Red Sox Reality Check

Young River : People don't like to be meddled with. We tell them what to do, what to think, don't run, don't walk. We're in their homes and in their heads and we haven't the right. We're meddlesome. - from Serenity, the movie. "What have you done for me lately?," is an age-old refrain familiar to sports fans. The Red Sox did not mortgage the future to pick up someone else's albatross, showing unusual patience. Maybe we give baseball executives too much credit. Did the Red Sox exercise patience or were the demands of their prospective trading partners so outlandish (Andruw Jones for Hansen, Crisp, and Lester) not to merit mention? We'll never know. Oh to be a fly on the cellular tower. So the Sox go into the dog days with Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Wells, and the Mystery Date. Of course, Tim Wakefield could heal quickly and regain his form, but then again that is the cost of increasing age. Wells has stunk up the joint tonight. Let's ca...

Markets and MLB aren't so different. Sure, we'd like to fantasize some pastoral anachronism about loyalty, teamwork, and fair play, but we're far too sophisticated to believe. Players correctly recognize they are fungible, fans are tools of ownership, and ownerships run businesses, not toys. Fan-centric ownerships could indeed try to cultivate 'mutual participation', but could that succeed in an industry run by lawyers and led by a used car dealer? Also, what kind of industry would set up franchises where the richest would have payrolls ten times the smallest, with all competing for the same prize? Which brings us to the trading deadline? You are untradeable if you have a no trade clause (which you wouldn't waive for the right price), or in certain instances because you have extreme value. For example, Jonathan Papelbon is having a historical season, at a bargain basement price. From a market perspective, you would say he's the ultimate growth stock, which y...

As the trade deadline approaches, it's the same old story - silly season is here. GMs everywhere want your young, low-salaried talent in exchange for their aging, expensive, 'battle-tested' veterans. So we'll endure the talk of Jon Lieber (puh-lease) for Jon Lester and more. Two words for the Red Sox management. JEFF BAGWELL. The Sox exchanged a possible Hall-of-Famer for Larry Andersen. Larry Freaking Andersen. The Sox have assembled a young and talented pitching corps (Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen) to supplement Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield. What they can get from Foulke, Clement, and Wells is frankly unknowable. But the Sox have the best chance to win, year in and year out by NOT DEALING away young talent for losing teams disposable players. Yes, disposable. JEFF BAGWELL. Oh, but what if Toronto or the White Sox gets Jon Lieber? Richard Thal wrote about it in The Winners' Curse . Invariably, bidding wars result in overpaying for mediocrity. We...

You're a Red Sox fan. Or you hate them. It's easy to understand the emotions associated with trips to the left coast. Here's why I can't stand the coast trips. Time away from family. They have enough sense to go to bed. I often stay up. Memories of exhausting my mom's radio batteries, falling asleep listening to those battles with Dean Chance et al. That means 'Sox Lag', similar to jet lag Also means fatigue hangover for the week. More caloric intake. A minimum of some extra popcorn, if not peanuts or some other high calorie snacking. The morning newspaper doesn't have either the score or the boxscore. Communication gap with fellow workers. They've either watched little or all of the game. I'm usually somewhere in between. The Oakland Mausoleum, one of the worst stadia around. At least since the demise of the Kingdome. Is there both a state and city tax on baseball tickets in California? Right field sun field in Oakland. Ichiro. The Pest. Memorie...

For many New Englanders, the Red Sox' March to October marathon becomes a focus, a raison d'etre. Our food tastes better when the Sox win, and from Bangor to Block Island, fans second guess lineups, strategy, and pitching changes. We have no life. Which brings me to today's topic, speculation about the future of the roster and the Sox going forward. At this point in the season, with the Sox in first place by two and a half games, despite the injuries which all teams face, there isn't any point in projecting the comings and goings, trade deadline excepted. First, concerning the trade deadline, every team in baseball wants more pitching and if available, somebody else's 'bat'. In the AL, only Baltimore, Tampa, Cleveland, and KC are 'out of it'. In the NL, aside from the Cubs and Pirates, everyone has at least an outside shot. That's not to say that the Nationals (unloading Soriano) and other teams won't try to rebuild on the cheap. Everyone...

