Red Sox Reality Check

Sports is always a bottom line business - record. And despite the generally punchless offense, after 24 games, the Red Sox are 14-10 atop the American League East. They have also played 14 of the 24 games on the road. Of course, there is 'deeper' thought as well, concerning relative strength or power ratings. The Sox have been outscored 122-113, a trend that might argue that their longer-term performance might underachieve their start. If we think about a 'mean reversion' approach, we would certainly expect more from Tim Wakefield (and much less from Jonathan Papelbon), and aside from David Ortiz and to an extent Kevin Youkilis, it would be hard to argue that much of the offense hasn't underperformed (how many negatives in that sentence?). Statistically, where are the Red Sox as a team, looking at 1) runs scored, 2) OPS, 3) WHIP ratio (walks and hits allowed per inning), and K/BB ratio? Runs scored: 10th OPS: .761 (left on base not the only problem) WHIP ratio: 5th ...

Who's Hot Papelbon - lights out Ortiz - no contract Orfizzle here Foulke - having fun again Who's Not Man do we need Coco? Loretta - needs home cooking? Bard - "methinks thou dost protest too much", not the answer Wakefield - run support and catching support Miscellaneous Wily Mo is a lot better than you think Tavarez may be better than I think Seanez may be worse than I think Most underutilized player? Alex Cora

Props to Big Dog at Boston Dirt Dogs for the PapelVaughn headline after the mohawk. Awesome, baby! Back to action, the Sox rolled into Cleveland in a most strange game. First, the Tribe has a scary lineup. Anybody here remember the old days with the Tribe? Joe Azcue, Duke Sims, Rocky Colavito, Sudden Sam McDowell? Colavito used to stretch holding both hands at the ends of the bat, putting the bat behind his head. McDowell was reminiscent of Mitch 'Wild Thing' Williams. How many anomalies were there? As Oil Can Boyd might say, "that's what happens when you build a ballpark next to the ocean." 1) Curt Schilling really battled after Cleveland had some fantastic hacks at him early. 2) Ortiz homers off lefty specialist (LOOGY - lefthander out of the pen to get one guy) Sauerbeck 3) Manny homers after an intentional walk to Ortiz 4) Two oddball double plays including a pickoff into a double play, and a double play started in the middle infield and culminating in a play...

We suffer the 'football mentality', that every game is the end of the world. How many times have we heard that the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, and we have to appreciate that periodic stumbles don't mean the end of the race. On the other hand, a victory in April counts as much as a victory in September. The baseball gods of fortune smiled on Matt Clement, who continues to leave sliders up, as they kept Greg Zaun's drive in the park to prevent the Jays from beating the Sox again with doctor longball. If there was such a thing as a 'must win' game in April, this felt like it. As predicted yesterday, the Sox promoted Manny Delcarmen, as the depth of the bullpen has recently faltered. When asked on Sports Radio about the long-term fate of DiNardo, Seanez, Riske, and Wells, 'the Commissioner', Peter Gammons said he wouldn't be surprised if DiNardo was the only one to ultimately survive the season with the Sox. The Sox offense managed twelv...

A disabled vessel in Navy parlance remains afloat, "dead in the water." After last night's disappointing blowup, the Sox had nothing today, as Lenny DiNardon't got quickly hammered for four runs and the Sox never responded. Last night's game was disappointing in a number of respects, but perhaps we should reflect on a few positives. Manny Ramirez showed signs of life with a pair of opposite field homers. Minus the eighth inning, Josh Beckett continued to dominate. Keith Foulke pitched well, working out of a jam in the eleventh, and victimized partly by umpiring and partly by Rudy Seanez. Jonathan Papelbon was lights out, and earned his new mohawk hairstyle with ten innings of scoreless relief. Suffice it to say that most of the pen will have to have a lot shorter inning requirement to get Kevin Youkilis' 'Shear Madness' routine. Today, as noted by Jerry Remy, Roy Halladay didn't have his best stuff, but it was clearly enough to shut down the Sox. T...

