Red Sox Reality Check

NESN just had a replay of an early April 2004 game against Toronto, Curt Schilling's first home start. The Sox won in extra innings. So what? The Sox infield had Bill Mueller at third, Felipe Crespo at short, Mark Bellhorn at second, and David McCarty at first. Gabe Kapler was in center, and the last two Sox pitchers were Bobby Jones (the walk ace) and Mark (rhymes with Alaska) Malaska. The Sox won on a David Ortiz walkoff homer in extra innings. If the Sox could win with that lineup, then anything is possible. _____________________________________________ Nothing new on the J.D. Drew watch, although we can imagine that his shoulder MRI isn't normal... Injuries can occur from narrowing of the space between the rotator cuff elements and the bone (impingement), rotator cuff tendon degeneration, or injury secondary to trauma. A brief but informative review of the shoulder stabilizing system is referenced here . You too can talk about shoulder pathology, and know the labrum from a ...

With a lot of time on our hands, and not much news, let's think back to 'signature' moments in current (and recent) Sox players' careers. Jason Varitek provides reliable if often unspectacular play behind the plate. In the 2003 playoff series against Oakland, Varitek blocked the plate and ultimately tagged out Eric Byrnes. Sure, Varitek has had some walkoff homer action and a game-tying homer against Seattle (if I recall correctly), but I'll always remember his defense first. Kevin Youkilis had the ninth inning two runner homer against Detroit last season to help the Sox win. I'm hoping that we don't hear too much of Youkilis behaving badly (surly) off the field to diminish his potential contributions on it. Manny Ramirez has had a lot of moments, but I think his first inning homer off Jeff Suppan in Game 3 of the 2004 series was his greatest moment. Suppan just pulled down 42 million for 4 years, making Manny's contract look cheap. Coco Crisp played hur...

With Matsuzaka and Okajima aboard, and who knows about the future, maybe it's time to start some Japanese-English baseball 'talk'. I'm going to import directly from a number of sites, especially here . banto: bunt batta: batter besuboru: baseball boru: ball chenji appu: change-up pitch daburu pure: double play era: error foa boru: four ball; a walk foku boru: fork ball furu besu: full bases; bases loaded gattsu pozu: guts pose; hot-dogging Japanese-style. After hitting a home run, a batter may punch the air with his fist, thereby striking the gattsu pozu homuran: home run kyatcha: catcher (also called hoshu) manrui homa: grand slam home run maundo: pitchers mound manrui homa: grand slam home run maundo: pitchers mound pure boru: "Play ball!" sanshin: strikeout sayonara homuran: a game-winning home run sebu: a save shuto: a variation on the screwball that is popular among Japanese pitchers suitchi hitta: switch hitter sutoraiku: a strike sutoreto: straight ball...

At ESPN Insider, Peter Gammons talks about the support system available to Matsuzaka, as well as the "mean-spirited" Boston fans and a media which hopes for the latest Japanese import to fail. He also points out that the Red Sox are likely to sign Chan Ho Park (as possible closer), and that Manny Ramirez WILL be the Sox leftfielder this season. As for the worst signing of the winter, "the Commissioner" notes the Royals signing of Gil Meche. He also does a post-mortem on the Mets' Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano deal, on the presumption that "little guys can't play." The Sox acquire Brendan Donnelly from the Angels. Of note is Donnelly's number one comp on the "similarity scores" hit list, Scott Linebrink, for whom the Sox seemed to have lusted. For whatever reason, Phil Seibel didn't seem to be in favor, so he'll get a fresh start on the left coast. For those who are wringing their hands about the absence of a closer, I'd...

It appears that the deal for Daisuke Matsuzaka is done. Time for the Berlitz courses to begin and the translation sites will prosper. But at Reality Check, we are also about 'giving back'. So here's some key hints for the Dice guy as he heads to Boston. Hire a driver. Why let the one way streets and rotaries make you crazy when you can easily afford quality transportation? Don't bother to learn much English. Whatever you do, DO NOT read Dan Shaughnessy or Gerry Callahan. Don't listen to sports radio. Listen to Jason Varitek. He's an honorable catcher. What about Mirabelli? Don't worry, you won't pitch to him much. Don't carry a lot of cash. Let the riff-raff (everybody but you) pick up the tab. Think about investing your 401-K with guys like Henry. He really does know something about money. Do not spend too much time with "Baseball Annies." Ask around Fenway about a guy named Derek. Don't forget about your Japanese baseball experience. ...

