Red Sox Reality Check

The New York Yankees, desperate to make the playoffs, completed their "deal with the devil" agreeing to an eight year, 180 million dollar contract with Mark Teixeira. GM Brian Cashman surely will announce, "it's not about the money, but rather returning a championship caliber team to our fans who deserve one (for the outlandish money they'll be paying for tickets)." The Yankees seem to have cornered the market on the high-priced spread, with Alex Rodriguez, Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter all getting paid at least 17 million dollars annually, and recent free agent pitcher A.J. Burnett a mere piker at 16 plus extra large annually. The Yankees weren't content to pay only twenty-three million dollars in luxury tax, as they'll try to top that. Fans across America are adopting the "Yankee Hater" culture, this one from Seattle. Will Boston fans concede the season after the Yankees have gone Over the Hot Stove Top in acquiring the best tw...

Player A 152 552 99 159 29 4 37 103 5 1 70 81 .288 .368 .556 Player B 162 644 112 194 41 3 43 144 4 0 72 124 .301 .379 .575 The measure of greatness . Player A's lines were arguably the WORST of his career up to age 35. He was an OPS +149 then. In fact, the stat line for Player A occurred when he was 35, during the downside of his career. At age 25 player A also had 40 stolen bases as well as .296/.369/.557 and OPS +146 relative to the rest of the league. Player B's stat line is the BEST of his career, at age 25, with an OPS + 144. Player B is Mark Teixeira, looking for over 22 million dollars a year. Player A, Willie Mays. Moral of the story? Nobody would have enough money to pay Willie Mays today.

Click chart to ENLARGE. The Hardball Times has a rating system to project player performance. Where exactly does Mark Teixeira fit on the non-Borassian ratings scale? Using their scale, he's in the vicinity of the top 10 offensive players. No doubt that will translate into "mucho dinero" as 4 of the top 5 players are 'Latin' ballplayers. I wonder how much Barry Bonds would cost...

Mark Teixeira will be an excellent player, regardless of whether he finds a home in Boston or not. Just where does Teixeira fit in the hierarchy of MLB? He's in the top ten in OPS in MLB. _____________________________________________ For this stage in his career, he's in very good company. ____________________________________________ "A man has to feed his family." Nobody could say he's not been a good provider. ____________________________________________ "You can judge a man by the company he keeps."

...and visions of sugarplums danced in their heads. What will the Red Sox lineup look like in 2009? The Red Sox are said to be in final negotiations with uber-agent Scott Boras for Mark Teixeira. You never know. CF - Jacoby Ellsbury 2B - Dustin Pedroia DH - David Ortiz 1B - Mark Teixeira 3B - Kevin Youkilis RF - J.D. Drew LF - Jason Bay SS - Jed Lowrie C - Jason Varitek

We'll never get him. It breaks the rule! "I before 'E' except after 'C', or when sounded like 'A' as in neighbor and weigh (edited should be hit over the head with a Strunk and White)." Or the exceptions: "neither foreign financier seized either species of weird leisure." Or Teixeira.

Tony Mazz has a new blog entry up, including the following: "Somewhere along the line, someone needs to devise a system in which people who post comments on the internet are required to provide their real names and, perhaps, places of employment. This would help eliminate the legions of nitwits and cowards who shred anything and everything in their path while hiding in their mothers’ basements." Columns center around opinions, and opinions sometimes derive from facts, but often from false beliefs that fail to distinguish causation from correlation. In 1968, Ken Harrelson had a 1.000 fielding percentage in right field for the Red Sox. Few observers thought that Harrelson was a Gold Glove outfielder. The imprimatur of a major newspaper now qualifies a sportswriter as being infallible based on experience, access, and judgment . Other opinions based on statistics, close observation of professional sports for over forty-five years, and spectacularly unsuccessful college and amateu...

As the General Manager of a professional sports franchise (or any business) what properties do you value? Should the Red Sox be any different? Putting together a list, I'd certainly include the following. A history of 'winning', that is, the capability of contributing to an organizational culture of winning. How important is winning to the player? The Jose' Canseco 'what's the big deal about winning all the time' attitude simply disqualifies the player. The ability to make the players around you better. Baseball being the consummate team sport marked by individual achievement, that's less of a factor than for example, basketball. The capability to dominate the game via your presence, preferably on a regular basis. Versatility. Is the player a 'one-trick pony' or an all-around achiever? How is the player's performance trending? Consistency Durability (will also incorporate age and health status) What is the player's locker room presence? T...