I know the Sox have beaten Scott Kazmir, but probably not in a fair fight. Kazmir left with a lead in the sixth, having largely shut down the Sox for 5 2/3 innings. There wasn't a lot of good news for the Sox, who left Kevin Youkilis on base in the first after a leadoff double, and it just didn't get much better. The good news? Willie Harris had a single to prolong the abortive ninth inning rally. Dustin Mohr took Kazmir deep on a solo shot, and Mike Lowell looked strong at third. Tim Wakefield pitched decently, throwing three perfect innings before the deluge. Coming into tonight's action, the Sox lead the majors in wins with 11. Not too shabby. The bad news. The Sox couldn't keep Jonny Gomes in the yard, as he clubbed two dingers, and the bullpen was atrocious as Julian Tavarez got savaged. Josh Bard allowed a passed ball with a man on third in Tampa's two-run fourth. Rene Russo wasn't back tonight, except on replay, as Jerry and Don exchanged some good-nature...

Rene Russo's appearance in the stands and the booth led some nominal excitement to a game otherwise marked by ennui. In the 'Inane Banter' redux department, Jerry and Don were unable to identify who Rene dated in the eighties from the Dodgers, and Don got some snaps for his office. Testimony to the interest the game generated were about 77 'honey shots' of Rene during the contest. By the way, Rene was born February 17, 1954, and still looks pretty good...maybe some plastic surgery happening there? In JV action, the Pawsox shutout Durham, with a homer and three hits from Jeff Bailey, and six shutout innings from Jimmy Serrano and a pair from Manny Delcarmen. Kason Gabbard got hammered as Portland lost 7-3, and Wilmington won behind Andrew Dobies and a homerun by Michael Hall. Dobies lowered his ERA to 1.69. Kevin Youkilis led off the game for the Sox with a shot over everything, and probably has only about 70 plus more to catch Ricky Henderson as the all-time leadoff...

Seven for seven for Jonathan Papelbon with a death struggle to get out of a bases-loaded ninth inning jam to defeat the visiting Rays and move the Sox to 10-4. Matt Clement started and pitched well, before tiring in the eighth. It seemed like a logical time to go to the bullpen, but nevermind. Papelbon required over 30 pitches to dispose of Tampa as his mechanics were off, with his front shoulder flying out resulting in some inconsistency. The point was well-made however that several Rays, including Cantu, Gomes, and Travis Lee put on great at-bats. Stuff you don't see. First, the four outfielders shift against Ortiz, which failed because he put a couple off the Monstah. Second, a walk-off diving catch in centerfield, reminiscent of Fred Lynn. Kevin Youkilis has certainly earned a place in the lineup with key hitting, and tonight was no exception with an eighth inning gapper of the base of the wall near the 379 market to plate the two go-ahead runs. Nitwit radio. Today the shut-ins...

In a rare Patriots' Day win, the Sox nipped Seattle on a Loretta walk-off homer to capture the series 3-1. I didn't see the game, only the replay (dang that medicine thing) so I have few comments: 1) Trot Nixon looked good hitting, and running, so maybe we've got that one licked 2) Kevin Youkilis legging out the infield hit in the 9th was the 2006 equivalent of 'the stolen base'. 3) It didn't take David Ortiz long to get his swing repaired, including a LONG tater into the right field bleachers 4) Lenny DiNardon't Do It wasn't half bad, at least relative to what we saw previously from Boomer. Rudy Seanez looks less and less like the Answer. 5) Did you ever think you'd be saying 'Mark Loretta walkoff homer?' In minor league action, Pawtucket lost, but Dustin Pedroia played, and went 1 for 5. David Pauley spun a 7 inning shutout for Portland, and Thomas Hottovy had a six inning whitewash for Wilmington. Jacoby Ellsbury had a hit and two stolen b...

Today while the Sox were beating Seattle, the trivia question asked who were the last two Sox pitchers to begin 3-0 (Schilling and Beckett have now done it)? The answer was Tim Wakefield and Vaughn Eshelman, who was another of the southpaws who never made it with the Sox. Eshelman's career doesn't deserve much of a mention, but you can click and read it. http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/eshelva01.shtml The best lefthander of the 'real' modern era (1967 on) for the Sox has been, yes you guessed it, Bill Lee http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leebi03.shtml . Some have come close, including Bruce Hurst http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hurstbr01.shtml and John Tudor http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/tudorjo01.shtml . I'm sure 'The SpaceMan' still has nightmares over the Leephus he fed Tony Perez in Game 7 of the 75 series. Hurst would have been MVP of the 1986 series if it weren't for...well, anyway. Tudor, the local product, won 21 games for the C...

