Red Sox Reality Check

Click charts to ENLARGE. Best viewed in FIREFOX. With Coco Crisp out with a thumb injury, and Joel Pineiro headed to the DL, the Red Sox called up 23 year-old centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to play centerfield. Ellsbury contributed an infield single in his second plate appearance but had a ball hit off the centerfield wall bounce over his head. No damage as it didn't impact the ultimate scoring. Ellsbury, the Sox top 2005 pick and number-one rated prospect coming into 2007, was one of Theo Epstein's success stories to date. Meanwhile, Jon Lester got a win with five innings of two run baseball for Pawtucket, and Clay Buchholz worked five scoreless innings for Portland tonight. Will Buchholz (1.69 ERA) move up to Pawtucket? Pedestrian. Mundane. Ordinary. Uninspiring. None of the seasons above shout out, "take me". Well, the statistics above belong to Nomar Garciaparra, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, and Bronson Arroyo. Yes, these represent snapshots, not finished pro...

Recent Boston sports action reminds me of a joke I heard the other night. "Airport security has taken it to the next level. I get ready to board the flight, and the screener says, 'I've got good news and bad news. The good news is that you may board immediately. The bad news is that your prostate is enlarged'. " The Red Sox (good news) returned to Fenway Park (good), got outstanding pitching (good), didn't hit (bad), but won anyway 2-1 (good). Don and Jerry (good) kept us distracted with inane banter about ballpark dating episodes (bad). At least Jerry didn't display his footwear (good), although I missed part of the game watching Man Versus Wild (very good). On the other hand, the Celtics (bad) botched another opportunity known as the NBA Draft (good). In a bizarre plot to strengthen franchises close to his western home, Ainge once again dumped the high draft choice (bad) for an All-Star (good) with two bad ankles (bad), who knew God's dog as a puppy...

If the Red Sox brass pays attention, they have learned a few issues existing on the team right now: 1. Problems against left-handed pitching 2. Right handed power 3. Offense on the road 4. Inconsistency from Tim Wakefield 4b. A back up catcher designed only for Tim Wakefield 5. The Lugo struggles continue 6. The fourth outfielder question. Can the Weapon of Mass Production do it? Yes, Red Sox fans will complain about anything and everything, but Sox fans have concerns about a post-Interleague Play hangover against 'real' baseball teams.

Nobody wants Julio Lugo to succeed more than Red Sox fans. Heck, we'd love him to be MVP. And nobody will put more pressure on a struggling player to perform, than the player. Does money increase the pressure? Maybe. If you're putting on a stock trade controlling 100 shares of something, it's different than owning 5000 shares. But when you're facing a Johan Santana slider, you're not thinking about your next paycheck. I hate West Coast trips. At least I know enough to get some sleep, and don't stay up for the whole game anymore. Rarely. Paul Pierce wants a veteran binky. Well, Paul, last time I checked, your position is swing guard, not GM. You aren't going to win a championship with the team with Kevin Garnett, with the major young talent traded. Should you express your preference? Absolutely, from a first amendment perspective. If Danny Ainge listens, however, then to paraphrase Bobby Knight, "if you listen to the knuckleheads in the stands (bench), t...

Some players live on the expensive fringe of the major leagues. With current compensation high, few players leave at the top of their game. Who can afford to leave millions on the table? Having allowed 5 home runs and 23 hits in 16 innings, this good soldier is done . The timeline has finally caught up with Mike Timlin. Timlin and his family have delivered quality, dignified professionalism to the Red Sox and the Boston community, but he is now relegated to mop-up duty, and simply cannot be trusted in close games. Although he hasn't lost much off the fastball, he has the worst kind of wildness, wild in the strike zone, the kind of mistake pitches that turn into runs. Thanks for the memories.