Tony Mazz with a big apology to readers for his overly ardent defense of Jason Varitek. It's not easy to acknowledge having erred. As a physician, I have a regular seat at the humility table and as an ardent stock trader , it's simply daily dining.

The Yankees sign A.J. Burnett to a 5 year contract for 82.5 million dollars. What exactly is that likely to mean? Here is a table of the five year records of some major league pitchers, in fact some of the best in recent history. Many pitched during the four-man rotation era, and many are or will end up in the Hall of Fame. Nobody would say A.J. Burnett is the equal of ANY of them. Greg Maddux averaged nearly eighteen wins, Curt Schilling sixteen, Roger Clemens fifteen, Nolan Ryan fourteen, and Pedro Martinez ten during this age frame. Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale were done, and Juan Marichal on the downside. Here are A.J. Burnett's similarity scores from Baseball Reference . All of these pitchers are pretty good but how many would you want to pony up over sixteen million a year for, for FIVE years? As they say, "a fool and his money are soon parted."

Today Tony Massarotti has a piece about Jason Varitek in the Globe online . There are two possibilities: Massarotti has lost all perspective about Jason Varitek Massarotti has simply lost his mind in the context of baseball and modern America We are in the midst of the biggest financial crisis in the past seventy-nine years. Unemployment has surged, Americans are struggling as many have not in our lifetime, and the American standard of living is falling. Meanwhile, Massarotti worries about how the Red Sox might be hurting the feelings of an aging star with declining skills whose principal worry is where his next twelve to twenty million dollars comes from. Nobody questions Varitek's work ethic. We willingly grant him credit for his role in shepherding the Red Sox pitching staff through recent success, achievement earned through a greater focus on run prevention. Varitek has sacrificed his body for the Red Sox, from daily ice immersions to recovery from serious injury. But we also r...

Not much to talk about these days in MLB. So, we'll have to go with some randoms...and a non-Sox memorable video. D-Lowe making the rounds in the Globe today, courtesy of Nick Cafardo. The current Sox rotation is obviously up in the air, pending health concerns and trades. The choices for now? Josh Beckett Jon Lester Daisuke Matsuzaka Justin Masterson Tim Wakefield Michael Bowden Clay Buchholz If Masterson pitched similar to his level of 2007 (starting), I think it would be reasonable to think he could win twelve games or more. What is the incremental win total for Derek Lowe likely to be for the extra tens of millions? Probably three to five tops. The Manny Watch. The Boston Globe suggests that Boras might want Teixeira on the Sox, Sabathia and Manny to the Angels, and Lowe to the Yankees to maximize salaries. Apropos of nothing...Did Manny really take the radio out of his expensive car BEFORE he sold it? Well, the guy can really hit. At least nobody's thinking DP's on ...

The economic backdrop has resulted in a glacial start to the free agent market...unless one considers Damaso Marte and Jeremy Affeldt as an avalanche. Ryan Dempster obviously is the exception, and nobody doubts that the premium class of Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and Manny Ramirez will get paid. But how many major corporations, lining up at the public trough in Bailout Nation will be plunking down megabucks for luxury boxes and blocks of season tickets. And if they do, should we, socialist sponsors of their profligacy, scream bloody murder. Should the employees of AIG whose annuities evaporated watch the fat cats sit in luxury boxes and get ' retention payments '? First, let's understand that major league baseball owners are extraordinarily wealthy, competitive people who want to win but live by the rules of Warren Buffett: Rule one. Don't lose money. Rule two. Never forget rule one. Most likely hold a diversified investment portfolio. Here is a list of some asset cl...

Dustin Pedroia capped a stellar season by receiving 16 of 28 votes to capture the American League Most Valuable Player award. Pedroia became the de facto team leader during the season with bot a spectacular offensive and defensive season. Remarkably one scribe, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News omitted Pedroia from any of the ten choices available on his ballot. On WEEI, Grant said he relied on statistical data concerning run production. Here are the raw data on Pedroia. Silver Slugger, 2b All-Star selection Gold Glove Batting - 2nd Hits - 1st Total bases - 4th Runs created - 3rd Doubles - 1st At bats per strikeout - 2nd Power-speed number - 8th Hall of Fame Monitor - 49 (including MVP points) (likely Hall of Famer > 100) You can easily argue whether Pedroia deserved to be the top choice among others with outstanding seasons. These include Youkilis, Quentin, Hamilton, Morneau, K-Rod, Longoria, Sizemore, and so forth. But to have the obligation and responsibility to vote for the...

