Red Sox Reality Check

David Pauley's coming out party plays to mixed reviews. Sinker or not, he's leaving a lot of balls up in the zone, but did get three DPs, although it should have been 1-2-3 not 1-6-3. From the stretch, Pauley reminds me of Derek Lowe, but without as much sink, at least tonight. He does have enough giddyap on the heater (88-91) to earn respect for it. He doesn't look like Brian Rose either though, who never had an out pitch. Rose, a high school phenom, never had the stuff to win. As I understand it, he had a personality-stuff disparity, although I have never met the man. I would like to see more consistency in his delivery. The best pitchers tend to have a compact delivery with power focused from the leg kick and back leg drive. Pauley often seems to throw across his body, not as much as a Mark Gubicza did, but enough to cause him to lose control. His arm slot on the curveball seems more vertical than that on his fastball. It appears that Pauley could get people out with the...

The ESPN (and other) site statistical info is terrific. Here are some samplers of truly incredible stuff. Top 4 in Slugging - AL Thome Dye (huh) Swisher (Moneyball guy) Rios (this guy's killing us) Least likely guy in the top 10 in runs scored? 9) Orlando Cabrera (40) 10) Brad Wilkerson (39) Running Game Crawford 20 of 23 SB Posednik 18 of 25 (leads league in caught stealing) Brian Roberts honorable mention, 9 thefts, not caught On base percentage 12 ALers have .400 or higher OPS including 3 Sox (Manny at 3, Youk at 5, Nixon at 11) Most RBI by an unknown? Jose Lopez of Seattle checks in at numero 10, with 40! And the Sabermetric winners are...? The top 5 in runs created are Thome, Swisher, Hafner, Wells, and Sizemore Number one in BB/K in the AL? A shocker. Trot Nixon 1.73 Wily Mo Pena to have wrist surgery, so I'm going to have to find a new underdog to root for. I'd be leaning towards Manny Delcarmen, but I'm afraid he's on the Pawtucket Shuttle. Alex Cora may h...

We shouldn't try to read too much into a game (or two), but on the other hand we shouldn't ignore reality either. If pitching and defense win games, then lack of pitching surely compromise that chance. As far as available, reliable pitchers, the Sox are down to Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, and Foulke. In the inconsistent at best category live Clement, Tavarez, and Seanez. In the unknown commodity category we have Pauley (starting tomorrow), Delcarmen, and VanBuren. In the don't inspire confidence, 'Help Me Rhonda' club is David Riske, who has better stuff than results so far. In the 'oh, oh, old and health challenged locker are David Wells and Mike Timlin. In the 'can't break glass' rubric live Abe Alvarez and Lenny DiNardo. And finally, in the PawSox Promise dumper are Jon Lester and Craig Hansen. As a Sox fan, I want to see guys who can get people out through overpowering stuff, command, and 'discomfort'. I don't want guys d...

The Red Sox have enjoyed success for a number of years, thanks to key players, a big payroll, and the willingness and ability of management to identify key players and to trade for and/or sign them. However, another component to success is the contemporary manager. The argument in many sports centers around the 'players' manager' or the 'disciplinarian'. Inevitably, a teams' success wanes (or doesn't happen) and a paradigm shift results, the change from Column A (players' manager) to Column B (tough guy). The Red Sox developed an organizational tectonic shift, to 'Moneyball', and needed a manager who could bridge the gap between tradition and change. Tradition includes the 'in your face' tough guy attitude with 'I know a player when I see him', while change understands the needs of the contemporary player and the relevance of statistics to player acquisition and development, matchups, and strategy. It soulds simple, especially to ...

There's plenty of subjectivity in selecting or voting for All-Stars. Aside from productivity, choices occur (or don't) because of reputation, injury, and even bonuses. Let's do our homework and try to pick the legitimate All-Stars that will represent the AL. It only makes sense to select by team, although some teams (Kansas City) probably don't deserve a selectee. There is no DH this year. One player will be voted in by the fans. AL West (4) Texas-- Blalock (3B) Anaheim-- Guerrero (OF) Oakland-- Swisher (OF) Seattle-- Ichiro (OF) AL Central (7) Chicago-- Thome (1B) Detroit-- Shelton (1B), Ordonez (OF) Cleveland-- Hafner (1B), Blake (OF) Minnesota-- Mauer (C) Kansas City-- Grudzielanek (2B) AL East (9) Boston-- Ramirez (OF), Lowell (3B) New York-- Jeter (SS), Giambi (1B), Posada (C) Toronto-- Rios (OF), Wells (OF) Tampa Bay-- Gomes (OF) Baltimore-- Tejada (SS) Toughest inclusion: Grudzielanek...KC is just downright terrible. As it is, you probably have to ask a s...

