Red Sox Reality Check

The Red Sox have created flexibility this winter and a fair degree of media silliness. Let's examine some flexibility and silliness. Dan Shaughnessy accused management of parsimonious behavior suggesting that the Sox were trying to rebuild on the cheap. "Nothing easier than spending somebody else's money, eh?" Silliness. The Sox acquire outfielder Mike Cameron. Exit stage left, Jason Bay. As mentioned before, the "Winner's Curse" means overpaying, just because other people are bidding for merchandise. We all recognize that in an industry where the AVERAGE salary (not just AVERAGE player) gets around three million dollars, there's a lot of overpaying. Cameron has always been a terrific defender, has some pop, and strikes out a lot. It's what you're doing when you don't strike out that counts. Flexibility. Here's the top 20 career list in strikeouts...some pretty good players on the list. Casey Kelly is highly regarded throughout baseba...

As terrific as Roy Halladay is, does he merit something approaching 20 million dollars annually, and the loss of several top prospects, e.g. Buchholz and Kelly? If I'm ownership, I can't go in that direction. Yes the Sox need a right-handed bat, and there are a few directions there, including Adrian Beltre. Whether Mike Lowell can handle the full load next year can't be known to Sox fans, and Beltre has considerable pop in his bat. The Sox are rumored to want to lock up V-Mart heading into his contract year. Jason Bay? The news all seems negative, from money to location, and J-Bay looks like he's earned a Godfather contract, although the 5-6 week stretch of distress against breaking stuff away mid-season gives me concerns. Among the possible pitchers, the best 'bargain' could be Justin Duchscherer, a former Sox farmhand, who has had health issues. Sure, you have the tantalizing Rich Harden, he of the DL, and Ben Sheets, ditto. Reportedly, Brad Penny has found a ...

Whatever we might think about the Red Sox, they aren't cheap. But in the baseball landscape, you have two currencies, players and greenbacks. The Sox have a variety of intriguing bargaining chips (relatively low-salaried players under extended obligation) including Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, and more. If we use the commodity business as a model, then the Sox have a certain 'book value', budgeted salary plus the "proven reserves" model used in mining. Of course, the proven reserves aren't so proven, but if they are assigned a 'value', trading them for high-salaried players depletes your future in both salary obligation AND in projected value. In other words, mortgaging your farm system to acquire 'expensive' stars makes you pay twice. For the Yankees, the bottomless money pit, spending 29 percent of free agent dollars in the past couple of seasons (per an ESPN article), that's simply business as ...

You should never be in a hurry to make a poor choice. And currently, baseball's labor pool lives in the world of Buyer's Remorse, where generally ownership overpays for mediocrity. Example: Marco Scutaro , a player whose price is at its peak, but what of value. Scutaro scored 100 runs and had twelve homers last season. He had NEVER hit double digit homers and never scored more than 52 runs in a season until the previous year (76). At best, I suspect the Sox view him as a placeholder until the anointed one, Jose Iglesias comes on scene. Meanwhile, shortstop remains the black hole of productivity and cost. Scutaro's career OPS is .721. Chrissakes, we are not talking about a great player. Lou Merloni had a career OPS of .716. Scutaro is Lou Merloni coming off an excellent season, a one-year wonder. Period. Of course, we have entered the Tug Hulett era. Does that make you feel any better? I want to throw up in my mouth over both of the above.

The New York Yankees got their 27th championship, a magical combination of glory and greenbacks, and the Red Sox have Jeremy Hermida. So, we're all feeling a lot better. The Sox seem destined for the poorhouse it seems, with Josh Beckett only a year away from free agency, Jason Bay suddenly the defensive talent of say, Mike Greenwell, and John Henry doing a chopshop job on his investment company. Maybe they can reclaim the Dunkin Dugout seats. We'll find out soon whether it was really Brad Mills who broke the curse, or whether the Sox can fill the role of bench coach with some combination of Stephen Hawking and Dr. Tom Hanson . Theo, you really ought to think about it. What we've learned in the offseason is how great J.D. Drew really is (I thought his season more than passable, although the Win Shares/dollar might be less so). If Win Shares mean something, then we should acknowledge that Drew was an estimated SIXTH in the AL at his position . We found out that Rocco Baldel...

What post-mortem examination do the 2009 Red Sox deserve? The simplest and most deserving explanation follows that the Red Sox simply went as far as they deserved. A team created to be balanced failed to show balance...underachieving on the road, including a dismal road show in Anaheim. Overall the team went 95-67, but let's look inside the numbers. They won 16 of 18 games against the Orioles, the worst team in MLB They won 7 of 9 games from the next worse Indians Therefore of their 28 games over .500, 19 came from just two teams 7 teams other than Boston had winning records, New York, Tampa, Minnesota, Detroit, Los Angeles, Texas, and Seattle The Sox split with the Yankees and Rays, and had a winning record against only two teams with winning records (Detroit and Minnesota). In other words, the Sox couldn't beat good teams consistently All of which brings us to why they're working on their handicap instead of freezing to death playing baseball. Why can't the team perfo...