Well, maybe not so much. Hey, Theo! Need a fig leaf. Scott '6 percent' Boras informs us that Jason Varitek's asking price is 52 million dollars. Are we talking Zimbabwe dollars or something less evanescent? The Red Sox have needs (like all teams), and what they don't need is thirty million (three by ten) reasons not to start on a more permanent solution to the catching position. If Varitek walks, they can turn the draft impact into more young pitching if they need to trade a young pitcher. As for the Teixeira sweepstakes, I'm willing to wait for Lars Anderson who is coming fast ...but of course, the Sox should drive up the price for the Yankees or the Angels, although they tend to be a take it or leave it negotiator. Certainly, the addition of Teixeira would be a great addition, and the Sox have some money coming off the table (Manny, Varitek(?), Schilling), Timlin, Lugo(?)). As for the return of Derek Lowe, don't hold your breath. Consider the quote from Coyote...

Everybody in baseball wants to get paid. Some want to be paid for what they have done and others wish to be paid for what they are likely to do. Uberagent Scott Boras wants to get paid, too, and will paint as rosy a picture as possible for Jason Varitek. Teammates naturally support each other's desire to get paid as well. First, the "why you must resign ' The Captain' " for megabucks All-Star catcher Red Sox .597 winning percentage with him catching this season Key cog in 2004 and 2007 championship run Caught four no-hitters Game winning homer in ALCS Game 6 Legendary preparation Leadership Experience Intangibles Limited alternatives within the Red Sox current control Young pitchers in developmental stage (Masterson, Bowden, Buchholz) Next, why the Red Sox have to think very, very hard about the extent (money) and duration (years) of contract 1273 career games catching* Zero batting win shares this season Declining win shares trend .220 batting, .672 OPS this seas...

Failure is not fatal , but failure to change might be. John Wooden Is the glass half empty or half full? The Red Sox went deep into the postseason, but lacked the consistency or the staying power to get to the World Series for the third time in five years. The Tampa Bay Death Rays beat them at what had been their game, pitching and power, blending youth and enthusiasm to outlast the Sox. What went right? What went wrong? What's next? The positives . The Red Sox played superior defense throughout the post-season. Even without Gold Glover Mike Lowell at third and the move of Gold Glover Kevin Youkilis from first, the Sox showed why defense matters. Excepting Dustin Pedroia's relay throw up the line last night, for the most part the overall defensive execution excelled. Much of the bullpen overachieved. Jonathan Papelbon showed why he is among the top postseason pitchers in history, remaining unscored upon. Hideki Okajima came up big repeatedly. Young Justin Masterson raised the s...

Among stock traders, discussion exists about 'the pain trade', that is, the market doing what will cause the most people the most pain. Red Sox fans know a little bit about that. Having grown up in the sixties, I knew the Days of Hopelessness, eclipsed forever by 1967 and 'The Impossible Dream', where competitiveness replaced failure. To paraphrase John Wooden, "failure is not fatal, but failure to change can be." Sox fans accepted the Gibson-Brock defeat of 1967 and the Big Red Machine rollover in 1975 with equanimity. The Shea It Ain't So debacle of 1986 seemed the final straw, until 2003 and Gradygate. Of course, a pair of World Series victories erases a lot of heartache. All of which brings us to the 2008 ALCS playoffs. Last night we got a little pain early, with the TBS BS that shut down their transmission and landed Steve Harvey in our laps. Harvey's Wallbangers 'OK' and Steve Harvey reruns NOT. Could the Sox carry momentum from Game 5...

"Wake" then Funeral...NOT The Resurrection "They have a word for it in English-Youneverknow"- Joaquin Andujar I was on call last night and a patient called about 1 AM... I said "How 'bout them Sox?" He said, "they lost." When I told him about the rally he simply said, "You're %&$ing me." The Sox comeback may not have eclipsed "the steal" but clearly tops my previous other memory, an eight run deficit overcome in 1967 against the Angels...must have been the Los Angeles Angels in ten team baseball. The two out magic, led by Dustin Pedroia in the seventh, continued with homers by Papi (61 consecutive homerless postseason at bats), Drew, and yet more magic by two out singles by Coco Crisp (8th) and J.D. Drew (9th) turned despair into revival. As Sean Connery reminded us in "Finding Forrester", there was only one word for it, "remarkable".

