Red Sox Reality Check

All's quiet on the Red Sox front, excepting Roger Clemens' denials. And here's a newly discovered rodent ...

Andy Pettitte acknowledged using HGH in 2002 today. His confession makes former Sox' star Roger Clemens denials seem more hollow than ever. Pettitte took one for the team? Did Clemens take one for Roger Clemens? How does the song go? "Don't go away mad, just go away."

The Mitchell report changes nothing. Years ago someone surveyed Olympic athletes as to whether they would take a substance that guaranteed them a gold medal and had a fifty percent chance of killing them. Most said, "of course." Athletes at one level doing anything to win. "If you're not cheating, you're not trying," goes the refrain. Under the legal stewardship of Donald Fehr and Gene Orza, with billions of dollars at stake, could you expect something different? So the report 'confirms' many of the usual suspects and even some of the upper pantheon of baseball greatness, like Roger Clemens, come out tarnished. Do we have a positive drug test? No. But what is the motivation for clubhouse figures to lie, especially when they might have to go into court some day? They hate everyone, they're jealous of multimillionaire athletes raking in the dough? Supposedly Scott Boras commented that the report means nothing because it wasn't collectively barg...

Eric Gagne agrees to a 10 million dollar contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. Let me write that down again, "Eric Gagne agrees to a 10 million dollar contract with the Brewers." For gawd's sake Eric, rush up there, grab the first pen that writes, and sign. Get your physical, drug test, Rorschach test, Wonderlic test, or whatever. Gagne, once one of the most feared relievers in MLB, came to the Red Sox from the Rangers, and was nothing short of abysmal. In 18 2/3 innings he allowed 26 hits, 9 walks, and an ERA of 6.75. He had no command, but pretty good velocity. He was the ants at the Red Sox 2007 picnic. Why so much money? That's easy to explain. The falling value of the US dollar (Thanks, Dr. Bernanke) The high price of mediocrity Milwaukee executives losing their minds Mr. Gagne has incriminating photos of Brewer management? To his credit, Gagne made no excuses, never publicly complained, and was pretty much a stand up guy through his ordeal into the lowest level ...

Today I had a rather interesting discussion concerning the relative merits of Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. My colleague, whom I'll call Bruce the Yankee fan, insisted that he never judges players by April or September events, and that in his opinion, Melky Cabrera, with his track record was a superior player to Jacoby Ellsbury. Not always right, but never in doubt, I argued that Ellsbury's performance, sample size admittedly small, came during a pennant race and World Series. Also in a mere 33 games, Ellsbury had 6 win shares while the redoubtable Melk-Man has had two fairly full seasons with 13 apiece. Obviously, we're both biased, although I see Ellsbury as a .300 plus hitter, .375 OBP guy, with 15 homer potential and forty steal potential, plus a solid glove in center. I see Melky as the guy who played Trot Nixon's line drive into an inside the park home run. Obviously, the pinstripes devalue him in my eyes and raise him to the apotheosis of centerfielderhood a...

Bob WatsoN(Y) putting in the Francona Rule just shows how inane that MLB upper management continues to be. MLB should concern itself with more relevant issues that affect the game, including: Performance enhancing drugs (e.g. HGH) Competitive balance (apparently no concern in an era of prosperity for the industry overall) The uniform issue is particularly galling when you consider 'uniform' largely irrelevant from the days of Jose Cardenal (?) and tailored pants, Manny Ramirez wearing the pajama pants look, and the helmets of Trot Nixon and Manny, and scraggly cap look of Nixon, Timlin, and others. Now I'm not saying that MLB should be addressing the NFL type chinstrap and towel width concerns, rather exactly the opposite. A little individuality never hurt a game filled with narcissistic millionaires. Does whether Francona or anyone else in the league (coaches and players) wearing a pullover, game jersey, or official jacket affect the game in ANY way? Obviously, it doesn...

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Jacoby Ellsbury is now in the Santana trade offer. Obviously, we cannot know whether this is credible or not. I'd argue that Ellsbury MIGHT be a perennial all-star and everyday player, who has more value than a pitcher even of Santana's stature. Ellsbury's six win shares in just 33 games whetted the appetite of Sox fans, as well as the momentum shift that he provided in the post season after replacing Coco Crisp. I've already shown what the economic cost is likely to be for the Yankees should they sign Santana. They've already overspent this winter (Posada 15M/yr, A-Rod ~30M/yr, Rivera 15M/yr) and likely will have another 16M for Pettitte as well as the Jeter 17M, Abreu 16M, Damon 13M, and so on. In other words, they're spending like drunken sailors in the global Arms Race with the Red Sox. Not even counting a possible Santana acquisition that alone was 122 Million not counting the money they squandered on Roger Clemens. I...