The news highlight since the predetermined signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo was Jason Varitek's appearance at a Celtics' game last week. And with the ticket prices in Boston these days, one wonders whether you have to be a multimillionaire to attend a game. Meanwhile, back at the non-negotiation table, the rumor is that Scott Boras, Daisuke Matsuzaka's agent, has never made a counter-offer to the Sox' original lowball offer, whatever that was (greater than the GDP of Haiti). Or as the joke goes, "what's the difference between Scott Boras and a terrorist?" You can negotiate with terrorists. If Matsuzaka's currently pulling in about 2.5 million (whatever that may be in yen), then not negotiating for a sum twenty times higher over about four years wouldn't make most players confuse Boras with Einstein, or even Steven Hawking. In fact, that might make Jody Reed's agent look less absurd (you may recall that Reed turned down a king's ransom o...

Signs that the end of the world is at hand - Jason Schmidt gets 47M/3 and writers say "bargain" Ted Lilly gets 40M/4 Rangers will pay Zito "whatever it takes" New Orleans Saints lineman banned for asthma medicine (?) Julio Lugo gets 36M/4 ROY Hanley Ramirez gets the minimum Carlos Lee can tell Warren Buffett he's a piker Mariners try to dump Beltre and Sexson on Sox for Manny Theo doesn't fall for it Another Boras client pitching to Sox (is that Gag-me or Gagne?) Well, at least the games won't be lost because of terrible offense very often.

Hey, it's not your money. SS Lugo 1B Youkilis DH Ortiz LF Ramirez RF Drew 3B Lowell C Varitek CF Crisp 2B Pedroia Extra OF - Pena (among Manny, Crisp, Drew the fourth outfielder could play 100 games) Next up for the Sox, a roll of the Daisuke?

Fiscal irresponsibility has its price . Box seats in the Bronx go up a mere 40 bucks next year. Thank the baseball gods for the benevolent Sox, who never raise prices, while bringing us great VALUE every year. How does the saying go, "price is what you pay, value is what you get." I'm sure that the Sox have some kind of trending value statistic, such as the projected win shares/dollar based on a three year moving average or some such statistical mumbo jumbo. We certainly don't believe that it's just reach into the free agent hat and pick a guy. A few visitors come and project the starting lineup, or at least recommend what they feel 'should' be the starting lineup. There's no harm in being wrong, right? C - Varitek (should rebound from last season's underproduction) 8 win shares last season was a disaster. 1B - Youkilis a dollars/win share bargain 2B - Pedroia - can the guy cut down on his swing and improve his defense going to the right...I'...

Here's the direction that Theo Epstein travels with his relentless pursuit of J.D. Drew and efforts to dispatch Manny Ramirez. Yes, ponying up ridiculous sums for a corner outfielder with a checkered health past has opportunities. Maybe Partners Healthcare will sponsor J.D. Drew as the Partners Red Sox outfielder. Sure, that's the ticket, another marketing opportunity. J.D. Drew, when healthy, and motivated, has skilz. Availability? That of course, is another question. Some have speculated that Drew's signing somehow links to Matsuzaka's via the Boras connection. Doubtful. Boras isn't a guy who leaves a nickel on the table. Should we hate him because he does his job well? Don't answer that. As for trading Manny for prospects or the likes of Scott Linebrink , was Linebrink a little off last year, or is he in a downtrend? Is a guy with an average win share rating of ten, your kind of guy? Eerily, this has the feeling of A Christmas Carol, with Theo playing the rol...

I haven't taken any position on the J.D. Drew free agent acquisition 'controversy', mostly because I haven't really studied it. Let's run the numbers first, and then come back to intangibles. Bill James' analysis: WIN SHARES 2004: 34 2005: 13 2006: 21 Meatloaf says, "two out of three ain't bad," so I'll defer to him. Drew obviously played at an extraordinary level in 2004 and rebounded to 'All-Star' caliber play last year, ergo, the big payday. The Big Picture : Baseball Reference - Overall career stats: .286/.393/.512/.905 Scored 100 runs once, 100 RBI once. Similarity scores: most similar player TROT NIXON Similar batters through age 30: include Jim Edmonds, Larry Doby, Kirk Gibson, David Justice Three year statistics : .293/.415/.532/.947 Pre and post All-Star similar .263/.387/.427/.815 versus LHP very few appearances versus AL East rivals Comments: Bill Belichick talks about the importance of both ABILITY and DURABILITY. The money...