Thus far the Sox have yet to be able to generate anything vaguely resembling offense. I won't say Kazmir looks like Sandy Koufax, Ron Guidry, or even Frank Tanana in his prime. In fact, he's simply dominated the Sox with ordinary stuff. Daisuke Matsuzaka didn't have it, and the Death Rays have pitch-slapped the Boston Brahmins with the long ball and superior pitching. A number of Sox have simply pulled Houdinis (disappearing acts) during this series. The leadoff spot, David Ortiz, and Jason Varitek have just been AWOL. At least Mike Lowell had a legitimate excuse. The Sox have the talent, but simply haven't played well. Starting pitching greatly underperformed and the bullpen was spotty. Will Jason Varitek get a rousing departure ovation? Players can lose it offensively in dramatic fashion. Remember how quickly Jim Rice's career abruptly fell. The disappointment isn't so much in defeat (if it ensues) but in the margin in which the Rays overwhelmed and outclassed...

What's with the Hot Stove League talk? Let it go. I don't want to talk about pitching roles, trades and free agency, or retirements during the ALCS. Is A-Rod dictating the discussion? Last night's game certainly had both a dramatic and artistic success. Daisuke Matsuzaka carried a no-no into the 7th, out of trouble (first and third no out), and the bullpen got it done, with Okajima, Masterson, and Papelbon all perfect. Kevin Youkilis' value has manifested itself with his post-season contribution at third base, and Mark Kotsay's success reflects well on the organization and Kotsay. Dustin Pedroia added a couple of appearances on base, made a brilliant defensive play out of the shift, and swiped a key bag leading to scoring the second run. Once again, Terry Francona gets overlooked for his managerial decisions: Optimizing rest with his rotation Flawless bullpen execution, with the sinkerballer Masterson getting the DP Getting the key basehit from Mark Kotsay in his ro...

Don Drysdale used to take a shortcut to an intentional walk...hit the batter. Grant Balfour comes in to face J.D. Drew with men on second and third and nearly beans him. Ron Darling says, "we know Balfour's not trying to hit him." I'm not saying he threw at his head, just that he wasn't particularly concerned about hitting Drew either. Daisuke Matsuzaka has pitched brilliantly threw seven, but has been on the bench for 'ever' in the eighth, with pitching changes, wildness and high pitch counts. The defense tonight has excelled with only Carl Crawford's inability to snag Kevin Youkilis' hooking line drive standing out as a 'catchable' moment. What will Terry Francona do in the bottom of the eighth? Matsuzaka didn't look like he was headed for the showers. Whatever one thinks of Matsuzaka (33 wins in two years, including a Japanese pitcher record in the US), he's not afraid to take the ball. I'll guess that he leaves Matsuzaka in ...

The Red Sox lost eight of nine to the Angels during the regular season. So what? When it has counted, the Sox have dominated the Halos winning twelve of thirteen postseason contests. What have you done for us lately? Just win, baby! The Angels botched the squeeze play, had regular defensive lapses, and got outpitched and outplayed. The better team? By what standard? The Angels ace couldn't win once, and Jon Lester, almost traded for Johan Santana moves to the ALCS while the Mets work on their short game. Karma. Complaining that you're the better team just doesn't get it done. The Patriots lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl, because the Giants outplayed them. The Sox won for the same reason. The Sox also won with limited offense from Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, and a subpar performance from Josh Beckett. Mike Lowell finished the series on the DL and J.D. Drew spent much of the series in Ben Gay City. And what of the Sox and the Rays? The Rays have solid pitching (Shiel...

The Sox returned home to "America's Most Beloved Ballpark" (or something like that) amidst a tidal wave of political advertisements on TBS. God forbid. Josh Beckett had good stuff, but lacking command, yielded a pair of homers to the Angels' Mike Napoli. So the Angels have 100 percent of their runs via the home run. Somewhere during the playoffs we heard that the White Sox lead the majors with 47 percent via long distance. Health problems probably didn't affect the Sox as much as their decision to stay away from Joe Saunders with J.D. Drew. Mike Lowell hasn't looked great either offensively or defensively so far. As for the 'you never see this', Jacoby Ellsbury had a three run single that fell between the infield and Torii Hunter, who may not be moving as well after his 'hopping mad' close play at first in Game 2. The second play du jour was Delcarmen late on covering first on a grounder to Youkilis because another broken maple bat blocked his ...

