Red Sox Reality Check

See the real A-Rod on You Tube . You be the judge. He coughed, he sneezed, he said 'money' or how about 'MINE'?

Can there be a single Pollyanna left among Bomberdom? On the other hand, let's step back and ask a couple of questions... What percentage of US marriages end in divorce ? 43 percent. What percentage of men have been to a strip club? Who knows, but I doubt that the six-foot rule is dissuading the crowd. Baseball teams employ large numbers of obscenely wealthy young men who spend half their season on the road. Because libraries and museums are closed after night games, I'm sure that baseball players frequent other late night entertainment venues. How is A-Rod different from the rest of them? He got "busted". We open the morning newspaper to see Lindsay Lohan or other celebrities variously impaired, and professional athletes make attractive targets, too. Charles Barkley reminded us, "I am not a role model." A-Rod seems content with a simple, "no comment." Red Sox Roundup . Whatever became of Wendell 'Send Him In" Kim and Dale "Sveum...

Psychology plays a big role in how we view players. Endowment bias allows us to 'love' OUR players, not just date them. And so we celebrate Trot Nixon's return to Boston...Trot, an original dirt dog, with his disgusting hat and tarred helmet. His bases clearing double against Jason Marquis in Game 4 of the 2004 series stands immortalized...a part of the Championship Season The ninth inning homer off Clemens in the Sunday Night Baseball game in the Bronx. Flipping the ball into the right field stands with two outs, allowing the runner on second to score (gawd forbid Manny ever did that) I heard a story on the radio one day about rookie Trot hitting a triple in a meaningless late season game at Baltimore, after he fouled out to Ripken earlier on a tough play. Trot supposedly says to Ripken, "Ah'm so nervous, and mah families here watching me." To which Ripken replies, "you should've told me earlier, I could have dropped the popup." Who's better...

Texas has always symbolized bitter memories from November 22, 1963. But from a baseball perspective, Texas means heat, brutal summers that destroy pitching staffs, and usual departures with Bostonians with their tails between their legs. But with Hank Blalock out and Sammy Sosa a shell of his former self, the Texas Rangers indeed ioccupy the Lone Star state, that lone star being Mark Teixeira. And Teixeira did plenty of damage with four RBI including a titanic home run. But, in a place that has traditionally meant nightmares, the Sox stretched their division lead over the Bombers to an unthinkable 12 1/2 games. Kevin Youkilis continued his terrific baseball with his seventh consecutive multihit game. Fourth in the AL in average, Youkilis remains 6th in runs scored, 5th in on base percentage, 6th in OPS, 5th in runs created, and 4th in runs created per 27 outs. Dustin Pedroia affords me yet another session of crow-eating, as his swing-from-the-heels approach delivered a key ninth inning...

"Statistics are for losers." As we approach the one-third mark in the 2007 baseball season, we have to be disappointed with J.D. Drew . Just as Mark Belanger a brilliant defender and banjo hitter once hit .287, so solid hitters have had disastrous seasons. Drew at .230/.341/.320/.661 isn't having a dollar-adjusted disaster, he's just struggled almost beyond belief. Drew's career numbers .284/.391/.504/.895 absolutely dwarf his 2007 numbers. Injury? Pressure? Statistical curiosity? Who are the Sox' top 5 career hitters and what was their worst season? Ted Williams, .344, hit .254 in about half a season worth of at bats at age 40 Wade Boggs .338, hit .259 in 1992 Tris Speaker .337, hit .296 in 1919 when on the Indians Nomar Garciaparra .328 (career .317) hit .283 in a shortened season for him in 2005 Jimmie Foxx .320, hit .226 in 1942 in an at-bat limited season at age 34 So, given this point in the season, and with the comfort of solid overall team play, let...

For 2007 Curt Schilling has a 3.94 ERA and is 4 and 2. His last four starts have yielded 37 hits in 24 innings, with 20 strikeouts, 8 walks and 14 earned runs. In other words his four start ERA is 5.19. Schilling has been a terrific pitcher for a long time, and the Sox have won 7 of his 10 starts. Of all the above numbers, the one that worries me the most is the H/IP ratio, which has recently ballooned. Is Schilling hurt?

The Red Sox continued their series at the House That Ruth Built, led by Birthday Boy Julian Tavarez (34). Of course, one wonders what that translates to into 'real' years. Tavarez buddy Manny Ramirez hammered a three-run tater off New York starter and loser Mike Mussina, who is trying to pitch without a fastball. The game had its share of 'events'... Mike Lowell hit the fair pole with his 9th home run...two more than Manny Hideki Okajima was scored upon for the first time since Opening Day. The Okey-Dokey wasn't finding the zone, and he couldn't throw the curve near the plate Coco Crisp beat out an almost certain DP, and stole second, keying the Sox three run rally that put the game into Cigar Mode Jonathan Papelbon walked the first two hitters he faced...but got a pair of strikeouts, including Derek Jeter to end the game A-Fraud took out Pedroia at second, with a 'slide' which departed from second base. The Bomber fans will salute the Fraud's hard-n...

