Monday, January 29, 2007

"Babe Ruth is Dead"

Rockies owner Charlie Monfort comes off sounding like a third world dictator saying, "we won't deal Helton 'for nothing'. Let's look at the facts, in a trending world. Let's also realize that historically players have tended to peak at about age 27, and sometimes when they go downhill, they go downhill rapidly (e.g. Jim Rice).

Player A has 22 win shares in 2006, and actually plays for the Red Sox. Only 2.9 of the win shares came from fielding.

Player B (Helton) has a steadily declining number of win shares, 23 last year and a megamillion dollar contract. Who the $%&#%& do you think you're talking about here, Babe Ruth?_____________________________________________
Helton has been an on-base machine, formerly with a lot of power, but something seems to have affected him, be it age or otherwise, as his production has fallen off dramatically. Helton scored 94 runs, had 15 homers, and 81 RBI last year in thin-aired Colorado, playing in 145 games. Helton is 33 years old and made 16.6 million dollars last year.

Player A scored 100 runs, with 13 homers and 72 RBI for the Red Sox, and at age 27 made $354,000. Player A is Kevin Youkilis.

Mr. Monfort, I'm sure that you're an intelligent, sophisticated baseball fan, who made a good faith deal to pay Todd Helton 'market value'. Well, Mr. Colorado Rockies owner, it looks like you got taken, and the Red Sox aren't going to bail you out.

Maybe you should run out an buy "The Winners Curse" by Richard Thal, but we Red Sox fans aren't desperate residents of Loserville, or oxygen-starved high-altitude owners looking for redemption. Todd Helton was a great player, but it sure doesn't look like he's the same guy. John Henry made hundreds of millions doing trend analysis, and this doesn't look like a 'Turtle Trade' breakout from here.

And if the Sox satisfy your every wishes, or even your posturing wishes, then Theo and the Trio are a lot stupider than I think.

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