Curt Schilling gets the topic sentence tonight, with his eighth victory, tieing him for the Major League lead, and his 200th career victory. Congratulations. Once again the Sox played error-free baseball, and Last night's abusee, Keith Foulke, came out tonight to attempt to bridge to Jonathan Papelbon. 1-2-3. And Kevin Youkilis is likely to be displaced as the leadoff man with Coco Crisp's return imminent. Admittedly Youkilis hasn't earned the status of, let's say, Michael Bishop, but he's become pretty entrenched at the top of the order. Youkilis played left tonight, with Manny getting a day off, and Snow in May at first. Coming into tonight, Youkilis was 14th in the AL in batting (.317), 6th in on base percentage (.421), and 21st in on OPS (.928). He raised his numbers to .321, .440, and .940 tonight. Sometimes you have to wonder whether there are other prospects buried in the minors who could produce at the major league level. It's three consecutive appearanc...

A Sox fan behind the dugout and Keith Foulke had an apparent verbal confrontation after the reliever's departure. I haven't been to a Red Sox game for over a year. I'm sure that I've been to hundreds over the years, and verbal abuse has traditionally been a part of the Fenway experience. Sort of like Durgin Park, except meaner and with poorer quality food. Except usually it's the fans who suffer. At least in the past, the Kevin Bacon six degrees of separation shrank to only three seats of separation from the nearest patron "in the bag." Do you feel superior by 'trashing' a professional who hasn't performed up to his best? (Why blog then?) What have you done for me lately? (Anybody else think Foulke should have been the World Series 2004 MVP?) Is it your right to heckle because you ponied up 75 bucks? (Nobody can hear you in the bleachers anyway.) Did you just forget your medicine? (Lordy, it's so expensive, I can understand that.) Are y...

Here's the corrected link. http://umassathletics.cstv.com/sports/w-softbl/umas-w-softbl-body.html click on ABC40's NCAA Highlights a few paragraphs down. Great clip.

In an inauspicious development, the Sox faced Sox-killer Scott Kazmir, winner of the second most games in the majors since the All-Star break of last season. Kazmir, whom the D-Rays got for Victor Zambrano in the heist of the century, has caused the Sox immense problems. But not tonight. The Sox knocked him out in the sixth, following a bases-clearing double by David Ortiz and a two-run Monstah Mash by Mike Lowell in the sixth. Unfortunately for the Sox, the Yin of David Wells return, 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball, was met by the Yang, a liner off of his right knee, called a 'deep contusion' (that's medical for a bone bruise). Julian Tavarez relieved and continues to improve his effectiveness, as most of the hits he yielded were the 'seeing-eye' variety. Unfortunately, the Sox had to bring in 'The Mask' Jonathan Papelbon to finish, but he did, lowering his E.R.A. to 0.36. Dustan (The Wind) Mohr heads back to Pawtucket, Coco Crisp is on rehab in Florida and h...

http://umassathletics.cstv.com/sports/w-softbl/umas-w-softbl-body.html Go to this site and click on the ABC40's NCAA highlights for a terrific clip.

George Carlin has a wonderful routine comparing baseball and football. Football is played in a stadium, War Memorial Stadium, and baseball is played in the park, the baseball park. And so on. Are there statistical analogies? I mean everyone knows Aaron had 755 homers and Ruth (and Bonds) 714, but who knows how many TDs Jerry Rice caught? In a football game, I generally expect an average team to score 7 points for every 100 yards of offense from scrimmage. That’s rough, but ballpark. For a baseball team, I expect a run for about every 3 men on base. So if you have a WHIP ratio (walks and hits/inning) of 1, then you’ll probably have an E.R.A. of around 3. If a team gets 6 hits and no walks, I wouldn’t expect much more than 2 runs. Which brings us to the Sox? There are some exceptions, such as Tim Wakefield. Wakefield has a WHIP ratio of 1.35 and an E.R.A. of 4.57. What’s the missing link? Homers, as he's yielded 7 so far. The D-Rays invaded Fenway tonight. The Rays have good athletic...

