Red Sox Reality Check

A colleague of mine (I'll call him Joe) had dinner the other evening with an individual from the Mets' organization. Joe loves to talk baseball and got a few opinions out of the Met representative. I'll list the significant ones and examine them. First, the Red Sox infield defense is overrated and they have limited range. They catch what they get to. Let's look at the range factor and zone ratings for them and where they stand and see whether an outsider's perspective is true. Range factor is the number of chances (putouts plus assists) times nine divided by the number of innings Played. "Zone Rating is the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive ‘zone’, as measured by STATS reporters." ----------------Range factor(rank)--------Zone rating(rank) Youkilis 9.46(8) .843(7) Loretta 4.67(8) .803(6) Gonzalez 3.95(11) .876(2) Jeter 10th...

The Sox have done it a lot of ways recently, but none sweeter than tonight, as the speed of Coco Crisp with a manufactured run, and a diving, sprawling catch by Crisp defeated the Mets 4-2. The Mets, advertised as the best of the NL, went home with their tails between their legs as the alpha males known as the Red Sox whacked them. Curt Schilling got the win after three no decisions, to earn his tenth win, and Mike Timlin and Jonathan Papelbon finished, the latter tying the Sox rookie save record, recording his 24th save before the All-Star break. The signature moment was the bottom of the seventh, when Crisp led off with a bunt single, stole second off Aaron Heilman, and moved to third on an Alex Gonzalez sacrifice. Kevin Youkilis, a notorious first ball watcher, then swung at the first pitch and delivered a sac fly into the left field corner. The Mets two runs in the top of the sixth came on Carlos Beltran's 22nd homer. The Sox now have won an even dozen in a row, the most since ...

Here's something that I wrote a couple of years ago for Barry Roos and the good folks over at www.uwritesports.com. I recall reading long ago in the Boston Globe, 'there is nothing cheaper than free advice, and there is nothing easier than spending someone else's money.' I'm not sure that Pedro Martinez was reading the paper that day. Pedro Martinez has been one of the most accomplished pitchers in Major League Baseball history. He has won three Cy Young awards, including having won one in each league. He has won twenty games twice, led the league in E.R.A. on 5 occasions, allowed the fewest hits per nine innings five times, and dominated the league in strikeouts on three occasions. He has also been handsomely paid for his labors, earning over 15 million dollars last season and over 17 million this year. His arrival launched the Red Sox into perennial bridesmaid status. Pedro moved on with much fanfare and didn't leave a dollar on the table. Having bee...

The Red Sox passed on the word that Peter Gammons suffered an intracranial hemorrhage (brain bleeding), presumably from an aneursym. All of Red Sox Nation wishes Peter to recover. I think it was in the Red Sox Reader that Gammons revealed that his father had given him a deathbed promise that the Sox would win in Peter's lifetime. Gammons has contributed immensely to baseball reporting, and for the most part done so bereft of the effete negativity so rampant in these parts. Great to see the 1986 Sox recognized for their achievements. It was an another 'close call' for the Sox. Oil Can looks as lean as ever, Bruce Hurst doesn't have a gray hair, and who can't wish that Dave Stapleton had been out there at first base at the end of Game 6. Young pitchers bring genius and its polar opposite - madness - to the game. Alay Soler had a forty plus pitch first with the Sox doing their strike zone control, and Jon Lester has alternately been brilliant and tentative tonight. Sol...

I was going to tell the story of Big Papi and the Beanstalk, but maybe we'll save that for another day. Philadelphia came to town with some pretty good talent, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Rowland, and Ryan Howard. They decided to play Monopoly with the Boston Red Sox, Fenway Style. Game 1 of the series was pretty much one of those contests when the Phillies just kept landing on 'Chance' and paying 15 dollars to the Red Sox for every house they own. And when you consider the money these guys make, that can set you back. Game 2, the Brett Myers game, was more complex, but Myers landed on the 'Go to Jail' square, had no get out of jail free card, and in fact, not only did not pass go, but had to pay 200 dollars to get out of jail. Big Papi pretty much ruined their day by constructing a hotel near Park Street station. Game 3 was even stranger. The Red Sox raced out and put houses all over the place, only to have a furious rally and tie th...

