Red Sox Reality Check

The Sox host the Bombers Sunday as the Yankees defend their championship, their first since the Red Sox rattled off a pair. While the Red Sox rotation has achieved much renown, the Yankees aren't exactly chopped liver, countering with C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez, and Phil Hughes. Here's a comparison with some key statistics, the least reproducible of which is win-loss record, so dependent on run support and bullpen support. One argument says that the Red Sox may have the slight edge at the top of the rotation and the Yankees at the bottom. Obviously, Javier Vazquez's numbers come from the NL, so they won't be as good in the AL. The Yankees have studs at almost every position, with likely Hall-of-Famers at both hot corners in A-Rod and Teixeira, and shortstop Derek Jeter. Robinson Cano has great tools and put up big numbers including 25 homers, .320/.352/.520 compared to Pedroia's .296/.371/.447. Jorge Posada has a chance to be a ...

The Orioles had a rotation with four twenty game winners in one season. But that was about a million years ago. You have a better chance to see a Tyrannosaurus Rex in your back yard than an Oriole 20 game winner this season. Which is not to say that the Orioles have no hope. They've improved and winning 70 games would be a monumental task for them.  They have a few decent sticks, with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold in the outfield, Luke Scott at DH, and Brian Roberts at second. Roberts can't swipe fifty bags anymore, but he's more than competent. Newcomers Garrett Atkins and second time around Miggy Tejada could be an improvement over Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora, but that's not saying much. Cesar Izturis at short is limited offensively. The big hope for the Orioles is that second year catcher Matt Wieters will start showing some of the offensive potential that yielded an 852 OPS in September. Adam Jones won a Gold Glove and Nick Markakis has one of the...

Uber-prospect Casey Kelly gets some trial by fire tomorrow against the Rays. Tampa has a very potent line up (discussed yesterday) and the appearance will give the brass a chance to see the 20 year-old against Grade A competition. The Sox still have some decisions to make, the biggest being how to fill out the bullpen. The candidates for a couple of spots include some greybeards, ranging from southpaws Embree and Schoeneweis to righthanders Nelson and Atchison. You wonder sometime how they make these decisions, and needless to say, they don't always work out. Mike Lowell gets some showcasing tonight at third base as the Sox try to cut their losses with the third baseman coming off hand surgery, hip woes, and knee pain. Lowell's first at bat resulted in a ringing single to right. Unfortunately, Jason Varitek followed with a swing where his bat seems to drag through the hitting zone. At this point, Varitek's contribution will probably be some combination of action against...

Maybe it's time to start thinking about the competition. And there is plenty. While even those afflicted with the luck of Rip Van Winkle recognize the Yankees, fewer may hold Tampa Bay in anything approaching equally high regard. Last season's "mean reversion" and bullpen breakdown relegated Tampa to mediocrity, but I'm not sure that Sox fans can rely on that happening in 2010. The Rays' initials TBA (to be announced?) sums up where they are. At the catching position, Dioner Navarro's performance fell off the cliff, which probably won't recur. What Ray had at least 30 homers and 100 RBI for the past three seasons? That would be Northeastern's Carlos Pena. His OPS exceeded even that of what could be baseball's best young player, Evan Longoria. And yet, at the middle infield positions the Rays have Jason Bartlett, Red Sox killer, and the underappreciated Ben Zobrist who finished 7th in the AL in OPS while cranking 27 homers from second base A...

As the baseball season approaches, what critical questions must we ask? Do the Red Sox sign Josh Beckett to an extension before the season starts? If calling a game is so difficult, then why aren't there multimillion dollar pitching coaches getting paid to do it? Can it really be true that Jason Varitek hit .134 in 28 games started after the acquisition of V-Mart? Or that the Captain threw out 13 percent of runners last season (MLB average 25 percent)? Or that Varitek had a three-year minus rating in "The Fielding Bible"? How much power does Bill James have in the Sox organization? After all, he really IS part of the sabermetric brain trust. Has Adrian Beltre converted to the true believers (in wearing a cup) after last season's injury? That's a sore subject... Name the three players who won Rookie of the Year and the MVP the next season? Cal Ripken, Ryan Howard, and yup...Dustin Pedroia. Does Scott Schoeneweis or Alan Embree really have the inside tra...