Every sport has 'special' games, departures from the monolithic normality of the endless seasons. Tonight you can only expect Rod Serling to emerge from the Twilight Zone. Only a few days ago, Manny Ramirez had 8 homers and not many hit with customary authority. Now he's at eleven, with one reminiscent of a pair of Larry Hisle shots I saw from the bleachers when Hisle was with the Brewers. Matt Clement is the baseball equivalent of a trailer park to a hurricane, a baseball magnet. Clement seemed in control until he got hit by a line drive, and then the edge came off the slider and the Bombers put up a crooked number (4). Meanwhile, Kevin ("not enough power") drilled his fifth homer of the year against RJ. Regardless of the outcome, Johnson, at age 43 is not the man he used to be. But he has a better haircut. Manny Ramirez showed us the enthusiasm of a dog riding in a car with his head out the window as he rumbled in from second on a single, nearly flattening Demar...

Just one of those days, as the Bombers had too much for the Sox tonight. Mariano Rivera had his cutter running in on lefthanders tonight and shut down the Sox late game rally. A-Rod had an insurance homer earlier, one which he somehow 'lost' off the bat, thinking he popped it up. Amazing. Jerry Remy was spot on with the commentary, particularly concerning Scott Proctor's lack of control, which cost him. Manny Ramirez gave his a Proctorology visit with a long tater into Conig's Corner. Remarkably, the Sox came into the game with just 14 errors in 42 games. Was it 40 something errors that Butch Hobson made in 1978, playing with bone chips in his elbow. Butch Hobson? You haven't heard that name in awhile. Johnny (BeGone) Damon led off the game with his 17th career game leadoff homer. Good call by Demarlo Hale on the first run, a single to left by Mirabelli. Although Nixon got to third about the time Bernie Williams got the ball, Williams barely reached cutoff man A-Rod...

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People talk about Schilling's legendary game plan, and tonight he evidenced it. In addition to prohibiting the Bombers a base on balls, Schilling masterfully used both sides of the plate, and worked the fastball up and the splitter down. Hitters like to get ahead and look for their pitch in a certain zone (righthanders generally middle in/knees to the waist). Schilling simply forbade them the opportunity. Meanwhile, the Big Dogs, Ortiz and Ramirez each delivered three RBI, and the visitors outfield defense wasn't the greatest either, as they failed to come up with some tough chances. Alex Cora had a nice game filling in at shortstop; Cora just does the little things that help you win. About the only downer was Keith Foulke coming in to do a B.K. Kim imitation against the Pinstripes. He refused them even a Pyrrhic victory, but allowing them some ego reinforcement during a ninth inning in which A-Rod and Posada both left the yard. Other good news was that Coco Crisp was back doin...

Sox fans haven't had a lot to complain about, but the fifth starter position surely qualifies. Let's go to the statistics. Lenny DiNardo IP 25 H 40 R 21 HR 4 K 15 BB 12 WHIP 2.05 Opp. Ave .367 Astonishingly high WHIP Extremely low K.BB ratio (predicts ERA) Astronomical Opponents average I'm sure that Lenny DiNardo is a wonderful guy. But let's face it, he's not in a slump, he defines it right now. Success for the soft-tossing, crafty pitcher means incredible control and command, with the ability to disrupt hitters' timing. If DiNardo had no options, I'd simply argue for putting him into the 'long man' role, until he either proves serviceable or just designate him for assignment. Abe Alvarez gave me a little more hope, as he seemed 'sneaky', but a pair of homers by lefties Howard and Abreu wasn't confidence inspiring. When you max out on the gun at 84, you better be throwing it over a gum-wrapper strike zone, as Satchel Paige coul...