How much psychic energy should we expend worrying about the Sox these days? Not so much. Just as in the NFL, you have to make the playoffs, then we'll start to worry. The Sox have four starters pitching well into the playoffs, and the deepest bullpen. What SHOULD we care about? Jason Varitek. The Captain's offense has disappeared in the second half and everyone on the opposition looks like Jacoby Ellsbury. Manny Delcarmen. This looked like it would be Delcarmen's breakout season, until recently when he's struggled mightily. Still with the combination of Papelbon, Wagner, Bard, Okajima, Ramirez, and Saito ahead of him, Terry Francona has plenty of options. Road worriers. The Sox haven't shown much on the road recently, even splitting a pair in Kansas City. Fortune 500. The old deal about guys making a fortune and playing .500 ball...or less against good teams. That's what the playoffs are about, showing that you can beat the good teams. Coaching defections? Shoul...

I'm rooting for Dice-K...he's a proud guy and a fierce competitor. A healthy productive Dice gives the Sox a better chance to win the big one. Yankee fans I'm talking to are not showing the bluster and confidence befitting their tradition. In fact, seeds of doubt creep into the Bomber Brains. Has the curse mentality become part of their collective psyche? We can only hope. The MLB stolen base title race comes down to three. Terry Francona's Sox managerial winning percentage? .582. They showed that Sciosia's Angels' record was .555. The former Sox pitcher who is 41st all-time in pitching wins? Jamie Moyer, of course. If Bill Belichick were a baseball manager, who would he be? Really. To what would you attribute the Sox success? Fielding percentage, 5th in AL. ERA, 4th in the AL. Runs scored, 3rd. Balance. I saw an autographed poster recently with Varitek and his two recent no-hit pitchers, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. The others? Derek Lowe and Hideo Nomo, methi...

John Henry, not Jon Lester! Frankly, I wish the owner would share his thought on the US dollar, lumber, natural gas, and other commodities instead of the Red Sox. Brad Penny and John Smoltz sure look better in AAA...oh, the National League. Buchholz, as of now, still has the best 'swing and miss' stuff on the team. Yes, I noticed that Alex Gonzalez has yet to walk for the Sox. "You can't walk off the island." Heck, my wife knew that. Intrigue in the front office. Did the Sox Fenway makeover maven get sandbagged? Can't hardly believe I care about that. Will Pedroia climb to .300 by the end of the season? Can Jacoby Ellsbury be the first Red Sox stolen base champ in a long, long time? Heidi or Tina? Maryann or Ginger? If V-Mart is the personal catcher for Lester and Buchholz, doesn't that change the 'conventional wisdom' about the contribution of Jason Varitek? Jacoby Ellsbury has his OBP up to .350 and still isn't in the top 20 in runs scored. T...

The Red Sox brought the kryptonite to Tampa taking two of three. Since the Devil Rays became the Rays, hasn't the doormat factor disappeared. Jonathan Papelbon started having some 'clean' innings. Good for him, with MLB hurting him in the pocketbook for 'slow play'. Tonight's game has the two starters (Byrd/Garcia) with the worst fastballs among non-knuckleballers? It reminds me of pitching in an adult baseball league. If I were a hitter, I'd want to hit against me. J.D. Drew has had a pretty good season, or maybe a pretty good month saved his season. Drews August numbers? .329/.449/.644/1.093. Not too shabby. Why do pitchers throw Jason Bay fastballs? Second in OPS in the AL...Mr. Kevin Youkilis. Yankee fans seem to have flawed memories. Some view Paul O'Neill as Mr. Congeniality...while some of us remember him as the "Watercooler Terminator" Dave Roberts with the "ambush" strategy. A classic. Victor Martinez seems like an even bette...

The Red Sox always seem to inspire some extra emotion and controversy, and nothing changed today. The Sox acquired former closer Billy Wagner from the Mets, likely guaranteeing themselves a pair of first round compensation picks if nothing else. After dropping two of three to the Yankees, the Sox rebounded with an ugly win over the Pale Hose last night and are battling ugly again tonight. Jacoby Ellsbury set the team record for steals; somehow I expected a Hendersonesque holding up the bag...fortunately we didn't see that. Jon Lester pitched 6 2/3rds pretty good innings, allowing three runs, the last two on a wild pitch strikeout and a liner off Mike Lowell's outstretched glove. Unfortunate. On the other hand, Victor Martinez delivered a pinch single to score Nick Green, pinch-running for Jason Varitek who had doubled. More on Wagner...you can never have too many quality arms on the staff, and Wagner adds another option against the tough lefties like Matsui and Pena down the st...

I can look at Josh and think of 'better days".