Baseball-reference.com has a great feature called similarity scores, where it finds 'similar players' in baseball history to a chosen player. So let's propose a 'hypothetical' similarity lineup with the Sox player and a similarity 'shadow. C Victor Martinez   Joe Mauer (really) 1B Kevin Youkilis  Adrian Gonzalez (yeah) 2B Dustin Pedroia  Aaron Hill SS Marco Scutaro  Pokey Reese 3B Adrian Beltre  Mike Lowell (meet the new boss, same as the old boss) LF Jacoby Ellsbury  Denard Span (and the Twins wanted Ells) CF Mike Cameron  Tom Brunansky (end of the season catch fame) RF J.D. Drew Carl Everett (not in temperament) DH David Ortiz  Mo Vaughn (who woulda thought) P  Josh Beckett  John Lackey (number 1 on sim score!) P Jon Lester  Daisuke Matsuzaka (doesn't look Japanese) P Jon Lackey  A.J. Burnett (is what it is) P Jonathan Papelbon  Takashi Saito (why can't we get players like that) The point? Sometimes our "...

The Red Sox acquired Scott Schoeneweis as a possible second LOOGY (lefty out of the bullpen guy). Schoeneweis has enjoyed some success at Fenway Park, but whether the sample size suffices to predict future success merits discussion. First, the Red Sox brain trust believes that strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) predicts future ERA better than even prior ERA. This makes some sense as it usually reflects the intersection of power and command. Trends in K/BB often have great meaning. For example in 2008 Jon Lester had a 3.21 ERA with 152 K, 66 BB in 210 innings. Last season Lester had a 3.41 ERA with 225 K, 64 BB in 203 innings. So what? Look inside the numbers...before the All-Star game he had a 3.87 ERA and after 2.82. In other words, the K/BB ratio predicted future improvement. The fact that Lester allowed only 7 homers after the break and 13 before also may have played a role. Let's look at Schoeneweis*. In the past three seasons (139 innings), Schoeneweis has 89 K, 64 BB (a ratio...

The Red Sox did a bunch on the way to Opening Night showdown with the Bombers, adding reserve infielder Kevin Frandsen and "Sporty Spice" Scott Schoeneweis. Frandsen, looking at the data , looks to be the classic "good field, no-hit" infielder. Schoeneweis , who has an awful strikeout to walk ratio that the Sox seem to prize when good, and a similarity score to Mike Kekich, the infamous wife swapping pitcher. On the seismic scale, this would probably rate just above a hiccup. The Red Sox announced their opening rotation, with the Beckett, Lester, Lackey troika, to be follow by the venerable Wakefield, then back to Beckett and then Buchholz. I presume the Yankees will counter early with Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. The Frandsen acquisition may not bode well for Tug Hulett, although who can say? How much do spring stats mean? Not a lot for Brian Shouse. The bullpen battle continues to shape up, with the locks : Papelbon Okajima Bard Ramirez the likely ...

As Spring Training winds down, there aren't so many questions, but we can examine them, such as they are. Who gets the final bullpen spot? Who gets the final position player spot? Is David Ortiz back? How long will Daisuke Matsuzaka need to catch up? Will the Josh Beckett extension get done prior to the conclusion of Spring Training? The most important question is whether Ryan Westmoreland can resume a normal life...one that Sox fans extend their prayers to the young man. Final bullpen spot . Organizations and managers always want to have that second option against left-handers. Presumably that gives Alan Embree a left leg up on the competition. Is that 'fair' to Scott Atchison? Fairness doesn't have a lot to do with MLB roster decisions.  Final position player spot . The 'hidden agenda' there is the fate of Mike Lowell. Will Lowell accept a diminished role and contribute to a harmonious clubhouse? Papi Tao . A rejuvenated Ortiz would go a long way to...

If we look at what the Red Sox did in the offseason, it gives an easy understanding of what problems existed. First, the Red Sox were third in runs scored (the ultimate offensive stat) and second in OPS. Admittedly, losing Jason Bay has to be made up somewhere, but they could theoretically get more offense at catcher, second, short, and DH, so offensively it could be more of a wash.  The Red Sox were seventh in ERA and eleventh in ERA after the All-star break (4.70) and eighth (4.64) on the road. It didn't feel as though it was quite that pitiful, but that's why stats are so revealing. Teams are placing greater emphasis on defense , particularly the Red Sox. This excerpt:  "For Boston last year at third base, for example, Mike Lowell, who was unable to move well because of injury, cost them 20 runs, and now they have Adrian Beltre, and he added about 20 runs," Dewan explains. "Right there, the Red Sox have added four wins. Plus they've added three wi...

New marketing campaign .