One quarter of the regular season completed, and the Sox have the third best record in the AL and lead the AL East. Could you realistically ask for more, especially with your putative fifth starter (Wells) hurt and only five games of action from Coco Crisp? Balance has been the key, with improving offense, superb defense leading the majors in the fewest errors, and generally good pitching, with improvement recently in the depth of the bullpen. Five starters are hitting over .300 (Youkilis, Nixon, Ramirez, Lowell, and Pena) and Loretta and Varitek have both been coming on solidly. Throw in David Ortiz with 14 homers and his presence in the lineup, the run generation will likely improve. Coming into today the Sox are in the upper half in offense (runs scored), and fifth in OPS, so they are likely to improve. The starters are seventh in ERA at 4.83 while the pen, led by Papelbon and Timlin are at 3.57. The bullpen K/BB ratio is an outstanding 2.74. The obvious pleasant surprises are Lowel...

Gary Peters ( http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/peterga01.shtml ) was a pretty good lefthander who pitched mostly for the White Sox and parts of three seasons for the Bosox. I remember Peters mostly for two contributions, hitting and his thoughts on 'wildness'. Although Peters won 19 games for the Pale hose one season and twenty the next, he was an excellent hitting pitcher (a .222 career average and 19 homers) and he described the 'worst kind of wildness'. The 'worst kind of wildness' is wildness in the strike zone. Peters was struggling at the time, from throwing too many strikes, in too many hittable places. Red Sox' righthander Jin Ho Cho, a career two game winner, couldn't help but throw strikes, which meant too many hits http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/choji01.shtml All of which brings us to the case of Curt Schilling, a potential Hall of Famer, and Sox legend 'Curtesy' of the Bloody Sock. Although Schilling's calling cards have b...

Where's Rick Pitino when you need him? Just when we need some negativity to keep our aspirations in check, the Sox settle down to pluck the Baltimoreans at Camden, 6-5. Most underappreciated Red Sox player currently? Mike Timlin, with a Gibsonesque E.R.A., still going strong after all these years. Papelbon, with another Solsbury Hill save, BOOM-BOOM-BOOM, I've come to take you home. The Sox with another solid defensive effort, led by Alex Gonzalez, who can play short for me any day, even challenging the Mendoza Line. Doctor Longball was in the house early, with taters by Manny and Nixon, although unfortunately Curt Schilling gave up three of his own. Is this pitch count hangover from the 133-pitch effort a few weeks ago? Baseball science argues that 'pitcher abuse' occurs as escalating pitch counts by each additional ten over one hundred. Of course, some of those 'abused' pitchers (the Yankees prime culprits) have kept on going. Contributions from virtually ever...

Sometimes it feels as though slumps are contagious, but it also seems that streaks are infectious. The Sox went bat-happy tonight, with thirteen hits, and three homers (Wily Mo Pena, Jason Varitek, and Mike Lowell) to take the opener at Baltimore 11-1. The Sox now have five regulars hitting over .300, including Youkilis, Ramirez, Nixon, Lowell, and the surprising Pena. For all the pish posh from all the baseball geniuses on Nitwit Radio, there are the warm facts about the Coyote (Wily Mo), a solid centerfield, and a .904 OPS (on-base slugging percentage). His part-time statistics translate to a projected 22 homer 94 RBI season, not too shabby for a guy who's taken merciless criticism. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett outfought some blisters to overpower the Orioles with a two-hitter through seven quality innings, after allowing a Miggy Tejada line drive homer just clearing the fence in the first. Rhetorically speaking... how many games a year does the manager decide? And how do we determine...

Maybe we need to come up with an 'All Weather Team', and the ability to cope with the foul stuff. I'll do my best, while we wait for our collective yards, basements, and streets to dry out. I don't know about the rest of the Nation, but we're none too dry here in Melrose. C - Phil Roof, as in we need a roof over our heads C - Johnny Bench, a good feature to have in the rain C/1B - Muddy Ruel, a dead ball era guy who toiled for 19 seasons 1B - active player, J.T. Snow...and imagine if all this rain (over 10" in some places in Massachusetts) were snow 2B - Rex Hudler (wasn't he called 'Hurricane' at one time?) 3B - Brooks Robinson, the Vacuum Cleaner 3B - Pete Rose, April showers bring May flowers, Rose also played 1B, 2B, OF, and a variety of betting strategies 3B - Wade Boggs, double credit for the wading and the resultant bog SS - Hubie Brooks (and you thought he was a basketball guy) OF - Tim Raines OF - Curt Flood, challenged the Reserve Clause ...

