Red Sox Reality Check

Let's not be hasty or inappropriate with our condemnations of Red Sox Czar Larry Lucchino. Criticism? Absolutely. Calls for corporal punishment and worse? No. Maybe we could describe his action best by imprinting 'stupid' on each grain of sand in the Sahara Desert. Maybe we could hire a private plane with a banner with the words, "Honk if you disapprove of Larry Lucchino's treatment of Theo Epstein." Maybe we could email RedSox.com by the thousands to express our dissatisfaction with management. Maybe we could boycott Red Sox merchandise for the month of November to demonstrate that disrespecting the fans actually costs something. What we shouldn't be doing is calling for the death penalty for mismanagement. We shouldn't be preparing our tar and plucking chickens, or contemplating abacination. The last Sox game I attended, when A-Rod would come up to hit, a fan repeatedly yelled, "hit 'im in the head." That isn't either sporting or cl...

(They smile in your face) All the time they want to take your place The back stabbers (back stabbers) (They smile in your face) All the time they want to take your place The back stabbers (back stabbers) All you fellows who have someoneA nd you really care, yeah, yeah Then it's all of you fellows Who better beware, yeah yeah Somebody's out to get your lady A few of your buddies they sure look shady Blades are long, clenched tight in their fist Aimin' straight at your back And I don't think they'll miss ----The Back Stabbers, by the O'Jays (BOSTON) On the eve of contract expiration, Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein resigned without comment. In his tenure as Red Sox GM, Theo Epstein made mistakes. However, he helped bring the Red Sox to three postseason appearances and a World Series Championship. He worked well with fellow General Managers and he was respected by players. We read ridiculous statements that Theo Epstein didn't play college baseball and so...

Does the Nation want wholesale restructuring? Do you really desire that the team be blown up and start over again, with young, hungry, unproven players? Do you want to win 75-80 games and say, "well, these guys are playing hard, playing the game right, respecting the game?" I didn't think so. Doesn't Sean Connery say something in The Rock about winners and losers? To win in professional sports, you need effort, but most of all you need talent. Tony LaRussa, the genius, hasn't won the big one for a very long time, because he hasn't had enough talent. Terry Francona managed more effectively in 2004 than in 2005 because he had better pitching. Every day I hear people whining about Manny Ramirez, how much money he makes, and what a terrible example he sets. Yes, I'd like a new, improved version of Manny, but I'm afraid that the spots we have are on the leopard we've got. Manny isn't turning over a new leaf, but bringing in a Gold Glove leftfielder ...

"Baseball isn't a matter of life or death; it's a lot more important than that." The Red Sox are officially no longer the World Champions. They enter the Hot Stove League with numerous question marks and around 90 million dollars or so already committed to the roster. So what can Sox fans dream about in their stockings? The Sox have pretty much always been about hitting, but never won it until the pitching produced. The rotation presumably builds around Schilling, Papelbon, Clement, and Wakefield. Wells wants out and who knows if Arroyo has another gear. Is he committed to keeping his day job? Every Sox fan from Bangor to Block Island longs for the power lefthander, and we fantasize about the prospects of Jon Lester being that guy. It's hard to know if the Sox are desperate enough to try (foolishly) to trade Ramirez (the Ortiz protection) for more pitching. In the pen, Timlin likely will return, and we expect more from Delcarmen and Hansen. Foulke, the deserved MV...

I'm sure that the Red Sox have some wonderful Plan B, a.k.a. stop-loss in the event that Theo Epstein decides to head west. If they have such a great plan, why go through extended negotiations? The fun of it? Professional sports are a very results-oriented business, not only do they have standings, they also have revenues to measure, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. Ownership either approves of the trends, or they don't. If you think that a championship and two other playoff appearances in three years is underperformance, then keep throwing Theo under the bus. Sure, the Sox probably proved parsimonious in the entry negotiations with Epstein, but nothing obligated him to re-up for below market value. However, now that serious coin is on the table, the 'obvious' obstacles become either insurmountable and revealed, or solved and suppressed. Epstein has a right to be proud of his accomplishments. For Mr. Henry, I think that Steve Cohen's best trader has a 63 pe...

In my haste to post to Dirt Dogs today, I incorrectly referenced "Man's Search for Meaning" Frankl's seminal work as "The Meaning of Life." Which means it would be really hard for L squared to find it at Barnes and Nobles or even Amazon. Mea culpa. Again. My literary references are smacking of Norm Crosby, or maybe Bing Crosby, or just Norm. Sigh.