How much should we care about Spring Training? I've never been to Spring Training (at least since I was a college player), although my son went to Arizona for Spring Training this year and had a great time. I can think of plenty that I'd like to see at Fort Myers... The word is that Victor Martinez is working hard on his footwork and shifting, the precurson to effective throwing. The Varitek-Martinez combination was beyond futile at catching runners last season. Casey Kelly. Let's hope for a man-child to help lead us to the Promised Land. David Ortiz. May he find the Fountain of Youth. The double-play combination of Pedroia and Scutaro...not to dismiss Jed Lowrie, but he seems star-crossed by illness and injury, and the looming Jose Iglesias. The youngsters...like Jason Place and Lars Anderson. Prospects or suspects. Everyone raves at the defense of AB (Adrian Beltre). Chicks dig the long ball...does the ball jump off his bat? The outfield defense of Ellsbury, Ca...

I really don't spend so much thinking about the Red Sox, but last night I woke up in a sweat over a nightmare that the Sox had traded Clay Buchholz for a 32 year-old right-hander Dan Versant from the Padres. I don't think any such guy even exists, and I couldn't imagine why the Sox would be trading Buchholz for some (imaginary) guy nobody ever heard of. Speak of the devil, Buchholz pitched four scoreless innings against some minor leaguers today. Better than getting lit up. The 'obvious' question is whether the Sox have enough offense to complement what is expected to be a solid 'run prevention' team. Predictionmachine.com likes the Sox' chances of winning the Series in 2010 .

I won't even pretend for a second to be an objective observer of Major League Baseball. Yes, I root for laundry...and that means the Red Sox whites. I don't have anything against kelly green Sox hats, the 'pink hats', or even the silly hats with the red socks on them. But I digress. What are others saying and projecting for the AL East in 2010? Shockingly, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox to win the division , with the World Champion Yankees third, and scoring only 845 runs. I doubt the Yankees will be third, and I'd sure like the 'over' on the 845 runs. Cappers Picks Blog picks the Yankees first and the Sox second, and gives very long odds on either the Orioles or the Blue Jays. Very long. Doc's Sports Service ranks the Red Sox and Yankees on par, projecting the over-under for each team at 94.5 wins. Half a win? Anyway, they make note of the Yankees' dramatic outperformance of the Pythagorean relationship (square of runs scored and...

The Yankees' spending spree last season (almost half a billion dollars) on the triumvirate of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira bought them a World Series. The Red Sox haven't gone the cheap route trying to compensate, going long with John Lackey and deep in negotiations with Josh Beckett. The Boston Globe today suggested that they are a dark horse in the Joe Mauer sweepstakes if he doesn't sign with the Twins. Frankly, he belongs with the Twins. ESPN Boston had a terrific article with Mike Andrews about his website, Soxprospects.com and the strength of the Sox farm system. Andrews had the general consensus on Casey Kelly, and plenty of good information about the depth the Sox have accumulated at multiple levels. The Sox continued their battle for the Polk County championship today with a win over the Twins, although Twins' starter Kevin Slowey shut them down early. The Sox reassigned numerous players to the minor league camp, including shortstop ...

Spring training provides plenty of opportunities for players to prepare for the annual marathon, although pitchers need the longest preparation. Based on any logic, who's in and who's on the bubble? Catchers (2) Victor Martinez Jason Varitek DH (1) David Ortiz Infielders (6) Kevin Youkilis Dustin Pedroia Marco Scutaro Adrian Beltre Mike Lowell* Bill Hall Outfielders (4) Mike Cameron J.D. Drew Jacoby Ellsbury Jeremy Hermida Starters (6) Josh Beckett Jon Lester John Lackey Clay Buchholz Tim Wakefield Daisuke Matsuzaka Bullpen (6) Jonathan Papelbon Hideki Okajima Daniel Bard Ramon Martinez Manny Delcarmen Boof Bonser Obviously Mike Lowell's eventual destination determines another roster spot. The inevitable hamstring pull for an outfielder (e.g. Drew/Cameron) means the Pawtaxi Sox have a big role. A significant trade before the season can always happen, but probably isn't happening. On the bubble...likely to be part of the ro...

Where does one begin when discussing baseball? Oddly enough, perhaps the Jim Bouton opus magnum, Ball Four is the starting point. Bouton's work exposed the clubhouse and its denizens as frequently immature men playing a boys' game. He concludes however, with the observation that you spend your life with a grip on the ball, when really it's the other way around. And so it is with being a fan, locked in a grip of men whom you know intimately but really not so well. Those whom we thought we knew well, sometimes turned out to be mere mortals, losing easy temptation to alcohol, hard medicine, and soft women. But  spring brings renewal, and so the Red Sox launch this decade with a new emphasis on the skill set of run prevention, rather than their 'atavistic' approach of the three run homer. We expect the trio of Beckett, Lester, and Lackey to put up fifty wins...and the best 'raw stuff' on the staff might belong to the youngster of the group, Clay Buchholz,...