Many ballplayers deserve the title, "Red Sox killers", through the years, from the infamous (Bucky Dent) to the lesser known (Gates Brown). A free agent pitcher who seems to have dominated them through the years is Ted Lilly . Let's take a look at his recent career and try to get inside the Red Sox front office's collective psyche concerning Lilly. First, the thirty-year old southpaw is a career .500 pitcher (59-58) with a 4.52 ERA. For the past three seasons, he is 37-34, with ERAs from 4.06 to 5.56 and an average WHIP ratio of 1.42 (not that great). He's been plagued by the gopher ball, surrendering an average of 26 homers/year during three years as well with a strikeout/walk ratio of 424/228. From the Jamesian Win Shares perspective, he had 16, 4, and 12 from 2004 to 2006. For three year splits , he has allowed opponents to hit .249 with .755 OPS against and had similar ERA at home and away. He's pitched about the same before and after the All-Star break bu...

Oh to be a fly on the wall at the Fenway Park Baseball Operations suites. With the countdown on Daisy Matsuzaka in progress, the Sox have to consider the total experience for a Japanese import. And who better to know than someone with American League and Red Sox experience, Tomo Ohka. Let's run the numbers. Ohka has had a WHIP ratio of 1.31 to 1.39 the past three years in the NL. The good news is that he had excellent control, averaging about three walks per nine innings. The bad news has been that his ERA has been rising, and his win shares haven't, 4 in 2004, 8 in 2005, and 5 in 2006. He has pitched better on the road than at home the past few seasons, but hasn't pitched enough against AL teams to have a read on that. Is he under consideration to add to his 10 million in career earnings? 10 million bucks and 48 career wins. What a country!

Examining the first full season of Kevin Youkilis, I'm struck by the disparity between his Moneyball reputation and what actually transpired. At first base, Youkilis had question marks written all over him. Defensively, he proved to be more than adequate. Offensively , at .279/.381/.429/.810 he proved to be, what? With 91 walks he finished seventh in the AL, and he was eighth in doubles, and tenth in times on base. With 100 runs scored, his thirteen homers and seventy-two RBI seemed adequate, as long as he was hitting leadoff or second. Now for the issues. His home versus away OPS was .844 versus .774 and pre-All-Star game he was .874 and post .728. His leadoff OPS was .815 and his leadoff OBP was .385. Although he fanned 120 times, 68 came before the All-Star break. He was tied for second in OBP as first baseball with Paul Konerko, behind Jason 'Juice Guy' Giambi, led 'qualified' AL first basemen in runs scored, but was eighth of eight first basemen in OPS. The AL...

The Red Sox continue to work under the radar to renovate last year's Poseidon Adventure. "There's no crying in baseball", so let's focus on what is, not what might be. The Sox struggled mightily down the stretch, both OFFENSIVELY and defensively (pitching). Offensively, what changed? No Manny Ramirez, no production. The sanctimonious buzzards (polite words) of the press want somebody who busts his tail every time he grounds out to short, and puts up big numbers. He must also communicate as effectively as say, Mike Greenwell, a media darling who averaged 10 homers and 60 RBI his last SIX seasons in Boston, and played left field as though he needed a helmet.Let's recite the reasons Manny Must Go. He doesn't run out every groundball (see Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski). He's overpaid. Almost everyone in baseball is overpaid. He doesn't produce enough. Compared to Hank Aaron or Willie Mays? Similar batters through age 34 at Baseball Reference include G...

The American League named Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau the AL MVP for 2006 today, beating out Derek Jeter and a distant third Sox DH David Ortiz. Let's look at some numbers within the context of the recognition that shortstop is a much more valued defensive position than first base, although Morneau fielded well and had a solid range factor. Although Jeter won the Gold Glove, many observers would rate him defensively behind a number of AL shortstops defensively, including Alex Gonzalez, Juan Uribe, and arguably Miguel Tejada. Jeter .343/.417/.483/.900 118 runs, 14 homers, 97 RBI Morneau .321/.375/.559/.934 97 runs, 34 homers, 130 RBI Ortiz .287/.413/.636/1.049 115 runs, 54 homers, 137 RBI Jeter proponents may argue the 'lifetime achievement' award factor, that he deserves recognition for the entire body of work for his career. Because the award does not include the playoffs, no issue arises there. Morneau had a solid but unspectacular stretch run (.879 OPS Aug...

