Red Sox Reality Check

Here's the direction that Theo Epstein travels with his relentless pursuit of J.D. Drew and efforts to dispatch Manny Ramirez. Yes, ponying up ridiculous sums for a corner outfielder with a checkered health past has opportunities. Maybe Partners Healthcare will sponsor J.D. Drew as the Partners Red Sox outfielder. Sure, that's the ticket, another marketing opportunity. J.D. Drew, when healthy, and motivated, has skilz. Availability? That of course, is another question. Some have speculated that Drew's signing somehow links to Matsuzaka's via the Boras connection. Doubtful. Boras isn't a guy who leaves a nickel on the table. Should we hate him because he does his job well? Don't answer that. As for trading Manny for prospects or the likes of Scott Linebrink , was Linebrink a little off last year, or is he in a downtrend? Is a guy with an average win share rating of ten, your kind of guy? Eerily, this has the feeling of A Christmas Carol, with Theo playing the rol...

I haven't taken any position on the J.D. Drew free agent acquisition 'controversy', mostly because I haven't really studied it. Let's run the numbers first, and then come back to intangibles. Bill James' analysis: WIN SHARES 2004: 34 2005: 13 2006: 21 Meatloaf says, "two out of three ain't bad," so I'll defer to him. Drew obviously played at an extraordinary level in 2004 and rebounded to 'All-Star' caliber play last year, ergo, the big payday. The Big Picture : Baseball Reference - Overall career stats: .286/.393/.512/.905 Scored 100 runs once, 100 RBI once. Similarity scores: most similar player TROT NIXON Similar batters through age 30: include Jim Edmonds, Larry Doby, Kirk Gibson, David Justice Three year statistics : .293/.415/.532/.947 Pre and post All-Star similar .263/.387/.427/.815 versus LHP very few appearances versus AL East rivals Comments: Bill Belichick talks about the importance of both ABILITY and DURABILITY. The money...

Many ballplayers deserve the title, "Red Sox killers", through the years, from the infamous (Bucky Dent) to the lesser known (Gates Brown). A free agent pitcher who seems to have dominated them through the years is Ted Lilly . Let's take a look at his recent career and try to get inside the Red Sox front office's collective psyche concerning Lilly. First, the thirty-year old southpaw is a career .500 pitcher (59-58) with a 4.52 ERA. For the past three seasons, he is 37-34, with ERAs from 4.06 to 5.56 and an average WHIP ratio of 1.42 (not that great). He's been plagued by the gopher ball, surrendering an average of 26 homers/year during three years as well with a strikeout/walk ratio of 424/228. From the Jamesian Win Shares perspective, he had 16, 4, and 12 from 2004 to 2006. For three year splits , he has allowed opponents to hit .249 with .755 OPS against and had similar ERA at home and away. He's pitched about the same before and after the All-Star break bu...

Oh to be a fly on the wall at the Fenway Park Baseball Operations suites. With the countdown on Daisy Matsuzaka in progress, the Sox have to consider the total experience for a Japanese import. And who better to know than someone with American League and Red Sox experience, Tomo Ohka. Let's run the numbers. Ohka has had a WHIP ratio of 1.31 to 1.39 the past three years in the NL. The good news is that he had excellent control, averaging about three walks per nine innings. The bad news has been that his ERA has been rising, and his win shares haven't, 4 in 2004, 8 in 2005, and 5 in 2006. He has pitched better on the road than at home the past few seasons, but hasn't pitched enough against AL teams to have a read on that. Is he under consideration to add to his 10 million in career earnings? 10 million bucks and 48 career wins. What a country!