The Sox lost to the Mariners 3-0 Saturday, as Joel Piniero looked like Juan Marichal against the punchless Sox. Highlights? Tim Wakefield allowed 3 runs in pitching a complete game, and Jermaine Van Buren, up from the Pawsox with David Wells headed back to the DL. Just one of those days. The absence of Coco Crisp and Trot Nixon has surfaced, along with Manny being Manny Alexander so far. Wells trip to the DL comes as no surprise, after during his initial outing he failed to break glass with his fastball. And we wonder why Theo couldn't move him during Spring Training. At least Wells' incentives must be giving him plenty of motivation. It's back to Beckett today, for the rubber game of the series. So far, it's been "Beckett and Schilling and the rest aren't so thrilling", although Wakefield has been decent. Who gets the number 5 spot in the rotation? DiNardon't? Papelbon (we hope) is destined to be our number three starter (technically number 4) and we ...

Can you draw conclusions about a baseball team ten games into the season? Injuries are part of the game, yet ten games into the season, and absent a couple of regulars for about half (Crisp and Nixon), the Sox have jumped out to a 7-3 starts to lead the AL East. These aren't necessarily your father's Red Sox, or even YOUR Red Sox offensively, as they're in the middle of the pack in runs production, averaging 5 runs/game. However, they're tied for 5th in the AL in OPS, so maybe better days are ahead offensively. The Sox also check in at 10th in home runs, likely to improve once Manny Ramirez gets off the schneid. Although the pitching has generally shined (3rd in ERA), we have to wonder whether they can keep it up, 6th in WHIP ratio (walks and hits per inning pitched) and 9th in K/BB which may be a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. The good news comes defensively, where they have allowed only three errors in ten games, and had eight error-free games. They a...

Reid Johnson gets back in the lineup last night, and he ruins the Sox for the series. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly, in the same vein as Andy Pettitte, Tom Tresh, and Gates Brown, kills the Sox. Lilly, with his career .494 winning percentage coming into 2006 is Sandy Koufax reincarnate against the Sox with a 10 strikeout, no walk performance. What could go wrong? Matt Clement could have the 'wild in the strike zone' plague, throwing nothing but meatballs up in the zone, and not even another David Ortiz homerun (4) could rescue him. Clement's E.R.A. balloons to 9 (for non-math types, ERA = earned runs times nine divided by innings pitched). Julian Tavarez debuted off the suspended list, and made nobody forget, let's say Manny Delcarmen. Gotta cut some of these guys without any recent game action some slack, however. Highlights? A Keith Foulke 1-2-3 inning deserves a note, and Alex Gonzalez, struggling mightily at the bat, hammered a gapper to the Monstah for a hit. Hits have been...

You win 60, you lose 60, and what happens in those other 40 games makes the difference. Or something like that. Today was one of those 60 games you lose (he writes as they play the bottom of the eighth). The game was painful from the outset. You didn't have to be Johnny Sain to see that Wells didn't have it. Last year, he often got it up there at 88-89 mph, and may have touched 90 a few times. Tonight is was mostly 80-83, with an occasional 85. Without a trick pitch, a herky-jerky delivery, or pinpoint control and a big zone, can Wells can win if the stuff he has tonight is what's left in his arm? What a difference a day makes. Quality starts coming with regularity, followed by junk. You can't say that a guy who's pitched in the majors for 20 years, 'suddenly' lost it. You have a bad day at the office and it doesn't mean you're finished. But professional sports has legions of young, talented, hungry athletes ready to challenge for your spot. And don...

No word on the blister watch, but the Sox and Josh Beckett (2-0), did some more bird-hunting today, plucking the Jays 5-3. Beckett gave up a run in seven innings, followed by a good enough effort by Foulke (vide infra), and a shutdown close from Jonathan 'Money' Papelbon (S4). Foulke was victimized by Wily Mo Pena's inexperience in right, as the ball tipped off Pena's glove for a two-run homer. Pena was in there because Trot Nixon tweaked a muscle. Legalize steroids! Oh, sorry about that. The Sox used the offense of a thousand paper cuts to get four runs in the second, and David Ortiz celebrated gazillionaire status by going deep into the rightfield grandstand. The Sox starting pitching continues to shine, with David Wells hoping to fatten up on the Blue Jay lineup. Maybe not a good choice of words. Wells looks to add onto last year's fifteen victories, so it's no laughing matter. The Sox played errorless ball for the fifth time in seven games. Kevin Youkilis ra...