Click spreadsheet entry to ENLARGE Let's presume, for the sake of argument, that the Yankees have the right mix of players and dollars to acquire Johan Santana. What's the economic impact, the win impact, and the relative differential over a six year period? I'm no economist, but I'll try. Every economist has to make projections, and these have plenty of room for error, on both sides. They don't account for injury, for the increased cost to insure contracts (let's say the Yankees might have to pay an additional twenty percent to insure the contract...I have no idea if this is right), and projecting performance is tough. As Yogi might say, "making predictions is hard, especially about the future." Bob Gibson averaged 20 wins a season, in four man rotations, from age 29-34. Roger Clemens averaged 13 wins a season from age 29-34. Pedro Martinez averaged 13.5 wins a season from age 29-34. Greg Maddux averaged 17 wins a season from age 29-34. Curt Schilling...

I've been all over the park on Julio Lugo offensively, from "he's way overrated", to "I was wrong", and finally "I was wrong about being wrong". In the end, whether it was sunspots, Tarot, or astrology, Lugo got the last laugh. But what about the defensive measure of the shortstop and other musings? I know this crowd moved far past range factor and zone ratings to evaluate shortstops, but let's look at a couple of integrated models. First, David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range . You've gotta love the title, because it sounds like you need a P.H.D. to understand it, but second it breaks down performance to a couple of decimal points, which reminds me of how we insanely pay homage to statistics beyond validity. But I digress. At the top of Pinto's points come the Colorado Rockies and Troy Tulowitzki. Our sample size of Tulowitzki was small, because we'd have to rate him the most overrated player since Mike Greenwell, although...

If you must have Santana , here he is. The most valued commodity in baseball is low-salaried talent under your control, an approach that allows you to overspend for other areas of weakness. The Red Sox, the most successful of the Moneyball teams, clearly understand this. Spending money to make a splash guarantees nothing, and you may just lock yourself into both bad contracts and bad chemistry. Among the Red Sox high value, low cost contracts include: Kevin Youkilis Jonathan Papelbon Dustin Pedroia Jacoby Ellsbury Jon Lester Clay Buchholz Having these 'commodities', baseball's 'raw materials' as it were, is akin to having oil or gold in the ground, proven reserves, which almost certainly will rise in value. Established players carry higher price tags for past production, and expected production at similar levels to the past. For example, with Mike Lowell , is he more likely to hit .320 with 25 homers and 120 RBI, or hit .290 with 20 homers and 90 RBI? I'd argue...

While the Red Sox bask in offseason glory, what burning topics should we discuss? David Eckstein, free agent, seeks a contract in the Julio Lugo (four years, thirty-six million dollars) range. Eckstein was Dustin Pedroia before Dustin Pedroia. He's small, not especially fast, but has been a productive player. From a Win Shares perpective, it is what it is. Eckstein's best OPS in the past four years was .758, and he averaged less than four home runs and forty RBI for the past four seasons. His big year had 8 homers, 61 RBI, and 90 runs scored. In 2005, his outlier year, he had 28 Win Shares, simply astonishing. The other three years, you're looking at 9, 12, and 11. Admittedly, he's a feisty 'overachiever', especially if you have a "Boras Book" focusing entirely on 2005. But anybody paying him nine million a year deserves the title, "former GM". Carlos Silva is supposed to be the hot property starter this offseason? Yes, you may remember him o...

I don't have a problem with baseball players, barkeeps, or barristers taking the biggest dollar. Maybe Mom would slap me upside the head for taking less.We do have core values, however, of which honor remains one. Players, managers, and ownership have limited loyalty to each other, so our loyalty to branding (some say laundry) may be misplaced.If the Lowells (see Greenwells, Clemens, Pedros of bygone days) want to take the biggest buck, just do it. Do we need the reiteration of unrequited love for the Hub and its fans? Maybe Dustin Pedroia should just say, "I deserved the award, I busted my hump and gave up my body, and nobody did it better." At least that's honest. We like Mike. If he 'needs' the recognition and the considerable difference in money available from FA, then that's his right. But it would be refreshing to hear, "I simply took the most money." That's acceptable, but we'll probable not hear it...

Mike Lowell stands perched on the opportunity of a baseball lifetime, free agency after earning the MVP in the World Series. More power to him, I guess. I believe in the free market, and if I could do what Mike Lowell can do, then I'd have the right to choose how much money I'd make and who would pay me. Will he be happier in Philadelphia with fourteen million a year and four years? If he is, then that's his right, earned, by Curt Flood, Catfish Hunter, and Andy Messersmith. Yes, I got to see those dinosaurs play, Hunter dishing out those comfortable 0 for 4s when baseball games lasted two and a half hours on a long day. As for A-Rod, Mike Lupica has a really compelling article about A-Rod's zero for twenty-seven in the postseason in the past few seasons with men on base. Signing A-Rod turns your team into a circus after your GM has become the puppet in Scott Boras' puppet show. Now I'm not saying Boras isn't the best at what he does. Look what he did for B...