Examining the first full season of Kevin Youkilis, I'm struck by the disparity between his Moneyball reputation and what actually transpired. At first base, Youkilis had question marks written all over him. Defensively, he proved to be more than adequate. Offensively , at .279/.381/.429/.810 he proved to be, what? With 91 walks he finished seventh in the AL, and he was eighth in doubles, and tenth in times on base. With 100 runs scored, his thirteen homers and seventy-two RBI seemed adequate, as long as he was hitting leadoff or second. Now for the issues. His home versus away OPS was .844 versus .774 and pre-All-Star game he was .874 and post .728. His leadoff OPS was .815 and his leadoff OBP was .385. Although he fanned 120 times, 68 came before the All-Star break. He was tied for second in OBP as first baseball with Paul Konerko, behind Jason 'Juice Guy' Giambi, led 'qualified' AL first basemen in runs scored, but was eighth of eight first basemen in OPS. The AL...

The Red Sox continue to work under the radar to renovate last year's Poseidon Adventure. "There's no crying in baseball", so let's focus on what is, not what might be. The Sox struggled mightily down the stretch, both OFFENSIVELY and defensively (pitching). Offensively, what changed? No Manny Ramirez, no production. The sanctimonious buzzards (polite words) of the press want somebody who busts his tail every time he grounds out to short, and puts up big numbers. He must also communicate as effectively as say, Mike Greenwell, a media darling who averaged 10 homers and 60 RBI his last SIX seasons in Boston, and played left field as though he needed a helmet.Let's recite the reasons Manny Must Go. He doesn't run out every groundball (see Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski). He's overpaid. Almost everyone in baseball is overpaid. He doesn't produce enough. Compared to Hank Aaron or Willie Mays? Similar batters through age 34 at Baseball Reference include G...

The American League named Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau the AL MVP for 2006 today, beating out Derek Jeter and a distant third Sox DH David Ortiz. Let's look at some numbers within the context of the recognition that shortstop is a much more valued defensive position than first base, although Morneau fielded well and had a solid range factor. Although Jeter won the Gold Glove, many observers would rate him defensively behind a number of AL shortstops defensively, including Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, and arguably Miguel Tejada. Jeter .343/.417/.483/.900 118 runs, 14 homers, 97 RBI Morneau .321/.375/.559/.934 97 runs, 34 homers, 130 RBI Ortiz .287/.413/.636/1.049 115 runs, 54 homers, 137 RBI Jeter proponents may argue the 'lifetime achievement' award factor, that he deserves recognition for the entire body of work for his career. Because the award does not include the playoffs, no issue arises there. Morneau had a solid but unspectacular stretch run (.879 OPS Aug...

Frank Catalanotto has been a Red Sox killer, and apparently he has signed with the Texas Rangers for about thirteen million dollars for a three-year deal. He is a 'classic' Moneyball player, with good on-base-percentage (.297/.362/.454/.816), generally mediocre defense, and at this point in his career does not run. His best season he hit .300, and had 83 runs scored, 13 homers, and 59 RBI. Do you want that for your corner outfield, DH, or first baseman? At second base his range factor (in limited appearances) is poor, 2.97 compared to a league average of 4.33. His similarity scores include Shane Mack, Jay Payton, and Shea Hillenbrand. Texas is rumored to be one of the teams inquiring about Manny Ramirez (a 10 and 5 man who must agree to any deals), whose value escalates in view of the Soriano deal at 17 million per for a mind-numbing eight years. My friends argue that Texas' chance of EVER winning are hurt by their grueling heat, which wears pitchers down, particularly dur...

Some wag once said the problem with free agency wasn't paying the stars but the high price of mediocrity. I'd say there's a bit of both. Alfonso Soriano apparently gets 'Derek Jeter money' and we've yet to hear whether Nomar Garciaparra, who spurned 15 extra large per year for four years will get anything close to that in Dodgerland. Meanwhile, Alex Gonzalez parlayed his defensive excellence into almost five million dollars a year, which certainly makes signing Alex Cora at two million a year seem like chicken feed. Actually, the commercials are pretty short corn futures , so maybe chicken feed will come down. I'm sure that Mr. Henry would be able to give me a better answer on that. And how will the Red Sox willingness to spend 51.1 mill to talk with the Japanese not spill over into the broader market? Why should a college or high school free agent be bound by the MLB draft rules as the Players' Association hasn't negotiated on their behalf? And why ...