Although like most Red Sox games, it wasn't pretty, it was a 'W'. Thirteen was lucky as Jonathan Papelbon was the answer today, delivering a four out save including inducing the 'Juice Guy', Jason Giambi, to pop up to end the game. The Sox went well behind enemy lines emerging from New York with a pair of wins. Mark Loretta has forged a major offensive turnaround this week, raising his average from .220 to .280 in a week, and 'The Talisman', Wily Mo Pena had a hit and a pair of walks before giving way to Willie Harris who chipped in with a hit and speed to score a run. Mariano Rivera couldn't finish off Youkilis, who singled in an insurance run in the ninth. Not lost in the effort were a pair of key strikeouts by Mike Timlin in relief to preserve the 4-3 lead, as he punched out Giambi and A-Rod. In addition to a pair of homerun-robbing thefts by Bubba Crosby (off Lowell) and Damon (off Mirabelli), the Sox flasthed the leather as well, with Kevin Youkilis...

Homers flew out of The House That Ruth Built, but unfortunately the Bombers won the homerun derby and the game. Curt Schilling could take pride in some engineering feats, on the initiation side of taters from A-Rod, Posada, and 'Juice Guy' Jason Giambi. Giambi has lost that 'Twiggy' build variously attributed to parasites, steroid withdrawal, and anorexia nervosa. Kinda makes you wonder what the BALCO boy has cooked up lately. Last night's action was just one giant downer, less Lowell's double down streak broken (with a homer), and four Big Papi hits, including legging out an infield hit to rightcenter. Melky Cabrera, the locals' replacement rightfielder reminds you of whom? I can't put my finger on it yet, but I'm thinking about it. Tonight Tim Wakefield tries to recapture the magic against Chacon for the hated Yankees. Meanwhile, Kevin Youkilis continues to look solid at first base, and maybe Francona will rethink sitting 'Talisman' Wily Mo...

The Red Sox invaded 'The House That Ruth Built' to take on the more mercenary menagerie with Josh Beckett facing Randy Johnson. Beckett got better defense and run support, while Johnson was victimized by A-Rod and Melky Cabrera whose key errors led to 5 Sox unearned runs and a quick 7-2 lead. Doctor Longball showed up first in the person of Jason Giambi (looking pretty buff absent steroids -what's up, BALCO boy?) although later A-Gone, the Sox shortstop showed some pop driving an Aaron Small offering deep into the leftfield bleachers. The local faithful seemed none too happy, ushering RJ off to a chorus of boos, and howling mercilessly at Cabrera after his drop of Manny Ramirez's windblow pop to right. Evidently the fans must have been disappointed at the cancellation of 'Battery Night', as they lost the opportunity to pelt the opposition, or the home team with the souvenirs. Things you never see. J.T. Snow and Willie Harris both had ninth inning singles for the...

What do you feel when you see all the homeless on the street Who do you pray for at night before you go to sleep What do you feel when you look in the mirror Are you proud How do you sleep while the rest of us cry How do you dream when a mother has no chance to say goodbye How do you walk with your head held high Can you even look me in the eye And tell me why ---Dear Mr. President, Pink It's the battle of the Bronx, the continuation of the ancient rivalry between Boston and New York. It's the mercenary spirit versus a reasonable facsimile. It's A-Rod versus Big Papi, Johnny Damon versus Wily Mo Pena, Johnson and Mussina against Beckett and Schilling. It's only a game. For a few days, Boston and New York partisans will forget about homelessness and poverty, about underemployment and inflation. They will not contemplate war or peace. Still, it's only a game. 56,000 screaming beasts will implore their boys to deliver them from the Red Sox. Endless screenshots will sho...