The other Jason, one of the premier trivia questions of all time, what is Jason's last name (VOORHEES), can't be killed. Are the Yankees Jason? I can't help but borrow this quote from a Wonkette blogger, "My mother always told me to speak good of the dead. The Yankees are dead. Good." Despite their inability to win a championship for what seems like an eternity to New Yorkers, the Yankees have a formidable lineup. What does that mean for a playoff berth, at least from a probability standpoint? Baseball Prospectus has their Monte Carlo simulator including the odds of making the playoffs. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the Red Sox check in with a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs, and the Bombers are at 16 percent, just below the Baltimore Orioles and the Seattle Mariners. But as Mark Twain might say, "there are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics." BP reminds us that they run their simulation 1 mil...

Dear Jason, Thank you for your wonderful insight into the politics of sports and medicine, or rather the use of performance-enhancing drugs...or your use of performance enhancing drugs. Although publicly you denied being a steroid user, you subsequently testified to the grand jury that you were a drug abuser . Not only did you betray the trust of your admirers and baseball fans by using steroids, you forfeited whatever credibility you had by lying about it. You tell us that steroids never helped you in baseball. Your first three full seasons (502 plate appearances) you averaged 22 home runs. Your peak season you hit almost twice as many. That's at odds with historical baseball performance, quite different from the likes of the Mantles, Mays, and Aarons. But evidently, there was something different about you and many of your peers. Mantle hit 37 in his third full season (peak 54), Mays hit 41 homers in his third full season (peak 52), Aaron 41 in his third full season (peak 45). Bu...

What separates outstanding from lesser pitchers went on display Thursday night at Fenway Park. Curt Schilling didn't have his best velocity or command, yet merits respect for turning lemons into lemonade. For every ten starts, there will be a distribution of 'stuff' and results according to many factors. Wins and losses come not solely from the physical ability (brawn) but also from the pitching acumen (brains), and of course, run support. The best pitchers have the greatest skew distribution of high-level performance but also can keep the team either in the game or winning with something less. Think back to your lifetime baseball observational experience. You have Clemens, Martinez, and Maddox who won first of all because they had a high percentage of games with quality stuff. If you're an old-timer like me, you grew up watching Koufax, Marichal, and Gibson with similar qualities. But you also had pitchers like Jack McDowell , Jack Morris , and Dave Stieb who compiled ...

The Red Sox success this season hasn't come from any mysterious brew. Although they do lead the AL in runs scored (205-200 over the New Yorkers, the Sox having played an extra game), the answer is simply pitching. The Red Sox have never, except perhaps during an eight game stretch in the 2004 playoffs, had starting pitching this consistent. And that can change in a heartbeat, or maybe the tear of Josh Beckett's finger. Last night the Sox needed someone to step up and give the bullpen a breather, and doryoku occurred, Daisuke Matsuzaka delivered a complete game, seen about as often as black swans at Fenway. The Sox are second in ERA (3.21) in the AL (in a smaller ballpark than Oakland's mausoleum), are fourth in quality starts with 22 (the Angels lead with 25), have the league's lowest OPS against (.648), the second highest K/BB ratio (2.4) which predicts future ERA, and are tied for the fewest blown saves (2). We haven't yet reached the quarter pole, and the Sox ha...

Baseball America passes the Buck .

Only the most aggrieved, self-indulgent Red Sox fan can complain about the team at this juncture. They have the second best record in baseball (after the Brewers, who would have guessed) and have done it with the incredible assistance of a Japanese pitcher (Okajima) and without premium performances from the high-priced spread (Drew, Matsuzaka, Lugo, Ramirez). Among the surprises are the combined 18 stolen bases from Lugo and Crisp, the metamorphosis of Josh Beckett who had embodied the Ray Millerian 'wisdom triad' (throw strikes, change speeds, work fast), and outperformance from the corners (Youkilis and Lowell). The epistemic solution for the Red Sox hasn't been to spend far more dollars (they have), but the simple reliance on one of baseball's infallible truths: performance fluctuates. Players who struggled via injury or underachievement last year (e.g. Wakefield, Varitek) are playing better. We tend to 'credit' or vilify management or field direction (Franco...