Congratulations to the Pedroias, joy into their lives. Peter Gammons correctly noted last year (I think), that a lot of 30-something ballplayers would start to look old (absent PEDs). That prediction has come spot on. What's a pitcher's out pitch? Does he have a swing and miss pitch? Buchholz may have the most swing and miss pitches on the staff. Not to say that Beckett and Lester can't make you miss... If Victor Martinez is the cause of Beckett getting lit up last night, then is the cause of Buchholz pitching well tonight? Maybe Alex Gonzalez doesn't have his old range, but he still looks pretty good out there. Maybe Jason Varitek is VERY banged up. A .505 OPS post All-Star break would bang me up. I keep waiting for Ellsbury to eclipse Tommy Harper's base theft record. Could be getting really close. Alex Rios to the White Sox for nothing...except tons of dough. Maybe Toronto ends up the winner on that deal. Jonathan Papelbon has a career WHIP ratio of 1, and this s...

D.J. Gallo with a brilliant satire on Bill Belichick .

The Red Sox recovered from a disastrous road trip through Tampa and the Bronx, returning to win three of four from Detroit. The Sox face the Rangers tonight, locked in a wild card battle, not to concede the divisional race. Unfortunately, the road has been Kryptonite for the Sox this season, with the Sox 38-18 at home and 27-31 away from Fenway Park. Relative to some of the teams they face, particularly Tampa, the Red Sox seem to have less athleticism and more age among the position players. Jason Varitek to put it politely is not in the prime of his career, and the consistent availability and production from J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, and David Ortiz certainly have declined. Naturally, Ortiz homers just after I write this sentence. It's no different for major leaguers than aging physicians (like me). When I recently worked seven days a week for several months, I'm feeling it. Big time. And I'm not doing it out in the heat. When does experience outweigh age-related decline? B...

Six games against the Red Sox divisional rivals beckoned, and the Sox have simply spit the bit, with five consecutive losses, including two bitter extra innings defeats. The Sox offense has disappeared, with eight hits and no runs in the past twenty-four innings of futility. Fans old enough to remember 1978, Bobby Sprowl, and the Boston Massacre have witnessed the biggest collapse in thirty-one years. David Ortiz and the steroid fiasco simply become a sideshow, with the center ring futility focused not on management failures, but simply underperformance under the bright lights. As fans, we ask does Jason Bay have not only a troublesome hamstring but a hole for breaking stuff away that opponents finally found as his Achilles heel? Will J.D. Drew ever find his stroke again? Is Mike Lowell finally succumbing to Father Time? The Sox appear in dire need of a catalyst to awaken a team that is pressing, literally on life support in the divisional race. The start pitching, decimated by injurie...

Did anyone doubt that Red Sox players would eventually appear on "The List"? We can diminish the 'cheating' aspect because we root for laundry, but our bitterness over a pair of Jason Giambi homers in the ALCS softens when we realize that Red Sox hitters had juiced, too. We may never know who 'just did it' and who didn't, although we all harbored suspicions over bulked up cover boys and supercharged homer production and slugging percentage from guys who hadn't produced oversized numbers. MLB and its players union never really wanted the genie let out of the bottle. Owners raked in the dough from fannies in the seats, players' salaries skyrocketed, and the game's popularity soared. When does exposing the man behind the curtain ever seem the thing to do? High profile hearings embarrassing stars like Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire put the Commissioner and his minions on notice that public airing of needle-stained laundry didn't play nearly a...

The Sox-Orioles contest produced not only a victory but signs of improved energy. Some story lines both overt and under the radar: Kevin Youkilis with 4 hits and consecutive homer games Victor (V-Mart) Martinez with his first Sox appearance, RBI, and standing ovation Dustin Pedroia with a first inning homer Josh Beckett gets his MLB leading 13th win Josh Reddick showed contact and power with a pair of doubles in his MLB start Daniel Bard gives another dominant relief appearance with 2 strikeouts in the ninth in a non-save situation; Bard has evolved into the number two option in the pen The Sox turned three double plays to shutout the O's The downside? J.D. Drew and now Jason Bay with hamstring tweaks Sox fans seemed everywhere in Camden Yards as Fenway South proved friendly Jacoby Ellsbury continued his outperformance with another multihit game and 48th stolen base as he closes in on the Sox record of 54 by Tommy Harper The Sox had delivered more ennui than excitement recently and...

Teams win baseball games at the intersection of run generation and run prevention. Management decided that run generation offered a more "buyable" commodity than run prevention. The Sox obtained Victor Martinez at a lower base price (Justin Masterson and Nick Hagadone) than obtaining Roy Halladay for Buchholz, Bard, and more. Red Sox Nation always embraces now over the future, and Theo Epstein balanced the opportunity with his calculus of future value. Meanwhile, on the field, John Smoltz continues to struggle. Do we have an aging veteran, recovering from surgery who can turn it around or have his skills abated beyond the point of no return? The concept of "never enough pitching" again comes true with Beckett, Lester and pray for bad weather, with injuries to Wakefield and Matsuzaka, coin-flip Penny, the enigma Buchholz, and Cy Old. Adam, we barely knew ye. Goodby Adam, hello Casey Kotchman. Maybe Kotchman's return to the AL will help. He's a prototypical R...