Frank Catalanotto has been a Red Sox killer, and apparently he has signed with the Texas Rangers for about thirteen million dollars for a three-year deal. He is a 'classic' Moneyball player, with good on-base-percentage (.297/.362/.454/.816), generally mediocre defense, and at this point in his career does not run. His best season he hit .300, and had 83 runs scored, 13 homers, and 59 RBI. Do you want that for your corner outfield, DH, or first baseman? At second base his range factor (in limited appearances) is poor, 2.97 compared to a league average of 4.33. His similarity scores include Shane Mack, Jay Payton, and Shea Hillenbrand. Texas is rumored to be one of the teams inquiring about Manny Ramirez (a 10 and 5 man who must agree to any deals), whose value escalates in view of the Soriano deal at 17 million per for a mind-numbing eight years. My friends argue that Texas' chance of EVER winning are hurt by their grueling heat, which wears pitchers down, particularly dur...

Some wag once said the problem with free agency wasn't paying the stars but the high price of mediocrity. I'd say there's a bit of both. Alfonso Soriano apparently gets 'Derek Jeter money' and we've yet to hear whether Nomar Garciaparra, who spurned 15 extra large per year for four years will get anything close to that in Dodgerland. Meanwhile, Alex Gonzalez parlayed his defensive excellence into almost five million dollars a year, which certainly makes signing Alex Cora at two million a year seem like chicken feed. Actually, the commercials are pretty short corn futures , so maybe chicken feed will come down. I'm sure that Mr. Henry would be able to give me a better answer on that. And how will the Red Sox willingness to spend 51.1 mill to talk with the Japanese not spill over into the broader market? Why should a college or high school free agent be bound by the MLB draft rules as the Players' Association hasn't negotiated on their behalf? And why ...

The Red Sox seem to have this fascination with Julio Lugo. Until today, I didn't even know he is only one of three Lugos to play in the majors, another being his brother Ruddy. Why the obsession with Lugo? Is he a terrific player, or does he just have pictures of the front office? In the similarity scores at Baseball Reference , Lugos ten comps include Adam Kennedy, Rafael Furcal, David Eckstein, Eddie Bressoud, Pat Meares, Cristian Guzman, and Rafael Furcal. Not a whole lot of household names there, unless your household is Baseball Prospectus. Last year in split duty with Tampa and the Dodgers, he had 12 homers, 24 stolen bases, and was .341/.421/.762. His batting numbers with the Dodgers were hideous, .278/.267/.548. His fielding percentage at shortstop was .957 (Alex Gonzalez was .985 I think), with an average range factor. In other words, he was a decent stick, but not so great with the leather. Ordinarily he had a higher fielding percentage and range factor, but the fielding ...

Whoa! This Matsuzaka guy has it together, hiring Borat as his agent. Maybe Borat has some quotes for Boston American baseball fans. Reality Check: Welcome to Boston, Borat. How does your client feel about coming to America? Borat: My country send me to US to make hero worship and lots of American money. Reality Check: What does Daisuke think of Boston? Borat: You are stupid. Boston people worship Japanese baseball pitcher, welcome with open wallets. Reality Check: Do you have a negotiating strategy with Theo Epstein? Borat: I did not come to Bean City to negotiate. We come to get paid, in many American ways and maybe in Euros. Reality Check: Have you met the Red Sox negotiating team? Borat: Have you no sense of smell? I have met with many of theme. Can you not sniff that? Reality Check: Does Mr. Matsuzaka look forward to playing with any of the current Red Sox? Borat: Cultural exchange big part of baseball experience. Daisuke know of warmth of Sox penthouse where players stay. Reality ...

Theo Epstein has some valuable assets working with him, and we can only hope that the GM has some Game Theory background. As a trader, I'd be shocked if John Henry didn't have some or perhaps read Richard Thal's book, The Winner's Curse . Here's a little sample of Game Theory to ponder. How'd you like them applets? David Marasco has more on The Winner's Curse. I regularly discuss investing and the stock market at one of my other sites , and one of the most important principles in trading is similar, "buy 'em when you can, not when you have to." Most people tend to invest when the price is high, rather than when the price is low. We also tend to overvalue what is 'ours'. A lot of free agent pitchers have turned out to be busts, for example Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, and Matt Clement. Of course, Curt Schilling helped bring the Sox to the Promised Land. Epstein and the Sox braintrust have apparently made a bold move in bidding high for Ma...