Same style, different day. Not even a broken Coco could upset the Sox clockwork victory, leading to a sweep of the Baltimoreans. The Sox get off to their best start in seven years and head home for Opening Day Tuesday. Adam Stern filled in more than admirably for Coco Crisp with two runs batted in filling in for Coco Crisp who had injured his glove hand sliding last night. Another quality start, as Wakefield goes six, allowing one run. Josh Bard had no difficulties behind the plate, and scored a run on a heads up baserunning play. The Sox beat longtime nemesis Rodrigo Lopez, and Kevin Millar gets the walkoff out for consecutive games. Mike Timlin and Keith Foulke both looked solid in relief, and although Jonathan Papelbon wasn't as sharp as in the previous games, he got it done, notching his third save and remaining unscored upon. The most encouraging aspects of the victories are the total team contribution with different players contributing to the victory daily. About the only ne...

The Sox came into the season with a number of questions, including the health and resilience of Curt Schilling and the need for a closer. Schilling moved to 2-0 with another outstanding performance, and Jonathan Papelbon mowed down the Orioles to earn his second save. The Sox squandered some run-scoring opportunities, but let's also recognize the difficulty of hitting under adverse conditions. Schilling allowed 3 hits and an earned run in seven innings, Mike Timlin was solid in the setup role, and Papelbon remained lights out with two balls in the air and a strikeout of fastball-hitting Kevin Millar. Offensively, the Sox have 5 regulars batting at least .300 and this group continues to work the count. Defensively, the Sox didn't have to make a lot of tough plays, but they've made only one error in five games, with J.T. Snow also in for defense at the end. Joe Brinkman was atrociously consistent during the game. He has an exaggerated stance behind the catchers left shoulder,...

Four games isn't much of a sample size for broad generalizations, but a few points stand out. The double play combination of Gonzalez and Loretta appears to be a large upgrade over any recent middle pair. Gonzalez' starting a tough one from the hole last night served as an eye-opener Trot Nixon. Who would have predicted him to 1) lead the team in RBI after four games and 2) have homered off a southpaw? Mike Lowell has been solid at third. Coco Crisp (.381/.500/.881) appears to be a far cheaper alternative to 'Samson' Damon, with a smaller hat and plenty of cattle Jonathan Papelbon looks to have taken up where he left off last season On the to be determined side: Keith Foulke's struggles look 'workable' as Terry Francona has decided not to let Foulke's salary interfere with his decisions. The bullpen newcomers, Riske and Seanez will get more rope before scrap, but 'you never get a second chance to make a first impression.' Worrying about this one:...

Dan Shaughnessy ---- Napoleon Dynamite It does make you think...

Despite a furious Baltimore comeback spearheaded by Rudy Seanez, the Red Sox held off the Orioles at Camden Yards, 14-8. the Sox pounded 'Wild Thing 2' Daniel Cabrera for 7 runs, mostly on walks. Cabrera's effort reminded me of what Sparky Anderson used to say about players hitting sixty points higher if they could wear a suit of armor to the plate. Cabrera couldn't have found home plate with a cane, a dog, and GPS. Matt Clement looked sharp for six innings, shutting down the birds before he weakened in the seventh. Rudy Seanez recalled the John McKay quote about being asked about the execution of his team, "I'm in favor of it." Seanez got reacquainted with the American League, where guys can hit. On the very positive side, Manny Ramirez swung the bat well with three hits before sitting down in the seventh, and Trot Nixon went yard off lefty Doug Dubose, tying his output against southpaws for 2005. A-Gone and Loretta looked rude and smooth turning two in ...

Check out Mike Colucci's "Red Sox Stats Guy." Even classmate Eric Van might be envious. www.redsoxstatsguy.com

Even in Red Sox Nation, enemy agents not only exist, but boast about it. Sometimes. After a hated Yankee win, like their opening day massacre of Oakland, the hated Yankee partisans wax eloquent about their great lineup, about how 'RJ is back'. After the Sox' loss Tuesday, it was all about 'Wakefield's lost it' and 'Josh Bard couldn't catch a cold.' Even after a close loss, like Tuesday's Proctorology Job on the Bombers, they noted that 'Moose looked like a kid again'. Translation: Mike Mussina didn't stink up the joint like last year. But after last night's debacle by the bay, starring Jaret 'Mister' Wright, the hated Yankee apologists were nowhere in sight. Heck, it was easier to get Alfonso Soriano into the Nats' outfield than draw the Bummed Bomber Boosters into the open. I mean, really. Normally, the hated Yankee-NY football Giant crew will be out lambasting the umpires-officials, the weather conditions, or the pha...