As currently constituted, do the Red Sox have the horses to get to the World Series? Of course, an equally legitimate question remains, can the Sox hold off the Rays and get to the playoffs? Seriously. Anyone watching the team recently understands the questions. In the outfield, Jacoby Ellsbury had a good series against lowly Baltimore after going one for the road trip. Jason Bay and J.D. Drew have struggled mightily; that's baseball. In the infield, the hitting remains suspect, as while the Rangers may have swine flu, the Sox have the pine flew. Again, it can turn around...perhaps people have too many eyes over their shoulders with the trade deadline approaching, rather than on the ball. Some (like Peter Gammons), say the clubs overvalue their prospects. Perhaps, but one can't easily dismiss the lure of low-salaried talent to most of the MLB 'have-nots'. The Sox bullpen remains its biggest constant, the biggest change being the emergence of Daniel Bard as the Creature ...

Statistics don't lie. Or do they? The Sox haven't looked like the same team since the All-Star break, going on offensive holiday. Even for the best baseball teams, losing comes as no stranger. A sixty percent winning percentage translates to 97 wins in the baseball marathon, and currently only the Dodgers and the Yankees have eclipsed that .600 mark. If we (incorrectly) assumed that each game had the same (forty percent) chance of a loss for the best teams, then a five game losing streak would occur (.4 x .4 x .4 x .4 x .4) or 1% of the time over any five game period. And when you consider the number of teams playing and the length of the season, it's easy to see why losing streaks occur so often. Nobody thinks that the Red Sox forgot how to hit, but conversely well, your lying eyes didn't deceive you either. Both the "big guns" and the rest of the lineup wasn't operating at a high efficiency level. We don't have invoke Newtonian physics to understand ...

Nobody said that statistics constitute the sole criteria for determining either value or selection to the All-Star team. Consider the following table: WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) reflects the pitcher's ability to prevent baserunners from reaching. K/BB (strikeout to walk ratio) tends to predict future ERA even better than current ERA. More dominant pitchers tend to have low WHIP ratios and higher K/BB ratios. Two of the above pitchers achieved All-Star selections on the 2009 American League squad. Which two? Pitcher A ties for the most innings, has the best K/BB ratio and an ERA sub 4. He doesn't make the team. Pitcher D with a K/BB ratio well under 2 and an ERA almost half a run higher does. Pitcher A, Jon Lester. Pitcher B, Josh Beckett. Pitcher C, Brad Penny. Pitcher D, Tim Wakefield. There are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain.

Major League Baseball announced the All-Star selections today, an amalgam of selections among fans, players, and managers. Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay got voted onto the team. Pedroia, the reigning MVP, checks in statistically behind Ian Kinsler and Aaron Hill, but the feisty second baseman got the love. Bay, newly minted as a US citizen, gets the nod in left. Player voting brought Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon to the AL pitching staff, and manager selection added Kevin Youkilis and Tim Wakefield. Wakefield's selection is his first, during a remarkable career. Wakefield finished third in Cy Young voting in 1995 He is the Red Sox career start leader. Won ten games or more ten times. MLB career 140th in wins MLB active 7th in wins 71st all-time in strikeouts 35th active in adjusted ERA+ 7th all-time in most hit batsmen Has led the AL in both losses (15) and home runs allowed (35) in a season On two World Series winners Surrendered the walkoff homer in the ALCS championship game...

Baseball has the best of the All-Star games, although for me the game changed after interleague play. I'm not too concerned about how many Sox players get selected or not, although I'm sure that contractually some probably have All-Star bonus clauses. If you make ten million dollars a year, should you be rewarded additionally if you perform TO expectations? Hey, that's what contract negotiations represent. All that acknowledged, the Sox should focus on playing good baseball into the break. A strong homestand would help keep Tampa and Toronto in the rearview mirror. The Yankees are always the Jason Voorhees of the AL; you can never eliminate them. From an overall performance status, the 'best' players on the Sox have been Youkilis, Bay, Papelbon, and Beckett. A lot of players have exceeded expectations including Varitek, Green, and much of the bullpen. To an extent Jacoby Ellsbury has also improved, as he's no longer easily 'defeated' by the hard stuff in...

As we approach the All-Star break, maybe we can analyze the good, the bad, and the ugly about the 2009 Red Sox. The Good. Locking up Lester, Pedroia, and Lester was a key move by the Sox The Sox seem to have the key ingredient (pitching) to deal with the tectonic shift away from performance-enhancing drugs toward more speed and defense Jason Bay has proven himself to be an elite player, capable of beating up on the dogs and cats and the lions and tigers. The Red Sox bullpen is the best in their modern era. The front three of Beckett, Lester, and Penny give the Sox a chance to win 70 percent of their games...or more. Nick Green has far outperformed expectations. Jacoby Ellsbury continues to mature as a player, and is on pace to set a Red Sox stolen base record Jason Varitek has maintained his defensive skills and had a mean reversion to offensive productivity, although June wasn't his best Tim Wakefield, may he make the All-Star team, but maybe getting voted on by the fans would be ...