"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet." And a flaming bag of dog poop would be as nasty... Statistics gives us terms to describe performance outside of expected parameters. Using a Gaussian or 'normal' distribution, we would find two standard deviations encompass 95 percent of expected upside and downside performance. That would still leave about 8 games a season (four at either extreme) where 'it' happened. On the upside, that could be an Ortiz game-winner or a Loretta 'Monster Seat' shot, and on the downside, there was today. Home cooking disagreed with Jon Lester to the extent of a five inning five run performance. Coco Crisp and Manny Ramirez misplayed the Beltre drive into an inside-the-park home run, Manny Delcarmen had his worst performance in weeks, and Mike Timlin surrendered the game-winning homerun to Richie Sexson. To be fair, we have to recognize that Seattle is not a bandbox, and the Beltre and Sexson shots were, just that, shots...

"No progress occurs without change, but not all change is progress." - John Wooden There are two advantages to aging, first a rather tenuous one that some people believe that through your experience, you may actually know something. Second, older folks have the advantage of having seen enough history and perspective to compare times directly, biased, but nonetheless reality-based. Baseball, as a microcosm of society, has undergone massive changes. Player compensation escalated dramatically in the wake of the elimination of the Reserve Clause and initiation of Free Agency. This had tremendous benefits for all strata of player wages, with both the minimum and average salary spectacularly increased. As documented in the baseball history by Sean Lahman salaries had increased minimally from 1947 to 1965, and Marvin Miller's intervention led to Free Agency in 1975. Although there have always been structural differences between franchise, this development significantly impaire...

The stupidity, the abject absurdity of Grady Little's managing of the 2003 ALCS deciding game was not removing Pedro Martinez after the seventh. For those watching, Martinez was at 101 pitches, and had been hammered in the seventh inning. His fastball still was in the low 90s, but had totally straightened out. Everyone also knows that at least Mike Timlin tended to pitch better coming in at the beginning of an inning than the end. Trot Nixon looked a lot bigger (15 pounds) back in 2003. I wonder what that was about. I guess he got on Jenny Craig. Tom Tippett's Diamond Mind Baseball is an excellent simulation product, although I haven't used the latest volumes. I do recommend the product, superior to APBA Games electronic simulation in my opinion. Diamond Mind had inning by inning and pitch by pitch simulation available, with a text rather than graphically intense product. I haven't bought a baseball computer game in a long time. Maybe Earl Weaver Baseball was my fav...

Josh Beckett has a live arm, a World Series ring, and the potential to be far more than he is right now. Today's contract extension shows that the Red Sox believe that he, along with Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon will form the cornerstones for the Red Sox starters of the next few seasons. Yes, Beckett has warts, and a history of blisters, and hasn't pitched 200 innings. His curveball isn't always consistent, and his changeup needs to lose at least 5 mph. He's been Denny McLain with the gopher ball. But he's still young, still learning his craft, and where better to learn for a passionate guy than where the passion rises to the heavens? Who's to say when Curt Schilling teaches him a devastating slider or he learns the Circle change, palm ball, or just learns how to choke the ball enough to make the changeup an out pitch? Add in Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen out of the pen, and you have almost half of a pitching staff that can compete for the division title ...

Jim Rice said that Jon Lester reminded him of the young Frank Tanana. I don't think he has quite the fastball that Tanana had, and I'm trying to think of whom he recalls to me. Most southpaws flourish via control and craft rather than power. I think Lester has the chance to be a top of the rotation guy, although I think he reminds me of Bruce Hurst. I still think Lester throws across his body just a little, that may help his deception but decrease his efficiency. It may only be the angle on television, but that just my impression. Tonight Lester minimized the baserunners, allowing just one hit and four runs in the best pitching performance by a Sox lefthanded starter, since, well, I have no idea when. He also picked off another baserunner. In the process, he raised his record to 5-0 and lowered his ERA to a microscopic (for the A.L.) 2.38. Rookie of the Year? I don't think so, as Jonathan Papelbon has lapped the field with his 28th save and an ERA of 0.55. What are they fee...