Identifying heroes comes easily to sports fans. We have Josh Beckett, an unblemished 4-0 in the playoffs, Curt Schilling, the venerable warrior, pundit, and blogger. Who doesn't like Big Papi the lethal teddy bear DH and sometimes first baseman, or Jacoby Ellsbury, our latest answer to Ricochet Rabbit trivia? You have ownership which has revitalized the team and the ballpark, bringing revenues to challenge the Yankees, introducing Nascar to New Englanders, and raising water prices to something only the MWRA can dream about. We have local guy Theo Epstein, freed from the gorilla suit, now a 600 pound gorilla as Sox GM. And Terry Francona, who never has to buy a drink again, and can freely pass throughout the six-state region without echoes of "you suck, Francona", ever. But buried somewhere in the bunker at Fenway lives a tall stat geek. Management embraced the lanky Kansas loner, who pores through baseball statistics looking for nuggets, advantages that can give the Sox t...

In addition to having won a pair of World Championships in four seasons, the Red Sox have created payroll flexibility through development. Going into next season the Sox presumably can pony up a payroll of 150,000 dollars Here's the 2007 Salary picture . Let's just use some approximations to guesstimate 2008. C - Varitek 11,000,000 C2 TBA 2,000,000 1B Youkilis 1,000,000 (presumes big raise, no long-term deal yet) DH Ortiz 13,000,000 2B Pedroia 450,000 SS Lugo 8,250,000 3B Lowell 14,000,000 (a very big assumption, may not be true) LF Ramirez 18,000,000 CF Ellsbury 400,000 RF Drew 14,400,000 Ut Cora 2,000,000 UO Kielty 2,000,000 UO Moss 400,000 13 Positions 86,900,000 Pitching Beckett 10000000 Schilling 11000000 Wakefield 4000000 Matsuzaka 7000000 Buchholz 400000 Lester 400000 Tavarez 3800000 Papelbon 1000000 (presumes raise, no long-term deal) Snyder 600000 Okajima 122...

The Sox have exercised the options on Tim Wakefield and Yoyo Julian Tavarez. At four million dollars and less for Tavarez, this makes a lot of sense, especially with the free agency for Curt Schilling. Will the Sox pony up the big dollars for Schilling and Mike Lowell? I'd guess that lowell has a better chance of returning than Schilling, but the latter gets a debt of gratitude for helping orchestrate a pair of championships. Terry Francona can't get an MRI? Must be the horseshoe somewhere in his anatomy. Seriously, the Sox skipper kept the team going in one direction, deals with a myriad of complex personalities and kept the issues in house. Can't imagine that Coco Crisp was wild about being replaced by Jacoby Ellsbury in the ALCS and Series, but he didn't publicly complain. The "starting bid" on A-Rod comes in at 350 million? Obviously, the American Peso has taken a hit under the weight of the Federal Reserve but are you kidding? That's why they call th...

Numbers don't tell everything...but Scott Boras has made his clients (and himself) a fortune by creating statbooks that celebrate their excellence. So let's distill some post-season numbers, past and present. AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 147 21 41 9 0 7 17 17 38 .279 .361 .483 .844 A. RODRIGUEZ 495 85 153 22 3 17 49 51 96 .309 .377 .469 .846 JETER 322 41 76 19 0 9 31 57 77 .236 .352 .379 .731 POSADA 97 16 27 8 0 4 20 11 12 .278 .348 .485 .833 LOWELL 353 55 95 14 0 24 64 59 81 .269 .376 .513 .889 RAMIREZ 189 35 60 16 1 11 42 32 47 .317 .418 .587 1.005 ORTIZ 65 15 24 3 0 4 11 9 3 .369 .447 .600 1.047 YASTRZEMSKI 113 11 27 7 1 4 19 15 20 .239 .333 .425 .758 DWIGHT EVANS 105 16 33 7 1 7 23 11 16 .314 .378 .600 .978 GARCIAPARRA 60 12 17 6 0 2 10 6 7 .283 .348 .483 .821 PEDROIA 51 16 19 4 1 4 10 9 9 .373 .459 .725 1.183 YOUKILIS ...