Call me sentimental. My children saw the Red Sox win a World Series without waiting fifty years. Okay, so that doesn't apply to Conor, who's an Orioles fan, falling on hard times. Stoneham, vetoing a property tax override, has dismantled the entire athletic department. Local resident and Stoneham AD Mike Lahiff, has departed for another AD job, and as for the Stoneham children, no soup for them... Growing up with the Red Sox, I followed all the local teams (the Bruins weren't dreck) and competed against the area high school teams, and even played on the Stoneham Legion baseball team. Stoneham had a terrific baseball team, a State Championship winner, with Bill Walczak, Carl Smith, Jim Haugh and others. They had some terrific hoopsters including Joe Donahue and Phil McLaughlin on an undefeated team. Stoneham's boys' soccer team won championships. Olympic skater Nancy Kerrigan hails from Stoneham. Now they have nothing. Why? Some communities, like Stoneham, have mini...

The Sox went to beautiful San Diego, and my daughter's college roommate Meghan and her father got a bit of a disappointment as the Sox beat the locals. The Padres had their throwback Civil Defense helmets on, and the Sox the haze grey unis from the 1980s. For the statistically inclined, Baseball Prospectus' Monte Carlo simulator pegs the Sox at having a 98% chance of making the playoffs. The Sox remain with the best record in baseball, and a number of players have flown under the radar. Most notably, Kevin Youkilis remains with David Ortiz among the top five in the Sagarin Rankings for AL hitters. Daisuke Matsuzaka clocks in tied for 4th in AL wins, aided by both better pitching lately and the 7th leading Run Support in the League. He also falls among the league leaders in the 'Rickey' stats, a reflection of pitching power, (innings pitched plus strikeouts) less (hits plus walks plus hit batsman). Manny Ramirez has moved his average up to .304, leads the Red Sox in ga...

Maybe a few of you out there are old enough to remember better than I. And maybe some of you are young enough to remember better. Today some of the Sox talk discussion focused on Little League, and how every player will get a chance to play the different positions. Growing up Red Sox meant a rite of passage, the Green Monster, 37 feet and the net 23 feet above. Yaz, Tony C, Boomer, Lonborg, Radatz, and too many forgettable pitchers. Right field . "Where you put the little kid" who was either too young, or too small, or too inexperienced to have a position at all. Everyone knows that you can't HIDE a player, no matter where you put them. Sure Henry Aaron, Clemente, and Kaline played right field. What did that have to do with a pickup game? Rocky Colavito wasn't telling us how important right field was, and Dwight Evans must have been playing Little League then. Pickup games . The Shell Station near Dolbeare School had a fence in center field, about 300 feet away, that...

Just as ESPN.com has power ratings, so 'Reality Check' will issue some power ratings, which of course change over the marathon of the baseball season. Power Ratings reflect not only the full body of work of the pitcher, but recent performances. What they do not reflect are run support, media friendliness, or salary. Mike Greenwell need not apply. 1. Josh Beckett- All-Star caliber stuff and performance 2. Jonathan Papelbon - smoke 'em if you got 'em 3. Daisuke Matsuzaka - power growing, like The Transformers 4. Curt Schilling - sometimes dominating, but high percentage stuff occurring less often 4b. Hideki Okajimi - Everything's just okey-dokey for the little lefty 6. Julian Tavarez - usually gives you six plus with two or three runs nowadays (value rising) 7. Tim Wakefield - you never know what he'll give you, and the Yankees are his daddy (falling) 8. Javier Lopez - the LOOGY is getting the job done, more often than not 9. Kyle Snyder - would be the equivalent ...

Everyone wants those slick foreign imports, and the Red Sox were no exception. They opened the checkbook, and so far, I think they got what they expected. Daisuke Matsuzaka delivered his eighth win of the season yesterday, lowering his E.R.A. to 4.18 with seven shutout innings against Barry Bonds and the Giants. Let's review the Matsuzaka record, amidst a transition to the Hitters' League from Japanese baseball. Eight wins, tied for fourth in the AL Ninety-three strikeouts, fifth in the AL Three losses where he surrendered three runs or less A 4.18 E.R.A. 28th in the AL Strikeout to walk ratio of over three; K/BB ratio predicts future E.R.A. better than previous E.R.A. itself Last three games, 20 innings, 14 hits, 4 runs, 25 strikeouts, 9 walks, E.R.A. 1.80 Matsuzaka has helped pitch the Sox to an 8 1/2 game lead, and has done so with grace, humility, and lately very little run support. What Sox fans and AL hitters have yet to see the complete package of full command and contro...