Baseball and life. Sometimes the season doesn't turn out the way you thought it would. As we approach the halfway point in the season, the Red Sox have the second best record in baseball. How the hell is that possible? David Ortiz has only recently begun to hit, while the offensive core of the team, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia has fallen off a bit lately. The only players who have outperformed expectations offensively are Jason Bay and Nick Green. Jason Varitek had a great start, and now the jury has gone out offensively. Among starting pitching, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny have overachieved, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have resumed their expected trajectory, and Daisuke Matsuzaka has suffered through any player's worst nightmare. The obvious answer becomes the excellence of the bullpen. They have held leads, closed victories, and allowed the team to stay close in others. Recently, with short starts, the bullpen has shown a little fraying around the edges. Management...

The manager's job never gets any easier, arbitrating among egos, streaks, the vicissitudes of baseball, and personal problems that we will never know. What affects a player, illness or injury, frustration, depression, or personal problems? How a player gets treated also depends on the alternatives? Consider the choices: Jason Varitek versus George Kottaras Daisuke Matsuzaka versus John Smoltz Julio Lugo versus Nick Green J.D. Drew versus Rocco Baldelli Each pairing has a 'starter' paired against a challenger. Let's avoid Matsuzaka for last... Jason Varitek handles the pitching staff and calling the game. His offense has exceeded last year's performance, but lately he too suffers from "the dwindles." His June numbers are .154/.298/.256/.554. Whatever he tried in April and May seems to have evaporated in June. His left-right statistical differential is huge. Nobody (as far as I know) screams, "sit the old man down". The alternative doesn't soun...

Not many thirteen inning baseball games can hold your attention, but the Sox-Phils marathon did tonight. The game had a number of highlights, twists, and turns, and hair-raising moments for the Hose. John Lester became the first Sox left-hander to have three consecutive ten strikeout games. We're including Babe Ruth here, Mel Parnell, Bruce Hurst, Bill Lee, and Rogelio Moret, too. Lester's brilliance got lost in the shuffle. Six Sox pitchers gave up five hits in thirteen innings. Dustin Pedroia went 0-7. David Ortiz played first, but won't win any Gold Gloves. Nick Green made a pretty 6-3 double play against the speedy Jimmy Rollins. Ramon Ramirez moved down the pecking order surrendering a ninth inning titanic game-tying homer to Ryan Howard. It happens. Dave Roberts noted (correctly) that the Sox had lost momentum and energy; the Sox promptly rallied. Justin Masterson surrendered (almost) the game-winning three run homer in the 12th. It was foul...by a hair. The Sox pushe...

Quick hits: John Lester was magnificent in a 2-hitter, with a perfect game for 6 1/3 innings. He had better stuff than he no-hit the Royals with last year, with a couple of different styles of curveball, the hard cutter, a turnover sinker, and touched 98 on the gun. He lowered his ERA to 5.06 with the complete game. Would the Sox consider realigning the rotation to have him pitch Thursday on four days rest against the Yankees? Jason Bay had a key 2-run RBI single after a lengthy at bat to break the game open in the fifth inning. David Ortiz hit the Pesky Pole for his 2nd dinger of the season and hit the ball hard a couple of times. Francona grabbed the big guy and encouraged him to take a recognition of the "Curtain Call". I'm sure Ortiz isn't looking for extra face time right now. Julio Lugo is frustrated with his playing time. Most Sox fans are equally frustrated by his playing time.

Anybody watching the Red Sox tonight has to wonder how long the Red Sox can stick with this formula... Julio Lugo gets no jump in either direction and clearly his inability to make plays at short hurts the team. Brad Penny wore the victim's hairshirt tonight and the frustration sits on his sleeve like a dank mist. Yes, Lugo sustained an injury, but if he can't get the job done, he must sit. Fielding aside, Lugo hasn't confused anyone with the 1983 Cal Ripken at the plate either. The Sox have contractual obligations to Lugo whether he rides the pine or wets the bed at short. Nick Green holds no fascination for me. Getting an everyday shortstop who makes plays should occupy Theo Epstein's thoughts 24/7. This has become unwatchable, a slow motion train wreck with your best friends aboard.

