopsy"? The winner will come out with either its top two or three pitchers AND bullpen spent, so that facing the expanded playoff winner will really BE an advantage.

Faux news? I asked a Red Sox employee recently whether he had any 'misinformation' that fans might appreciate. I commented that you see a lot less of the "worn cap" look popularized by Trot Nixon, Mike Timlin, and others. He reported that Wade Boggs was never as big a 'chicken diet' adherent as alleged, and that Nomar Garciaparra had a lucky t-shirt that looked holier than Swiss cheese by the end of the season. Sure, I've got more, but what you see there and say there, stays there. So now you now.

To Victor Goes the Spoils

It's still early in the off-season, and so far the Red Sox signing a minor league free agent hasn't exactly reassured the Nation. Even the knowledge that the Yankees and Derek Jeter are farther apart than the sun and the moon doesn't help much.

Victor Martinez pockets 50M and four years, because the Tigers give him a chance to win a ring. For crissakes, I'd probably fall over if an athlete ever said he made a great decision for his family and took the money. THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. But it's wrong "to seem greedy", but okay to be greedy?

Thus far, the scoreboard shows negative progress at catcher and third base (presuming the imminent departure of Adrian Beltre), and the best news for most fans that J.D. Drew has a contract year to play for. Word has it that David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis are both working out at Fenway, that Dustin Pedroia is on the mend on the left coast.

I'm going to work on the assumption that Jacoby Ellsbury's address is going to be on the west coast next year, meaning that the Red Sox need to find another full-time outfielder to mix and match with the motley combination of Drew, Mike Cameron, Darnell McDonald, and Ryan Kalish.

Of course, the Sox had a glaring weakness in the bullpen, which had Daniel Bard as the most effective member, Jonathan Papelbon as an oft one-pitch closer (that can be cured), and a mystery as to whether the Atchisons, Doubronts, and Okajimas can overachieve to adequacy if not greatness. Other teams like Texas seem to have an endless supply of guys who throw high 90s, while the Sox accumulate draft choices.

"Only fools and children judge jobs part done." There's still plenty of time between now and April for Theo Epstein to retool the lineup and the bullpen. But with the Patriots and Celtics getting the limelight, the Sox can't want to be seen as the lemons on the local sports scene.

Perspectives on Free Agency

Free agency has started, and the goal is to strengthen your team without suffering "The Winner's Curse". Overpaying for players who had exceptional years or who are likely at the downhill crossroads of their career can put a franchise in 'jail' for years. The Red Sox have suffered the consequences of poor judgments on Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo, yet benefited from correct reads on Jason Bay (six homers this season for the Mets).

Money always comes onto or off the payroll. After this year's loss of interest in the injured and underachieving Sox, there's a perception that the Sox "must" be a big player to regain media attention and credibility. Does Sox upper management have its collective eyes on the ball, or are they more concerned with diversifying the empire via NASCAR and soccer?

As far as the numero uno free agent on the market, Cliff Lee, don't expect the Red Sox to be chasing him. They've got Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett, and Matsuzaka, as well as numerous prospects. They're far more likely to spend the money on bat, with major holes to fill at catcher, first or third, and a need for an outfield power bat. The other issue is whether Jed Lowrie deserves a shot at the everyday shortstop job, and the implications for Marco Scutaro and Jose Iglesias. Lowrie has filled the Tim Naehring designated injury slot, but hit exceptionally well when healthy.

Sox fans could easily live with bringing Beltre back and Jason Werth in, but the likelihood of signing multiple Boras clients after the Teixeira fiasco seems remote. A trade for Adrian Gonzalez would strip the farm system (e.g. Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and more) and require something in the 22-25 million dollar a year money range to satisfy his contractual expectations. Obtaining a Paul Konerko (first), while moving Youkilis to third still leaves the need for an outfield bat, and neither Carl Crawford or Werth will come cheap.

What the Sox expect from Mike Cameron remains to be seen, but last year's 8 million dollars went down the drain. The Sox failure to develop power hitters is coming back to bite them, and the fans aren't likely to wait for Rizzo or Ryan Lavarnaway.

Can You Stand It? Just sayin'.

I haven't written much lately here, because I've been busy with broadcasting a cable sports show, high school football and volleyball, and maintaining my investment/trading blog. But even I can only resist so long.

The Red Sox handled the departure of pitching coach John Farrell with class and dignity. Farrell added a lot to the organization and the Sox had only praise for the new Jays' skipper.

I don't want to boast too much, but I had my prediction of the Giants winning here. Take my word for it. Seeing former Sox Edgar Renteria, Javier Lopez, and Ramon Ramirez having success makes us ask that unwanted question, "how come we can't get guys like that?"

As for the downside, what is local favorite David Ortiz thinking (in this economy) when he talks about not being comfortable in a contract year? Does he think all Sox fans are drinking Four Loko? Presuming the Sox pick up his option, a very reasonable assumption, he'll pocket 12 million dollars. If he could scrape by on a couple of million, then after taxes he could save over five million dollars and be set for life. I guess it's the 'bonfire of the vanities'. Ortiz continues to be productive, whatever his age, in US or Dominican years.