Wow. I didn't know " daisy chain " had so many meanings. Maybe another will be the sequence of events leading the Red Sox to the front-runner position to negotiate for Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. If the Sox do win his signing rights AND sign him, then the first order of business will be nicknames. Matsuzaka certainly has quite a resume in Japanese baseball, and the Sox obviously wanted to atone for last season's atrocity with a big splash. Dealing with $cott Bora$ won't be easy under the best of circumstances. I'm sure that Boras has a coffee-table book already prepared explaining how Daisy already belongs in the Hall of Fame. Let's look at some other Daisies. Daisy Duck. Those of us old enough to remember L'il Abner and Al Capp remember Daisy Mae. And the Dukes of Hazzard give us Daisy Duke... So what have we here? Daisy Mats? Daiszilla? Yeah, Daiszilla. Bring on Daiszilla.

Here's the six-year tenure of Manny Ramirez. 110 homers the first three years, 113 the last. 336 RBI the first three years, 376 RBI the last. Batting average over .300 five times, and on base percentage and slugging percentage (right of chart) always around .400 and .600. And, oh yes, there's the matter of protecting David Ortiz and the relative lack of protection that he gets. Yes, Manny can get 'squirrelly' at times (flaky bad players simply get released), and defensively he's not Yaz, but I'd rather have him out there than Mike Greenwell any day. Does he run out every grounder like his pants are on fire? No. He must have really set a terrible example for Hanley Ramirez, as he really underachieved for Florida. No, maybe it was Anibal Sanchez then. Yeah, Sanchez only batted .114 for the Marlins. Does Manny set a wonderful example for all of his teammates? Maybe not. I don't really care if underachieving, overpaid guys gripe because they aren't happy w...

Bill Haselman will not return as the Red Sox first base coach. Dave Magadan replaces 'Papa Jack' as Red Sox hitting coach. What does it all mean? I doubt that even the most ardent fan could name five current major league first base coaches. Terrific coaches can help a team in many ways, from scouting, to honing fielding or baserunning skills, and probably some serve as liaisons between players and managers who are not on the same page. But what does that mean in terms of 'Win Shares' as it were? If given the choice between great talent and great coaching at the major league level, I'd take the talent any day. The Cardinals' win this year rehabilitated Tony LaRussa's image. LaRussa has a career managerial winning percentage of .536. Is this good or bad? If you have the opportunity to manage the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, and so on, the (financial) royalty of major league baseball, shouldn't you be expected to deliver a high winning perc...

The Internet provides a sense of anonymity, and a forum for many types on uncivil discourse. I value articulate opinions of why players rate where they rate. Derek Jeter is one of the leading MVP candidates of the league, a proven winner, considered a 'clutch' player by many who believe the 'clutch' performer argument, and handsomely paid by his employer. Should he win the MVP, I would be the first to congratulate him on his merits. As for declaring him the best defensive shortstop of either this season or his era, the facts simply do not support that argument. Is Jeter a better player than other possible choices, such as Alex Gonzalez? Certainly, he is. And will Jeter enjoy having the Rawlings Gold Glove on his mantle? Undoubtedly. But like Olympic judging, he has won the award this year on subjective not objective merit. However often his fans launch expletives and insults to this observer, I will defend their right to their opinion, and simply point out that "fa...

WEEI reported that the Red Sox, despite leading the league in defense, have no Gold Glovers. And ESPN confirms that with Derek Jeter getting the hardware at shortstop and Eric Chavez at third base. Let's examine whether this became a political hack job, using the yardsticks we have, range factor, fielding percentage, win shares, and so forth. Shortstop Derek Jeter has the Nomaresque talent of making the easy play look sensational, while Alex Gonzalez makes the exceptional play look easy. Jeter had 4.6 Win Shares (the Bill James rating system) compared with Gonzalez 5.9. Notable in that Gonzalez played fewer games. Jeter had a fielding percentage of .975 (compared with the league average of .970), a range factor of 3.97 (league average 4.02), and participated in 81 double plays, starting 149 games. Gonzalez had a fielding percentage of .985, a range factor of 4.22, and 68 double plays, starting 110 games. So Gonzalez had a better fielding percentage, range factor, and more double pl...