Most Sox fans are in more of a state of exhaustion than exhilaration, only because of the lateness of the hour. And whining about much of anything smacks of just plain negativity. We CAN enjoy the moment. Here are a few thoughts, I hope mostly positive. Can Terry Francona get enough credit for what he has done? Will people get off of Theo's back? The most exciting aspect for those of us old enough to remember is player development...the exciting young players, from Ellsbury, to Youkilis and Pedroia I'm happy for Lugo, who looked like he needed suicide watch earlier in the year, and turns out celebrating hitting over .300 in the Series, and playing pretty good defense overall A weight came off J.D. Drew's shoulders Papelbon...nerves of steel, or just none at all Great moment for Jon Lester Will Lowell 'settle' for something like three and 36? Okajima needs the rest How excited is Japan? Would adding another Japanese pitcher help the whole comfort thing? Kudos to Vari...

For years the Red Sox organization, players and coaching staff, and fans played the role of the guy at the beach who gets sand kicked in his face. He doesn't get the girl, gets seagull droppings deposited on him, a sunburn, and every imaginable form of insult that Mother Nature and human nature can deliver. That was then, this is now. I'm not expecting a piano to fall out of the sky and hit me. I'm not concerned about sunspot activity, bad weather, black cats, or triskaidekaphobia. Okay, so I haven't abandoned some pet superstitions, but I have a limit, you know? From baseball to 'taco stand and deliver" the Red Sox have simply gotten it done, so far. No superhero has emerged to carry the locals back to baseball's promised land, rather an assortment of character guys, from Jason Varitek, the bruised warrior, to foreign imports Lowell, Ortiz, Matsuzaka, Lugo, and Okajima, to the "Blew Bayou" guy in Jonathan Papelbon, and the rookies. We haven't...

Boston fans awake to a World Series berth, a 7-0 professional football team, the number two ranked team in the BCS (Boston College) and at least hope with the Celtics with the second generation of the Green Trio. Pinch me? Sports provide a vicarious means for ordinary Joes to feel important, as though we have become part of something bigger. Our issues like job security, paying the mortgage, filling the tank with three dollar gas become tolerable. Our heroes performance lends gentle amnesia to our pained consciousness. I couldn't have been more wrong about Dustin Pedroia, the raging mite with the oversized swing. Manager Terry Francona agreed that it was the microcosm of the regular season, with adjustments creating success. "And a child shall lead them." Rookies Pedroia and Ellsbury came up big, and MLB rookies but Japanese League vets Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima carried their weight as well. The much-maligned Theo Epstein got a chance to get champagne soaked, a...

Just enjoy the music... Rookie magic at work...

Props to Curt Schilling for his Old Man River performance in picking up another post-season win. And to J.D. Drew, an unexpected hero with a grand slam and five RBI. With Daisuke (DICE-K) Matsuzaka pitching Game 7 after the Sox win tonight, have the Sox received an omen with a 12-2 win? The only dice combination that give a unique 12-2 score are a pair of sixes and a pair of ones. So there you have it.

It's not even noon yet, and football is in the air, but New Englanders today have locked in on the Sawx. As I drove up Route 1 North today, an electronic sign in front of a car dealer said it all, " START ELLSBURY ". Shortly thereafter, pulling out of the Barnes & Nobles parking lot, the car in front of me had the license plate " SOX GAL ". It's almost enough for me to start violating my superstition, no Sox garb to be worn on game day, no hats, jackets, T-shirts, or whatever. But not enough. Much of the Nation flipped out when Manny Ramirez suggested that life could go on if the Sox lost. The old saying goes "baseball isn't a matter of life or death, it's more important than that." Although I passed by Home Depot today, I didn't load up on tar and feathers to prepare to vilify Terry Francona or Theo Epstein. As unrealistic as I can be, baseball remains a game played by people, who struggle with stress, biorhythms and cyclicality, i...

Thoughts on a Friday morning as the Sox stave off an elimi-nation (hat tip to Boston Dirt Dogs) game. If you have a typewriter without A, E, and I, you can't write much. That would be Big Papi, Manny, and Mike Lowell. If you don't have Q, X, and Z (Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and JD Drew) then you still can write something. But you can also use some different letters. My, but doesn't Terry Francona have the horseshoe in the right place. Hanley Ramirez is a great player. But you can't get top of the rotation pitching for nothing. Josh Beckett again simply magnificent. Six hits, eleven strikeouts. Kevin Youkilis has certainly stepped up in the post-season. Where's Jeff Maier when you need him, Manny? A great day for Yankee fans, as the team they love to hate, lives to be hated longer. Do you think Kenny Lofton really wants a piece of Josh Beckett? That's an early TKO. Is Chief Knock-A-Homa still around?

