Red Sox Reality Check

Nomar Garciaparra toiled honestly for most of nine seasons for the Red Sox. He won batting titles and the hearts of many Sox fans, but ironically the Red Sox didn't win a world series until his departure, in favor of more defense and pitching. Nomar seemed like a sure fire Hall of Famer, hitting both line drives and shots over the Monster, and making that cross-body play from the hole. But a career is the sum of the body of work, and where are we now? Garciaparra finished in the top ten in the MVP voting five times, and even in 2006, having departed for the Dodgers, he finished 13th in the MVP voting. He won the Rookie of the Year in 1997 and his career batting average of .315 is just one point higher than his postseason average of .314. Among the "Hall of Fame Monitor" he has accumulated a score of 114, with a likely Hall of Famer at 100. Pretty impressive overall. Conversely, we tend to think of Derek Jeter first as a winner (four WS titles) and second as a statistical...

With Spring Training less than a month away, where does Johan Santana stand? Trade rumors ping-pong around, with Santana a candidate to go to Seattle, New York (Yankees or Mets), and of course, Boston. Santana's a terrific pitcher, and no doubt soon to cause more inflation than Central Bankers on speed, as he negotiates a long-term contract of staggering proportions...approaching the GDP of Lower Slobovia. As for our friendly neighbors to the south, the Yankees, they're in, they're out, then in, then out, and now in again. Phil Hughes (talent), Melky Cabrera (OR - overrated), and ABK (any body but Ian Kennedy). Hughes has shown flashes, and Kennedy an undersized right-hander with one major league win. You'd think that the Bombers were offering the sun, the moon, and the stars for their Cy Young winner. More like one of Jupiter's moons, and some comets to be named later. I don't think that either the Red Sox or the Yankees want Santana as much as they don't w...

All's quiet on the Red Sox front, excepting Roger Clemens' denials. And here's a newly discovered rodent ...

Andy Pettitte acknowledged using HGH in 2002 today. His confession makes former Sox' star Roger Clemens denials seem more hollow than ever. Pettitte took one for the team? Did Clemens take one for Roger Clemens? How does the song go? "Don't go away mad, just go away."

The Mitchell report changes nothing. Years ago someone surveyed Olympic athletes as to whether they would take a substance that guaranteed them a gold medal and had a fifty percent chance of killing them. Most said, "of course." Athletes at one level doing anything to win. "If you're not cheating, you're not trying," goes the refrain. Under the legal stewardship of Donald Fehr and Gene Orza, with billions of dollars at stake, could you expect something different? So the report 'confirms' many of the usual suspects and even some of the upper pantheon of baseball greatness, like Roger Clemens, come out tarnished. Do we have a positive drug test? No. But what is the motivation for clubhouse figures to lie, especially when they might have to go into court some day? They hate everyone, they're jealous of multimillionaire athletes raking in the dough? Supposedly Scott Boras commented that the report means nothing because it wasn't collectively barg...

Eric Gagne agrees to a 10 million dollar contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. Let me write that down again, "Eric Gagne agrees to a 10 million dollar contract with the Brewers." For gawd's sake Eric, rush up there, grab the first pen that writes, and sign. Get your physical, drug test, Rorschach test, Wonderlic test, or whatever. Gagne, once one of the most feared relievers in MLB, came to the Red Sox from the Rangers, and was nothing short of abysmal. In 18 2/3 innings he allowed 26 hits, 9 walks, and an ERA of 6.75. He had no command, but pretty good velocity. He was the ants at the Red Sox 2007 picnic. Why so much money? That's easy to explain. The falling value of the US dollar (Thanks, Dr. Bernanke) The high price of mediocrity Milwaukee executives losing their minds Mr. Gagne has incriminating photos of Brewer management? To his credit, Gagne made no excuses, never publicly complained, and was pretty much a stand up guy through his ordeal into the lowest level ...

Today I had a rather interesting discussion concerning the relative merits of Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. My colleague, whom I'll call Bruce the Yankee fan, insisted that he never judges players by April or September events, and that in his opinion, Melky Cabrera, with his track record was a superior player to Jacoby Ellsbury. Not always right, but never in doubt, I argued that Ellsbury's performance, sample size admittedly small, came during a pennant race and World Series. Also in a mere 33 games, Ellsbury had 6 win shares while the redoubtable Melk-Man has had two fairly full seasons with 13 apiece. Obviously, we're both biased, although I see Ellsbury as a .300 plus hitter, .375 OBP guy, with 15 homer potential and forty steal potential, plus a solid glove in center. I see Melky as the guy who played Trot Nixon's line drive into an inside the park home run. Obviously, the pinstripes devalue him in my eyes and raise him to the apotheosis of centerfielderhood a...