The Red Sox put up little resistance tonight, losing to an another anonymous lefthander, as Josh Beckett absorbed his first defeat of the season. Not just the weather has turned cold in June. The spinning wheel dart board trotted out yet another lineup du jour, this one headed by J. D. Drew, taking a merciless beating from Fenway leatherlungs. But it's not all Drew, as much of the lineup has gone sour, with the well-documented struggles of Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp. It's as though the poisoned Big Apple got fed to the team. Meanwhile in Pawtucket, Jacoby Ellsbury has two hit games in five of the past six, going 10-25 with two walks, four stolen bases, and three extra base hits. Last year the Sox delivered a beatdown to the NL before collapsing in the second half en route to a third place finish. Whether the Sox need an official bat-burning, prayers to Jobu, or another untraditional ritual to exorcise the offensive malaise, they definitely need something. The only energy in the ...

I feel as though I'm reaching into the Gerry Spence How to Argue and Win Every Time trickbag, but let's critically examine Julio Lugo's production in 2007. I won't insult anyone's argument by saying that Lugo should hit leadoff or deserve any All-Star considerations. Let's just look at the facts. First, here's the Baseball Reference overview . Nobody expected a .215/.274/.322/.589 season to this point. Ranked by OPS, Lugo is last among AL shortstops . He is 9th when examined by the Sabermetric Runs Created . Not great, especially when adjusted for salary. He is eighth in runs scored and tied for fifth with Miguel Tejada in RBI. Ranked by the sum or runs scored and runs batted in, he ranks seventh among qualifiers (plate appearances). Among AL shortstops he ranks fifth in fielding percentage (.969), eighth in range factor (PO and Assists divided by innings), and eighth in zone rating (The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive ...

The knuckleball's unpredictability dominates its description. We hear the different discussions of hitting it, "when it's high, let it fly" and how to catch it, "let it stop rolling and pick it up." And we know from personal and observational experience that it behaves most viciously when the wind is in the pitcher's face. And as much as Tim Wakefield has struggled recently, his E.R.A. still fell to 3.92 with an eight-inning one run performance tonight. Doug Mirabelli deserves props for handling the flutterball in all its glory tonight, especially dealing with it with a man on third, although the Rockies brought in the tying run. The Rockies, what an alphabet soup of players they have. Historically they've played like Tarzan at home and Jane on the road, but they got outstanding pitching tonight. Papelbon. Tonight he performed like a mixture of King Kong and Darth Vader, with his stare down only exceeded by his heater, which touched 98. Justin Verlan...

Unfortunately for the DH situation, the All-Star balloting gets complicated, but let's see if we can parse the data and come up with an appropriate roster I will presume 10 pitchers and 20 position players SP BECKETT SP MECHE SP VERLANDER SP BEDARD SP SEBATHIA SP HAREN SP SHIELDS SP SANTANA RP JENKS RP F. RODRIGUEZ We first have to consider 'distribution" BAL BEDARD BOS ORTIZ, RAMIREZ, BECKETT NY CANO, POSADA, JETER, A-ROD TAM SHIELDS, UPTON TOR HILL CHI JENKS CLE SABATHIA, SIZEMORE, PERALTA DET ORDONEZ, GRANDERSON, POLANCO, VERLANDER KC MECHE MIN SANTANA, MORNEAU CAL GUERRERO, F. RODRIGUEZ, CABRERA OAK SWISHER, HAREN SEA JOHJIMA, ICHIRO TEX TEIXIERA Yes, controversies always arise. Mariano Rivera doesn't get a lifetime achievement award this year. Manny Ramirez might not deserve it on production, but will likely get voted in. Cano gets voted in but doesn't deserve it at second. Baltimore has to place either Jeremy Guthrie or Erik Bedard on the tea...