The last time the Sox faced the Angels, they were in the last throes of the Ramirez era, with Manny quitting on the team. Manny's migration improved two teams, illustrated today. Jon Lester affirmed Terry Francona's faith with seven strong innings (one earned run), and superior eighth inning defense by Jacoby Ellsbury and Youkilis preserved a lead on a two-run Bay Blast. Ellsbury made a remarkable diving catch and Youk made a brilliant right field to third base throw on a blooper over his head to nail Vlad G trying to go first to third. Lester's win runs his career W-L record to 29-8. Heady stuff, verily. The Sox continued their postseason dominance over the Angels, and will that weigh on them? Jonathan Papelbon closed out the Halos, striking out the side in the 9th. Jacoby Ellsbury has clearly worked to seal the inside hole he had, and added a pair of stolen bases and four hits (one was erroneously called an error, but okay it's three) in solidifying his macro-pest sta...

I saw a great pitching effort today. But it wasn't at Fenway. Tim Lincecum above (Cy Dwarf) won his eighteenth game, and had strikeouts for the first nine outs of the game, the first time that has been done since 1986. Amidst chants of "Beat LA" the Giants' ace fanned thirteen as the 24 year old showed why he is one of the top pitchers in the game. 39,167 fans showed up, and Manny sat out with many of the LA regulars. AT&T Park is truly magnificent, with a great fan environment, terrific sightlines and as my son reminded, a great experience instead of a winnng team. The park footprint must be triple Fenway. Conor also remarked the Giants were a team where AL players 'went to die'. The Giants' lineup included Rich Aurilia, Benji Molina and Omar Vizquel, and Randy Winn and Dave 'The Steal' Roberts came off the bench. I don't think anyone on the Giants except maybe Molina could start for the Sox. Vizquel's departure in the fifth was met wi...

The Red Sox version 2008.1 are on the cusp of making the playoffs. When you have the kind of talent and payroll the Sox have, you're supposed to qualify. In fact, the Yankees have convenient excuses (Wang, Posada, Hughes) for their showing, but what has that got to do with the Melk-man not delivering and Robinson Cano dogging it? None of us can know how the Lowell injury will impact him going forward. He's obviously a gamer, but it became painful to watch him play. Kevin Youkilis is certainly an insurance policy, especially with Lars Anderson coming fast from the minors. Anderson is that tantalizing 'Justin Morneau' kind of first baseman that Sox fans can look forward to. L'Affaire Ramirez just won't die. However, the New Guy, a.k.a. Jason Bay has hit almost .300 (.299) with eight homers, thirty-six runs, and thirty-four RBI in 41 games. Not too shabby. He actually looks like he's having fun, too. Jon Lester has been terrific this season, but is Rogers Cente...

The Red Sox had a problem at Fenway Park. It wasn't managerial incompetence or a lack of talent on the field. The problem was Fenway Park and the ballpark experience. Adding seats contributed revenue, as did more signage, and aggressive merchandising. But more than renovating the ballpark, they improved the experience. On a previous visit to Fenway, I criticized fan behavior that frankly embarrassed me and my family, with drunken, disorderly, foul-mouthed fans ultimately removed in the eighth inning. The Sox provide a Help Number to address this before the game. I saw and heard no problems. The concourses are much improved for negotiating the ballpark. Historically, the sound system wasn't great, but the musical selection was worse. The infield looked terrific and the ground crew repeatedly manicured it during the game. No, every fan didn't get a visit from Sox VP of Merchandising Sam Kennedy, but he wasn't visiting me, rather my host from San Diego. My host was more th...

I saw a fellow wearing a Red Sox "Ramirez 24" jersey the other day. Okay, we like the Sox and maybe even Manny, but if I had a Sox Ramirez jersey, would I wear it, or burn it in effigy? Burn, baby, burn. Terry Francona has done a great job as Red Sox manager. I'll give him a pass on practically anything, but I'll argue that his decision to bring in an 'unrested' Jonathan Papelbon last night affected TWO games, last night's and tonight's, as now Cinco Ocho is unavailabe tonight. No problemo, Tito. Jacoby Ellsbury makes another diving catch tonight. Does he time it just right to make these diving catches? We used to call those guys 'shapers' back in the day. A US Olympic hockey player came over to my house tonight to visit my daughters, and even watch a little of the Sox game. Best news? She brought macadamia nut, white chocolate chip cookies. If you could have a vanity plate with a Red Sox memory etched in just six characters, what would it be? ...

Michael Bowden . Can we get a transfusion for Buchholz?