Sports as societal microcosm becomes a favorite theme. What constitutes cheating versus playing hard and within the rules? Let's look outside the lines first. The motivation behind cheating doesn't stretch the imagination- power, greed, or both. With electoral politics a driving force, politicians of both stripes have crossed the line, from phantom votes in Chicago's Cook County in 1960 to the voting machine issues and voter registration intimidation of the 2000 presidential election. Political strategists and handlers become more important than honesty and integrity. The massage outshines the message. The massive fraud seen on Wall Street from Enron to Worldcom has yielded to a new generation of malice - backdated options and yet more insider trading to enrich management at the expense of shareholders. Mine safety violations frequent the news. Comedians lament the 5 percent of honest lawyers who make the other 95% look bad. Medical researchers fabricate data and pharmaceut...

The sports world may be a microcosm of society, but first and foremost, college and professional sports are businesses. We can argue fashion and taste, but role models or not, team representatives from managers to players sell the product. Businesses want to sell as much product as they can, and garner as much market share as possible. No, you can't sell feminine hygiene products to most of the pro sports demographic, but I'm sure the management would love to have more women there. Offending a woman, minority, Libertarian, or shaman is just bad business. I don't know the origin of political correctness. Anita Bryant was a second runner-up in the Miss America pageant and pitch person for Florida orange juice. Her opposition to gays got her bounced from the OJ promotional business. Gays drink OJ, too, and Florida orange growers don't oppose them drinking OJ. John Rocker was as much a loose cannon off the field as he was on it, and his Don Rickles act, along with his i...

The Red Sox continued their strong play against the NL East and the 'Natural Rival' Phillies, with a 10-2 win over the Phillies. Josh Beckett worked eight quality innings, including retiring the first sixteen Phillies. Beckett complemented his 95 mph fastball with the overhand yellowhammer to baffle the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phils starter Brett Myers was alleged to have struck his wife in the head and pulled her hair in what must have been a wild scene not far from Fenway Park. "Myers declined to comment." Charles Barkley said, "I am not a role model." Evidently Myers is taking another former Philadelphia star far too literally. ESPN lists Myers at 6.4" and 238 pounds, which although not exactly the 800 pound gorilla in the room, brings Myers into that vicinity. Of course, that would be unfair to gorillas. If true, it's hard to imagine what kind of extenuating circumstances exist in the Philadelphia ace's case. If he were intoxicated, that would ...

After a long road trip and road-heavy schedule the Red Sox have an off day. How do ballplayers spend a day off? Some on the Bombers, especially the Juice Guys, probably spend some time looking for clean needles. Wouldn't want the growth hormone shots to be contaminated with hepatitis or AIDS. Health conscious means health safety. First, in deference to Rabelais and the French philosophical novel, I'd guess some are playing the two-backed beast. Manny Ramirez, believe it or not, is probably watching '24' reruns. Trot's probably watching Disney Netflix with the kids. Terry Francona, poring over the matchup charts for the Mets. I hope not, take a rest big guy. Jon Lester must be pinching himself. Could Kevin Youkilis be considering shaving off that stubble just below his lip? Don't do it, it's lucky! Wake would be enjoying his new Bernie & Phyl mattress Jon Papelbon might be breaking in that 'Hummer' from the car ads. Al Nipper's getting ready ...

Okay, I said I wouldn't do it, but I can't really help myself. Jon 'Mo' Lester has ten strikeouts through six innings tonight. I'm not making the kid out to be Steve Carlton, Jerry Koosman, or even Bruce Hurst, but he can make people swing and miss, even if they are from the NL East (okay, I've said that, too). Very refreshing to see the Red Sox give youth a chance. I hope that they protect their investment (pitch count). Some will argue that's stupid, but recall the A's blowing out some young arms years ago. Back when dinosaurs roamed the earth (and I pitched, or tried), I was taught that you WANTED the hitter to hit the changeup, not miss it. The Sox are trying to improve depth with Jason Johnson. Let's hope that he wasn't another doper who had a couple of decent seasons with the needle. Kevin Youkilis remains a phenom at first base/leadoff, with his stats better than everybody at first last time I checked, except for Giambi, one of the Juice G...

