Sunday, December 02, 2007

Is Ellsbury Untouchable?

According to Buster Olney of, Jacoby Ellsbury is now in the Santana trade offer. Obviously, we cannot know whether this is credible or not.

I'd argue that Ellsbury MIGHT be a perennial all-star and everyday player, who has more value than a pitcher even of Santana's stature. Ellsbury's six win shares in just 33 games whetted the appetite of Sox fans, as well as the momentum shift that he provided in the post season after replacing Coco Crisp.

I've already shown what the economic cost is likely to be for the Yankees should they sign Santana. They've already overspent this winter (Posada 15M/yr, A-Rod ~30M/yr, Rivera 15M/yr) and likely will have another 16M for Pettitte as well as the Jeter 17M, Abreu 16M, Damon 13M, and so on. In other words, they're spending like drunken sailors in the global Arms Race with the Red Sox. Not even counting a possible Santana acquisition that alone was 122 Million not counting the money they squandered on Roger Clemens.

I've also shown that the premier pitchers of our age averaged 13-17 wins per year during the age 29-34. Is that something for which the Sox should trade away talent in bulk, with a smile?

Sure, there are other possibilities...that Santana will come more cheaply, that the Sox are playing high stakes poker, or that Theo and the Trio (Henry, Werner, Lucchino) have simply lost their minds. The Yankees, not the Sox must deal from desperation, and I see only two obvious winners in this deal, the Twins and Santana himself.

1 comment:

Mark Lesses said...

Its impossible to know what goes on behind closed doors with Theo & Co. I would be truly disappointed if Jacoby was traded. It seems that a player with the energy, presence and the ability to have such a strong, deep impact in a game comes along rarely. Ellsbury has the tools to play in Boston in a way that we haven't seen for some time. It would be a shame to trade that away when the Sox are stocked with other prospects that the Twins may be able to use. There are many variables that any team juggles when making these decisions lets hope the smartest guys in the room are with the Red Sox. MFL