Red Sox Reality Check

Click tables to ENLARGE. Bill James' interview starts soon on '60 Minutes'. We don't know exactly what James does, he is the Red Sox equivalent of the Patriots' Ernie Adams. What we know is the lanky Kansan's ability to sort baseball's wheat from its chaff among the myriad baseball statistics we cherish. The Red Sox adopted not only the Moneyball strategy, but employ its chief architect. We know that the Red Sox have been among the leaders in OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) that translates into run production and know that strikeout to walk ratios predict future E.R.A. better than E.R.A. itself. Bill James' innovative creations (e.g. Win Shares) has produced results and championships for the Sox. In a bottom line business, James could easily, dollar for dollar be one of the Red Sox best investments. With threshold for 'All-Star' type seasons at 20 and MVP at 30, the Red Sox statistics translate into victories. Red Sox 2007 win shares (fro...

We know that the Red Sox didn't take much of a hit in the Mitchell report, for whatever reason. NONE of us believe that the Sox avoided the scandal, and Eric Gagne and Brendan Donnelly both got passing mention. Some argue that aside from baseball's fascination with numbers, nobody got hurt. Is that really the case? I'm not addressing the health issues involved with anabolic steroids or growth hormone, but rather the competitive ones. We know about the massive contracts and muscles of Bonds and Giambi, but what we don't see are the wounds of those that never made the show. I spoke with a family of one player, a non-drafted free agent who had some success in the minor leagues, but ultimately retired gracefully to the business world when injuries caught up with him. They said he wasn't so much bitter as frustrated by his experience. Frustrated by an inability to compete on a level playing field with others who took performance enhancing substances. Why didn't he b...

Former Orioles pitching coach used to say, "throw strikes, change speeds, and work fast." Well, after two games, Red Sox pitching could use a little refresher course, as Daisuke and Jon Lester took more than a little walk on the wild side, either wild outside the zone (bases on balls) or inside (homeruns). Just got to stop. Of course, it's only two games into the March season, so let's not get crazy. In Marathon City, we've only left the starting gate.

WYSIWIG...what you see is what you get. Daisuke Matsuzaka struggled with command early, but somehow got through five innings. The so-called 'power nibbler' style got him in trouble with five walks, and Mark Ellis (homer) looks to be a Red Sox killer in the tradition of Gates Brown and Amos Otis. The Sox got saved by the most unlikely hero, with rookie Brandon (don't call me Brandy) Moss delivering a ninth inning tater to tie the game with just two outs remaining. Oakland closer Huston (we have a problem) Street got tagged with not just the blown save but the loss. Manny Ramirez forgot to run out a "milk" double in the tenth that delivered the winning runs. Manny, it's not the Bad News Bears, just run it out. On the other hand better to have something to run out than not. Rookie Jacoby Ellsbury made a highlight reel catch in the eighth off a smash against Bryan Corey. All in all, excepting the early morning offering (Breakfast Baseball in Beantown) a very satis...

Yes, Red Sox younger players have spoiled Sox fans over the past few years. Papelbon, one of the top 3 closers in the AL (Putz, Papelbon, Rivera) Pedroia, Rookie of the Year Ellsbury, playoff and World Series catalyst Lester, World Series clincher and inspirational health story Youkilis, Gold Glove and productive Moneyball player Matsuzaka (well he was an MLB rookie) Okajima (ditto) Hanley Ramirez, well he was our guy So expectations for Clay Buchholz are high, particular as the duo of Buchholz and Lester inevitably will receive comparison to the Bombers Hughes, Chamberlain, and others. First, Buchholz isn't going to win 20 this season. Johan Santana might not either, even with 32 starts, and the handicap of being pinch hit for in the National League. Second, there will be rough spots for Buchholz, days where his fastball command suffers, or he can't get the 'feel' on that 12 to 6 curve, especially with the frigid Boston spring. So we have choices. Support him through t...

It's hard to get overly worked up about the Red Sox so far, with the biggest controversies being the Mirabelli firing and the players' support for coaches. Mirabelli deserved credit for his handling of Tim Wakefield over the years. But his skills had atrophied, and the catching position remains an Achilles Heel should Varitek go down. Sentiment usually runs deep with vet cuts, yet Mirabelli never was Troy Brown. As for the players' boycott threat, one finds it difficult to measure the risk that they took in order to get what they sought. Some people risk everything, and sacrifice much for others (e.g. military personnel and public safety workers). What the players did was thoughtful, but not remarkable. Coaches deserve credit and compensation, and I'm happy for them. How much weight should be given to Spring Training performances? Not much. Good-bye to Fort Myers? Rumors have that the Red Sox are disappointed in the community commitment to upgrading the neighborhood, an...

As Spring Training winds down, we see a more competitive American League, with the usual suspects in the AL East, the power struggle between Cleveland, Detroit, and improving Chicago in the Central, and the Angels and the Mariners improved in the West. The Red Sox concern currently reflects the Far East trip and the health of Josh Beckett's back, making the starting rotation shakier NOW. Let's presume that Daisuke Matsuzaka is good for at least another 15 wins, that Tim Wakefield can stay healthy (and .500), and we expect Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz to be very serviceable starters in the four and five (or three and five) spots. To quote Billy Beane, "we're not selling jeans here." Bartolo Colon , when healthy, can throw strikes with something on them. He hasn't been consistent the past couple of seasons because of health, but he hasn't been thin for as long as I can remember. If he can't go, I believe Kyle Snyder has value for five innings as he has r...

Jonathan Papelbon is underpaid. Well, the sun will come up in the morning, too. MLB has a salary structure, grossly overweighted in favor of the players. I can argue that I am at the top of my game (debatable) and I will never come close to making the major league minimum as a doctor with 25 years experience. But Papelbon has a choice. He can get paid now or wait. Let us say for convenience sake that he gets 750 grand, or has a choice to sign a three year deal for 12 million. He can take a chance on injury or just performance variability, and if he tears a rotator cuff, then he does not get the big pay day. Or he can take the money and give up some negotiating freedom going forward. I am not saying that he is greedy, only that he has options, far more than EVERY other reader of this column (EVER). Sure, we are comparing apples to oranges. Who adds more value to the world, a terrific school teacher, the best ICU nurse around, Mother Teresa, or one of the best relief pitchers in baseball...