Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Stat Freaks Can't Know This

The ESPN (and other) site statistical info is terrific. Here are some samplers of truly incredible stuff.

Top 4 in Slugging - AL
Thome
Dye (huh)
Swisher (Moneyball guy)
Rios (this guy's killing us)

Least likely guy in the top 10 in runs scored?
9) Orlando Cabrera (40)
10) Brad Wilkerson (39)

Running Game
Crawford 20 of 23 SB
Posednik 18 of 25 (leads league in caught stealing)
Brian Roberts honorable mention, 9 thefts, not caught

On base percentage
12 ALers have .400 or higher OPS including 3 Sox (Manny at 3, Youk at 5, Nixon at 11)

Most RBI by an unknown?
Jose Lopez of Seattle checks in at numero 10, with 40!

And the Sabermetric winners are...?
The top 5 in runs created are Thome, Swisher, Hafner, Wells, and Sizemore

Number one in BB/K in the AL? A shocker.
Trot Nixon 1.73

Wily Mo Pena to have wrist surgery, so I'm going to have to find a new underdog to root for. I'd be leaning towards Manny Delcarmen, but I'm afraid he's on the Pawtucket Shuttle. Alex Cora may have to do, but it's hard to get a fan club from the pine.

David Pauley gets the nod tonight? Why? Obviously where you come up in the rotation counts, but I think that there are a pair of stats that are more predictive than others for success - K/BB ratio and WHIP.

Of the minor league starters with at least 30 innings, the WHIP leaders are: with their K/BB ratios

Alvarez 1.15 (soft tosser) 21/15 (too low)
Deschennes 1.22 (reliever prospect) 27/14
Ginter 1.23 (too many hits, very few walks) 35/7
Lester 1.38 (best long-term prospect) 40/20

Seibel 0.89 (coming off surgery?) 31/11
Smith 1.09 34/12
Gabbard 1.17 (lefty) 47/20
Pauley 1.18 (tonight's abusee) 47/17

The Red Sox get plenty of criticism for not throwing the pups into the fray from time to time (see Hanley Ramirez). Pitchers may be a different story, as it's much harder for a position player to come in and totally put the whammy on your chances than a pitcher. Lord knows the Bobby Sprowl story, and the Boston Massacre of almost 30 years ago.

The Globe describes Pauley as a 'fringe fifth starter'...which doesn't make him materially different from the other fifth starters in the league. If you were a 'mainstream' fifth starter, you wouldn't be the fifth starter.

Let's hope the Sox are hiring a full-time sports psychologist to work with the team, to reinforce positive vibes for the well, to fix the unwell, and to try to get the rest to stop reading the papers.

2 comments:

MikeHoncho said...

I disagree with your assessment on Wilkerson. The guy walks a ton and scores a lot of runs due to his high OBA. Sure he strikes out a lot but he has been a pretty productive player despite his shotty BA

Ron Sen, MD said...

I'm not saying Wilkerson's not a talent. I'm surprised he's in the top 10 in this category.