40 years after Billy Rohr's near n0-no, Curt Schilling duplicated Rohr's performance with 26 outs of no hit ball before Shannon Stewart lined a first-pitch fastball into right for a single. Forty years ago Elston Howard broke Sox' fans' hearts with a ninth inning single dumped in front of Tony C. Schilling righted the ship to get the tough Mark Ellis to foul out to end the game. The Sox didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball, however, getting only a first-inning homer (11) from Big Papi to drive the offense. Speaking of offensive, the LA County Sherriff released Paris Hilton after five days of custody, sending her home with an ankle bracelet. Undoubtedly, Paris is bemoaning having to miss all that free detention facility room and board, probably having to rough it on caviar and champagne in her mansion. Allegedly she was released for health reasons, presumably because she was driving everyone in the LA police crazy. The Red Sox drafted Washington southpaw Nick H...

West Coast trips have always had special meaning for me. Listening to my mother's transistor radio, with Dean Chance spinning his magic for the Los Angeles Angels, and now insomniac nights with the Sox in the Oakland Mausoleum, or McAfee or whatever it is. Oakland doesn't have a lot of great memories for Sox fans. There was the playoff comeback (2003?) and just not a lot of great games there. The foul territory never seems to end. They do present some 'mirror' problems with their Moneyball players like Nick Swisher, although I'm not a big fan of the Prince Valiant look. Maybe I'm just jealous of youth, good looks, money, and hair. Tim Wakefield goes tonight for the Sox, and it's trick or treat. With his last three outings with an ERA of over 10 and the inability to find the zone with a dog and a cane, you have to feel badly for Wakefield. He's always been streaky, and if anyone can stick with someone during a bad streak, that's Francona. Will Jon Les...

A-Rod certainly got the last laugh last night, as Big Rod used his Big Stick to deliver the game winning home run. Of course, A-Rod has his own fan site, too . Like Colbert's Report, we'll have our own word today, SCHADENFREUDE.

Please explain to me the frequency with which I have to watch Jack Welch, former General Electric CEO, on the Red Sox pregame show? Neither I nor Jack Welch resemble Robert Redford, and Welch's grating voice won't displace an announcer from Bangor to Block Island. His professional or personal credentials aside, does Jack have pictures of Red Sox or NESN management? Is there a reason why the Sox have to ingratiate themselves to this long-time fan? Has anyone heard or seen Welch offer one insight into either the Red Sox or baseball? Now I can think of a thousand reasons why Jack Welch would want to be on television, and 999 of them involve an insatiable ego. But unless Welch wants to offer up an occasional tidbit of news or information, tell NESN management, "just say no." What would I like to see more of on Red Sox broadcasts? I'd like to see more 'baseball stories', not lurid hotel stories of the Ball Four vintage, but simple war stories that guys like R...

I don't know about the rest of you, but it's hard for me to listen to Buck and McCarver. Admittedly, most baseball fans couldn't fill three hours of 'action' with intelligent commentary. And the commentators haven't avoided the Stray Rod controversy, although they haven't tackled the broader issue - how many major league ballplayers have the same tendencies but have remained cloaked in obscurity? But what about the ridiculous observations, that Scott Proctor wasn't throwing at Kevin Youkilis? Proctor has already served time for one suspension this year, and one can only guess that a baseball version of the Invisible Hand saved Proctor from a second trip to the penalty box. In fact, these skirmishes present the best argument against the DH. Accountability rears its head, literally, in the batter's box. How 'tough' would baseball's principal offenders be if they feared for their careers? As for Melky Cabrera being a defensive talent, didn...

Reggie Smith (actually like Yaz, I believe his first name was Carl) appeared in the booth with Don and Jerry, bringing back a lot of old memories. Although Smith started the season at second, he became the everyday centerfielder for the Impossible Dream Sox. What are my Reggie Smith memories? (CLICK ON BOX TO ENLARGE) First, he wore number 7, which I remember because that was my sister's birthday (7/7) Second, Reggie had a great arm, one of the best ever. I saw him throw out Dave McNally on an attempted sacrifice fly just in front of the 379 mark. I also heard that in a throwing contest with Yaz from the Sox dugout, Yaz barely reached the left field wall. Reggie pegged a seed into the screen! But my biggest Reggie memory is his 'player comparison'. I'm not saying that the two players are the same, although both were outfielders, both won Gold Gloves, and both played in the World Series. If you don't remember Reggie as being that good, consider that ...