Probably the most frustrating part of watching major league hitters against Paul Byrd is the feeling that says, "you can't hit THAT?" Byrd, the right-handed Jamie Moyer, throws rotten grapefruit up to the plate. Worse yet is the double pump delivery that he occasionally uses. Intellectually, I wanted Terry Francona to shake up the lineup, because a number of players aren't doing anything, not for lack of effort, just baseball. Inserting Ellsbury and Cora for Drew and Lugo might have been harsh on management ego, but you've also got Mirabelli's diminished offense in the lineup with Wakefield pitching. They've just shown some fairly unorthodox grips from Byrd, but what would surprise you now? A keen sense of the obvious says this is what Sox fans feared most, offensive doldrums in the postseason. Nobody would confuse Westbrook and Byrd with top of the rotation pitching, but timing counts. Even bottom of the rotation pitchers have quality starts, occasionally...

As I've mentioned before, one aspect of baseball that astonishes me is watching low probability events happen on an everyday basis. For example, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz reached base ten consecutive appearance last night. If you view each at bat as a random event (may or may not be), and have an expectation of reaching base at 40 percent (.04), then you're looking at about a one in 10,000 chance of two players getting on ten consecutive times. You'd have to watch about sixty consecutive seasons of Red Sox games to see that. Last night's announcers mentioned that Javier Lopez has a higher success rate against right-handed batters than left-handed ones. I wouldn't have guessed that...of course, Casey Blake then promptly deposited his second two-bagger into the left field corner. I saw some fans who showed up wearing windbreakers. Maybe they had neoprene wet suits underneath, but it looked pretty cold out there last night. Does Jason Varitek get enough credit for ...

Unlike the NFL, Major League Baseball seems to have some informality associated with it. Sure, they practically strip searched Terry Francona to see if he were wearing a uniform jersey, but what can you expect from a sport whose motto is, "so great that even idiotic management can't ruin it." Baseball players have a thousand different kinds of shoes, wear socks of an infinite number of lengths, and some guys like Manny Ramirez wear their unis like pajamas. Others want the tailored look, as though chasing Baseball Annies was their primary job. Not to mention differing gloves, wristbands, body armor, and so on. Some players just look 'professional' like Mike Lowell every day, and others have caps (Timlin/Nixon) that look as though they've been trampled daily in the Ponderosa. But that omits my own personal issues. As a loyal Red Sox fan, can you picture yourself wearing a Yankee cap or a Yankee jacket? Nausea? How about projectile vomiting? Yes, I do have a pict...

How does Red Sox Nation feel about the demise of the Bombers and the arrival of the Tribe? Maybe if the Nation understood the health issues of The Boss, they would have at least a modicum of empathy. Surely with a new stadium in the works, and loads of Yankee Bucks, New York isn't headed back to the early 70s. As for the present, I rejoice in playing Cleveland, because of so many issues. I'm worn out by the four and a half hour marathons that every Sox-Yankee games has become. How many times can we hear 'pitch count', 'full count', 'working the count', and 'quality at bat' during a game? I can go out and get gas and a coffee in the time a Kevin Youkilis at bat takes. I don't have to listen to Yankee fans complain about insects. I won't have to listen to Yankee fans complain about umpires. We can focus on our young guys like Pedroia and Papelbon. We can talk about some quality opposition pitching, Sabathia and Carmona. We can reminisce abo...

Let's See How Far We've Come ... The Red Sox eliminated the Angels (gawd, please change the LAA designation) as the Old Lion showed himself to be anything but toothless, with Curt Schilling proving his resilience once again. Schilling ran his post-season record to 9-2, lowering his post season ERA to under two, propelling the Sox to the the ALCS and further enhancing his chance of enshrinement at Cooperstown. Great players elevate their game in the big moments, and the Sox witnessed back-to-back homers by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and tacked on a seven run eighth inning to send the Angels heavenward. So the Red Sox move to the ALCS for the third time in the past five seasons. They boast the top AL pitching staff, the second ranked defense, and one of the most productive offenses in the American League. They seem to genuinely like each other, and have some serious baseball junkies on the team, from Captain Jason Varitek, to Alex Cora, and Dustin Pedroia. What was the best ...

Josh Beckett pitched one of the most dominating performances I have ever seen in Fenway Park with a 4-0, four-hit, complete game shutout in Game One of the ALDS. Beckett fanned eight and walked none, using 108 pitches to dispatch the Angels. He gave a clinic for other Red Sox pitchers and fans. How did he do it? First pitch strikes Overpowering heat (fastball regularly touching 96-98) with outstanding fastball command Use of secondary pitches to complement the fastball Beckett had tremendous repetition of his tight delivery, with outstanding leg drive, and his ball had tremendous movement, running down and in to right-handers and he seemed to use a cut fastball at times to the lefthanders. The single most dominating game I've seen this year at Fenway was Buchholz's no-hitter, but Beckett reminded us of Jim Palmer with his ability to use both sides of the plate. We can only hope that Daisuke Matsuzaka was taking notes.