The Red Sox seem to have this fascination with Julio Lugo. Until today, I didn't even know he is only one of three Lugos to play in the majors, another being his brother Ruddy. Why the obsession with Lugo? Is he a terrific player, or does he just have pictures of the front office? In the similarity scores at Baseball Reference , Lugos ten comps include Adam Kennedy, Rafael Furcal, David Eckstein, Eddie Bressoud, Pat Meares, Cristian Guzman, and Rafael Furcal. Not a whole lot of household names there, unless your household is Baseball Prospectus. Last year in split duty with Tampa and the Dodgers, he had 12 homers, 24 stolen bases, and was .341/.421/.762. His batting numbers with the Dodgers were hideous, .278/.267/.548. His fielding percentage at shortstop was .957 (Alex Gonzalez was .985 I think), with an average range factor. In other words, he was a decent stick, but not so great with the leather. Ordinarily he had a higher fielding percentage and range factor, but the fielding ...

Whoa! This Matsuzaka guy has it together, hiring Borat as his agent. Maybe Borat has some quotes for Boston American baseball fans. Reality Check: Welcome to Boston, Borat. How does your client feel about coming to America? Borat: My country send me to US to make hero worship and lots of American money. Reality Check: What does Daisuke think of Boston? Borat: You are stupid. Boston people worship Japanese baseball pitcher, welcome with open wallets. Reality Check: Do you have a negotiating strategy with Theo Epstein? Borat: I did not come to Bean City to negotiate. We come to get paid, in many American ways and maybe in Euros. Reality Check: Have you met the Red Sox negotiating team? Borat: Have you no sense of smell? I have met with many of theme. Can you not sniff that? Reality Check: Does Mr. Matsuzaka look forward to playing with any of the current Red Sox? Borat: Cultural exchange big part of baseball experience. Daisuke know of warmth of Sox penthouse where players stay. Reality ...

Theo Epstein has some valuable assets working with him, and we can only hope that the GM has some Game Theory background. As a trader, I'd be shocked if John Henry didn't have some or perhaps read Richard Thal's book, The Winner's Curse . Here's a little sample of Game Theory to ponder. How'd you like them applets? David Marasco has more on The Winner's Curse. I regularly discuss investing and the stock market at one of my other sites , and one of the most important principles in trading is similar, "buy 'em when you can, not when you have to." Most people tend to invest when the price is high, rather than when the price is low. We also tend to overvalue what is 'ours'. A lot of free agent pitchers have turned out to be busts, for example Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, and Matt Clement. Of course, Curt Schilling helped bring the Sox to the Promised Land. Epstein and the Sox braintrust have apparently made a bold move in bidding high for Ma...

Wow. I didn't know " daisy chain " had so many meanings. Maybe another will be the sequence of events leading the Red Sox to the front-runner position to negotiate for Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. If the Sox do win his signing rights AND sign him, then the first order of business will be nicknames. Matsuzaka certainly has quite a resume in Japanese baseball, and the Sox obviously wanted to atone for last season's atrocity with a big splash. Dealing with $cott Bora$ won't be easy under the best of circumstances. I'm sure that Boras has a coffee-table book already prepared explaining how Daisy already belongs in the Hall of Fame. Let's look at some other Daisies. Daisy Duck. Those of us old enough to remember L'il Abner and Al Capp remember Daisy Mae. And the Dukes of Hazzard give us Daisy Duke... So what have we here? Daisy Mats? Daiszilla? Yeah, Daiszilla. Bring on Daiszilla.