What are your most vivid Fenway memories? I don't necessarily mean the best ones, just memories etched upon your consciousness...good or bad. 1. Much like Fever Pitch, that first walk up the ramp to see the resplendent verdant field, can never be forgotten. 2. "Loop towards shortstop . Petrocelli 's back, he's got it, and the Red Sox win it! And there is pandemonium on the field...Listen!" -- Ned Martin's call of the final out of the 1967 Boston Red Sox "Impossible Dream" regular season (station was WHDH AM 850) I remember jumping around my parents' front yard deliriously after the Sox won. More than anything else, that season put the Red Sox on the map. 3. I attended a game against the Angels (I think) in the 60's, and during a rain delay, a groundskeeper keeled over (? heart attack) while running out the tarpaulin. "Baseball isn't a matter of life and death, it's a lot more important than that." Not that night. 4. Reggie ...

Question. If you 'run' the Red Sox as a business, what is your first off-season priority? Answer. Restore credibility in the franchise, which didn't just underachieve, but embarrassed itself taking some lickings at the hands of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and their ilk. Question. How do you accomplish that? Answer. The American League has become the league of both pitching and OFFENSE. Statistically, the Sox had two superior players ( David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez ) and one productive player (Youkilis), and the remainder of the lineup chipped in here and there, but no baseball afficionado would consider the rest of the lineup offensive dynamos. Question. Where do you start? Answer. Short of getting back Hanley Ramirez (not happening), the Sox need to rebuild the offense, starting with another power hitter, hoping that a healthy Coco Crisp can get the job done in center field. Is Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano a possibility? Where will Youkilis hit?. He strikes out a lot to...

The Red Sox announced that about 81 percent of existing ticket prices would remain unchanged for the 2007 season. I'm sure that relieves many of our anxieties that tickets could actually get expensive. "America's Most Beloved Ballpark" already had the highest price tag for a family outing of four, currently only requiring a second mortgage, a downgrade to regular from high test, turning the heat down to 60 at night, and buying only generic turkey hot dogs for weeks. If I can find my Game 1 ticket stub from the bleachers in 1975, I think it will show $4.75 for attending a World Series opener. Now that's almost the price for a bottle of water. Well, water is the commodity of the 21st Century, and I'm sure that Mr. Henry will confirm that, although a lot of other commodities haven't treated him so well in the recent past. Of course, that also means that 19 percent of ticket prices will rise. I guess I'd like to sit in the Monster Seats someday, and that...

Let's pretend that we're the 'collective' GM for the Boston Red Sox. How would we approach the retooling of the franchise for the upcoming season? Some issues for consideration including pitching, defense, offense, reorganization of the minor leagues (development versus free agency), budgeting, coaching staff changes, and the role of sabermetrics (quantitative player analysis). I don't see any tectonic organizational shift away from 'Moneyball', particularly because 1) John Henry believes in trends and 2) it worked well enough prior to this season. Coaching staff changes grab some headlines, but don't promise transcendental performance shifts. Ron Jackson and Dave Wallace departures don't translate into major win-loss shifts. You can reorganize the minor leagues, but like commodity infrastructure (planning oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico) doesn't change the end product for years to come. The Sox minor leagues seem to underproduce major leag...

You don't have to know rocket science or the Theory of Relativity to understand the depth of concern that Red Sox fans have for the organizational direction. Not since 1966 has the franchise appeared so mediocre but not average as the Sox did during the final two months of 2006. From 2003 to 2005, the Red Sox finished second in the AL East three times, advanced each year t to the American League playoffs, and won the World Series in 2004. To an extent, long-suffering Sox fans give the organization a mulligan for 2006, including a disastrous series of illness and injuries and trades that (as always) require longer samples to judge fully. By what metric can we baseball outsiders judge the performance of the front office, most notably, Brookline's Theo Epstein. The GM stated, “We were a strong club. We took on so many holes because of injuries. With those gaps we got to a certain performance level . . .” Last offseason the Sox wallowed in confusion, the Gang of Four at the Winter ...

The Red Sox and the Yankees share a cosmic connection, one often affirming the Universal Law of the Conservation of Happiness - boon for the Red Sox is anathema for the Yankees. And the Curse of He Who Must Never Be Named lives on. I traveled to a conference in August and met a former Yankee employee at the most unlikely of places, the Lazy J Ranch not far from Vail. He explained how the Yankees would not win the World Series this year, just as they had failed the past five seasons. George Steinbrenner had fired him not long before the 2001 World Series. He didn't sulk, whine, or complain. His wife cursed the Yankees. We all realize the futility in curse belief, especially in a game where dollars, not sense rules team composition. The Benjamins flow freely in their beloved Bronx, to the point that acquiring more than 20 million dollars in payroll in late July becomes not the norm but the expectation. The Connecticut Yankee Carl Pavano has turned out to be the biggest bust of the Ta...