Tim Wakefield receives the prestigious Roberto Clemente community service award. Will that be the crowning achievement of his long Sox career?

Plenty of questions for the Sox in the off season. One has to be, how do you tell players you have no money after you spend over four hundred million to buy an English soccer franchise. No doubt that will mean LISN, the Liverpool Sports Network.

I had the opportunity to meet Sam Kennedy, Sox COO and Executive Vice President. I'm sure he enjoyed being able to announce another ticket increase for a non-playoff team. Maybe the Sox are pounding the table for expanded playoffs. Let's make it the NBA where 16 teams make it. The Sox can achieve post-season competition annually and declare every year a success. Think I have to throw up in my mouth on that one.

Questions? You betcha.

• Ginger or Maryann? Papelbon or Bard?
• Big splash? Ellsbury, Matsuzaka, and Casey Kelly for Adrian Gonzalez?
• Does Ryan Kalish have an equal or better upside potential to Jacoby?
• If the Sox aren't serious about V-Mart, then who's it gonna be? Buck, Benji, or Salty?
• Will Jason Varitek be back as backup catcher?
• Is Marco Scutaro the healing incumbent or will the productive Jed Lowrie get the shot?
• Who's in the rebuilt bullpen? 
• Who's on third? Youkilis after 
• Beltre's departure? 

So, here's a potential lineup?

LF - Kalish

2B - Pedroia

1B - Gonzalez

DH- Ortiz

3B - Youkilis

RF - Drew

C -  Buck 

CF - Cameron

SS - Lowrie

Just sayin'. Go Giants.

Haven't Got Time for the Pain

I haven't written much about the Red Sox lately, because frankly I haven't got time for the pain.

A lot of factors go into the success or failure of a baseball season, including "relative" performance to statistical norms, managing, luck, consistency, injuries, and even 'acts of God'. I saw a highlight clip of a ball hitting a bird and deflecting past an outfielder for a walkoff hit.  But after yesterday's embarrassing loss to the White Sox, I needed some catharsis.

Perhaps the Red Sox can't change anything about this season, but as for next season, some changes are in order. In no particular ranking:

1) Third base coaching. The best third base coaching occurs when nobody knows the coach's name. We've have Dale "Sveum it ain't so", Wendell "Send 'em in Kim", and Tim "Boo-boo" Bogar. DeMarlo Hale was fantastic but Bogar didn't really cut the mustard. I'm being kind.

2) Bullpen restructuring. Okay, the four walks in a row yesterday sent me over the edge. It was the Sam McDowell, Matt Young, Steve Blass kind of performance that deserves professional help. Papelbon's disgust and lack of empathy after the game deserves a little back room discussion from the manager. Be a good teammate; be a professional. As for Papelbon himself, he had a terrific stretch when he got back to using all his pitches. When he throws nothing but fastballs, it's not working.

3) There's only so much you can do about injuries. It's not bad enough to lose the right side of the infield, catchers for too long, but Marco Scutaro is throwing lollipops to first. How bad is his shoulder, anyway?

4) Statistical variation. Who played "up to expected levels" when adjusted for injury time? Drew, Youkilis, Pedroia, Martinez, and Scutaro all really did what they do. Beltre and Ortiz exceeded expectations, as did Bill Hall. Darnell McDonald excelled as a fourth outfielder. For the minimal time he wasn't sick or injured, Jed Lowrie was decent.

The combined left and centerfield positions were pretty much a disaster of biblical or 'Titanic' proportions.

Obviously, the Sox expected more from Beckett and Lackey, and the bullpen for the second half struggled to put it mildly. The bullpen needs a complete makeover excepting Daniel Bard. Presumably a healthy Beckett and Lackey do better; Lester and Buchholz couldn't do much better.

5) Run prevention. When does that start again?

6) What do they do with Beltre, Ortiz, and V-Mart? With Youkilis out, they became the offensive core. Do we just start all over again? We can't know what the organization is thinking,

7) How do they address the Ellsbury situation? Currently, he's simply damaged goods, and only management knows where his head is at.

8) "Power outage". Is this fair? As tough as it may seem to believe, the Sox are second in runs scored to the Yankees and second in homers to Toronto. Sans Ellsbury, they are last in stolen bases with a mere 47. Somehow, they need to get a power hitter (e.g. Adrian Gonzalez). Casey Kelly, we barely knew ya.

9) The deciders. Is management going to spend the money coming off the payrolls? Lowell's pay is a big lump and what they do with Ortiz and V-Mart is another 20 million dollar decision. Are they done paying for nonproductive shortstops? Can they afford to watch Papelbon ask for Rivera money with declining effectiveness?

10) Papelbon's ERA skyrocket to over 3, along with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.5, not great for a power closer. I'm not suggesting Daniel Bard has won the job; he's never even auditioned for it. They do have to make a call. At 9.35 million dollars (per ESPN) for Papelbon, that's a big piece of change. 