Red Sox fans haven't had a lot to complain about so far this year. The pitching staff has delivered 20 quality starts, the bullpen has shown surprising effectiveness almost front to back, and the offense has been good enough to open up a sizable early-season lead. This week brought its own revelations or reinforcements of prior beliefs. Know yourself . Daisuke Matsuzaka's performance against the Blue Jays gave fans and MORE IMPORTANTLY Matsuzaka, an injection of self-confidence. Matsuzaka made quality pitches in key situations - the running fastball in to Vernon Wells in particular and the cutter down and away. From a technical standpoint, his release point seemed more consistent and he dropped his elbow less frequently, allowing him to keep the ball down. If it ain't broke, don't fix it . If it is, get surgery. Roy Halladay looked WRONG on Thursday, lacking the fluid delivery characteristic of elite pitchers. From just watching warmups, a casual observer could notice ...

Roger, meet Will Hunting, erstwhile mathematics genius. "The Yankees agree to pay you 28 million, over about two-thirds of the season...18 million, give or take. The Red Sox offer 18 million prorated over half the season, nine million. Eighteen minus nine, that would be nine million dollars a year." Now we know that you have a lot of mouths to feed, although some of the K clan are playing on the road. But nine million dollars will feed the average family of four, for let's say, five hundred years. But then it's about respect. The Nobel Prize is worth 10 million kronor these days, but I'd guess that might be more about respect than money. The Cy Young for a young guy like Johan Santana would surely be worth 10 million extra large US, but also worth some respect. Today the Yankee fans amidst us were crowing about how 'upset' the Red Sox were at not landing Clemens. I had trouble sleeping last night, but it might have been a stiff back. I'm sure John Henr...

McDonough's "Texas Con Man", Roger Clemens, found over 18 million reasons to declare his loyalty to the Yankees, signing on for another stint in the Big Apple. Injuries to Wang, Mussina, Karstens, Pavano (what else is new?), and Hughes have decimated the Bombers' staff. But cash has brought Clemens back into the fold. The Sox evidently came in a distant second to the Yankees on this bid. Meanwhile, the Yankees inherit the baggage that inevitably comes with a soon-to-be 45 year-old righthander. The hamstring and quad pulls that have limited Clemens in the past loom even more concerning at this age. Of course, the friendship between Andy Pettitte and Clemens (and the formidable run support available in New York) proved irresistable. As for the lure of 'home' and 'family', Clemens has traded those in the past for the dollars, so why change now? While Red Sox fans would have welcomed their All-Time victory leader (tied with Cy Young) back, I doubt that too...

Early in the season, Kevin Youkilis suggested that Sox fans were making judgments prematurely...in other words, based on too small a sample size. How much of a sample size is 'enough'? Statistics can be a tricky subject. To reach statistical significance for a given event not happening (at the 0.05 level), a ratio of 3/n is sometimes employed. In other words, if something doesn't happen in 100 tries, that would be 3/100 (.03) and would be 'statistically significant at the .05 level' that the event wasn't going to happen. That obviously doesn't mean it couldn't happen, and in baseball it seems that anything can happen. When the Tigers started the 1984 season (hope I'm right here) 35-5, it seemed inescapable that they were going to win their division. On the other hand, because Josh Beckett starts 6-0, I doubt that any sane Red Sox fan would predict 30 wins, as some New York fans projected for Randy Johnson in his first campaign with the Bombers. What ...

Cora! Cora! Cora! Who doesn't love to watch David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez bat? But I enjoy following Alex Cora's total game, his constant contributions...the ability to do the small things with every appearance. Tonight he had a sacrifice and then a triple. Sometimes it's a perfectly executed hit and run or a deke before throwing to an unexpected base. "A baseball player." Jacoby Ellsbury has already had a hit and scored two runs for the PawSox. Ellsbury's had two walks and a hit. I'm not saying he's going to Cooperstown or will ever play in a major league All-Star Game. But he is fun to watch and productive at the minor league level. Let's just hope that he comes with a better nickname than 'Chief' or some similar drivel. Another Sox pitching farmhand off to a strong start is Michael Bowden of the Lancaster JetHawks. Aside from having a great name, the team is off to a 16-12 start. Perusing Red Sox records reveals some unexpected facts....

With the Sox off to an electrifying 17-9 start, few fans look to criticize Terry Francona. And yet a baseball team wins and loses based on subtleties...a game of inches. The Sox lost Tuesday night (ancient history in baseball time), 5-4, with a rare bullpen collapse. Or did less obvious contributions, or lack thereof, cost a victory? First, our baseball fanaticism compels us to microanalyze each victory and defeat...the football mentality of 'what if?'. How was last night's game different. J.D. Drew returned to the lineup? Drew has struggled lately, but added an RBI. But Alex Cora returned to second base and had two RBI, and continued his steady, heady, winning play. Player A .172 .294 .224 .518 (AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS) Player B .345 .406 .724 1.130 Cora hasn't had many at bats (29), but has scored one more run than Pedroia (player A) and has nine RBI compared with Pedroia's two. The Sox embody 'Moneyball', so we know that Terry Francona comes to the ball...