Ka-ching! The Red Sox established the MLB record for consecutive sellouts tonight, with the Sox leading 3-0 in the eighth inning. Jon Lester re-established himself as the co-ace of the starting staff with 7 2/3 innings of shutout baseball punctuated by 9 strikeouts. When the Rays threatened in the eighth with a pair of runners in scoring position, Jonathan Papelbon came in to blow away Rocco Baldelli (authoring a Golden Sombrero with four strikeouts) with 97 mph heat. Who would have thought in April that a September series with Tampa would have so much meaning? My (nameless) Yankee fan friend finds this season 'boring'. Who would've thunk it? The Red Sox have an astonishing impact on everyday conversation in the hospital. We're still debating the Mannygate departure. A nurse called me over to show me her notebook, with an 8 1/2 by 11 inch color photo of Mike Lowell. Another nurse, (I'll call her Melissa) waxed apologetic over 'Wake's' disaster Saturday. ...

Blind adherence to data, especially bad data, and you need a checkup from the neck up. Still... The Red Sox, at least in the history I know, struggle with Texas. Why the difference in 2008? The Rangers still have a potent offense, but okay, their pitching lacks a certain savoir faire . Where would the Sox be without Coco Crisp, who has well over 300 plate appearances, and has done yeoman work lately? Is Jacoby Ellsbury finally starting to handle that inside stuff? Do you think he could run back kickoffs for the Patriots? Jason Varitek looks like a new guy at the plate. Was it just a matter of mean reversion? Does anybody seriously think the Sox would have played this well with Manny Ramirez on strike? Will the real Manny Delcarmen please stand up? In his last ten games (prior to tonight) he pitched ten innings allowing 3 hits, 2 runs (both in one game), 7 walks and 11 strikeouts. He can overpower opponents and frustrate fans. How important is having Josh Beckett back healthy? So you th...

Michael Bowden made his MLB debut tonight and didn't disappoint. He walked the leadoff hitter, but no more, and held the potent White Sox to two runs in five innings. Yes, he got away with some pitches, but he showed a willingness to pitch the right-handed hitters inside and had a nice change with some good movement down-and-in to the right hander. Obviously he still needs work on the breaking stuff but he had good poise and a live fastball. Dustin Pedroia continues to drive the Pale Hose batty with his hitting, defense, and baserunning, with a brilliant slide to 'steal' a double. Oh yeah, and Dustin hit cleanup. You ask why Mark Kotsay is hitting fifth against Buehrle, and Kotsay promptly delivers a pair of doubles. There's that stat prep thingy... Stuff you never see: Terry Francona came out to argue a safe call (to the Sox benefit). Oh, yeah! Lou Merloni correctly points out on the pre-game show that replay will become more controversial when its absence blows a crit...

Dustin Pedroia has had a phenomenal season for the Red Sox. As terrific as he has been this season, far exceeding many observers expectations, how does his season rank within the best players in the American League? Win Shares model overall contribution to a team's winning, and serve as excellent comparisons between players and also allow for trending. Bill James created the multifactorial model, and the data is regularly updated on The Hardball Times . As a reference, a season total of 20 equates to "All-Star" performance and 30 or more represents MVP type seasons. The Rangers slugging second baseman Ian Kinsler leads the AL with 28, followed closely by Justin Morneau of Minnesota and Grady Sizemore of Cleveland. Kevin Youkilis leads the Red Sox with 24, tied for fifth in the AL, and Pedroia is tied for 18th, heady stuff for a guy who really struggled early as a rookie. Pedroia also leads AL second basemen in fielding Win Shares. Not too shabby.

As the Red Sox turn into the home stretch of their playoff run, what do we see? In head-to-head matches in the division, where would you rank the Sox? This is not ranking the Sox versus the rest of the league, just in divisional play. Off the top it feels like: Tampa Toronto New York Boston Baltimore The reality of intra-divisional play? Tampa 28-19 Toronto 24-22 New York 26-24 Boston 24-25 Baltimore 20-32 So, mirabile dictu , the 'feel' matches the fit. Unfortunately. A theme for the season has been "play better". And so it is. The Sox have overachieved at several positions, particularly Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. Since the All-Star break the Red Sox are seven in OPS and ninth in runs/game in the AL. Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp together in the outfield haven't produced a lot of pop, which means Coco now delivers a home run. Yes, injuries do matter (Lowell, Drew) but other teams have injuries as well, most notably the Rays without Crawford and ...

