Santana and The Winners Curse
If you must have Santana, here he is.
The most valued commodity in baseball is low-salaried talent under your control, an approach that allows you to overspend for other areas of weakness. The Red Sox, the most successful of the Moneyball teams, clearly understand this. Spending money to make a splash guarantees nothing, and you may just lock yourself into both bad contracts and bad chemistry.
Among the Red Sox high value, low cost contracts include:
Established players carry higher price tags for past production, and expected production at similar levels to the past. For example, with Mike Lowell, is he more likely to hit .320 with 25 homers and 120 RBI, or hit .290 with 20 homers and 90 RBI? I'd argue the latter, although quite content with the Lowell signing.
Most competitors underestimate the importance of The Winner's Curse. You can go the following website and experiment with a variety of applications.
Johan Santana, winner of a pair of Cy Young Awards, has a career on a trajectory to become a Hall of Famer. Rumor is that he has already turned down over 18 million dollars a year to pitch for the Twins. Rumor also has it that the Twins seek as much as possible for Santana (three to four upper echelon prospects including a couple of major league ready players), for ONE YEAR guaranteed of Santana. Only the richest clubs can afford to bid with both prospects and dollars, and the accompanying luxury tax considerations for some teams. Negotiating an extension would clearly be a precursor for any team willing to part with so many prospects.
We already know that no team has won the World Series with one player's salary dominating their payroll beyond a certain amount. Even with Santana's positive health history, no guarantees exist, expressed or implied that this will continue. His proven track record in the AL means a lot.
The Red Sox projected starting rotation for 2008 includes:
To an extent, what transpires represents philosophy. I'd be inclined to continue the developmental pitching track, and try to avoid suffering the Winners Curse. Last year the Yankees suffered the Winners Curse with their abysmal Clemens bargain. Whether A-Rod and Mariano Rivera will continue that faux pas remains to be seen.
Whatever the Sox choose to do, I hope they educate themselves in the Winners Curse.
The most valued commodity in baseball is low-salaried talent under your control, an approach that allows you to overspend for other areas of weakness. The Red Sox, the most successful of the Moneyball teams, clearly understand this. Spending money to make a splash guarantees nothing, and you may just lock yourself into both bad contracts and bad chemistry.
Among the Red Sox high value, low cost contracts include:
- Kevin Youkilis
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Dustin Pedroia
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Jon Lester
- Clay Buchholz
Established players carry higher price tags for past production, and expected production at similar levels to the past. For example, with Mike Lowell, is he more likely to hit .320 with 25 homers and 120 RBI, or hit .290 with 20 homers and 90 RBI? I'd argue the latter, although quite content with the Lowell signing.
Most competitors underestimate the importance of The Winner's Curse. You can go the following website and experiment with a variety of applications.
Johan Santana, winner of a pair of Cy Young Awards, has a career on a trajectory to become a Hall of Famer. Rumor is that he has already turned down over 18 million dollars a year to pitch for the Twins. Rumor also has it that the Twins seek as much as possible for Santana (three to four upper echelon prospects including a couple of major league ready players), for ONE YEAR guaranteed of Santana. Only the richest clubs can afford to bid with both prospects and dollars, and the accompanying luxury tax considerations for some teams. Negotiating an extension would clearly be a precursor for any team willing to part with so many prospects.
We already know that no team has won the World Series with one player's salary dominating their payroll beyond a certain amount. Even with Santana's positive health history, no guarantees exist, expressed or implied that this will continue. His proven track record in the AL means a lot.
The Red Sox projected starting rotation for 2008 includes:
- Josh Beckett (arguably the post-season MVP)
- Daisuke Matsuzaka (seeking to meet higher standards)
- Curt Schilling (twilight season)
- Jon Lester (seeking breakout season)
- Clay Buchholz (projected as a possible number one starter)
- Tim Wakefield (possibly part of a rotation designed to allow more rest for the entire staff)
To an extent, what transpires represents philosophy. I'd be inclined to continue the developmental pitching track, and try to avoid suffering the Winners Curse. Last year the Yankees suffered the Winners Curse with their abysmal Clemens bargain. Whether A-Rod and Mariano Rivera will continue that faux pas remains to be seen.
Whatever the Sox choose to do, I hope they educate themselves in the Winners Curse.
Comments
Getting Santana entails risk (what happens if he goes Zito/gets badly injured?).
Not getting Santana entails risk (what if our young guys never amount to much & Santana wins 25 for NYY?).
I don't know the right answer. My gut tells me I'd rather see the Sox rely on the home-grown young guys, but there's a reason why my gut isn't the Red Sox GM!
If our 2008 lineup was Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Matsusaka, and ??
, you could practically start printing the WS tickets now.
Obviously a huge douche bag. Never mind 'your'. "Buying proven major leaguers will get you nowhere." WTF do you call Curt Schilling? Or Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Keith Foulke, etc.? Without them your ass probably wouldn't know a baseball from a skidmark. The Yankees have been giving extra cream to dudes way past their prime. Santana is 28. Jackass. Scouting young talent is essential to the development of teams, but that cheap talent alone does not in and of itself make champions.
Pavano and PTBNL for Pedro Martinez
Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, + 2 Minor Leaguers for Curt Schilling
Annibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, + 1 for Beckett + Lowell.
Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, Bowden for Johan Santana
What is the difference?
There is enough talent in the farm teams to make any MLB team wish it were their Christmas. Obviously you have seen that this year!!
We are Red Sox..We are a team and strive to be the best but not at the cost of becoming like the Yankees!
"Crisp, Lester, Lowrie, Bowden for Johan Santana"
Delusional may be the right term for you if you truly think Santana is coming here for NO less then either Buchholz and/or Ellsbury.