The clock winds down as we move toward SD day. Does Theo Epstein walk away from the Nation, Lone Ranger style with a 'my job is done here'. Or does he limp away, battered and bruised, discontent and underappreciated? A patient came in today saying that when he was only 21 years old, he bought into a business, only to have the owner say, "I'm not paying any young punk 75 grand." My patient responded that it wasn't about his age, but about his ability and what he could do for the business. I always say that you wouldn't pay anybody a million bucks a year to sell shoes, unless he could sell twenty million dollars worth of shoes. Enter Michael Jordan. Hey, it's not my money, and I'm sure the Red Sox can find someone to take the job for less money and less power. It's called resume' building. Hell, I'll take the job and fetch Larry Lucchino his coffee for a lot less money. Do the right thing. Tick tock.

In psychology they call it 'ownership bias', the attachment one gets for what one possesses. In baseball, we call it the love affair for our hometown 'boys', whether they've earned it or scorned us. Www.baseball-reference.com gives us a means of quantifying how much love 'our boys' have shown us, using something called similarity scores. We can compare our guys to statistically similar players throughout baseball history, and see how much we might value some of those 'strangers'. First let's focus on the hitters we think are staying, Jason Varitek, Edgar Renteria, Kevin Youkilis, and probably Trot Nixon. We'll then look at 'the always leaving' Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Tony Graffanino, Bill Mueller, and Kevin Millar. Varitek's top similarity scores by age are: Darren Fletcher, Mike MacFarlane, Sandy Alomar, Mike Lieberthal, and Darren Daulton. Not bad, but nobody headed to Cooperstown. Renteria lines up with Allen Trammell, Di...

"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul." - from Billy Madison The quote from the school principal in Billy Madison distills much of the on air commentary from sports radio. If Trot Nixon forgets how many outs there are and tosses it into the grandstand, then it's a lapse. When Manny Ramirez fails to run out a groundball, it's a felony. Bertrand Russell reminds us that "the most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there is no good evidence either way. Persecution is used in theology, not in arithmetic, because in arithmetic there is knowledge, but in theology there is only opinion." Although baseball is a game where thirty percent b...

A patient came into the office today and told me that it was a 'done deal', Manny being traded to the Mets for a package including Carlos Beltran (I can never remember Beltran's name). Obviously, it can't be true (I'm told by Steve Silva of Boston Dirt Dogs because no trades can be announced until 24 hours after the Series), but I wondered, how should I feel about it, if it were true. Manny Ramirez has provided a lot of entertainment, with a lot better leftfield defense than he is given credit for (wall playing, taking away singles playing left, assists), although he clearly does have some mental lapses (don't we all?). He had a tough start last year, but finished with great numbers, better than ANY replacement (Pujols ain't walking through that door), and Manny isn't a malicious guy. Beltran had a .744 OPS last season, which isn't exactly Manny, or even Johnny Damon. His career OPS of .829 is less than Trot Nixon's .855, although at 28, Beltran ...

"There's nothing easier than spending someone else's money." - anonymous After wallowing in the shadows of defeat for nearly a century, the Red Sox, under new ownership, won a World Series. Is once enough? It's easy enough to assign blame, but difficult to compensate credit. I believe, from a business standpoint, that better management can produce superior results for lower costs. All this makes finding, supporting, and retaining the best management vital. We have to ask ourselves three questions, which will determine the outcome of the Red Sox General Manager's contract negotiations. First, what does Theo Epstein want? Does he want to remain in his hometown, to get the Damoclean sword of recognition and loss of privacy. What dollar figure is a deal-breaker? Can he work with the man whose ego dominates the Red Sox media presence, Larry Lucchino? Every manager has bosses to whom he must report, but Theo must chafe under the 'supervision' of Lucchino, wh...

Schadenfreude: "the act of deriving pleasure from another's misery." I suppose that we all revel in the fall of the mighty sometimes. We mere mortals are treated to stories of indictment of high government officials and the stain of steroid abuse by 'superstars'. Some feel compelled to visit to kick sand in the Red Sox Nation's collective faces because the Sox didn't repeat. I can't recall saying (or believing) that they would, and I certainly wouldn't have bet the farm, even a Fisher-Price one on it. However, since the Team That Must Never Be Named's fans come not to praise Caesar but to bury him, let's get down to it. The TTMNBN did manage to scrape out a division tie, with a mere 203 million dollar payroll. Coverboy Alex Rodriguez rewarded fans with a .133 post-season with no production offensively or defensively. Randy Johnson did scrape out 16 wins at about a million per victory, and Jason Giambi (now reborn with Stay-Puff Marshmallow ...