Baseball's annual marathon ends today for the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Last night only reinforced the contradictions of 2006, with the Sox squandering a lead in the ninth inning. Absent Jonathan Papelbon in the closer role, Mike Timlin couldn't finish off the Birds, and Kevin Millar laced a hit off the wall to provide the coup de gras. Manny Ramirez made a cameo appearance at DH, and homered. Revisionists still call for Manny's ouster (amidst his annual trade requests), ignoring his productivity. Yes, he is a troubled employee, but a useful one. The Red Sox West (San Diego) gets into the playoffs behind David Wells, and lets not forget Dave Roberts, Cla Meredith, Josh Bard, and others. Sox fans say 'farewell' (maybe) to Trot Nixon today, and I hope they reward his service with a lengthy standing ovation. Nixon may not have been a great player, but played hard and often hurt. I've asked my wife (who's going to the game with a friend) to do her part in salut...

The Red Sox won't be going to the postseason, but they haven't mailed it in. Tonight they won their ninth consecutive home victory over the Orioles, holding off the Birds 4-3, with Julian Tavarez finishing the season at 5-4 and Mike Timlin picking up his ninth save. Trot Nixon had an ofer but hit the ball hard several times as he plays out his season as the Sox member with the longest continuous service. Nixon, plagued by injuries, becomes a free agent at the conclusion of the season. Mike Lowell had a pair of hits and closes in on 80 RBI to accompany 19 homers as he becomes a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Lowell will also duel Eric Chavez for Gold Glove at third base, and turned in another gem tonight, making a leaping grab of a liner. Dustin Pedroia played shortstop tonight and turned in a sharp DP with Mark Loretta on a shot up the middle. Pedroia has impressive college and minor league credentials and continues to get his feet wet as he tries to make the leap t...

"Victory has a thousand fathers; defeat is an orphan." John Henry remains the principal owner of the Boston Red Sox. Henry enjoyed remarkable success both in money management and professional baseball, as two of his teams have captured World Series Championships. Most Sox fans view Henry, Tom Werner, and Larry Lucchino as the business operations side, and General Manager Theo Epstein as the head of Baseball Operations. We all have heard of the infighting between Lucchino and his proxies with GM Epstein over control of the baseball side of the house. Where does the post-mortem begin on the 2006 edition of the Boston Red Sox? First, we can examine the Red Sox as a business, with Forbes reporting Red Sox total revenue as $171 million in 2002. We know that Larry Lucchino runs the business side of the house, and the Sox have continually poured money into upgrading both Fenway Park's amenities and its capacity. According to Nintendorks (via Forbes) the Sox increased their rev...

We often hear about the importance of making adjustments to become a successful major league player. Opponents and high tech scouting will find and exploit weaknesses mercilessly. Are you tipping a pitch? Are you unable to hit the inside fastball? Are you a sucker for gas upstairs or the breaking stuff away? Players who want to have an extended career have to analyze and adapt to minimize their weaknesses while emphasizing their strengths. Fans need to make adjustments, too. We don't have to carry water for players who can't produce, or blindly worship 'laundry'. On the other hand, if the Sox put the Vienna Boys' Choir on the field, they might be great guys, but they won't win anything. As a fan, I can live with Manny Ramirez, who may not be a 24/7 effort guy, but whose results far exceed the marginal player, high effort guys like Steve Lyons. Guys like Lyons might hang around the majors for a lengthy career, through pluck and versatility, but you can't win ...

You have to ask yourself why you're still turning on NESN (or MLB.com) to watch the Red Sox. David Ortiz has assured that Jimmy Foxx's record has left the building, and the battle for second place in the AL East has all the intensity of watching your lawn grow. So why tune in? Because you're part of the Matt Clement watch? Because you can't get enough Bobblehead and brown tee-shirt talk from Don and Jerry? Play the kids the rest of the way. Can David Murphy generate enough to become a fourth outfielder? Would looking at Brandon Moss (Eastern League playoff MVP) be such a bad thing? Playing out the season leads into the Hot Stove League, and the Red Sox have plenty of work to do. An author in the Red Sox newsgroup noted that the Red Sox have only three players with above average OPS, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis, with Wily Mo Pena qualifying with limited at bats. Conversely, the AL East Champion had seven. And all media people can talk about is jettison...