Why does almost every ballplayer have to have some unique brand of facial hair? After awhile, I wonder whether the clean shaven look might actually express more individuality. For example, as a younger player, struggling to make a major league roster, Youkilis is fairly clean shaven As an established player, somehow it looks as though Youkilis' face has acquired some furry mammal. Almost every major leaguer wears batting gloves...but not everyone. I guess the argument must be for more comfort in cold weather, better grip in warm humid weather, and more endorsement opportunities in all weather. Coco Crisp doesn't usually wear batting gloves though, although he's looking a lot like Wally Pipp these days. Today the radio conversation centered about the role for Mike Lowell next year...In the newspaper, it sounded like John Henry has a warm, fuzzy spot in his heart for Lowell. Does the same pertain for his wallet? Would you really want A-Rod here? Or wouldn't A-Rod be bett...

We share finite space and time in an infinite universe. And in that space, we struggle together on a hostile planet to share moments of joy and sadness, achievement and loss, hope and despair. Amidst that vastness, our lives become united in our shared experience called Red Sox Nation. Red Sox Nation has never represented membership cards, Sox Appeal, or even the media frenzy surrounding tonight's celebration of an American League East champion ship. People drive a little more courteously, smile more easily, and food even tastes better when our boys win. We suffer the defeats less well, although the World Series of 2004 vanquished memories of Loserville. The 'panic button' never came out this year, and as close as the competition came, I always had the same assurance for coworkers and patients, "the Yankee fans experience what we formerly owned", the anticipation of something that would not happen, the corruption of broken dreams. Mariano Rivera, Sox nemesis incar...

I haven't written as much lately, not out of criticism but from other obligations. I haven't put up the 'Panic Button' JPEG all season (as far as I can remember), because there hasn't been a reason to panic. In 2004 the Red Sox had a flawed team and the GM corrected the problem with defensive acquisitions in Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientiewicz. This year, the team has shown consistency concerning inconsistency, as they can be world-beaters or invisible. Jacoby Ellsbury, Julio Lugo, and Coco Crisp have given the team some offensive dimension they have never had (at least in my 45 years of watching), real speed. When any of the three get on, you just sense that they are running. And Remy correctly points out (between cashing in scorecard money) that Ellsbury steals not only with speed, but technique. The franchise wants to manage expectations on Ellsbury, but you have to see what is out there, too. Yes, he does have some holes in his swing, but we hope that he can cu...

The Red Sox clearly admire the Patriots, especially their intelligence gathering, surveillance, and scouting defense operations. The Sox could have charged into the playoffs, guns blazing, but have taken a sub rosa approach, stealthily creeping toward Nirvana. Power hitter Manny Ramirez? Nowhere to be found. Manny could have a full beard or have shaved his head like the Dali Lama for all we know. Manny may have bought the entire '24' series on tape, promising not to return until he's seen every episode. Starting Centerfielder and Gold Glove candidate Coco Crisp, has the Hellenic Flu, after crashing into the turf so much this season. The Real J.D. Drew? Drew has played possum the whole season, only recently coming out of his self-imposed hitlessness cocoon in preparation for the second season. No more Nancy Drew to kick around. Julio Lugo? While we speculated that Julio had compromising photos of management to earn a big contract, he's had his moments the second half. W...

The Red Sox have shown admirable resilience...against the weak sisters of the American League. But you do have to beat up on the bad teams to get to the playoffs. As Mickey Mantle told Roger Maris during his 'real' home run chase, "hit 'em with your wallet'...and the Sox and Yankees do. Worries? Pitching consistency from the starting rotation after Josh Beckett. Curt Schilling has morphed into Rick Reuschel, as his fastball has moved into the 80s from the 90s. It's a lot harder to get people out with guile and experience than with the former and a 93 mph heater. Does Clay Buchholz have top of the rotation stuff? I made the Jim Palmer analogy here long before it became fashionable. Big Papi is now second in the AL in OPS at 1.033...and Kevin Youkilis seems to have a little life back in his bat, with 80 RBIs...and Ortiz has his 30+ homers and 100+ RBI. What about Jacoby Ellsbury, with 2 homers in the minors and 3 Navahomers for our Navahomeboy at Fenway. Somewher...

Walk off homers grab the headlines. I still remember feeling awful about Johnny Callison homering off the AL in 1964 during the All-Star game. Who would've thought it? What of last ups? Keith Foulke stabs an Edgar Renteria groundout and the Sox end eighty-six years of frustration in 2004. That will probably always be the number one finale for the current generation of Sox fans. Clay Buchholz's strikeout of Nick Markakis probably won't achieve the same legendary status, however exciting it was. In 1978, the great Yaz popped out to Graig Nettles to end the playoffs and the remarkable season that was. Rich Rollins popped out to Rico Petrocelli to send the Sox into waiting to determine the season's fate. In 1962 the late Earl Wilson pitched a no-hitter. I have this recurrent memory that Frank Malzone made a great catch on a foul pop to end the game. I don't know if I'm right. Was that the right game? Was it the last out? Hey, either way, I was only seven years old. ...