Bob WatsoN(Y) putting in the Francona Rule just shows how inane that MLB upper management continues to be. MLB should concern itself with more relevant issues that affect the game, including: Performance enhancing drugs (e.g. HGH) Competitive balance (apparently no concern in an era of prosperity for the industry overall) The uniform issue is particularly galling when you consider 'uniform' largely irrelevant from the days of Jose Cardenal (?) and tailored pants, Manny Ramirez wearing the pajama pants look, and the helmets of Trot Nixon and Manny, and scraggly cap look of Nixon, Timlin, and others. Now I'm not saying that MLB should be addressing the NFL type chinstrap and towel width concerns, rather exactly the opposite. A little individuality never hurt a game filled with narcissistic millionaires. Does whether Francona or anyone else in the league (coaches and players) wearing a pullover, game jersey, or official jacket affect the game in ANY way? Obviously, it doesn...

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Jacoby Ellsbury is now in the Santana trade offer. Obviously, we cannot know whether this is credible or not. I'd argue that Ellsbury MIGHT be a perennial all-star and everyday player, who has more value than a pitcher even of Santana's stature. Ellsbury's six win shares in just 33 games whetted the appetite of Sox fans, as well as the momentum shift that he provided in the post season after replacing Coco Crisp. I've already shown what the economic cost is likely to be for the Yankees should they sign Santana. They've already overspent this winter (Posada 15M/yr, A-Rod ~30M/yr, Rivera 15M/yr) and likely will have another 16M for Pettitte as well as the Jeter 17M, Abreu 16M, Damon 13M, and so on. In other words, they're spending like drunken sailors in the global Arms Race with the Red Sox. Not even counting a possible Santana acquisition that alone was 122 Million not counting the money they squandered on Roger Clemens. I...

Click spreadsheet entry to ENLARGE Let's presume, for the sake of argument, that the Yankees have the right mix of players and dollars to acquire Johan Santana. What's the economic impact, the win impact, and the relative differential over a six year period? I'm no economist, but I'll try. Every economist has to make projections, and these have plenty of room for error, on both sides. They don't account for injury, for the increased cost to insure contracts (let's say the Yankees might have to pay an additional twenty percent to insure the contract...I have no idea if this is right), and projecting performance is tough. As Yogi might say, "making predictions is hard, especially about the future." Bob Gibson averaged 20 wins a season, in four man rotations, from age 29-34. Roger Clemens averaged 13 wins a season from age 29-34. Pedro Martinez averaged 13.5 wins a season from age 29-34. Greg Maddux averaged 17 wins a season from age 29-34. Curt Schilling...

I've been all over the park on Julio Lugo offensively, from "he's way overrated", to "I was wrong", and finally "I was wrong about being wrong". In the end, whether it was sunspots, Tarot, or astrology, Lugo got the last laugh. But what about the defensive measure of the shortstop and other musings? I know this crowd moved far past range factor and zone ratings to evaluate shortstops, but let's look at a couple of integrated models. First, David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range . You've gotta love the title, because it sounds like you need a P.H.D. to understand it, but second it breaks down performance to a couple of decimal points, which reminds me of how we insanely pay homage to statistics beyond validity. But I digress. At the top of Pinto's points come the Colorado Rockies and Troy Tulowitzki. Our sample size of Tulowitzki was small, because we'd have to rate him the most overrated player since Mike Greenwell, although...

If you must have Santana , here he is. The most valued commodity in baseball is low-salaried talent under your control, an approach that allows you to overspend for other areas of weakness. The Red Sox, the most successful of the Moneyball teams, clearly understand this. Spending money to make a splash guarantees nothing, and you may just lock yourself into both bad contracts and bad chemistry. Among the Red Sox high value, low cost contracts include: Kevin Youkilis Jonathan Papelbon Dustin Pedroia Jacoby Ellsbury Jon Lester Clay Buchholz Having these 'commodities', baseball's 'raw materials' as it were, is akin to having oil or gold in the ground, proven reserves, which almost certainly will rise in value. Established players carry higher price tags for past production, and expected production at similar levels to the past. For example, with Mike Lowell , is he more likely to hit .320 with 25 homers and 120 RBI, or hit .290 with 20 homers and 90 RBI? I'd argue...

While the Red Sox bask in offseason glory, what burning topics should we discuss? David Eckstein, free agent, seeks a contract in the Julio Lugo (four years, thirty-six million dollars) range. Eckstein was Dustin Pedroia before Dustin Pedroia. He's small, not especially fast, but has been a productive player. From a Win Shares perpective, it is what it is. Eckstein's best OPS in the past four years was .758, and he averaged less than four home runs and forty RBI for the past four seasons. His big year had 8 homers, 61 RBI, and 90 runs scored. In 2005, his outlier year, he had 28 Win Shares, simply astonishing. The other three years, you're looking at 9, 12, and 11. Admittedly, he's a feisty 'overachiever', especially if you have a "Boras Book" focusing entirely on 2005. But anybody paying him nine million a year deserves the title, "former GM". Carlos Silva is supposed to be the hot property starter this offseason? Yes, you may remember him o...