Every day belongs to history, but not every day feels 'historic'. Last night David Ortiz, a Twins' castoff, tied the Red Sox single season home run record (50) of Jimmy Foxx, against the Twins. Tonight Ortiz eclipsed Foxx, slugging his record-breaker against the best pitcher in the AL, Johann Santana. Ortiz shot reminded me of the blasts Harmon Killebrew hit, carrying almost endlessly courtesy of backspin, this one landing behind the Red Sox bullpen. Later, the Sox fan favorite clubbed his fifty-second homer to punctuate the achievement. The 2006 season had become what might have been, instead of what we hoped it would become. An All-Star start turned into a second half nightmare. Inconsistency, injury and the serious illness of promising lefthander Jon Lester, made us pine for another time. Those of us on the wrong side of fifty have seen great sluggers of Red Sox history grace Fenway Park. I'm not quite old enough to remember Ted Williams swing in person, but his 521 ...

Has the Nation gone soft? Have our collective weakness atrophied that limbic enmity reserved for the Bronx Bombers? Is the theory that depression arises from anger turned inward become reality? The four game 'Armageddon' against the Yankees has become the equivalent of spring training, not even worthy of traditional 'salary drive' play. The reality show called "MLB" has kicked the Red Sox off the island. Maybe they swallowed too much sea water, or sprained their collective ankles, or just didn't want it enough. Partitioning the blame hasn't become the sport du jour, as, mercifully, it's football season. What went wrong? Maybe the season was doomed from the start, doomed by overconfidence in a "geriatric" pitching staff, overreliance on promising but inexperienced youth, and offensive holes that revealed themselves in a discouragingly narrow 'Pythagorean' equation, manifested as an inadequate run differential. Huh? The Red Sox won ...

Jon Papelbon and the Red Sox have elected to 'shut down' the Red Sox righthanded reliever and closer in a precautionary move as the Sox have fallen out of contention for the Wild Card spot. Papelbon, holder of the Red Sox rookie record for saves and a dominant closer for much of the season looks forward to coming back as a starter next season. The Red Sox had many problems down the stretch, amidst poor pitching, injuries and illness, and a lack of offense, particularly with injuries to Manny Ramirez, inconsistency from the lead off spot, and aside from David Ortiz, almost no clutch hitting. Can the Sea Dogs' quest for an Eastern League title against Akron hold your interest while the Sox go down like a lead anchor? No, I didn't think so. Even the rivalry series with the Yankees has become something of a joke, with back to back day-night doubleheaders. I hope that all loyal Sox fans have laid in a heavy supply of caffeine to watch these games. Perhaps as bad as the near ...

The lightweight Kansas City Royals came into town, the same Royals who rarely win on the road, and mounted a ninth inning counter-offensive to defeat the Sox, 10-9. KC had a comfortable 8-3 lead entering the bottom of the ninth before Jason Varitek rifled his twefth roundtripper of the season into the pen, and David Ortiz stroked two out lightning into left to put the Sox up. An inspirational comeback victory, right? Unfortunately, sans Jonathan Papelbon (yes, subluxed would be a good Scrabble word), the bullpen couldn't hold it. After Manny Delcarmen got touched for three runs by KC, Mike Timlin surrendered a pair of Royal pains in the ninth to give the cellar-dwellers the win. Adding insult to injury, former Sox hurler Joe Nelson got the save. Last night's debacle provided a microcosm of the late season action. Inconsistent pitching, often inconsistent hitting, and a painful loss, rendered less important by the antecedent Sox collapse. I don't think that the Sox should be...

The Red Sox entertain the Wild Card pursuing Chicago White Sox tonight at Fenway Park . The Chisox are locked in a struggle with the Minnesota Twins for the final AL playoff spot. Along with the four dollar waters, the Sox must be handing out 'No-Doze' and Jolt Cola. But why? They could probably have paid for a new 'Sleep Laboratory' to help finance whatever the coming offseason seating addition will be. Tonight's action generated so much excitement that they not only showed a concession contractor asleep in the runway, they had sideline announcer Tina Cervasio wake him up and interview him. At least when Sean McDonough was the announcer, they had the courtesy or humility to flash an 'Inane Banter' bulletin. Aside from the 'wicked' beating the White Sox have dished out, we've learned a lot. Jose Contreras has one of the best forkballs in baseball. If I had a nickel for every time they've told us, I could retire. Jerry Remy will be at ...