Julio Lugo. (crickets) Daisuke Matsuzaka tossed a vintage 'dental extraction' victory, throwing a million pitches in five innings for his first win. A bullpen parade featuring Delcarmen, Okajima, Ramirez and Papelbon iced the victory, although the Papelbonian ninth sweated out Sox fans, as he loaded the bases with none out before fanning the side. NAME GP GS W L Sv QS Hld IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA Pitcher A 24 0 2 0 0 0 8 23.1 14 6 2 9 24 9.26 0.0 0.99 2.31 Pitcher B 22 0 0 1 13 0 0 23.0 22 6 3 11 28 10.96 0.0 1.43 2.35 Obviously, pitcher B has a lot more saves, but Okajima (Pitcher A) has pretty good stats relative to Papelbon, who does it closing. David Ortiz...had the hat trick tonight...he didn't look quite as disconsolate though. Gerry Callahan 's axe required surgical removal from Ortiz before the game. The former Chelmsford gridiron legend did the ultimate hatchet job on Ortiz ...

"Chicks dig the long ball." Well, maybe it was just the synthetic testosterone. The Sox have proved a bit frustrating because they simply have failed (at times) to play the best fundamental baseball. The Minnesota series proves the point. The Sox have far more talent (and payroll than the Twins), yet the Twins' execution and solid play earned them a split. What's with all the hip labrum disease? Is this something newly found (Lowell, A-Rod, Delgado and more) or a new phenomenon? Hooray for Jacoby Ellsbury's working to hit the ball on the ground/line drives instead of homerun swings for popups. Can we find some superior fielding shortstop like A-Gonzo? Maybe Lester and Beckett have found the answer. No substitute for a live arm, right Daniel Bard? Remarkable how supportive Sox' fans are for David Ortiz. There's no way to plug a player into a meter and say "he's lost it." Can you believe that Jason Varitek has a higher OPS than J.D. Drew? It...

Stripes. A movie, animal skin, or something else? Terry Francona has earned his stripes with a pair of World Series titles in five seasons. His success follows excellent players, supporting his veterans and promoting youth, keeping problems in-house, and maybe a little luck. Nothing wrong with that. Zebras. That is, umpires. I think the calls on the bases are as good as ever, but the strike zone has begun to resume pre-Questek dimensions, with the outside corner not yet of Glavinesque proportions but getting there. Two consecutive replay days for homers for the Sox, but the locals went 0-2, although no way we could bellyache on the former, and we couldn't really tell on the latter. Do you have to change your stripes sometimes? The Sox are facing numerous stripe-rearrangement questions? Do they need another DH bat? Even when healthy, is Mark Kotsay the answer if Big Papi continues to struggle or has an injury? Should Big Papi move down in the lineup? (Absolutely) Do we have a shorts...

I really liked what I saw of Junichi Tazawa in Spring Training (on television). He had an aggressive style, coming after the hitters, with a fastball with good movement and a better breaking ball than Daisuke Matsuzaka. He threw strikes. Tazawa went to AA Portland, and what has he done lately? Let's focus on the appearances in May. First, I like to look at WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and K/BB ratio, that predicts ERA better than previous ERA itself. In five May appearances, Tazawa has pitched 28 innings, yielding 21 hits, with 7 walks and 28 strikeouts. He has allowed five earned runs, with the WHIP ratio of 1.00 and the K/BB ratio of four. No doubt the Sox are working on fastball command and secondary pitches, but it looks like Tazawa has already achieved dominance at AAA. Next stop Pawtucket. Obviously, we don't know Taz' support system (interpreter) et cetera, but the Sox need to assess his abilities against better competition.

Red Sox Nation got a spiritual boost tonight with a two run homer provided by David Ortiz, his first of the season. Speculation raged over steroids, injury, or age discrepancy, but Ortiz, with tremendous support from Red Sox fans, delivered a blast into the centerfield camera. Ortiz has been one of the most popular, if not the most popular Sox player for years, and fans shared Terry Francona's angst over Big Papi's struggles at the bat. He had gone from nightly hero to Mighty Casey almost overnight, with lunging, futile swings. Meanwhile the Sox, who usually struggle against new pitchers teed off for five homers, a pair by Jason Varitek, and one apiece by J. Bay, Mike Lowell, and Papi.

With four starters with ERAs over six (Lester, Beckett, Penny, and Matsuzaka), one has to scratch his head and wonder how the Sox have stayed close in the AL East. The Sox are 21-12 and only a game out. But it's not difficult. Offensively, the Sox are second in the AL in scoring, about 5.7 runs per game, and the pitching is tenth in the AL in ERA. The Sox are sixth, however, in strikeouts to walks, and Red Sox data shows that K/BB ratio predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Still, more telling is the Red Sox bullpen, that is third in ERA at 3.20 and leads the AL in saves with 11. With the AL overall bullpen ERA at 4.54, that's quite a differential. This has translated into a 6-4 win-loss record in one-run games (good, not great) and their overall record exceeds their expected record using baseball's Pythagorean Theorem. Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Jonathan Papelbon have ERAs of 0.52, 0.52, and 1.20 respectively, allowing four earned runs in 49 2/3 innings. The...