Few professions expect the youngest members to be at the peak of their craft. Is baseball so different? Clay Buchholz achieved baseball immortality with a no-hitter in his second start, but Great Expectations haven't achieved fulfillment in year two. Yet the day after Clay gets relocated for more seasoning at Portland, the United States mens' and womens' 400 meter sprint relay teams BOTH drop the baton in the semifinal heats. Move over, Clay. Roger Kahn's "The Head Game" reviews some of the great pitchers through time, and the title is no accident. A great career requires unusual health, superior ability (the stuff the make people miss), and consistent attack of not only the strike zone but hitters' weaknesses. Left-handed hitters often have a 'blind spot' down and in (note Jacoby Ellsbury), as they become accustomed to seeing right-handed pitchers whose 'natural corner' is down and AWAY. Right handed hitters often struggle with hard stuff ...

The current version of the Red Sox reminds me of the movie 'Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid'. Unfortunately, the Sox aren't Butch or Sundance, but the relentless posse chasing them. "Who are those guys?" Three quarters of the way through the season, we're trying to figure out who this team really is. The heart of the team (David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek) has struggled with injury and offensive inconsistency. A pair of younger players (Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia) have become the soul of the team, with a dogged determination that makes every at-bat Armageddon. The corner outfielders are solid and at times have been spectacular. The other two kids, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie have been polar opposites. Ellsbury, cursed by unlimited potential, has not met the fans' expectations while Lowrie has overachieved from day one, supplanting the high-priced shortstop du jour, Julio Lugo. The pitching staff likewise has turned inside out. Cy You...

After a big weekend thrashing at the hands of the Jays, Sox fans enjoyed a plucking of the Orioles, highlighted by a pair of homers by Jason Bay, who had four RBI and a stolen base. Jon Lester raised his record to 12-4 while lowering his eighth place ERA in the AL to 3.18 with seven innings of one-run ball. Manny Delcarmen helped bring the Orioles back with 8th inning inconsistency, with a pair of two out walks leading to an Orioles comeback to 4-3. Sox fans are frustrated by the inconsistency day-to-day, with erratic pitching ranging from the bullpen, and recent struggles from the back end of the starting rotation. The constants have been Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, the latter the Red Sox MVP this season so far, and the former largely a model of consistency for the past few months. David Ortiz seems to be gathering himself down the stretch, with his post-All-Star game splits showing improving OPS. And Jed Lowrie has shown himself to be a worthy replacement both offensively and ...

Where is the soul of Red Sox Nation? Recent events encourage examination and questions about where we stand? Above all, the Red Sox are a business, a very successful business, on the field and at the box office. A pair of championships in four years after a lifetime of almost mythical disappointments testifies to the success of baseball operations. Revenues and 'value' among ticket prices, seating capacity expansion, NESN, and other revenue generating operations (merchandising). MLB generated 6.08 billion dollars of revenue in 2007, with the Red Sox reporting 234 million dollars in gross revenue in 2006. The Red Sox approach an All-Time record for consecutive sellouts, which any economist would tell you means that ticket prices aren't maximizing revenue. The team has increased seating capacity within the tiny footprint at Fenway, and worked to improve the venue as a site for concerts, fund-raising, and private events. Baseball operations has strengthened productivity (work ...

What can you say about last night's game? Ugly? Horrible? Spectacular? The greatest deficit I remember the Sox overcoming was an 8-0 game in 1967, which I believe Jerry Adair capped off with a game winning homer. I definitely could be wrong about that, since it happened over 40 years ago. The Red Sox have found new ways to frustrate us, even in the wake of a pair of World Championships. You can never have too much pitching. But the staff falls apart with season long injuries to Curt Schilling, mostly hurt Bartolo Colon, and what seems like a Clay Buchholz badly in need of a sports psychologist. The Byrd Man of Cleveland can bring even a semblance of sanity to the back end of the rotation (an ERA under 5), that would constitute an improvement. And then there's the bullpen, which like the little girl with the curl, has been very bad when bad. Again, as I've repeated over and over and over, maybe better pitching means more than better players. The centerfield camera (Direct Vi...

Pitching seemed like the Red Sox strong point. And maybe it still is. But with Tim Wakefield headed to the DL and Clay Buchholz in FUBAR mode, the Sox have to retool. What are the options? The top of the rotation with Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Lester isn't the problem. Where they go from there, anybody knows. Bartolo Colon isn't ready, and the best free agent available could be Freddy Garcia, who has a dozen teams looking at him. Pawtucket has David Pauley (pitched Saturday), Devern Hansack (pitched the 7th), Charlie Zink (the knuckleballer, pitched the 8th) and Michael Bowden (last pitched August 5th), who has already thrown 126 innings this year. The question is whether the Sox will reassess the innings count with their prize prospect. Colon pitched three innings today. Justin Masterson would need to be 'stretched out' if he were going back to the rotation, and we've seen how that worked out for Joba (the Hun) Chamberlain. Here's guessing that they turn to Hansa...