He's never hit .300, scored or driven in 50 runs in a season. He's never stolen 10 bags in a year. His range factor and fielding percentage aren't quite at the major league average. The best he ever 'rated' was fourth, in hit by pitches in the NL in 2004. Ouch. He's fairly versatile, playing second, short, third, and left field. His comps are guys like Glenn Hoffman, Luis Rivera, and Donnie Hill. There simply isn't anything remarkable about the thirty-year old from Caguas, Puerto Rico. But he knows the game. He always seems to be in the middle of a rally, slapping a single between first and second, or laying down a bunt, or turning a key double play. That's Alex Cora, a guy who can simply play. You won't win with twenty-five of him, but you may win more games with him as your 25th man, because he produces. He's Larry Izzo on special teams, or Bruce Bowen shutting down the star, a quiet lunchpail guy. I've heard that he's one of Terry Fran...

"Terry Francona is experienced with the double switch having managed in Philadelphia," croons Fox's Josh Lewin. He reports this with the calmness that the Nobel Committee announced that Albert Einstein had won the Nobel Prize in 1921 for describing the photoelectric effect, having been passed over for the Theory of Relativity. Certainly baseball managers have a variety of responsibilities, from strategy and tactics, teaching, player relations (parents sometimes call that babysitting), media massaging, and so forth. Sometimes their acumen gets raised to the level of "genius". Tony LaRussa received acclaim for genius, although I always thought that Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Dave Stewart, and Dennis Eckersley raised LaRussa's IQ dramatically in those years. LaRussa managed the Oaklands from 1988 to 1990 with winning percentages of .642, .611, and .636 to three pennants and one World Series Title. Inexplicably, he became mostly stupid for the...

The Red Sox handed the Braves their 16th loss in 19 games and moved into a first place tie with the Yankees, defeating Atlanta 5-3 at Turner Field. The Sox and Bombers improbably share the AL East division lead with 38-28 records. Why improbable? In 66 games, the Red Sox have scored 346 runs and allowed 328, while the New Yorkers have scored 386 and allowed 318. Applying baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem to winning percentage (runs scored squared/(runs scored squared + runs allowed squared) the Red Sox should have a winning percentage of about .527 and have won 35 games while the Yankees should have a winning percentage of about .596 and have won 39 games, in other words a four game lead. Toronto, leading the league in OPS and second in runs, has scored 375 runs and allowed 338, and more notably trails by 2 games. New York is first in runs scored (despite missing Sheffield and Matsui for much of the year) and second in OPS, while the Red Sox are sixth in both runs scored and OPS. The Yank...

"Give a man a fish, he eats today. Teach a man to fish, he eats every day." Sports fans are fickle. We want veteran experience and leadership. We want youthful energy and exuberance. The grass is always greener on the other side. The backup quarterback needs a chance. Cinderella just needs a pair of new shoes. Historically, the Red Sox training program for young pitchers hasn't borne much fruit. We've had the Boston Massacre with Bobby Sprowl, and a series of spot starts over the years yielding only bus tickets back to Pawtucket. But something IS changing. Jonathan Papelbon is the prime example, with save 21 tonight, and Manny Delcarmen has pitched creditably at times. But tonight was Jon Lester's road debut, with a crackling fastball and hard curve, picking up a victory with a one-run five-hit performance with five strikeouts and a quality start. The Sox haven't thrived on Interleague play, absent the DH, and historically with a team built more for bashing th...

Within every season, losing streaks are to be expected. A team with a .500 percentage would have a 3% chance of winning (or losing) 5 consecutive games if each game had independent and identical probability of a given outcome. Of course, injuries and slumps just happen in baseball and other sports. Earl Weaver used to say that "momentum lasts as long as the next game's starting pitcher." And unfortunately for the Sox, with a few notable exceptions, the pitching staff has gone cold. Learning the game of baseball involves more than showing up every day and putting in some time. We can only hope that Wing Commander Curt Schilling opens up the notebook to review the science and art of pitching with the Papelbons, Delcarmens, and Lesters of the organization. How does the hitter's stance affect his plate coverage? How does the game situation and count affect your pitch selection? What really makes the difference between winning and losing in The Show? As a practical matter,...