One of my baseball watching 'themes' is the unique event(s) seen at a ballpark on a given night. You could witness a magnificent catch, a bonehead baserunning play or other mental error, or anything in-between. Tonight's contest against the Royals didn't disappoint from that standpoint. One of the Sox 'Ironmen', Tim Wakefield, had to leave with an injury. Doug Mirabelli had a game-tieing homerun, after the umpire missed an obvious ball four. David Ortiz stole a base. Willie Harris narrowly scored on a sac fly after Jerry Remy questioned the move, qualifying it with the potential difference on a short sacrifice fly. Julian Tavarez didn't pitch. Enough about that. The Sox struggled offensively against a pitcher they hadn't seen before. At least I don't think they'd seen him before. The production has diminished at the top. Coming into tonight's game, Kevin Youkilis was seventh in the AL in walks, yet had only hit .118 in the last four games. Ma...

"The lady doth protest too much, methinks." - Shakespeare Nature abhors order, yet admires design symmetry. The Code of Hammurabi, an ancient judicial standard, looked to proportional punishment. And so the law of the baseball jungle persists, except for the Oakland A's. Friday night, after David 'Big Papi' Ortiz hammered a couple of Barry Zito offerings for outs, Zito came up and in, grazing Ortiz' hand. Craig Breslow, the molecular biophysics Yalie, sought physical retribution plunking Frank Thomas with an inside fastball. Yesterday, after Danny Haren, empowered absent batting in the American League hit Jason Varitek with a fastball thrown BEHIND him. Trust me, as a former college pitcher, even a mediocre one, I know that righthanded pitchers don't throw behind lefthanded hitters by accident. Later, Curt Schilling went to the Darwinian well and hit Nick Swisher just above the hindquarters. Naturally, the umpire warned both benches, and life went on. Exce...

One of my colleagues (a Yankee fan) told me that Kevin Youkilis is one of the most hated players in baseball. He said that Youkilis is perceived as being arrogant and obnoxious. Could it be that some resent Youkilis' attention in Moneyball, referred to as the Greek God of Walks? Coming into the season, you have something less than a household name in Kevin Youkilis. First the stats. Coming into the season he had a .376 OBP, .411 SLG, and .787 OPS. Not bad for a young player, but not exactly anything to knock your socks off. One homer and nine RBI in 2005 doesn't exactly breed arrogance either. Recent slump aside, Youkilis is fourth among AL first basemen in OPS at .865, first in runs scored (60), seventh in RBI (44), and third in the Sabermetric tallies of runs created and runs created per 27 outs. Not too shabby for a guy not much above the minimum salary and in his first full season of everyday play. From a fashion standpoint, I doubt Youkilis is getting high marks for eith...

Tonight's Red Sox action suggests an All-Star break 'hangover'. as both teams look sluggish. The pace, despite some Red Sox scoring and homers from Mike Lowell and Nick "Moneyball" Swisher, can only be described as plodding . Almost two hours into the game, nothing recalls the great post-season matchups the Sox-Athletics have had over the years. Does anybody remember the Sonny Siebert classics? No. Good for you, that means you're all far younger than I. Every opponent brings back some memories, the A's with their abominable stadium, and juicing stars of the past Canseco and McGwire. Actually, if you find a Mark McGwire 'Rookie Card', you see a guy who looks a lot more like Twiggy than the Incredible Bulk. You see Jason Kendall and wonder why he's not on the Pirates (or whether Jeremy Brown will replace him), and Jay Payton (yes, I still want to call him Gary), author of one of the most selfish stints in Red Sox history. Recall how Payton pulle...

Are you Red Sox fans crazy? Fakakta? Looney Toons? The Boston Globe offers Sox fans (and Internet-accessed space aliens) the chance to grade their heroes, from top to bottom . Not surprisingly, at the top were wunderkind Jonathan Papelbon, who achieved a 99.6% 'A' rating from Red Sox fans. As for the others, now we know who the 8 writers were who didn't vote Willie Mays into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot. David Ortiz wasn't far behind at 97.5%. Evidently, chicks do dig the long ball, and RBIs. On the other hand, Manny Ramirez only gets 68% 'A's. What's a guy got to do? Shave and a haircut, two bits. Well, let's think about the whole process. Are you graded on what you've done or what you're expected to do? Trot Nixon and Craig Hansen both have a dominant 'B' rating. Hansen's pitched a handful of innings and Nixon's practically 'the one'. Of course, Trot gets 6 'extra large' for his trouble, and Hansen's ...