A star is born. The lanky Red Sox righthander, Clay Buchholz, called up for a spot start, fired a no-hitter tonight to baffle the Baltimore Orioles 10-0. Buchholz fanned nine, walked three, and hit a batter. Dustin Pedroia saved the no-no with a miraculous diving backhander to rob Miguel Tejada earlier on a groundball up the middle. As I've written before, he reminds me of a young Jim Palmer. Let's hope so.

As we turn the page on our baseball calendars, we find the Red Sox with a five game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East. And who among us would not have dreamt about this situation coming down the stretch? Emerson reminds us that "a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Baseball's odyssey provides with a framework where we measure consistency over 162 games, not over a month, a road trip, or a series. We're talking about the intersection of run prevention and run scoring over baseball's marathon, not about winning a game in tennis parlance. What Red Sox fans (and Theo Epstein) must ask is does the team have what it takes to win in October? We lament last week's action as we always do when comparing baseball's Athens and Sparta. After the Red Sox annihilated a flogged and downtrodden Pale Hose, reminiscent of the Boston Massacre of 1978, the Red Sox came up short in the Bronx, leaving with their collective tails betwe...

Does the Law of Averages mean anything after the Sox scored in double digits four consecutive games and the Bombers got whitewashed 16-0 by the Tigers last night? Let's hope not. Daisuke Matsuzaka, victim of lack of run support recently, faces Red Sox nemesis Andy Pettitte. Among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched, Matsuzaka (13-10) is 22nd in run support at 5.19 runs/game. The leaders are Verlander, Wang, Beckett, and Pettitte, all with at least 6 3/4 runs per game, with Verlander at a whopping 7.6. On-base slugging percentage .831 Dustin Pedroia. At .821, Derek Jeter. Three year splits for Jorge Posada against the Red Sox? .303/.410/.576/.986. That would qualify him as a Sox killer in my book. Jon Lester pitched well for the Sea Dogs, allowing one run in six innings. If only he could cut down on the bases on balls. With the off-season acquisition of Julio Lugo, everyone worried about the Red Sox defense. The Sox check in at third in fielding percentage in the AL, with qua...

The old saying, "you're never as good as you look when you win, and never as bad when you lose," comes to mind after the first three games of the White Sox series have gone 35-6, Boston. The inconsistent Sox offense pounds out double digit runs three games running, and shows a very good argument why Mark Buehrle didn't belong on their radar screen. The White Sox have injuries and their pitching hasn't performed up to expectations, which is why they are a last place team. As for the Sox, what are they, a World Series favorite, a top five team, or an enigma unfolding before us? First, despite the sense concerning offensive vulnerability, they have three guys in the top 10 hitting (Pedroia, Lowell, and Ortiz), three guys with 85 or more RBI (Lowell, Manny, Ortiz), two of the top ten in OPS (Ortiz, Lowell), three of the top 20 and five of the top twenty-seven in Runs Created (Pedroia, the revelation at 27). As of the 23rd, the Sox have eight players with at least thir...

Maybe the time has arrived to start contemplating the Tenth Player Award. I'd call it the 'Outperformed Expectations' award. You could probably divided the team into exceeded, met, and underperformed expectations. That doesn't mean that a player in a 'lower' category didn't produce more than one in a higher category. It's the expectations game. EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS Hideki Okajima Dustin Pedroia Tim Wakefield Mike Lowell Manny Delcarmen MET EXPECTATIONS Jason Varitek Doug Mirabelli Josh Beckett Jonathan Papelbon Jon Lester Daisuke Matsuzaka Kyle Snyder Mike Timlin Julian Tavarez Eric Hinske Alex Cora Kevin Youkilis (first half exceeded, second half underperformed) Coco Crisp UNDERACHIEVED EXPECTATIONS Brendan Donnelly Curt Schilling Eric Gagne Julio Lugo (has met expectations recently) J.D. Drew Manny Ramirez (held to a high standard) David Ortiz (held to a high standard) If you project Win Shares of 30 as MVP type seasons and 20 as All-Star seasons, wh...

So many times through Red Sox history, critical points went against the locals. HBO is playing 'Reversing the Curse' with the highlights and the lowlights of the Red Sox experience. 1967 and 1975, the Red Sox were heavy underdogs and lost to the better team. 1978 and the monumental collapse (but incredible rally to get to the playoff), and 1986...what were you doing during Game 6 of 1986? I was in the Intensive Care Unit of Bethesda Naval Hospital, outside of ICU Bay 3, watching it go down. "The most stunning comeback in baseball history..." how we remember those words from 2004. Eighty-six years of unrequited love and cataclysmic frustration, evaporated in eight games of magic. "It was Edgar Renteria who made the last out of the World Series. He was wearing number 3, the same number as the Babe." How do the Red Sox affect your life? What are you wearing right now? I've got my Boston Dirt Dogs t-shirt on. On any given practice for the young Melrose girls...