15.4 hits plus walks per nine innings, 1.5 homers per nine innings, and an ERA approaching six. Julian Tavarez may or may not be a "demon", "beast", or nice guy, but he can't get people out lately. It always comes down to money, doesn't it? If Tavarez were Manny Delcarmen, he'd be on the next bus out of here, but Tavarez has a track record, and although it's not spectacular, he stays, passes go and collects 200 dollars, about every tenth of an inning, for 162 games, if my math is anywhere near right. Mind you, I don't begrudge him the money. He can sit on the bench, mop up, pitch BP, or do something useful until he can get himself straightened out. But asking Terry Francona to send him out there in key situations lately has simply been a mistake. Maybe he has a hangnail, or a splinter, or a headache, or maybe he just needs a bad case of Hellenic Flu, as they say in the NBA. Or maybe JT can go toe to toe with Joey Gathright and get a longer suspen...

Tonight's game has been an old fashioned pitchers' duel - Koufax versus Marichal, Hunter versus Tiant. Johan Santana looked unhittable, and Curt Schilling nearly matched him, until both yielded two-out solo homers in the seventh inning. Both departed witht he score knotted at one in the ninth inning. One reason the Twins' pitching has succeeded in the past is their stinginess with the base on balls. Tonight has been no exception. Meanwhile, Curt Schilling's 34 inning walkless streak stopped with the Twins' leadoff hitter tonight. If David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in Sox history, then who are our memorable opponents from the Twins. Most Sox fans will probably say Kirby Puckett, whose eye injury cut his career short, but the two most memorable Twins for me were Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva. Oliva had the sweet swing, three batting titles, and rotten knees that held his career back. Killebrew had 573 homers with that uppercut swing that generated backspin...

Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Yet somehow, some way, people continue to allow David Ortiz to beat them. In a game that could only be described as plodding, the Red Sox got Big Papi into position in the ninth after Nixon and Crisp reached, watched him fall behind two strikes, battling back with a Carboesque* foul tip of an Otsuka slider. Number 34 then delivered a mind-numbing shot over the Sox bullpen to seal the walkoff, come-from-behind win. Yastrzemski in 1967 delivered repeatedly to carry the Sox on his back to the pennant. And Ortiz has the duende to rise to the occasion, stand and deliver. As a fan, or even just an observer of the baseball condition, you wonder how many times one man can come through. Ortiz simply defies analysis. *For the uninitiated or just YOUNG, in 1975 World Series Game 6, Bernie Carbo meekly fouled off a Rawley Eastwick pitch with two strikes, then delivered a three run homer into the trian...

Rookie Jon Lester didn't get a win yesterday. Neither did the Red Sox. Lester wasn't great, overthrowing at times, but he wasn't as bad as he looked, as the defense was anything but spectacular behind him (Kevin Youkilis for example, turning a popup into a 'double'). Still, Lester had two things that we haven't seen from a lefthander around here in a VERY long time - a swing and miss fastball, and a hard breaking pitch. I'm not saying he's Steve Carlton or Ron Guidry, just that hitters can't go up there expecting the soft stuff. Francona-like emphasizing the positive, a few guys are starting to swing the bat better, including Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek. On th other hand, David Ortiz, despite the 15 homers and 51 RBI, hasn't really hit his stride. Manny Ramirez (.993), Youkilis (.943), Mike Lowell (.930), and Ortiz all are in the top 25 of OPS. From a team offense perspective, the Sox are seventh in run (4th in runs per game) and fourth in OPS. ...

It was the 'Revenge of Earl Weaver' night for the Red Sox as they combined pitching (Curt Schilling and Papelbon for exercise) and the three-run homer (Dr. Longball courtesy of Jason Varitek) to walkoff with a face saving 'must' win in New York. Jaret Wright had the wrong stuff, and the Captain delivered the Proctorology to seal the win and prevent an early 2 1/2 game deficit. Meanwhile, on the human growth hormone front, I find it hard to believe that baseball cannot solve a problem simpler than the Riddle of the Sphinx. Rather the Players Union (pardon my snickering) considers blood testing an invasion of privacy. I'm wondering how many of these multimillionaires lack life insurance because they refused HIV blood tests or cholesterol screening? We can't know who is using and who isn't. Jason Giambi went from the Incredible Hulk to Twiggy, and is back again, the Incredible Bulk. Is he on the needle, or just a finely tuned athlete at the prime of his career?...