There's no closer controversy. Yet. This isn't like the NFL, where if you have two number one quarterbacks, then you don't have any. It's about getting the job done, and ultimately Jonathan Papelbon is a future top-of-the-rotation guy. We all dream of a productive rotation with Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, and some more young guns. Craig Hansen is the closer-in-waiting, not JP. No kidding . But back to today. Don't read lips, especially if you're faint of heart, as Josh Beckett punches out hitters and does some fist pumping. Beckett has the overpowering heat, a hard sinker, and struggled a bit with less than 12-to-6 action on the breaking ball. Quality start = victory. The QS has a 100% predictive value on the young season. It's easy to see improved defense (don't forget the 7-5-2 out at the plate), and it's always good to win a series, especially on the road. Pen Pals. Timlin looked shaky, but maybe shaking off the rust will get him back to where he ...

Last night looked more like Texas as usual, as the Rangers pounded Tim Wakefield and the Sox. About the only one who looked happy to see Wake go, was Josh Bard, who looked like he was trying to eat soup with a fork. Maybe Wakefield had a great knuckler, or maybe Bard's going to be looking for a new line of work. All too often, people dispel the notion of 'quality starts' as having importance. Last night it was the Texans who had the QS, and in the two game series, the QS has a 4-0 record. Academic reseach (really) shows that the QS results in a winning outcome in about 70% of games. As feared, the Sox saw a new pitcher (Vicente Padilla) from the National League, and didn't do much with him, either. Of course, with some former NLers in the lineup, how new was he. About the only positive from the debacle, was the opportunity to watch an absolutely terrific Womens Hoop Championship as Maryland squeaked past Duke 78-75 in OT. The Maryland point guard buried a stepback trey ...

The Red Sox couldn't sign Kevin Millwood during the offseason. So they did the next best thing, beat him like a rented mule, capturing the season opener for the first time since 2000, topping Texas 7-3. The 'new look' Sox, not just another Soviet-style 5 year plan in the making used a quality start by Curt Schilling (7 IP, 2 ER) and Doctor Longball, with taters from Big Papi and Mike Lowell to earn the win. Meanwhile, Jon Papelbon looked like Dr. Frankenstein's monster in shutting down the potent Rangers, and Keith Foulke made it interesting, serving up batting practice to Texas, who could only manage a run off the Comeback Player of the Year wannabe. Coco Crisp showed serious wheels on the basepaths and made a spectacular run-saving catch in the 9th, sparing Foulke further damage to his E.R.A. Meanwhile David Ortiz had 3 hits and 3 RBI in his first repudiation statement concerning last year's MVP balloting. Hope springs eternal, especially on the first Monday in Ap...

On the eve of the Sox inaugural outing of the 2006 campaign, it's time to put up or shut up. ESPN the Magazine picks the Sox 3rd in the AL East, Peter Gammons picks a hated Yankees-Cardinals Series (and Bobby Crosby to be AL MVP), and ESPN online has the Sox winning the wild card. The Yankeefan.blogspot.com website ran multiple seasons (1000) using the Diamond Mind Baseball software program, and came up with some interesting results. The hated Yankees win the AL East 619 times to the Bosox' 283. Combining the Division titles and Wildcard, the Sox project to make the playoffs 522 times. Adjusting for statistics from Baseball Prospectus, the Sox continue to make the playoffs about 52% of the time. For what it's worth, the Blue Jays project to win the division 84 times and reach the playoff 177 times, and the Tampa D-Rays get shut out, in both the original Diamond Mind simulation. Of course, I don't know how this accounts for injuries, especially with the geezers prese...

Two more days, two more nights, before the Boys of Summer take the stage, for real. They're a tad short-handed, minus the hot-headed Julian 'Tyson' Tavarez. I've expounded on my negative theories about Texas trips before, with the abundance of 'Gentlemen's Clubs' in Arlington. Are they an ill-fated attraction for young men with more than Thoughts of Glove, and Bat and Ball? So, any Sox fans in Arlington, I want you to bring your mug shots to Arlington's Finest Clubs and make sure the guys are getting their rest and resting their livers. I'm pretty sure there's data to show that most teams who aren't over .500 for the first ten games of the season don't make the playoffs. But no reason to be pessimistic, right? The Rangers send Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Kameron Loe to counter Schilling, Wakefield, and Beckett. Sometimes the Sox have struggled when they don't have a book on the opposition's newcomers, so let's hope ...