2004 changed everything, taking away the edge, the aura of inevitability. Is it lack of concern about being overtaken by the New Yorkers, confidence in the Red Sox pitching staff, or just fatigue induced by contemporary sports scandals? I am sorry to see Wily Mo Pena go, as somehow, I view him to be a future productive player. Who knows, maybe he'll come this way again. After the break, his OPS is .749, not very good . My pitching obituary for Mike Timlin obviously came prematurely. Clay Buchholz reminds me of another tall, right-handed pitcher who threw over the top. Of course, this boyhood idol has just a little bit longer track record . Last year Kevin Youkilis seemed to wear down from the long season and a lot of hit by pitches. This season, Youk has just tailed off after the All-Star break . The bad news is that Wily Mo had an OPS 61 points higher than the Sox first baseman since the break. OPS after the break: Crisp 0.778 Pedroia 0.831 Ortiz 0.936 Ramirez 0.956 Lowell 0....

August has left the Sox lead dwindling, an unpleasant melange of New York competence and Red Sox giveaway sales, led by the chief bullpen artists, the formerly stout bullpen. Let's start with the bright side, the Sox do have some potential longer-term players in Pawtucket, with Buchholz winning tonight with another nine strikeouts, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie both looking productive offensively...you can't tell from box scores how hard they are hitting the ball, only that they are finding some holes. Curt Schilling pitched well enough today...and Beckett and Matsuzaka have remained formidable throughout this summer siesta. 'Theo's Folly', the acquisitions of Lugo and Drew haven't looked so bad lately, and I wonder how many outfields had all starters recently with four-letter names (Pena, Drew, Moss). Dustin Pedroia remains a revelation, both offensively and defensively (an error today), and I owe a thousand 'my bads' to a player who could be a sub...

As the Red Sox move into the final fifty games or so of the regular season, Sox fans have questions, not only about this year, but the future. Theo Epstein has locked in some tough contracts (Drew, Lugo), has some veterans on the free agent train ( Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell ), and some minor league pieces to rearrange. Epstein and company have to decide (eventually) what direction to take. The two hottest minor league pitchers are Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson . Masterson fanned another ten in six innings today, and with an E.R.A. under 1.50 in six starts, and total domination, he's due for Pawtucket...soon. North Carolina product Andrew Miller is already in the Tigers' rotation. I'm not arguing for promotion of any of the Sox minor leaguers, but historically the Sox have been very conservative with young talent. What role do Buchholz and Masterson get this fall, if any? Kevin Youkilis is the 'wild card' positionally, as he could go back to third base, if ...

Eric Gagne checked into the Red Sox bullpen last night, but got time to adjust to his new circumstances. Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon looked the best he's looked in some time, hitting his spots on the 'natural corner' and touching 97 on the gun. Pap smeared the O's controlling both corners and got away with a splitter up on the leadoff hitter, and finished off the uber-talent Brian Roberts with splitters down. For those who say that Papelbon should be a starter, he'd really benefit from a third pitch if that were the case, and I doubt that he trusts his slider enough to use it regularly. Developing a cutter to righthanders or another offspeed pitch to lefthanders (e.g. Circle change) would be a must. Maybe having Gagne around will help in that regard. Meanwhile, for AAA Pawtucket, Clay Buchholz pitched over six innings of two run ball, fanning nine and walking none. Buchholz, in three AAA starts has an E.R.A. of 3.93, with 30 strikeouts and 6 walks. When you conside...

The Red Sox bolstered their bullpen trading David Murphy and Kason Gabbard and a low level prospect for Eric Gagne. Gagne gives the Sox additional experience in the bullpen, with questions about Mike Timlin's health, Brandon Donnelly to undergo tendon transfer (Tommy John) surgery, and Manny Delcarmen showing a little inconsistency lately. Gabbard, who rose from obscurity to outwin Roger Clemens (4 to 3) during his brief Sox tenure, became expendable with the return of Jon Lester and the pending return of Curt Schilling. Absent Kason, the Sox rotation will look like Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Wakefield, and Lester. Trade talks for Jermaine Dye fell through when the White Sox and Ken Williams demanded the sun, the moon, and one of Jupiter's moons for the soon-to-be free agent slugger. The Sox made this trade from strength, not desperation, which is a nice change. They did not give up (as far as we know) Ellsbury, Lowrie, or Moss, their top three position players. They also d...