Gnashing of teeth is acceptable. Kicking the dog is not. Punching the speed bag might help. Punching the wall will not. We recognize that baseball is a game of inches, and a Bucknerian groundball led to a Bomber run, and a terrific catch by Cabrera denied Manny's bid for a homer. Still, relievers have to come in and throw strikes and Seanez' walking in the winning run defines futility. David couldn't quite overcome Goliath in Gotham tonight, despite a quality start by any means. The bigger picture however, shows differences between the teams, with the New Yorkers averaging over six runs a game (the Sox at 5.5) and the ancient rivals with an ERA of 4.28 to the Sox 4.75. The Pythagorean Equation of baseball assesses run differential and New York has outscored opponents by 77 and the Sox outscored opposition by 27. Only the magnificence (can you call it otherwise) of Papelbon (and New York injuries) have allowed the Sox to remain on the heels of the division leaders. We can on...

Let's come up with some positives. 10. No major injuries tonight. 9. Early 'oiling' for the RemDawg 8. Rest for some regulars. 7. No blisters with 46 pitches. 6. Jon Lester threw four scoreless innings tonight for the PawSox. 5. Youkilis wasn't hit on the arm again. 4. No second-guessing any Francona critical decisions. 3. "A beautiful night for baseball." 2. Second place allows us the 'we try harder approach'. 1. Wait'll tomorrow night with, er, David Pauley on the mound...I think I have some antacids in the cupboard. Bonus: Those Miller Lite 'Man Law' ads are great.

Mercifully, the graduation party season remains in full swing, while Jeremy Bonderman held the Sox to check swing. Whatever the postmortems may be after games like this, overcoming superior pitching simply doesn't happen with regularity. All of which is why the Tigers remain a force, although the loss of Mike Maroth certainly sets them back. Their staff revolves around power arms with the likes of Bonderman, Zumaya, Rodney, and Verlander, complemented by crafty veterans like Rogers and formerly Maroth. Tim Wakefield remains in run support purgatory, and we can only hope the sports psychology world has found Matt Clement. Aside from building a solid staff, the Tigers have built their team to their ballpark. While hitters' parks may be fan friendly, it's easier to attract and retain the essential ingredient, pitching, when the pitchers don't have to cower in fear. Don't expect the Phillies or Rockies to be able to compete with regularity in their bandbox/aerodynamics ...

Tony Massarotti wrote a lead article in The Boston Herald today, decrying the newly minted Red Sox fans. occupying the Fenway seats of the faithful departed. "And while the newbies prance around and act like they’ve never been there, the rest of us do the only thing we can. We wait to get our seats back." All one can ask is "who died and gave you keys to the ballpark?" What litmus test must be passed to qualify for "real fan" status? Did Tony watch Cleveland's Rocky Colavito at Fenway during Mr. Maz's childhood? Does he remember Colavito's stretching routine before he batted? Or did he yell down to Amos Otis from the centerfield bleachers on those scorching summer days? I never saw Ted Williams play in person at Fenway. Does that disqualify me? I have the bleacher ticket stub from Game 1 of the 1975 Series against the Big Red Machine. Jim Reinig, a Sox fan from South Carolina got me the ticket. Tony probably was there, too, because he's a g...

I guess it all comes down to "what have you done for me lately?" Ultimately, we are all supplanted by a new generation of (fill in the blank), whom we hope can do the job more effectively, more conscientiously, and cheaper than we can. Isn't that what 'outsourcing' is about? If we could outsource the DH position more cheaply and get more production, would the Sox have signed David Ortiz? The day the Jon Lesters of the world can get the job done cheaper than the Clements, then we toss them out and reinvest the difference in an outfielder, long man, or whatever. On the wrong side of fifty, I've seen enough winning and losing to appreciate a modicum or grace, class, or duende that is sorely lacking in today's world. I also understand the business side of sports well enough, from Helyar's 'Lords of the Realm' to the converse, guaranteed contracts and the high price of mediocrity, to know that everything changes. You pay your money, you have the rig...