Happy Mother's Day! The pink bats, pink wristbands, and breast cancer ribbons are out. The Sox play the Rays in the Game of the Week, and the Sox managed to keep Carl Crawford from stealing...as he scores from first on a two-out single by Pat Burrell. Crawford scored despite not running hard all the way...as I presume he thought Burrell's wall-ball was bound for the Monster Seats. It's a big outing for Josh Beckett and the Sox, as Beckett has struggled and Matt Garza has looked like Bob Gibson circa 1967 for the Rays. Before a national television audience, Terry Francona had the 'sense' to put Julio Lugo on the pine. Lugo's defense has been sorry so far this season...but he didn't pick up an error for his miscue yesterday. Unfortunately, Nick Green's defense hasn't been great either. Hope is a four-letter world.

Tonight Washington congratulates the Press on their stewardship of journalistic integrity in covering the White House. Meanwhile, the Red Sox took the roasting at the hands of the Tampa Bay Death Rays. It was another Kazmir sweater for the Sox as the Rays pounded the locals 14-5. The good news was that a slaughter rule deficit never came into play. A lot of guys had roles in the afternoon no-delight, particularly Julio Lugo, who continues to play Superman at shortstop, handling baseballs like kryptonite. The difference between Jed and Julio? There's no 'D' in Julio. Jeff Bailey misplayed a pickoff into an error as well, although not costing the Sox a run. The sacks were loaded more often than Professor Irwin Corey for the Rays, and the Sox exchanged the Friday Red uniforms for waving white flags. The Rays did show a little mercy, as Carl Crawford (three) had more hits than stolen bases, and didn't add to his stolen base or strawberry totals. Every starter for the Rays h...

Hat tip to son Conor...the numbers guy...a.k.a. "The Big Brain" Number of instances of 30 year olds having 300+ K seasons between 1945-1996: 5 Number of instances of 30 year olds having 300+ K seasons since 1997: 9 Pedro once (the year he was God) Schilling 3 times Johnson 5 times Also note that the 2001 D-Backs, in addition to Schilling and Johnson, had Luis Gonzalez's 57 homer year, Jay Bell (2 years removed from his 38-homer season which came at age 34), Matt Williams... Player (age that year) Strikeouts Year Sandy Koufax+ (30) 317 1966 Mickey Lolich (30) 308 1971 Nolan Ryan+ (30) 341 1977 Mike Scott (31) 306 1986 Nolan Ryan+ (42) 301 1989 Curt Schilling (30) 319 1997 Randy Johnson (34) 329 1998 Curt Schilling (31) 300 1998 Randy Johnson (35) 364 1999 Pedro Martinez (27) 313 1999 Randy Johnson (3...

My opinion on baseball or the Red Sox certainly isn't any better than yours. The only difference is that you may not have a forum to discuss your opinion. As we approach the quarter of a season mark, here are some thoughts and observations. I still have concerns about the Red Sox starting pitching, particularly when Tim Wakefield has been the "ace" of the staff. Yes, Lester is coming around, Beckett hasn't had full command, Daisuke is still on rehab, and Penny hasn't consistently shown he can win in the AL. Masterson is really better in the pen, as he has issues the second or third time around. The bullpen looks pretty solid, though. Jason Varitek's 0.791 OPS is something we can live with, particularly when he has reduced his strikeout percentage to 18%. Has he lost something defensively? That's not clear. Losing Youkilis' bat simply hurts. Great to have beaten the Yankees five straight, but they're like Jason Voorhees...hard to put down. Two of th...

When was the last time the Sox won ten in a row to move into second place? Maybe 1967. On that interesting note, let's try some random thoughts. The NBA's gone to plus minus in assessing contribution. Maybe the newspapers could introduce that for starting pitchers and catchers. Too random? A Yankee fan took umbrage to my comment that Kevin Youkilis might be the Sox version of Paul O'Neill. Evidently, he viewed O'Neill as the New York version of Mother Teresa. Did she beat up water coolers? Ramon Ramirez has been pretty effective...is he just wild enough to be scary? Cliff Lee looks like he's got the kryptonite so far tonight. Jacoby Ellsbury is on a 90 steal pace. With Scott Boras as his agent, will we know him as the Ellsbury Dough Boy? David Ortiz still isn't making great contact. Does Papi need an eye check, or a wrist check? Julio Lugo is back. I'm kinda good with Nick Green for now. Don't rush it, eh? Tim Wakefield's biggest liability is the run...

First, I am a Red Sox fan, tracing my Sox roots back to the Yaz era that began in the early 60's. I've suffered though Mantle, Maris, and Ford, the dark days of Hector Lopez, The Stick, Roy White, and the resurrected Bombers of Reggie Jackson, BillyBall, and the Jeter era...and of course the Frustration of the New Millenium. I remember Felix Mantilla, Jim Pagliaroni, and when Schilling was Chuck, not Curt. Culpability meant Ray Culp's location not two hundred million dollar payrolls. So the Sox victory tonight brings their deficit to 64-68 over the past seven plus seasons. Still, watching these games brings plenty of time pain, as they almost never last less than four hours (4:21 tonight), as though swinging at a first pitch strike is a crime and you get paid time and a half for a full count. Okay, so maybe extra innings gives some legitimacy to a four hour game tonight, but not by that much. If you love crisp baseball, you will find only annoyance in Sox-Yanks contests. Jo...