One of the legitimate arguments with Red Sox management in the past was the failure to draft, develop, and incorporate young pitching into the major league scene. With the failure of higher priced acquisitions (Tavarez, Seanez), Terry Francona was forced to rely on young and unproven pitchers. The results have satisfied, particularly recently. Only Lopez is over 25. Pitcher... IP...H...ER...BB...K...W...L...ERA Papelbon. 44...22..2......8.....45...2....1....0.41 Lester.... 32.1..30...11.....20...30..4....0...3.06 Delcarmen 21..24..9.......7....19...1.....0...3.86 Hansen.... 10.2.11...6.......3....10...1.....0...5.06 Lopez..... 6.2....4.....3.......4....4....0.....0...4.05 Totals... 114.2...91.31.....42..108..8....1....2.43 WHIP ratio 1.16 K/BB...... 2.57 Admittedly, the sample size is small, but for Sox fans, the encouraging factors are recent improvements and overall quality of the body of work.

Red Sox fans know that time away from Fenway isn't always happy time for the Sox. In game 85 today, the Sox (53-22) guaranteed at least a .500 road trip, defeating the World Champion White Sox 9-6, behind potent offense, and superior relief from the Kiddie Corps (today Lopez, Hansen, and Papelbon) to claim consecutive victories. Josh Beckett (11-5), continued to struggle, but the pen bailed him out of a bases loaded, no out jam in the seventh to seal the win. Lopez came in to fan Jim Thome, and Hansen induced Paul Konerko to pop out to short right and Jermaine Dye, who had homered twice to line out weakly to short. David Ortiz extended his Red Sox record of homers before the All-Star break, hitting his 31st, and his eighth in July. Alex Cora swiped a pair of bases and Coco Crisp one as the Sox did it on the bases, too. The Sox have now won 53 times in 85 games, despite having played only 37 times at Fenway. Despite the tamper at Tampa, the Sox are third in runs scored and third in ...

Even when the team is going well, we're going to have some 'issues' to deal with. Inconsistency. It's really more of a problem of 'contagion', the condition of hitting or not hitting, which seems a team plague. Unrealistic expectations. Jason Varitek is a better hitter than he's shown recently. Is he hurt? Padding. People complain about armor-plated hitters, but more and more Sox are on the bandwagon. One-handed popup and fly ball catching. I wish A-Gone would stop with the Pete Rose popup catches... People complain about Manny in the outfield. He's pretty consistent, when he's not daydreaming, and that's at a minimum now. Coco's arm. He may make Johnny Damon look like Dwight Evans. Fortunately, he can catch indoors. Trust, lack of, in young players. Seems like Tito's getting over that, thanks to 'necessity'. That's not much of a list. What about the revelations? Youkilis and the 3-2 count. Patience is a virtue. The 6-4-3 and ...

My father used to have a saying (actually many), "house devils, street angels." That referred to children whom everyone thought (based on public persona) were perfect, only to be hellions at home. As for the Sox, they're tough at home, and have been pussycats in Tampa. Tonight, another no name pitcher (at least he was a righthander) baffled the Sox, while Jason Johnson made no one forget Jason Voorhees, as the Rays stung the Sox 5-2 to capture the series with three wins with one remaining. Lost in the drubbing were outstanding relief efforts from Jeopardy Category 'Ends with Z' guy Julian Tavarez who fired three scoreless, and Craig Hansen who mopped up with one. My guy Alex Cora found a number of ways to reach base, but was the unfortunate 'Old Maid' making the last out. Meanwhile, Cleveland Castoff Jason Johnson crumbled again, alternating batting practice with allowing Carl 'Beep Beep' Crawford to steal home. Jason Johnson doesn't look...

Every problem has a solution, although the Kazmir Problem seems to be growing like a fine wine ages. Tonight the Tampa portsider fired a 2-hit shutout as the Sox got an unwelcome return to the AL 3-0. Kazmir already has earned the honorable 'Ted Lilly' Soxkiller award, normally reserved for the likes of Whitey Ford, Dave Stewart, and Jim Palmer. So what are Sox fans to do? Other than calling the Revere Reeducation Center or Whitey Bulger, the Sox have only a few options, short of Wily Mo Pena returning to health. We could hope for a sudden case of progeria variant, and certainly nothing as awful as what happened to Dave Dravecky. We could ask Dave Cowens to see if he could talk Kazmir into driving a cab. And we could hope that as an impressionable young man, he might join a cult, but not one headed by Donald Fehr and Gene Orza. Better yet, we should start the "Bring Scott K to Boston Foundation," with only 500,000 New Englanders required to chip in ten bucks apiece to...