I don't have a problem with baseball players, barkeeps, or barristers taking the biggest dollar. Maybe Mom would slap me upside the head for taking less.We do have core values, however, of which honor remains one. Players, managers, and ownership have limited loyalty to each other, so our loyalty to branding (some say laundry) may be misplaced.If the Lowells (see Greenwells, Clemens, Pedros of bygone days) want to take the biggest buck, just do it. Do we need the reiteration of unrequited love for the Hub and its fans? Maybe Dustin Pedroia should just say, "I deserved the award, I busted my hump and gave up my body, and nobody did it better." At least that's honest. We like Mike. If he 'needs' the recognition and the considerable difference in money available from FA, then that's his right. But it would be refreshing to hear, "I simply took the most money." That's acceptable, but we'll probable not hear it...

Mike Lowell stands perched on the opportunity of a baseball lifetime, free agency after earning the MVP in the World Series. More power to him, I guess. I believe in the free market, and if I could do what Mike Lowell can do, then I'd have the right to choose how much money I'd make and who would pay me. Will he be happier in Philadelphia with fourteen million a year and four years? If he is, then that's his right, earned, by Curt Flood, Catfish Hunter, and Andy Messersmith. Yes, I got to see those dinosaurs play, Hunter dishing out those comfortable 0 for 4s when baseball games lasted two and a half hours on a long day. As for A-Rod, Mike Lupica has a really compelling article about A-Rod's zero for twenty-seven in the postseason in the past few seasons with men on base. Signing A-Rod turns your team into a circus after your GM has become the puppet in Scott Boras' puppet show. Now I'm not saying Boras isn't the best at what he does. Look what he did for B...

Identifying heroes comes easily to sports fans. We have Josh Beckett, an unblemished 4-0 in the playoffs, Curt Schilling, the venerable warrior, pundit, and blogger. Who doesn't like Big Papi the lethal teddy bear DH and sometimes first baseman, or Jacoby Ellsbury, our latest answer to Ricochet Rabbit trivia? You have ownership which has revitalized the team and the ballpark, bringing revenues to challenge the Yankees, introducing Nascar to New Englanders, and raising water prices to something only the MWRA can dream about. We have local guy Theo Epstein, freed from the gorilla suit, now a 600 pound gorilla as Sox GM. And Terry Francona, who never has to buy a drink again, and can freely pass throughout the six-state region without echoes of "you suck, Francona", ever. But buried somewhere in the bunker at Fenway lives a tall stat geek. Management embraced the lanky Kansas loner, who pores through baseball statistics looking for nuggets, advantages that can give the Sox t...

In addition to having won a pair of World Championships in four seasons, the Red Sox have created payroll flexibility through development. Going into next season the Sox presumably can pony up a payroll of 150,000 dollars Here's the 2007 Salary picture . Let's just use some approximations to guesstimate 2008. C - Varitek 11,000,000 C2 TBA 2,000,000 1B Youkilis 1,000,000 (presumes big raise, no long-term deal yet) DH Ortiz 13,000,000 2B Pedroia 450,000 SS Lugo 8,250,000 3B Lowell 14,000,000 (a very big assumption, may not be true) LF Ramirez 18,000,000 CF Ellsbury 400,000 RF Drew 14,400,000 Ut Cora 2,000,000 UO Kielty 2,000,000 UO Moss 400,000 13 Positions 86,900,000 Pitching Beckett 10000000 Schilling 11000000 Wakefield 4000000 Matsuzaka 7000000 Buchholz 400000 Lester 400000 Tavarez 3800000 Papelbon 1000000 (presumes raise, no long-term deal) Snyder 600000 Okajima 122...

The Sox have exercised the options on Tim Wakefield and Yoyo Julian Tavarez. At four million dollars and less for Tavarez, this makes a lot of sense, especially with the free agency for Curt Schilling. Will the Sox pony up the big dollars for Schilling and Mike Lowell? I'd guess that lowell has a better chance of returning than Schilling, but the latter gets a debt of gratitude for helping orchestrate a pair of championships. Terry Francona can't get an MRI? Must be the horseshoe somewhere in his anatomy. Seriously, the Sox skipper kept the team going in one direction, deals with a myriad of complex personalities and kept the issues in house. Can't imagine that Coco Crisp was wild about being replaced by Jacoby Ellsbury in the ALCS and Series, but he didn't publicly complain. The "starting bid" on A-Rod comes in at 350 million? Obviously, the American Peso has taken a hit under the weight of the Federal Reserve but are you kidding? That's why they call th...