No Mad: Damon...No Way.

Johnny Damon turned down the Hub for the Motor City. Can't you see it now? The Dan Shaughnessy column comparing Boston and Detroit, yada, yada, yada.

Player A has over 400 at bats this season. Player B has 255 at bats. Player A can't throw the ball better than my 22 year old daughter. Player B is a competent outfielder defensively. Player A has simply moved on from the Red Sox and Player B is trying to establish himself as a permanent professional ballplayer.

Player A doesn't want to be in Boston and Player B appreciates the opportunity. Player A is Johnny Damon and Player B is Darnell McDonald.

Seeing Is Believing

Have you been paying attention? Tonight Ryan Kalish played center field for the Sox. His box score (3 0 0 0) does show much of an impact, does it?

Early in the game, Kalish fielded a base hit into the gap and gunned the runner out at second, possibly saving a run. Historically, we've had some weak arms in center (Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury), so this is at least a temporary upgrade. Later, with runners on first and second and no out, he executed a sacrifice bunt perfectly, advancing the runners, who then scored on a Scutaro single.

So, with "nothing" in the box score, Kalish made a significant contribution both offensively and defensively. Seeing is believing.

Silver Linings

I'm not on the bandwagon, analytically anyway. But the 2010 season hasn't been all negative. If the season is a marathon not a sprint, then so we ask whether younger blood might help carry the team forward.

Assessing the "youth" by position (ignoring the established 'younger' veterans in Youkilis (1B-3B) and Pedroia (2B), the Sox have (through the system) established more prospects.

C - Saltalamacchia, Exposito, Lavarnaway, Ibarra (Wagner, Brown blocked?)
1B - Rizzo (young power hitter), Anderson (hitting better lately)
Middle infield- Lowrie, Y. Navarro, Iglesias
3B- Middlebrooks
OF- Kalish, Reddick, Lin (defensively)

SP- established 5 starters, 2 very young (Lester, Buchholz), Doubront
RP - Bard, Bowden (what will they do with Papelbon?)
Top prospects- Kelly, Weiland, Fife, Ranaudo

Power-hitting outfielders, especially right-handed, look to be the system 'deficiency'.

Dear Theo Epstein

Dear Theo Epstein:

Realistically, the Red Sox aren't buried, but are they dead?

Tampa has 40 games to go, playing over .600 ball. If they continue to 'struggle' and win 20, they finish 94-48. To tie them, the Sox must win 25 of their final 39 to tie.  If Tampa even goes 22-18 (96 wins), then the Sox must go 27-12, in other words, play almost .700 ball down the stretch.
Even if the Sox had their full roster, that's not happening.

If the Sox don't beat Toronto the next two games, then Theo Epstein should think the unthinkable, sell 'em off. If you're not going to make a max effort to re-up Beltre (likely 4 by 60) and Martinez (maybe 4 by 10) and pay Papelbon 10 million (a total of 110 million), then maybe the Sox go into selling mode, in order to retool for 2011.

Among Beltre, Martinez, and Papelbon, you should be able to get useful if not premium pieces, as you're not selling off junk, realizing that what you're not trading is quality but not duration, as you don't have a lot of control.

The 2011 rebuild isn't as bad as it seems.

C - Saltalamacchia and wait for your prospects
1B - Adrian Gonzalez for Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, and another piece.
2B - Pedroia is healthy
3B - Youkilis slides to third base.
SS -  Scutaro for another year, with prospects in the pipeline
LF - Kalish
CF - Cameron, while you wait
RF - Drew, last year of his contract
Extra - McDonald, earned a ticket back with a raise
Extra - Lowrie, with a chance to compete for the shortstop job
DH - ah, there's the rub...do you extend Ortiz


SP: Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Matsuzaka
RP: Rebuild: Bard, Atchison, Bowden, Doubront, Richardson...

The bullpen reclamation seems to be an annual issue, and the Papelbon question is a huge overhang, both structurally and financially. The trend is negative, although he's still a young guy.  They could try to move Matsuzaka to the West coast, but are they going to get value for a guy who could win 15 games a year for a couple of years?

The free agent market is a bit thin, with the prime piece Albert Pujols, who isn't going anywhere. Carl Crawford would be an attractive acquisition, and the Sox should have a lot of money coming off the books (Lowell, Varitek, Wakefield, Beltre, Martinez, Hall). Obviously, if they're willing to part with Casey Kelly, then they'd be able to at least enter the Gonzalez sweeps.

Sox fans will miss the classy veterans Mike Lowell and Tim Wakefield, but realistically need to get younger and more athletic.

Developmentally, the Sox are waiting on Anthony Rizzo (1B) who has apparently moved ahead of Lars Anderson, the Navarro-Iglesias battle for shortstop, and it's hard to expect Anthony Ranaudo to be ready before late 2012 at the earliest. Do the Sox have any power-hitting outfielders coming through the system and what's their alternative?

I've done my own surveys, and Sox fans are ready to accept reality and move on. Can you?