The Red Sox ride a seven game win streak into a weekend series with the Yankees, who have played well since their 22-4 destruction by Cleveland. The Sox showcase Lester, Beckett, and Masterson while the Yankees counter with Joba "the Hut" Chamberlain, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. The first game of the series pits teams with identical 9-6 records tied for second place behind Toronto. Chamberlain pitched brilliantly in one start against the Sox last season, and Lester shutout the Yankees at the Stadium. Chamberlain has a propensity for head-hunting, with Kevin Youkilis the object for his disaffection. Yankee lackey Bob Watson ought to consider dropping a dime to Chamberlain with some reminders of the impact of the "purpose" pitch, using Tony Conigliaro and Kirby Puckett as tragic examples of baseball meeting heads. Mark Teixeira (double 'e' before 'i') makes his pinstripe debut at Fenway Park leaving disaffected Boston suitors for a steamer trunk f...

Maybe it's too soon to make overarching judgements about the 2009 baseball season, but we all have our early impressions.  Is the offense better around the league or the pitching worse? Break up the Marlins? Balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox pitching may not be nearly as good as we thought. Fortunately, the Yankee pitching may not be as good either. Maybe Zack Greinke (ERA 0.00 after three games) IS the real deal. You knew Tim Lincecum wasn't going to keep getting lit up forever. Lou Groza's five field goals and a Browns touchdown were too much for the Yankees. Kansas City. First place.  Does Gary Sheffield's 500th homer (25th guy to do it) get a steroid asterisk? Some think Bob Watson still acts in the Yankees' interest. The New Look Giants have a record like the 2008 Giants. Manny continues to hit (and field) like Godzilla.  Anybody wondering whether the balls are juiced? Johan Santana sure looks good. Should that surprise us? Are the Orioles try...

The Red Sox came back from an early nil-7 deficit to beat the Orioles last night. But was that the story? Sure the Sox got some timely hitting, Dr. Longball from J Bay and J.D., and outstanding relief pitching. But wasn't the Woes defense the major contribution? Jeremy Guthrie certainly could claim non-support, particularly with Aubrey Huff doing a Doctor Strangeglove imitation at first and Adam Jones not confusing anyone with Andruu Jones in center. Certainly the Mothers' Day Miracle comes to mind in Sox comebacks for the nouveau Sox fan. For the slightly older, there was the playoff rally in the ill-fated 1986 playoffs against the Angels with the Hendu homer off Donnie Moore. But for the long of tooth, in the Impossible Dream season of 1967, the Sox came back from an 8-0 deficit against the Los Angeles Angels, winning, if I recall, on a Jerry Adair homer. Adair would later have a key contribution (again with memory fading) in the sixth inning five-run rally against the Twins ...

Most Sox fans are trying to avoid making too much of a start to the season marked by losing three consecutive series, to the Rays, Halos, and A's. The strength of the team ostensibly is its starting pitching, which has largely betrayed them. Josh Beckett contests a suspension, Jon Lester hasn't gotten it together, and Daisuke Matsuzaka goes on the DL, a casualty of the World Baseball Classic. So what's logical? Brad Penny goes Friday Beckett is contesting suspension, and presumably would be available Saturday; then serve his suspension Lester would go Sunday Masterson would move into the rotation Monday against Baltimore Wakefield would come back Tuesday. Ideally the Sox use a spot starter callup Wednesday (Bowden or Tazawa) Thursday would be an off day Friday they bring back Penny Saturday would mean Lester Sunday night (having served his six game suspension) Beck against the Yankees. Tim Wakefield was masterful today, sparing the bullpen, which now gets a travel day to re...

Click photo to ENLARGE Okay, it's a little early for that.

Have the Sox ever opened on the road in California? Well, yes, after Japan last year, but on a glorious day (my daughter was there surely wearing a Sox tee-shirt), the Sox outlasted the Halos. The Sox offense finally got going via Doctor Longball, with a two run homer by Mike Lowell and a pair of homers by Jason Bay. Bay's circus catch in left field was not reminiscent of anything Manny, and fielders seemed plagued by what they call in baseball a "high sky". Yeah, I know the sky is always high. Jacoby Ellsbury definitely looks less helpless at the plate, although he got caught stealing after swiping his third bag. Brad Penny didn't look like he could get loose early, but amped it up into the mid-90s as the game went along. He does have a bit of a Mickey Lolich look about him...but Lolich got guys out. Penny showed flashes of why he won 16 games two of the past three years. He reminds me of an upgrade on a Ray Culp , which isn't so bad. Think of a Ray Culp on stero...