Sunday, February 11, 2007

Preseason Predictions

Preplaying the 2007 has special hazards today, with a tremendous amount of unpredictability for computer baseball enthusiasts. Last year's prediction using Diamond Mind were pretty good.

Fan Graphs has individual projections with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz among the majors' top 5 leading offensive players (by OPS), and disappointingly, J.D. Drew is not among the top 50. Okay, so it's only a computer projection. And another computer projection ranks Drew in the top 20,

Of course, the reliability of projections is more than suspect. Pedro Martinez projects to win 15 games, and isn't likely to get 15 starts coming off shoulder surgery. Daisuke Matsuzaka projects to a 15-8 season with 3.44 ERA.

For baseball starved readers, the Hardball Times always provokes some interest, and Baseball Prospectus (subscription) never stops giving.

Aside from the Matsuzaka circus (and it will be one), I'm watching for the Lugo Effect and the Schilling 'shilling' impact on Spring Training.


Anonymous said...

Agree on the Lugo effect and Schilling . Lugo will be a tremendous asset, and i look for Schilling to be a 20 game winner .
Looking for Helton yet, what a line-up!!!!!!! The pitching will be solid,Manny a MVP season

Anonymous said...

Im going to have to agree with the quote, "the dice-k circus". I honestly thought that the sox were paying these big bucks for a pitcher that was the best of the best. Now don't get me wrong I am a huge sox fan and I like Dice K, but I was not impressed with his overall season performance. Some games he pitched amazing games and other games not so much he kinda sucked. I was reading up on the chinese game of baseball and it is totally different they pitch less innings per game and the coaches make them pitch 100 pitches per day to keep themselves in shape. When he came to the US here in baseball a starter is expected to play at least till the 6 inning if not the 7th and to pitch 100 pitches per day would ruin is arm. The coaches tried to break him of his routine but obviously were unsuccessful because he didn't last long and his game was lets just say not a 100% from me.