Okay, we can whine and kvetch, or move on and prepare for the 2006 season. The team needs to rebuild the infield, improve their overall defense, and get offensive production from first base. Without a great pitching staff, they will continue to need potent offense. Projections: C Varitek and Mirabelli (standing pat)...Shoppach on the block? 1B (I wouldn't trade youth, e.g. Hanley and Lester for Delgado, Konerko is the prize) Youkilis could be an option 2B Pedroia, Cora SS Renteria 3B (Don't think Nomar will be coming back) Joe Randa a pretty good player (see Youkilis under 1B) LF Manny CF Damon (will eventually come back, but should have Hanley Ramirez working out in CF) RF Nixon DH Ortiz OF Kapler (?injury recovered), Dave Roberts is out there and could replace Damon if they reallocate money to go for a Konerko, Preston Wilson strikes out a lot but has pop U - need some other potent RH bat, B.J. Surhoff a great character guy, P Schilling P Papelbon P Wakefield P Clemen...

Great to be in the playoffs for the third consecutive year, but the Sox got outpitched, outhit, and out-defensed by the superior team. Goldilocks got eaten by the three bears, Cinderella's swollen foot didn't fit, and Snow White got abused by the seven dwarfs. As for those who want to get rid of Manny Ramirez, I would just remind you of Exhibit A, the man's hitting and protection of David Ortiz. The rest of the lineup either picked a bad time to wear out, slumped at the wrong time, or got subdued by superior pitching. I'd expect the Sox to have new pieces at first, second, and third and once again the bullpen will have to be rebuilt (this time from within, using the kids Hansen and Delcarmen) while I'd expect the Sox to try to get a new (cheaper) centerfielder and some righthanded power. I doubt that Paul Konerko will be on their shopping list. As for the Francona bashers, try winning your fantasy league with the Red Sox pitching staff.

10. Home cooking. 9. Wake comes before the funeral. 8. Revenue enhancement. 7. Graffanino gets even. 6. Papi and Manny go back-to-back jacks. 5. Need for more late-night fatigue. 4. "We don't need no stinking small ball." 3. Not ready for a Johnny Damon curtain call. 2. Championship pride. 1. They never let us off this easily.

I'm sure that John Henry would remind us that Wednesday is the most significant 'reversal day' on the stock market (really). So it must be in Chicago also, with the Battle of the Crafty Lefties. Will it be Wells Swell or Buehrle's ' Hub Reels' (almost a clever anagram, eh)? The Red Sox threw the playoff-starved Pale Hose a bone yesterday, massively building up their overconfidence after a five year drought. So the Chicagroan's (pun intended) have the home field advantage, better starters, and a more consistent bullpen. They don't have no stinking trophy do they? The football guys always have their 'Auto Dealer' keys to the game. Why use auto dealers, especially U.S. ones, that are finance companies that loan people money to buy cars to pay off pensions because the car sales don't make any money? Well, baseball is simpler-score more runs than they do, win game. Ugh. Cave Man get on base and Surfer Dude hit him in, Red Sox win. Could the Red So...

The Red Sox hold a 7-1 lead in Game 162, but the Cleveland Indians completed their improbable collapse, being swept by the Chicago White Sox. So the Red Sox travel to the Windy City as the Wild Card, and the Team That Must Never Be Named face off against the Angels in Anaheim. Curt Schilling performed admirably as the Sox try to setup their playoff rotation, although I'd have pulled out EVERYONE by now to prevent any freak ankle sprains or hit batsmen (Jim Rice 1975). I hope that Francona will do the right thing here. Plus, who doesn't want to see Hanley?

So, the loyalists of Red Sox Nation are already looking for a scapegoat, and the regular season hasn't even finished. Last season the Red Sox entered the post-season via the Wild Card and it's there for the taking again. Let's examine where we realistically are, and why. First, eyes go upstairs to management. Theo Epstein acquired David Wells and Matt Clement to try to replace Pedro, who insisted on leaving and Derek Lowe, who simply had to go. Wells and Clement combined for 28 wins, Pedro and Lowe, last time I checked had 26, although does Derek landing a newscaster count extra? The fourth outfield was a self-centered jerk in his contract year, and brought Chad Bradford, who's hardly a keeper, but is still better than what they had. Wade Miller was Wade (DL) Miller. You take chances, they don't always work. What strings can Terry Francona pull? Jason Varitek was a must and Varitek's leadership and steadiness go underappreciated. Mirabelli doesn't hit much b...