"Momentum lasts as long as the next day's starting pitcher." And so it was tonight as Daisuke Matsuzaka stopped the White Sox on one run through eight innings. Of course, it's not only pitching that counts but timely hitting as well. David Ortiz led the fourteen hit parade with three hits and a three run double, and another key element was Jacoby Ellsbury with his seventh homer and three hits. Ellsbury's protracted slump seemed to coincide with what was the illusion of offensive stagnation. But Ellsbury has now raised his average above .270 and has shown more pop with a pair of homers this week. Perhaps he's making adjustments, or pitchers aren't executing against his perceived weakness. After last season's mediocrity, nobody knew what to expect from Matsuzaka, but he leads the team in wins (13-2) and E.R.A. (2.90) and has produced surprising consistency while going deeper in games lately. In his last six starts, he's averaged 6 2/3rd innings. The ...

Tonight's game has filled the inquisitive mind with trivial thoughts and pictures. Jason Bay had a double off the centerfielder's glove that rolled about SIX FEET along the TOP of the KC wall before leftfielder Ross Gload kept it in the park. Jacoby Ellsbury had TWO hits! And two stolen bases. As they say, you can't steal first base. Mike Lowell just pains the consciousness limping around the bases. Last night the Sox just couldn't make anything happen against Gil Meche after the first. Tonight the Sox got into the Royals bullpen and exacted a little payback. Josh Beckett looks a little tired here in the seventh, with his front shoulder flying open, leaving his pitching arm trailing, and causing stuff to go up and away from lefthanders. Voila! Francona sees it, too, and Beckett is gone. Joba Chamberlain has shoulder pain and needs an MRI and a visit to Dr. James Andrews in Alabama. I wrote to Andrews years ago and got a very comprehensive personal letter back. I was imp...

Let's hope so. Coming into tonight, Jon Lester has 48 career starts , with a remarkable 20-5 career record.

"This is your team."

Last night the Red Sox took a step in the right direction, playing good baseball. Pitch the ball, field the ball, hit the ball. Not all of their efforts created runs, but the Sox executed better than they had in awhile. Jed Lowrie had a sacrifice fly and a sacrifice bunt. Jonathan Papelbon stranded a runner in scoring position in a critical situation. The oft-maligned bullpen held the A's down for the most part, including key efforts from Delcarmen in the seventh, Papelbon in the 9th and 10th, and Lopez and Timlin in the final two. We shouldn't rush to declare Jason Bay an All-Star based on one night, but at least everyone had their oars in the water. The Sox have enough good pieces to go deep in the playoffs, although as currently constituted, the Angels have to be the AL favorite. Terry Francona's genius has always been the focus on winning today. Let's hope he can keep everyone left behind on board.

On Wall Street, the saying goes, "never confuse brains with a bull market." Baseball doesn't have an equivalent, although maybe Charles Barkley approximated it, "I am not a role model." Baseball players get paid to perform on the field, not to sign autographs, appease sports writers, or give good interviews. Realistically, "you catch more flies with honey than vinegar", so accommodating the media and fans does provide linkage between pay and performance . But many talented players haven't enjoyed much of a relationship with their environment, from Ty Cobb to Steve Carlton, to Barry Bonds. "Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan." Maybe had the Sox been playing well, the whole tirade could have been dismissed, but the volatile mixture of underachievement and constant complaints produced the expected result, CHANGE. "No progress occurs without change, but not all change is progress." - John Wooden Apply the lesson...

Okay, it's time to release the hounds, a barrage of cliche's worthy of grade B movies. The Bay Watch has begun, with Bay's press conference today. Bay is certain to get the biggest ovation of his career. Terry Francona looked like the weight of the world had come off his shoulders. Francona is rumored to have lost fifteen pounds during the Dead Manny Walking crisis. The Sox finally extricated the sole survivor of the Isle of Manny by doing everything (as Jason Varitek said) "to get him out of town." Nobody should feel that Jason Bay will produce at the level of a Hall of Famer. But the Sox have presumably solved their left field problems through 2009 and done so with an opportunity to put twelve million dollars together to address other weaknesses. Bay will surely misplay some balls off the wall, strikeout in key situations, and leave runners on base. He will fail at times and at others he will succeed spectacularly. That is baseball. How good is Jason Bay? Som...