How do you assess the effectiveness of a pitcher? Obviously, there's the eyeball test about what kind of stuff he has, the ability to control his pitches, velocity and movement of the fastball (four-seam, sinker, cutter), the sharpness of the breaking stuff, and the deception of changing speeds and hiding the ball. I spoke of quantitative measures, too, like K to BB ratio. High strikeout pitchers invariably have the ability to generate swings and misses. As I watch DiNardo today (dismayed by four consecutive passes in the first), I can't help but lack confidence in his ability to get swings and misses and his need to be razor sharp to get people out. I appreciate his willingness not to 'give in' (Orioles announcer Jim Palmer never surrendered a grand slam), but at some point you have to throw strikes. As the pitching coaches say at the mound, "throw strikes, Babe Ruth is dead." DiNardo just pulled a Matt Young on a tapper to the mound, and almost sealed his tr...

Last night for the most part the Sox played small ball, a series of singles culminating in a quick 5-0 lead. Absent catalyst Brian Roberts, the Orioles lacked their usual spark, and the Sox put an uncharacteristic hurt on a lefthanded pitcher, the mercurial Erik Bedard. When Bedard is on, he can be tough, but for the most part he couldn't get people out inside. Tim Wakefield's comfort zone with Doug Mirabelli shows, and one wonders whether this keeps Mirabelli around for years. Today, it's DiNardon't against the Birds, so we have to hope the Meatloaf Principle doesn't come true, "two out of three ain't bad." As for the upcoming Yankee series, you'd have to expect Beckett going Tuesday, Schilling Wednesday, and Wakefield on Thursday. Kudos to Francona for tweaking the lineup, getting Lowell and Pena up, and Nixon down. Nixon had a pair of hits against the lefthander. Stat Guy. Going into last night's action, the Sox were sixth in the AL in ERA,...

---------- AVE OBP SLG OPS Player A .311 .411 .467 .878 Player B .317 .362 .540 .902 Player C -- K/BB -- 15/6 WHIP-- 1.94 E.R.A.-- 9.58 HR --4 I'll come back to this. After 29 games, we have a pretty good idea what this team is concerning pitching and defense (overall improved, bullpen inconsistent in the middle), and they're showing signs offensively of more production. What does seem mildly mysterious is the lineup. Youkilis has been almost a revelation in the leadoff spot, although the 'Greek God of Walks' is also the Prince of Strikeouts. He'll do better. I'd have a low threshold to move Loretta down and Nixon into the 2 spot, although you can argue about the wisdom of back-to-back lefties with Nixon and Ortiz. Based on production, Loretta and Varitek both deserve fewer at bats and Wily Mo and Lowell more. 1B Youkilis CF Pena DH Ortiz LF Ramirez RF Nixon 3B Lowell C Varitek 2B Loret...

Last night the bullpen couldn't hold the lead, and tonight a 7-1 lead in the seventh looks shaky at best. Following a solid performance by Matt Clement and a serviceable one from Keith Foulke, Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez have taken yet another beating. They've seen the Caddyshack gopher as much as Denny McLain in his heyday, as tonight it was Glaus and Hinske who took them out of the yard. The top of the lineup had a breakout tonight with a homer from Kevin Youkilis and a pair of hits from Mark Loretta, who has been mired in a miserable slump. Pleasant surprises have obviously been Mike Lowell, who continues to hit solidly and Wily ("Coyote") Mo Pena, who is hitting over .300 and playing pretty good defense in center. Last night Jonathan Papelbon proved that he and his splitter were only human, and his efforts to reproduce Eckersley's 1990 season suffered a setback. http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/eckerde01.shtml In the 1989 to 1990 campaigns Eckersley wal...

Playoff atmosphere. Damon demonized. Mirabelli returns, climbing out of a police cruiser in uniform to catch Wakefield. Sox draw first blood symbolically, with Ortiz the architect with an RBI single and a smash against the wind into the Sox bullpen. Wakefield battled Wang to a draw, and the Sox bullpen with Timlin and Papelbon outpaced the hated Yankees, with Mike Myers serving as double agent. After the debacle in Tampa, the Sox rebounded with home cooking, warm bats, and cold weather, more typical of April than May. Holding the potent New York lineup to just four hits was quite an achievement, especially after the Bombers put up a three-spot in the fourth. Big plays . Aside from the Ortiz tater, the basestealing threat of Willie (Dave Roberts redux) Harris distracted Aaron Small enough to cause a Youkilis hit batsman. Loretta responded with a run-scoring single (once a game winning hit) before Ortiz put a Killebrewvian backspin shot into Papelbon's waiting glove. Alex Cora was in...