Here's the six-year tenure of Manny Ramirez. 110 homers the first three years, 113 the last. 336 RBI the first three years, 376 RBI the last. Batting average over .300 five times, and on base percentage and slugging percentage (right of chart) always around .400 and .600. And, oh yes, there's the matter of protecting David Ortiz and the relative lack of protection that he gets. Yes, Manny can get 'squirrelly' at times (flaky bad players simply get released), and defensively he's not Yaz, but I'd rather have him out there than Mike Greenwell any day. Does he run out every grounder like his pants are on fire? No. He must have really set a terrible example for Hanley Ramirez, as he really underachieved for Florida. No, maybe it was Anibal Sanchez then. Yeah, Sanchez only batted .114 for the Marlins. Does Manny set a wonderful example for all of his teammates? Maybe not. I don't really care if underachieving, overpaid guys gripe because they aren't happy w...

Bill Haselman will not return as the Red Sox first base coach. Dave Magadan replaces 'Papa Jack' as Red Sox hitting coach. What does it all mean? I doubt that even the most ardent fan could name five current major league first base coaches. Terrific coaches can help a team in many ways, from scouting, to honing fielding or baserunning skills, and probably some serve as liaisons between players and managers who are not on the same page. But what does that mean in terms of 'Win Shares' as it were? If given the choice between great talent and great coaching at the major league level, I'd take the talent any day. The Cardinals' win this year rehabilitated Tony LaRussa's image. LaRussa has a career managerial winning percentage of .536. Is this good or bad? If you have the opportunity to manage the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, and so on, the (financial) royalty of major league baseball, shouldn't you be expected to deliver a high winning perc...

The Internet provides a sense of anonymity, and a forum for many types on uncivil discourse. I value articulate opinions of why players rate where they rate. Derek Jeter is one of the leading MVP candidates of the league, a proven winner, considered a 'clutch' player by many who believe the 'clutch' performer argument, and handsomely paid by his employer. Should he win the MVP, I would be the first to congratulate him on his merits. As for declaring him the best defensive shortstop of either this season or his era, the facts simply do not support that argument. Is Jeter a better player than other possible choices, such as Alex Gonzalez? Certainly, he is. And will Jeter enjoy having the Rawlings Gold Glove on his mantle? Undoubtedly. But like Olympic judging, he has won the award this year on subjective not objective merit. However often his fans launch expletives and insults to this observer, I will defend their right to their opinion, and simply point out that "fa...

WEEI reported that the Red Sox, despite leading the league in defense, have no Gold Glovers. And ESPN confirms that with Derek Jeter getting the hardware at shortstop and Eric Chavez at third base. Let's examine whether this became a political hack job, using the yardsticks we have, range factor, fielding percentage, win shares, and so forth. Shortstop Derek Jeter has the Nomaresque talent of making the easy play look sensational, while Alex Gonzalez makes the exceptional play look easy. Jeter had 4.6 Win Shares (the Bill James rating system) compared with Gonzalez 5.9. Notable in that Gonzalez played fewer games. Jeter had a fielding percentage of .975 (compared with the league average of .970), a range factor of 3.97 (league average 4.02), and participated in 81 double plays, starting 149 games. Gonzalez had a fielding percentage of .985, a range factor of 4.22, and 68 double plays, starting 110 games. So Gonzalez had a better fielding percentage, range factor, and more double pl...

What are your most vivid Fenway memories? I don't necessarily mean the best ones, just memories etched upon your consciousness...good or bad. 1. Much like Fever Pitch, that first walk up the ramp to see the resplendent verdant field, can never be forgotten. 2. "Loop towards shortstop . Petrocelli 's back, he's got it, and the Red Sox win it! And there is pandemonium on the field...Listen!" -- Ned Martin's call of the final out of the 1967 Boston Red Sox "Impossible Dream" regular season (station was WHDH AM 850) I remember jumping around my parents' front yard deliriously after the Sox won. More than anything else, that season put the Red Sox on the map. 3. I attended a game against the Angels (I think) in the 60's, and during a rain delay, a groundskeeper keeled over (? heart attack) while running out the tarpaulin. "Baseball isn't a matter of life and death, it's a lot more important than that." Not that night. 4. Reggie ...