---------- OBP SLG OPS RUNS Player A .418 .497 .914 56 Player B .370 .468 .838 60 Scroll Down for answer Salary : Player A $354,600 Player B $13 Million Who's the bargain? Player A Kevin Youkilis Player B Johnny Damon

Realizing that certain All-Star positions are determined solely by 'distribution' of teams, we can at least look at where the Sox might fall on merit. It's hard to be as objective about defense, but we can look at Runs Created/27 at bats or OPS. Catcher Joe Mauer deserves it. RC27 9.81 ( Varitek at 3.88). Posada is number 2. First base Giambi and Youkilis are one-two at 9.72 and 8.04. Thome at 10.48, Ortiz is at 7.67 and has the intangibles. Travis Hafner is at 10.47 and deserves to go. Second base Brian Roberts (5.89) and Loretta (5.39) are one-two. Loretta has a chance. Tadahito Iguchi is another potential, but other White Sox will go ahead of him. Shortstop Derek Jeter is on top at 7.53, with Carlos Guillen and Orlando Cabrera not so far behind at 6.28 and 6.08. Cabrera may get the edge on distribution. Alex Gonzalez is 7th at 4.05. Tejada at 6.01. Third base A-Rod and Glaus are tops at 6.60 and 6.24. Lowell is at 6.10 (fourth). Chavez a possibility on di...

Baseball uses a special lexicon that many newcomers may not know. As a public service, Reality Check provides you with accurate definitions for selected baseball terms. Around the Horn: NESN strategy to use Disarcina, Eckersley, and Rice for commentary, dropping Sam Horn from the lineup Aspirin : What NL managers require for Interleague Play Back Through the Box : Where many fans want to go when listening to Tim McCarver or Joe Morgan commentary Bad ball hitter : Pitches in the dirt, see also protective gear, Carlton Fisk Base : (see battery) Battery : part of what Wes Gardner was and Brett Myers is. Beanball : Strategy employed by A's GM Billy Beane Bleachers : Everything not a Box Seat at Fenway Box Seat : everything not a bleacher seat, frequently previously a 'grandstand' or lower-priced seat. Bullpen : off field site for growing tomatoes Can't Miss : see soft-tossing lefthanders, as in hitters 'can't miss' their pitches Caught looking : ballplayers syp...

No wonder they call it the Senior Circuit. Are they using Senior Citizens to play against the AL? MLB designed interleague play to create additional fan interest. I suppose the true local rivalries (Yankees-Mets, Dodgers-Angels) do, but the Red Sox- Phillies, or Florida-Tampa Bay? Well, Brett Myers did create additional local interest. Guess that the old saw about 'there's no such thing as bad publicity' hit him in the face. Aside from the false premise, we have the lopsided results and some really useless stats like " Derek Jeter has the most hits in the history of interleague play." Oh, and of course, Manny Ramirez has a higher salary than the Florida Marlins payroll. But don't worry, Florida is trying to fix that, looking to dump Dontrell Willis so most of the Yankee starters will have a higher salary than the Florida payroll. Ironically, Florida is one of only two teams with winning records (Colorado being the other) against the AL. By division,...

Bad news, good news. The bad was the disruption of the Sox 17 game errorless streak with a first inning Mirabelli throwing error. The good news was an 11-5 trouncing of the Marlins, with both David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez going yard twice. Ramirez drilled a three-run shot into the bleachers in the first, his 2000th major league hit. Tim Wakefield moved to 6-8 with his 150th Red Sox win, as Wakefield is among the Red Sox career pitching leaders in most categories. The big picture is that the Sox have dominated interleague play, going 15-2. ESPN ranks the Sox number three in their power rankings, behind Chicago and Detroit. The Sox have just been overall solid recently, in almost all areas. The infield is sound, and they have middle infield depth at Pawtucket between Pedroia and Machado. The outfield came together with the return of Coco Crisp and the recovery of Gabe Kapler, who has been a talisman since his return, in addition to playing well. The starters with Schilling, Beckett, Wake...